转自：北京日报客户端 年底是侵财案高发期，犯罪分子也打算捞一把回家过年。在防范不见面的电信网络诈骗的同时，那些在 街头巷尾上演的骗局同样不得不防。 "快递员"告诉李先生，耳机是物流异常的问题件，快递站低价处理。原价1000多，现在500元就卖，全 新没拆封。李先生听对方说得有鼻子有眼，耳机包装完整还有塑封，便贪了便宜，给对方转账500元买 了一个。过了些天，朋友发现李先生的耳机是假货，李先生才得知上当受骗。 顺着线索，警方陆续抓获十余名卖假耳机的骗子。办案民警介绍，这些人都是老乡，从网上以几十元的 价格购入假耳机，冒充快递员在街头随机挑选作案对象。这些假货也能正常使用，甚至有的还套用真货 的序列号，更具迷惑性。 民警告诉记者，在街头诈骗中，专有一类变卖贵重商品的骗局。有的冒充快递员变卖苹果耳机、手机， 有的冒充展销商，低价处理高档海鲜、茶叶，还有的装扮成建筑工人，出售挖地基时发现的出土"古 董"。实际上，这些贵重商品全是金玉其外、败絮其中的次品和假货，骗子就是抓住事主贪小便宜的心 理进行诈骗。 街头大师能掐会算？ 算命消灾骗局都是组团作案！ 记者从北京市公安局刑侦总队了解到，兜售假货和算命消灾是目前街头诈骗的 ...

Core Insights - The article presents a deep conversation with the renowned entrepreneur and investor Duan Yongping, focusing on his philosophy of "being true to oneself" and its application in business, investment, and personal development [6][7]. Investment Logic: Understanding Business is Key - Duan emphasizes that the core of investment is understanding the business, sharing insights from his experience buying stocks like NetEase and Moutai, highlighting the importance of business models and corporate culture in investment decisions [18][21][23]. Corporate Culture and Succession: Integrity, Rationality, and Long-term Vision - The success of companies like OPPO and vivo is attributed to their hiring principle of prioritizing cultural fit over mere capability, and the importance of a user-oriented culture that focuses on doing the right things over profit maximization [24][28][27]. Marketing Philosophy: Honesty and Efficient Communication - Duan advocates for a straightforward marketing approach that avoids any form of deception, emphasizing the need to communicate effectively with users [45][50]. Education Perspective: Security and Boundaries - He discusses the importance of providing unconditional love to children while establishing boundaries, arguing against physical punishment as a means of discipline [60][65][68]. Reflection on Luck, Effort, and Understanding - Duan reflects on the role of luck in success, asserting that while opportunities exist, they must be met with effort and understanding of one's field [69][71][72]. Insights on AI and the Future: Tool or Threat? - The conversation touches on the rapid development of AI, recognizing its potential to enhance efficiency while also questioning its long-term implications for society [80]. Long-term Mindset: The Essence of a Calm Heart - Duan defines a calm heart as rationality and long-term thinking, suggesting that maintaining a long-term perspective can help navigate external distractions and challenges [82].

今天的文章，我们继续聚焦段永平的最新动向。 段永平：那个时候，很多人说万科的一些问题，我说至少你们看到的东西应该大概率不是真的。因为我 觉得，王石给我的印象不是一个跑到小房间里跟财务商量怎么做假账的那种人。 做错是有可能，但是作假那是两回事儿。所以看你的财务数据，在当时来讲，我觉得这个价钱显然是便 宜了。当时我确实买了，后来涨很多就卖了，刚好那个时候碰到万科股价特别便宜的时候。 田朴珺：现在您还看好茅台吗？ 段永平：有什么理由不看好呢？当然，你要不喝酒很难理解这个问题，但是我有太多朋友喜欢喝茅台 了，所以我能够懂它这个生意。我觉得你有闲钱，买茅台肯定是比放银行好。但是有没有东西可以涨得 比茅台更多？肯定有...... 12月8日，在《共同说》第三季访谈中，段永平做客该节目，与王石、田朴珺展开一场深度对话，围绕 投资本质、企业文化、苹果公司、内卷与躺平、拼多多黄铮、人工智能等话题，分享了其通透且一以贯 之的核心理念。 这些观点虽早已为大众所熟知，却恰恰是他数十年来坚守的价值准则，尤其在当前市场波动加剧的背景 下，我们认为依然值得反复回味。 对此，证星研究院整理了本次访谈的精华，把要点分享给大家。 以下为主要内容 ...

