Q&A 如何看待东鹏特饮的成长空间？ 东鹏饮料 20250828 摘要 东鹏特饮通过性价比优势吸引价格敏感型消费者，推动能量饮料行业整 体需求增长，预计 2025 年仍保持 25%以上增速，未来在达到 200 亿 销售额后仍有 10%-15%增长潜力。 补水啦电解质水凭借低价策略，市场规模乐观估计可达 70-80 亿元，但 均价低于脉动；果汁茶市场竞争激烈，面临康师傅和统一冰红茶的压力， 但仍具成长潜力。 东鹏饮料积极布局平台化公司，尝试茶饮、有糖/无糖产品、保健水、电 解质水和能量饮料等多个赛道，关注规模较大且竞争格局相对宽松的领 域。 能量饮料市场竞争对手为华彬红牛，电解质水市场包括脉动等品牌，东 鹏凭借渠道和生产效率优势，通过性价比产品抢占市场份额。 即饮咖啡市场受消费者习惯和连锁咖啡店竞争影响，发展受限，但东鹏 可通过高性价比策略与星巴克等品牌竞争。 原材料成本下降曾改善龙头公司毛利率，但 2025 年行业竞争加剧和费 用投放增加可能导致盈利改善放缓，长期盈利空间存在不确定性。 预计东鹏特饮 2026 年归母净利润约为 60 亿元，对应当前估值下 26.5 倍市盈率，在流动性充裕和成长性环境下，估值具 ...

当其他饮料巨头们在一线城市的核心商超激烈厮杀时，东鹏饮料另辟蹊径，用十年时间深耕渠道，悄然编织起一张覆盖全国超 420万个终端的庞大销售网络。这张巨网触角遍及神州大地——从人迹罕至的雪域高原到潮湿闷热的热带渔村，从川流不息的高 速服务区到热血沸腾的电竞场馆。 然而，东鹏的野心远不止于物理空间的覆盖。在至关重要的"场景渗透"战役中，它同样展现出惊人的敏锐与执行力，绝未"落 下"半步。 东鹏饮料正加速布局一场场景革命：从单一爆款驱动，向构建多品类生态、打造专属生态位全面转型。在核心大单品"东鹏特 饮"持续领跑功能饮料市场、实现稳健增长的同时，公司正积极布局多元化产品矩阵，精准切入新兴消费趋势与细分赛道，旨在 终端市场构筑起独树一帜、难以撼动的品牌生态位。 以"补水啦"电解质水为代表，东鹏敏锐捕捉到运动健康、科学补水的消费升级浪潮，迅速切入这一高速增长赛道；"果之茶"则 瞄准了年轻消费者对清爽果味与即饮茶饮的融合需求，丰富了品牌的休闲饮品属性；而无糖特饮的推出，更是直击日益壮大的 健康控糖人群，为核心品牌注入新活力。 东鹏饮料最新发布的2025年半年报显示，公司已构建覆盖全国、深度下沉的立体化渠道网络，拥有 320 ...

Group 1: Childcare Subsidy Implementation - The "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" was officially announced on July 28, 2025, with subsidies starting from January 1, 2025, for children under three years old, amounting to 3,600 yuan per child per year [1] - The plan is expected to benefit over 20 million families annually, with local governments also introducing their own subsidy measures [1] - For example, Hubei Ezhou will extend subsidies to non-talent families, while Shaanxi Yulin will implement a combined "one-time + annual subsidy" model for families with multiple children [1] Group 2: Corporate Actions in Response to Subsidies - Companies like Feihe and Yili are launching their own maternity subsidies, with Yili announcing a 1.6 billion yuan subsidy plan, providing at least 1,600 yuan per household [2] - Feihe has also introduced a subsidy plan with a minimum of 1,500 yuan per household [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - The infant formula market is experiencing polarization, driven by high-end products, with ultra-high-end products capturing 33.2% of the market share [3] - Companies like Feihe, FrieslandCampina, Danone, and Nestlé are maintaining growth in high-end products, while Mengniu's milk powder business is declining [3] - Feihe expects a revenue decline of 8% to 10% in the first half of the year due to reduced purchasing demand from the introduction of maternity subsidies [4] Group 4: Implications for the Maternal and Infant Market - The increasing subsidies are likely to further drive the high-end trend in the maternal and infant market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to be within -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a valuation shift during the earnings window, with a focus on opportunities in undervalued stocks and potential rebounds following recent corrections [4][11]. - The SW food and beverage index increased by 0.8%, ranking 26th among 31 sub-industries, with notable gains in the liquor, health products, and beer sectors, while soft drinks and dairy products saw declines [4][11]. - The report highlights the rebound in the liquor sector, particularly the SW liquor index, which rose by 1.41%, suggesting a recovery from previous overly pessimistic expectations [16][20]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [20]. - Key brands such as Guizhou Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for investment due to their stable pricing and market performance [20][23]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is facing a correction due to downward adjustments in earnings expectations for leading companies, particularly in soft drinks and snacks [21]. - Innovative product launches in the snack segment are highlighted, with companies like Youyou Foods and Weidong introducing new items to capture market share [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in ready-to-drink beverages and the increasing competition in the tea drink market, with a positive outlook for brands like Mixue and Gu Ming [21][22]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy rating with expected EPS growth [23] - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold rating with stable performance [23] - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy rating with significant revenue growth forecast [22][23] - Youyou Foods: Buy rating with strong market recovery potential [23] - Nongfu Spring: Buy rating with expected market share recovery [23]