证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 宏观与策略 宏观快评:2025 年 11 月财政数据快评-财政力度继续下滑 行业与公司 电新行业投资策略:风电行业 2026 年度投资策略-国内外有望迎来景气 共振，需求与格局变化催生新机遇 华住集团-S(01179.HK) 海外公司深度报告:本土酒店领军者的价值重构 进行时 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-18 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3876.37 | 13053.97 | 4552.79 | 13909.53 | 3778.05 | 1305.96 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.15 | -1.28 | -0.59 | -0.53 | -1.15 | -1.46 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7048.95 | 9505.87 | 3821.02 | 3314.68 | 4443.95 | 387.18 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 腾讯控股( ...

Macro and Strategy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November indicates a lukewarm job market, suggesting that conditions for interest rate cuts are not yet ripe. November saw an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4% [7]. Industry and Company - Recent regulatory policies on fund management are expected to have a long-term impact on the market, emphasizing a tool-oriented approach and potentially increasing style competition in the short term. The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of public fund management, linking the performance assessment of fund managers and sales personnel to investor interests [7]. - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is leveraging its overseas cloud and gaming businesses, with AI integration driving new growth engines. The company has expanded its cloud infrastructure globally, covering 22 regions, and is focusing on SaaS and PaaS services, particularly in Asia and the Middle East [8][9]. - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB in 2025, accounting for 32% of its total gaming revenue, driven by its industrialization capabilities and strategic acquisitions [9]. - Salesforce (CRM.N) reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products. The company also saw a significant rise in its remaining performance obligations, reaching $29.4 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [11][12]. Financial Engineering - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a narrowing of the discount on major contracts. As of December 17, 2025, the annualized discount rates for various index futures are as follows: IH at 0.29%, IF at 3.74%, IC at 4.69%, and IM at 9.94% [14][16]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 index stands at 2.11%, with a remaining yield of 0.16%, indicating a focus on dividend-paying stocks in the current market environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is accelerating its overseas business development, with cloud services and gaming as key growth areas, supported by AI capabilities and a strong focus on infrastructure [1] Group 1: Overseas Cloud Business - Tencent's cloud strategy is based on "infrastructure first," expanding data centers globally and covering 22 regions [2] - The company leverages its technological advantages and localized services to assist Chinese enterprises and local clients in overseas markets [2] - Tencent's focus is on SaaS and PaaS, with a relatively mild competitive landscape overseas, and it prioritizes internal chip reserves for model training [2] Group 2: Overseas Gaming Business - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 2025 revenue of 757 billion yuan, accounting for 32% of its gaming revenue [3] - The growth is attributed to Tencent's matured industrial capabilities and a collaborative approach with game development teams [3] - The company is successfully replicating its GaaS model globally, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging both domestic and international team strengths [3] Group 3: AI Empowerment in Gaming - AI tools are extensively used in game production, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs in various tasks [4] - AI applications are improving user retention through features like AI teammates and coaches [4] - Tencent holds a first-mover advantage in AI-native gaming, with ongoing developments in real-time scene generation and coherence [4] Investment Outlook - The overseas market is identified as a clear second growth curve for Tencent's gaming and cloud businesses, with prior strategic investments beginning to yield results [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 262.6 billion, 301.3 billion, and 345.4 billion yuan respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - Tencent's overseas cloud and gaming businesses are positioned as dual growth engines, with AI empowerment creating new growth opportunities. The company is focusing on infrastructure expansion and local service differentiation to enhance its competitive edge in the global market [3][8][21]. Summary by Sections Overseas Cloud Business - Tencent is adopting an "infrastructure-first" strategy, rapidly expanding its global data center footprint, currently covering 22 regions worldwide. The company has successfully migrated key clients like GoTo in Indonesia and Charoen Pokphand Group in Thailand, demonstrating its ability to penetrate the market with high cost-effectiveness and optimized architecture [3][6][9]. - The company plans significant investments in overseas cloud infrastructure, including $150 million in the Middle East and $500 million in Indonesia for new data centers [6]. Overseas Gaming Business - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31%. This growth is attributed to the maturation of Tencent's industrial capabilities and the long-term benefits of recent acquisitions [4][11]. - The company is increasingly collaborating with game development teams, enhancing its Game as a Service (GaaS) capabilities by leveraging domestic industrial efficiency alongside overseas creative strengths [4][16]. AI Empowerment in Gaming - AI tools are being utilized by 95% of employees in Tencent's Photon Studio, significantly improving game production efficiency. AI applications are enhancing user retention through features like AI teammates and coaches [5][17]. - Tencent is making strides in AI-native gaming, developing technologies that allow for real-time scene generation and improved gameplay experiences, although challenges remain in character behavior and coherence [18]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent are 262.6 billion yuan, 301.3 billion yuan, and 345.