Core Insights - The article features a rare in-depth conversation with the renowned entrepreneur and investor Duan Yongping, discussing his philosophy of "being true to oneself" and its application in business, investment, and personal development [3][4][6]. Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is the core of investment, sharing insights from his experience with companies like Apple and Moutai, highlighting the importance of business models and corporate culture in investment decisions [4][24][25]. Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and vivo is attributed to a hiring principle where cultural fit is prioritized over capability, and a systematic approach to identifying compatible partners over time [5][29][30]. Marketing Principles - Duan advocates for honesty in marketing, stating that communication with users should be efficient and truthful, which he believes is essential for building trust and brand loyalty [6][55]. Education Philosophy - He provides insights on parenting, arguing against physical punishment and advocating for unconditional love and boundary-setting to foster a sense of security in children [6][74][75]. Long-term Perspective - Duan defines a "calm mind" as rationality and long-term thinking, suggesting that maintaining a long-term perspective can lead to better decision-making in both business and life [6][92]. Reflections on Success - The conversation touches on the role of luck and effort in success, with Duan asserting that while luck plays a part, consistent effort and understanding one's business are crucial for achieving long-term success [6][78][82]. Insights from Buffett's Lunch - Duan shares a key takeaway from a lunch with Warren Buffett, emphasizing the importance of a company's business model and culture as filters for investment decisions [4][87][88]. AI and Future Perspectives - The discussion includes thoughts on AI, recognizing its potential to enhance efficiency while also acknowledging the uncertainties it brings to the future [6][90]. Philosophy of "Being True to Oneself" - Duan's overarching philosophy revolves around the concept of "being true to oneself," which he believes underpins both effective business strategies and a fulfilling life [6][93].

Core Viewpoint - Apple is undergoing a significant leadership transition as CEO Tim Cook approaches retirement, with speculation about his departure ranging from next year to 2028. This has sparked a competitive race among nine potential successors for the CEO position, amidst a backdrop of high-profile executive departures and a pressing need for strategic direction in the AI domain [2]. Group 1: Potential Successors - John Ternus, the leading candidate, has a strong hardware engineering background and has been instrumental in the development of key products like the iPad and iPhone. His leadership style is hands-on, but concerns exist about his ability to lead Apple into the AI era given his hardware focus [4][5]. - Sabih Khan, the new COO, has extensive experience in supply chain management and has played a crucial role in Apple's operational success. However, his age and pure operational background may limit his long-term viability as CEO, especially in the context of AI challenges [7]. - Craig Federighi, the senior vice president of software engineering, is well-known for his public presence and oversees Apple's operating systems. His software expertise could be advantageous as Apple integrates AI into its products, but his overall strategic vision remains uncertain [9]. - Eddy Cue, responsible for Apple's services, has transformed the services division into a significant revenue source. His non-technical background may hinder his candidacy in a tech-driven environment focused on innovation [11]. - Deirdre O'Brien, overseeing retail and HR, has deep insights into corporate culture and talent management. However, her retail focus may disadvantage her in a competition that favors technical or operational backgrounds [13]. - Greg Joswiak, the senior vice president of global marketing, has extensive experience in product launches and brand strategy. Yet, like O'Brien, his marketing background may not align with the technical demands of the CEO role [15]. - Kevin Palerick, the new CFO, brings a financial perspective and is relatively young, making him a strong candidate. However, his lack of direct product management experience could be a drawback [17][18]. - Johny Srouji, a key figure in Apple's chip development, holds significant technical authority. His potential departure could be detrimental to Apple, but his management capabilities remain in question [20]. - Jennifer Newstead, the new general counsel, has a strong legal background that could be valuable in navigating regulatory challenges. However, her candidacy may depend on the future focus of Apple's challenges [22]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The board's decision on the next CEO will not only determine the leadership style but also the strategic direction of Apple. Choosing Ternus may signify a continuation of hardware-focused strategies, while Federighi could lead a shift towards software and AI. Palerick's selection might indicate a more financially cautious approach [24]. - The ongoing executive turnover represents one of the most significant talent shifts in over a decade for Apple, which will impact its ability to compete effectively in the AI landscape. Investors are particularly concerned about whether this leadership change will facilitate breakthroughs in AI, an area where Apple currently lags behind competitors [24].

