格隆汇1月7日｜据市场消息，英国正动用一笔设立于近100年前的慈善基金，以微弱之力削减其庞大的 国债。英国国债管理局（DMO）表示，将于周五利用"国家基金"（National Fund）的收益，注销价值 6.07亿英镑（约合8.19亿美元）的政府债券。该基金设立于1927年，最初目标是筹集足够的资金来彻底 清偿英国国债。DMO表示，此次注销的英国国债将于2027年1月到期，目前由管理此类捐赠的公共机 构"削减国债专员署"持有。这些债券是在上一财年从国家基金转账后购入的。按照某种衡量标准，英国 国债目前约为3万亿英镑，而二十年前仅为5,000亿英镑左右。债务的急剧增加促使官方决定提前从国家 基金中拨款，以偿还一小部分债务。 ...

施罗德投资环球无约束固定收益主管Julian Houdain表示，目前，美国经济"软着陆"的可能性仍然最高 (60%)。然而，现在认为经济"无着陆"和"硬着陆"的风险是平均的，这与之前略微偏向"硬着陆"的评估 有所不同。这一变化主要反映对美国经济数据的预期：一旦公布，短期内可能仍然表现稳健。企业信贷 方面，施罗德投资仍然相对偏好欧洲及美国投资级别债券。但整体而言，仍认为美国投资级别债券估值 吸引力欠佳，相对地不看好美国及欧洲高收益债券。 基于不明朗情况，施罗德投资的宏观情境概率及对全球存续期和主要固定收益次资产类别的观点在11月 并未发生重大变化。 除了10月份美联储议息会议后市场预期的转变，美国债券收益率在最近几周波动有限。这种情况并不意 外，鉴于缺乏官方美国经济数据，同时已公布的亦缺乏明确方向。投资者密切关注美国劳动力市场，而 目前有关短期前景的证据仍然有限且矛盾重重。总体而言，预计未来数月就业增长将有所稳定，但由于 短期内不确定性较高，准确把握时机仍然具有挑战性。 欧洲大陆的宏观环境在过去一个月内变化不大。对欧洲央行(ECB)的短期预期并不抱太大期待，但预计 2026年初可能会出现更偏鸽派的通胀情况，通 ...

Core Insights - The UK government remains heavily reliant on international investors for the purchase of its government bonds, indicating a significant dependence on foreign capital inflows [1] - Global factors are contributing to a continuous rise in borrowing costs, which may impact the overall financial stability and investment climate in the UK [1] Group 1 - The UK government is facing challenges in attracting domestic investment, leading to increased reliance on international markets [1] - Rising global borrowing costs could affect the government's ability to finance its debt effectively [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

英国央行降息无阻英镑上涨，因英国准备与美国达成贸易协议 金十数据5月8日讯，周四，在英国央行宣布了外界普遍预期的降息之后，英镑上涨。与此同时，英国正 准备与美国达成一项贸易协议。英国央行将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%，但由于特朗普的关税给全 球经济增长带来压力，政策制定者的投票结果出人意料地分成了三派。英镑兑美元日内上涨0.25%，报 1.3324，从利率决议前的日低1.3242反弹。英国富时指数涨幅小幅收窄。英国政府债券承压，英国10年 期国债收益率当日上涨3.5个基点，至4.491%。 ...