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [21][22].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive DAU achievement of "Metro Escape" mode in "Peace Elite," surpassing 37 million on May 1, indicating a strong market presence and potential for growth in the shooting game sector [1][3][4] - "Metro Escape" has established itself as a leading product in the new "search, fight, and retreat" genre, demonstrating the ability of established titles to adapt and thrive in changing market conditions [4][5][12] - The success of "Metro Escape" reflects a strategic shift towards more engaging gameplay experiences, appealing to both new and existing players, and signifies a potential new standard in the gaming industry [8][19][30] Summary by Sections DAU Performance and Market Position - "Metro Escape" achieved a DAU of over 37 million, leading the "search, fight, and retreat" genre and significantly outpacing other new titles [1][4] - The mode's success indicates a robust growth trajectory for established games that can pivot to new trends effectively [5][12] Gameplay Innovation - The "search, fight, and retreat" gameplay model enhances player experience by integrating strategy, character development, and resource management, making it appealing to younger audiences [8][9] - The mode's design focuses on accessibility and enjoyment, reducing barriers for new players while providing diverse gameplay options [24][27] Strategic Development and Market Trends - The article discusses how "Peace Elite" has leveraged its large user base to identify and capitalize on emerging gameplay trends, leading to sustained growth [11][12][15] - The introduction of "Metro Escape" in 2024 reflects a calculated response to market demands, showcasing the ability of established titles to innovate and adapt [12][19] Economic Impact and Community Engagement - The success of "Metro Escape" has driven significant engagement on social media platforms, with over 36.9 billion views on Douyin, indicating a thriving community around the game [33][35] - The mode has contributed to a resurgence in content creation related to "Peace Elite," enhancing its ecosystem and attracting new creators [35][36] Long-term Viability and Growth Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a dynamic product lifecycle, with "Metro Escape" exemplifying how established games can evolve to meet changing player expectations [17][19] - The success of "Metro Escape" is expected to have long-term positive effects on "Peace Elite," reinforcing its position in the competitive gaming landscape [36][39]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry is highly competitive, and a successful game can significantly impact a company's performance. Perfect World (002624.SZ) reported strong financial results, with a revenue increase of 52% year-on-year to 2.023 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 1115% to 302 million yuan in Q1 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - Perfect World achieved a revenue of 2.023 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 52% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 1115% to 302 million yuan, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 203% to 163 million yuan [1] - The stock price of Perfect World rose for three consecutive trading days following the earnings report, with a first-day increase of 6.35% and a total increase of 10.37% [1] Business Challenges and Adjustments - In 2024, Perfect World faced significant losses, reporting a net loss of 1.288 billion yuan due to underperforming games and film projects, as well as inventory impairment losses [4] - The company undertook a major internal restructuring to optimize its business and organizational structure, which included project cancellations and team adjustments [4] - Despite short-term impacts on performance, these adjustments are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [4] Key Product Launches - The launch of the game "Zhu Xian World" on December 19, 2024, generated over 400 million yuan in revenue within the first 30 days, marking a turning point for the company's performance [5] - In Q1 2025, the gaming segment generated 1.418 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 10.37%, with a net profit of 292 million yuan [5][6] - The company is focusing on long-term game operation strategies, emphasizing player feedback and continuous content updates to maintain user engagement [8] Future Prospects - Perfect World is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2025, driven by the release of new games and improved financial performance [9] - The upcoming game "Yihuan" is anticipated to be a significant product for the company, with positive market feedback from its initial testing phase [8][9] - The company is also expanding its overseas distribution plans for titles like "Persona: Nightfall" to enhance its international presence [9]