以下文章来源于DT商业观察 ，作者DT商业观察 DT商业观察 . 第一财经旗下年轻态财经商业媒体。关注消费、互联网、电商、文娱、科技、城市等领域，融合媒体和 研究机构的禀赋，厘清趋势和商业间的关系，用年轻化的视角认识商业世界。 当年轻人在给苹果手表"当牛马"，小孩也把智能手表玩出了花。 第一批冲击潮流前线的10后小孩哥，把儿童手表当作了技术外挂，出门看展、外出踏青都要走走拍拍，"提 前加入家庭摄影大军"。 我们好奇，眼下儿童智能手表的发展情况到底如何？消费者需要怎样的儿童智能手表？ 每三个儿童中，就有一个拥有智能手表 目前市面上的智能手表，根据使用者的年龄分为三类——成人、老年人和儿童智能手表，功能各有侧重。 成人智能手表主要用于健身辅助、随身办公、线上支付，在社交媒体上以"健身监督员"的身份出圈。老年人 智能手表侧重健康监测，相当于一个"健康守护员"。 而儿童智能手表主打精准定位、安全保障、视频通话等功能，核心功用相当于一台儿童"呼叫定位器"。 正是满足了随时能通话和定位的安全需求，儿童手表的市场渗透率在不断增加，并且增速很快。 根据中国产业研究院《2022-2027年中国儿童智能手表行业深度调研及投资前景 ...

慢守：十年重仓，熬出真价值 你发现没，段永平这两年重新走到公众面前，压根不是来蹭热度的，而是带着他的 "慢哲学" 给市场上 了堂大课。 作为手里攥着 825 亿元资产的大佬，他最让人佩服的地方，就是能沉得住气死磕到底。 拿茅台来说，他一持有就是十几年，2012 年塑化剂事件闹得行业鸡飞狗跳时，他敢抄底；2024 年白酒 行业又遇调整，他接着加仓。 就算到了 2025 年，茅台价格还在波动，他依然笃定得很："库存放着能变成年份酒增值，这商业模式压 根没坏"。 更让人意外的是苹果，2025 年二季度他逆势增持90 万股，手里持有的股份占比高达 62.47%，反观同期 巴菲特都在减持苹果，这对比简直鲜明。 说句实在话，这种 "慢" 可不是懒，而是看透了生意本质后的心里有底。他老挂在嘴边的 "买股票就是 买公司"，可不是随便说说。 他看懂了茅台的品牌壁垒有多硬，也摸透了苹果的生态有多能打，所以根本不会被短期股价的涨跌牵着 鼻子走。 就像 2025 年底，茅台都开始打响 "稳价保卫战" 了，2026 年要聚焦三大核心单品，非标产品还要减 量。 没完成的 2025 年配额也停止投放，这波操作直接让飞天茅台批价从 1485 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) industry is facing significant challenges, with many companies struggling to achieve profitability, as highlighted by the statement from Duan Yongping, a prominent investor in China [4][10]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Duan Yongping emphasizes that while the automotive industry has value, it is difficult to turn it into a "good business" due to intense competition and product homogenization [6][14]. - The automotive sector has historically experienced a high level of product similarity, which has led to fierce competition and a lack of unique selling propositions [14][18]. - The transition from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles may exacerbate these challenges, as the EV market is predicted to become increasingly homogeneous [15][18]. Group 2: Business Model Insights - A strong business model requires differentiation, which is currently lacking in the automotive industry, making it hard for companies to establish a competitive moat [12][14]. - Duan Yongping argues that the automotive industry is at risk of falling into a price war, which can undermine long-term profitability and innovation [20][21]. - Companies need to focus on creating unique value propositions rather than competing solely on price, as this can lead to a race to the bottom [20][21]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - To transform the automotive business into a sustainable venture, companies should concentrate their efforts and resources rather than diversifying too broadly [22][24]. - The single product model, exemplified by companies like Apple, allows for focused resource allocation and can lead to superior product quality and customer loyalty [26][29]. - Companies should explore the potential of electric vehicles as platforms for additional services, leveraging the time consumers spend in their vehicles to create new revenue streams [32][36]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the automotive industry may hinge on the ability to innovate beyond traditional vehicle sales, potentially integrating software and services that enhance user experience [32][36]. - Duan Yongping's evolving views on electric vehicles and autonomous driving reflect a broader trend of adapting to new market realities and consumer behaviors [37][39].