Core Insights - The conversation features a rare appearance by investor Duan Yongping, who discusses his "benfen" philosophy that underpins his business and investment practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding business fundamentals [1][2][66] - Duan Yongping shares insights on investment, corporate culture, and education, highlighting the significance of long-term thinking and rationality in both business and personal life [2][67] Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is crucial for successful investment, citing his experience with Vanke and the importance of recognizing true value in financial data [11][12] - He mentions that he bought shares in Moutai and believes in its long-term potential, suggesting that understanding consumer preferences is key to investment decisions [12][13] Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and Vivo is attributed to a hiring principle that prioritizes cultural fit over individual capability, indicating a systematic approach to building a cohesive team [2][66] - Duan discusses the importance of a user-oriented corporate culture that focuses on doing the right things over merely chasing profits, which he believes is essential for long-term sustainability [17][18] Marketing Philosophy - Duan outlines a straightforward marketing principle: there should be no lies in communication, and messages should be conveyed to users with maximum efficiency [2][66] - He shares his experience with advertising, emphasizing the need for authenticity and the careful crafting of messages to resonate with consumers [35][36] Educational Insights - Duan provides a perspective on parenting, advocating for unconditional love and setting boundaries to foster a sense of security in children, which he believes can break generational cycles of behavior [2][67] - He argues against physical punishment, suggesting that it does not build resilience but rather creates insecurity, and emphasizes the importance of guiding children with understanding [50][51] Long-term Mindset - Duan defines "平常心" (ordinary mind) as rationality and long-term thinking, asserting that maintaining a long-term perspective helps in overcoming external distractions [2][67] - He believes that a long-term approach is essential for both business success and personal fulfillment, creating a logical framework that connects various aspects of life [64]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent wave of layoffs in Silicon Valley, particularly in the tech sector, driven by the rise of AI and economic uncertainty, with major companies like Meta and Salesforce cutting thousands of jobs [1] - The conversation emphasizes the importance of human skills that AI cannot replicate, such as initiative, courage, and responsibility, which are seen as unique values in the AI era [1][26] - The discussion highlights the evolving roles of professionals, particularly in fields like medicine and technology, where AI is enhancing efficiency but not necessarily replacing jobs [4][19] Group 1: Impact of AI on Employment - Major tech companies have announced significant layoffs, with nearly 100,000 jobs cut globally in the tech sector this year due to AI and economic factors [1] - AI is particularly affecting entry-level positions, such as junior programmers, where companies are hiring fewer individuals due to AI's capabilities [4][13] - The role of experts is evolving, with a shift towards becoming "translators" between AI and human needs, rather than gatekeepers of knowledge [3] Group 2: Skills for the AI Era - Professionals are encouraged to enhance their understanding of business and develop a deep knowledge of their industry to maintain relevance [19] - The article suggests that humanities graduates should focus on influencing others and building a personal brand, as their skills in communication and perception are crucial [5][6] - Continuous reading and practical experience are emphasized as essential for developing leadership and critical thinking skills [6][7] Group 3: The Future of Knowledge Services - Knowledge service platforms must innovate and create a personal style to remain valuable in an AI-driven landscape [22][24] - The importance of community and personal expression in knowledge sharing is highlighted, as AI cannot replicate the emotional connection humans have [25] - The article suggests that traditional teaching methods may become less effective, with personalized AI interactions becoming the preferred learning method [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI on the job market, particularly in the tech industry, highlighting the need for individuals to develop unique skills and maintain their competitive edge in an AI-driven world [2][35]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Employment - A new wave of layoffs in Silicon Valley has seen major tech companies reduce junior tech positions, with Meta cutting 600 jobs and Salesforce replacing 4,000 customer service roles with AI [2]. - Nearly 100,000 jobs have been cut globally in the tech sector this year, driven by the rise of AI and economic uncertainty [2]. - The primary impact of AI is seen on junior programmers, with companies hiring fewer due to AI's capabilities, although the roles themselves remain as programmers still need to engage in tasks that AI cannot perform [8][20]. Group 2: Human Skills in the AI Era - The value of face-to-face communication and personal interactions is increasing as AI can easily summarize online information, making in-person exchanges more valuable [5]. - Experts are evolving into roles as "translators" between AI and humans, where their value lies in accurately conveying complex information rather than merely possessing