文 | 新质动能，作者 | 沐风，编辑 | 时楠 在投资圈，段永平几乎是一个"神话"般的存在，被誉为"中国巴菲特"。近些年来，他隐居美国，每天打 打球、炒炒股，看上去闲云野鹤、不问世事。 不过，江湖上总有段永平的传说。他的持仓变化，总是被外界津津乐道。特别是今年以来，段永平在 AI圈的投资，总是撩动着市场的神经： 2025年二季度，他疯狂加仓英伟达、谷歌，被外界称为"AI信仰充值"；到了三季度，他又反手减持英伟 达，转头加仓了光刻机巨头ASML。他嘴上说着"对AI没看太懂"，身体却诚实地在资本市场上低吸高 抛。 他在公开场合多次表示："对AI还是没看太懂，但至少掺和一下，别错过。"这话听着像是在凡尔赛，其 实是他"理性参与"哲学的体现。 另一边是他的门徒们，在AI赛道上杀红了眼。拼多多的黄峥、OPPO的陈明永、vivo的沈炜、小天才的 金志江，苏州步步高张源.....他们正在各自的领域，把AI当成核心引擎，构建起一个庞大的"AI江湖"。 那么，这背后到底藏着什么样的商业逻辑？ 段永平的AI"哲学" 我们先看段永平，他对AI的态度看似矛盾，实则透着极深的投资智慧。 在美股的操作上，段永平是一个"价值投资者"。他 ...

Core Insights - The article presents a deep conversation with the renowned entrepreneur and investor Duan Yongping, focusing on his philosophy of "being true to oneself" and its application in business, investment, and personal development [6][7]. Investment Logic: Understanding Business is Key - Duan emphasizes that the core of investment is understanding the business, sharing insights from his experience buying stocks like NetEase and Moutai, highlighting the importance of business models and corporate culture in investment decisions [18][21][23]. Corporate Culture and Succession: Integrity, Rationality, and Long-term Vision - The success of companies like OPPO and vivo is attributed to their hiring principle of prioritizing cultural fit over mere capability, and the importance of a user-oriented culture that focuses on doing the right things over profit maximization [24][28][27]. Marketing Philosophy: Honesty and Efficient Communication - Duan advocates for a straightforward marketing approach that avoids any form of deception, emphasizing the need to communicate effectively with users [45][50]. Education Perspective: Security and Boundaries - He discusses the importance of providing unconditional love to children while establishing boundaries, arguing against physical punishment as a means of discipline [60][65][68]. Reflection on Luck, Effort, and Understanding - Duan reflects on the role of luck in success, asserting that while opportunities exist, they must be met with effort and understanding of one's field [69][71][72]. Insights on AI and the Future: Tool or Threat? - The conversation touches on the rapid development of AI, recognizing its potential to enhance efficiency while also questioning its long-term implications for society [80]. Long-term Mindset: The Essence of a Calm Heart - Duan defines a calm heart as rationality and long-term thinking, suggesting that maintaining a long-term perspective can help navigate external distractions and challenges [82].