knowledge [6]. - Humanities graduates are encouraged to focus on influencing others and building a personal brand, as their skills in persuasion and style become increasingly important [10][11]. Group 3: Strategies for Professionals - Professionals should enhance their understanding of business and industry nuances, as deep knowledge can create a competitive advantage [26][27]. - Building a public portfolio of work, such as code on GitHub or published articles, is essential for establishing credibility and visibility in the industry [28]. - Engaging in community activities and sharing knowledge can enhance personal reputation and job security, as industry recognition becomes crucial [25][28]. Group 4: The Future of Knowledge Services - Knowledge service platforms that facilitate community engagement will remain valuable, while traditional course-based platforms may struggle as AI offers personalized learning experiences [29][30]. - Knowledge providers must develop a unique perspective and be willing to express their opinions to stand out in a crowded market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation, highlighting six key investment areas for future growth in the economy [1][16]. Group 1: Semiconductor Manufacturing and Equipment - The demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes (7nm and below) is expected to grow significantly, with current domestic capacity accounting for less than 2% of total wafer foundry capacity, indicating over five times potential for expansion [6]. - Domestic wafer manufacturers are making progress in equipment supply, yield improvement, and customer expansion, with a global market share of 10% and a current equipment localization rate of about 20%, suggesting a 3-5 times growth potential for domestic equipment [6]. Group 2: New Energy System Construction - The construction of a new energy system is a critical future direction, focusing on increasing the share of renewable energy and enhancing the resilience of the power system [8]. - The new energy storage market is expected to grow rapidly, with a target of 180GW+ installed capacity by 2027, leading to direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Quantum Technology Development - Quantum computing offers significant advantages in specific applications, with the industry expected to see rapid growth by 2028-2030, particularly in quantum communication [10]. - China is prioritizing quantum technology in its future industrial layout, with leading companies already making strides in quantum communication [10]. Group 4: AI and Autonomous Control - The push for domestic hardware and software development is crucial, with significant improvements expected in foundational hardware and software capabilities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [11]. - The integration of AI across various sectors is anticipated to accelerate, with a goal of achieving over 70% application penetration by 2027 [11]. Group 5: Consumer Electronics and Domestic Demand Expansion - Consumer electronics, particularly those incorporating AI capabilities, are projected to become a significant investment focus in the next 2-3 years, with products like smartphones and AI glasses expected to see substantial demand growth [12][13]. - The market for AI-enabled consumer electronics is expected to expand, driven by innovations in product features and consumer engagement [12]. Group 6: AI and Cultural Content Creation - The integration of AI in creative industries is expected to enhance efficiency and lead to new product developments, with significant market opportunities for high-quality domestic content [14]. - The cultural sector is poised for growth, supported by government policies aimed at promoting cultural exports and the commercialization of AI-driven content [15].

Core Insights - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival is experiencing a peak, with Tmall officially starting sales and JD.com launching a super subsidy day. However, the national subsidy application process is tightening, impacting consumer participation [1][5]. Group 1: National Subsidy Overview - The Chinese government has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan for subsidies in 2023, with 69 billion yuan released in October as part of the fourth batch [1]. - The subsidy application rate is approximately 10% to 15%, indicating a significant reduction in accessibility for consumers [1][15]. - The national subsidy program has expanded from eight categories to fifteen, including new categories such as microwaves and smart devices, which has stimulated market activity [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Impact - The national subsidy has a multiplier effect, with every 1 yuan in subsidies potentially generating 3.5 to 4 yuan in consumer spending [3]. - Sales in categories like automobiles and home appliances have exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan due to the subsidy program, with projections indicating further growth [3]. - Consumers are increasingly resorting to creative methods to access subsidies, such as using addresses in cities with available funds, highlighting the challenges faced in the current subsidy environment [4][15]. Group 3: Changes in Subsidy Distribution - The distribution of subsidies has shifted to a more stringent process, including lottery systems and limited allocations, to combat fraud and misuse [5][13]. - Different regions have adopted varying methods for subsidy distribution, with some requiring consumers to register for eligibility before making purchases [11][13]. - The low success rate in obtaining subsidies (around 10% in many areas) is affecting consumer purchasing decisions during major sales events [15].