今天的文章，我们继续聚焦段永平的最新动向。 段永平：那个时候，很多人说万科的一些问题，我说至少你们看到的东西应该大概率不是真的。因为我 觉得，王石给我的印象不是一个跑到小房间里跟财务商量怎么做假账的那种人。 做错是有可能，但是作假那是两回事儿。所以看你的财务数据，在当时来讲，我觉得这个价钱显然是便 宜了。当时我确实买了，后来涨很多就卖了，刚好那个时候碰到万科股价特别便宜的时候。 田朴珺：现在您还看好茅台吗？ 段永平：有什么理由不看好呢？当然，你要不喝酒很难理解这个问题，但是我有太多朋友喜欢喝茅台 了，所以我能够懂它这个生意。我觉得你有闲钱，买茅台肯定是比放银行好。但是有没有东西可以涨得 比茅台更多？肯定有...... 12月8日，在《共同说》第三季访谈中，段永平做客该节目，与王石、田朴珺展开一场深度对话，围绕 投资本质、企业文化、苹果公司、内卷与躺平、拼多多黄铮、人工智能等话题，分享了其通透且一以贯 之的核心理念。 这些观点虽早已为大众所熟知，却恰恰是他数十年来坚守的价值准则，尤其在当前市场波动加剧的背景 下，我们认为依然值得反复回味。 对此，证星研究院整理了本次访谈的精华，把要点分享给大家。 以下为主要内容 ...

Core Insights - The conversation features a rare appearance by investor Duan Yongping, who discusses his "benfen" philosophy that underpins his business and investment practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding business fundamentals [1][2][66] - Duan Yongping shares insights on investment, corporate culture, and education, highlighting the significance of long-term thinking and rationality in both business and personal life [2][67] Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is crucial for successful investment, citing his experience with Vanke and the importance of recognizing true value in financial data [11][12] - He mentions that he bought shares in Moutai and believes in its long-term potential, suggesting that understanding consumer preferences is key to investment decisions [12][13] Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and Vivo is attributed to a hiring principle that prioritizes cultural fit over individual capability, indicating a systematic approach to building a cohesive team [2][66] - Duan discusses the importance of a user-oriented corporate culture that focuses on doing the right things over merely chasing profits, which he believes is essential for long-term sustainability [17][18] Marketing Philosophy - Duan outlines a straightforward marketing principle: there should be no lies in communication, and messages should be conveyed to users with maximum efficiency [2][66] - He shares his experience with advertising, emphasizing the need for authenticity and the careful crafting of messages to resonate with consumers [35][36] Educational Insights - Duan provides a perspective on parenting, advocating for unconditional love and setting boundaries to foster a sense of security in children, which he believes can break generational cycles of behavior [2][67] - He argues against physical punishment, suggesting that it does not build resilience but rather creates insecurity, and emphasizes the importance of guiding children with understanding [50][51] Long-term Mindset - Duan defines "平常心" (ordinary mind) as rationality and long-term thinking, asserting that maintaining a long-term perspective helps in overcoming external distractions [2][67] - He believes that a long-term approach is essential for both business success and personal fulfillment, creating a logical framework that connects various aspects of life [64]

Core Insights - The "Little Genius" smartwatch has evolved from a simple communication and location device into a social currency among children, with features that allow adding friends, liking posts, and even trading accounts [1][2] - The social dynamics within the "Little Genius" ecosystem are driven by a unique "like" system, where the number of likes on a profile serves as a status indicator among peers [2][4] Group 1: Social Dynamics - The smartwatch's primary functions include calling and location tracking, but its appeal lies in the "light touch friend addition" feature, which allows users to connect easily [2] - Users are categorized by levels that determine their daily liking capacity, creating a competitive environment where higher-level users can gain more influence [2][4] - A user named Xiangxiang noted that accounts with over 600,000 likes are considered "big shots," requiring significant time investment to achieve such status [2][4] Group 2: Emerging Business Models - The rise of the "Little Genius" social circle has led to the emergence of small businesses offering services like account management and video creation for a fee of 30-50 yuan per week [4][7] - Accounts with high like counts are being sold on platforms like Xianyu, with prices ranging from 416 yuan for 610,000 likes to 1,200 yuan for 1,250,000 likes [7][11] Group 3: Legal and Ethical Concerns - Legal experts have raised concerns about the potential violations of the Minor Protection Law, emphasizing that the smartwatch's features may encourage unhealthy competition and prolonged usage among children [12] - The company is urged to implement monitoring and control measures to prevent harmful behaviors associated with account trading and like manipulation, or face potential legal repercussions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex social dynamics and commercial activities surrounding the "小天才" (Little Genius) children's smartwatch, highlighting issues such as virtual transactions, social status, and the prevalence of scams and cyberbullying among its young users [2][5][33]. Group 1: Social Dynamics - The "小天才" smartwatch has become a status symbol among children, with users needing a significant number of likes (starting from 600,000) to be recognized as "大佬" (big shots) in the community [3][4]. - The community is primarily composed of children from affluent families, with many parents being professionals such as civil servants or academics [4][5]. - The culture surrounding the smartwatch has led to a social hierarchy where children without the device may feel excluded from peer groups [5][17]. Group 2: Commercial Activities - Young users engage in various commercial activities, including selling "bot" services to artificially inflate likes on their profiles, with some earning substantial amounts during peak seasons [6][7]. - The market for virtual goods related to the smartwatch is thriving, with transactions for accounts with high likes being common, and services for account management and content creation being offered [10][12]. - The article notes that the "小天才" ecosystem has fostered a form of "light entrepreneurship" among children, creating a unique marketplace driven by social media dynamics [13][33]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The article highlights the risks associated with the smartwatch's social network, including scams, cyberbullying, and exposure to inappropriate content, which have become prevalent issues [5][33]. - Young users often engage in risky behaviors, such as sharing personal information and participating in online harassment, reflecting a lack of understanding of the consequences [18][33]. - The article mentions that regulatory measures are being considered to address these issues, as the original purpose of the smartwatch—to ensure safety and communication—has been overshadowed by its entertainment features [34][35]. Group 4: Market Position - "小天才" holds a dominant position in the children's smartwatch market, with a market share of 35.3% and a year-on-year growth of 47.6%, significantly outpacing industry averages [22]. - The brand's success is attributed to its unique social features that differentiate it from competitors, making it a preferred choice among children and parents alike [9][24]. - The article notes that the increasing complexity of the social dynamics and commercial activities surrounding the smartwatch may lead to further challenges in maintaining a healthy ecosystem for its young users [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of the "Xiaotianzi" smartwatch among children, highlighting its role in creating a social hierarchy and commercial ecosystem among young users, leading to both opportunities and risks in the digital landscape [6][9][21]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Xiaotianzi holds a 35.3% market share in the children's smartwatch sector, with a year-on-year growth of 47.6%, significantly outpacing the industry average [21]. - The brand has established itself as a status symbol among middle-class families, with many parents opting for it to ensure their children's safety and communication needs [8][17]. - The average age of prominent users, referred to as "big shots," ranges from 11 to 17 years, indicating a young demographic heavily engaged in social media dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Social and Commercial Ecosystem - The Xiaotianzi smartwatch has fostered a culture where children engage in "like" trading, creating a marketplace for services such as "like bots" and account management, which are often operated by minors [10][12][13]. - Users can earn money through various means, including selling "likes" and managing accounts, with some young entrepreneurs reportedly earning over 60,000 yuan in a year [10][12]. - The competitive nature of gaining likes has led to a significant increase in the threshold for being recognized as a "big shot," now requiring at least 800,000 likes [18][21]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The article highlights the darker side of this ecosystem, including issues of online bullying, scams, and inappropriate content, which have emerged as children navigate this digital space [8][18][28]. - Parents often face challenges in monitoring their children's activities, leading to conflicts and even legal issues when transactions occur without parental consent [15][31]. - The increasing complexity of the social dynamics and the potential for exploitation have prompted calls for stricter regulations and oversight in the children's smartwatch market [31][32].