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2026年1月固定收益投资策略:转债市场研判及“十强转债”组合
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-31 15:22
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry's investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bullish on the equity market during the "Spring Rally". With the expected strengthening of underlying stocks and seasonal effects, there is a slight room for convertible bond valuations to increase. When selecting bonds, focus on the performance elasticity of the underlying stocks. For near - maturity convertible bonds, consider participating in the underlying stocks [27]. - In the stock market, in December 2025, the risk appetite was high. Looking ahead, the RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and with the end of the year - end ranking assessment of financial institutions, the "Spring Rally" is expected to gradually kick off. In January, if the market adjusts during the intensive performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips and focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - In the convertible bond market, in December 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high since July 2015. Although the share of convertible bond ETFs continued to decline, the market premium rate increased. In the future, due to seasonal effects, some institutional investors may gradually increase their positions in January, and convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement [27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 December Convertible Bond Market Review - **Stock and Bond Market Review**: In December, the equity market fluctuated upwards, and the bond market generally fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose for nearly 10 consecutive trading days in the middle and late - December, closing at 3963.68 on December 26, with a monthly increase of 1.27%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.838% on December 26, up 0.10bp from the beginning of the month, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.223%, up 3.32bp from the beginning of the month [4][8]. - **Convertible Bond Market Review**: The convertible bond market generally rose following the equity market. The premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges increased, but convertible bond ETFs continued to face outflow pressure. Five convertible bonds announced downward revisions, one more than the previous month, and 10 convertible bonds announced forced redemptions, two less than the previous month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 493.2 on December 26, up 2.31% [5][8]. - **Industry Performance**: In the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as national defense and military industry (+12.25%), communication (+10.55%), and non - bank finance (+8.27%) performed well, while sectors such as media (-4.77%), banks (-3.68%), and coal (-3.62%) declined [8]. 3.2 2026 January Convertible Bond Allocation Strategy - **Stock Market Outlook**: The RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and the "Spring Rally" is expected to start. In January, if the market adjusts during the performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips. Focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - **Convertible Bond Outlook**: Due to seasonal effects, some institutions may increase their positions in January. Convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement. When selecting bonds, relative - return funds should focus on high - probability sectors with a high - beta underlying stocks, and absolute - return funds should focus on high - odds sectors [27][28]. - **Bond Selection Suggestions**: For relative - return funds, focus on sectors such as lithium - battery materials, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, high - quality auto parts, anti - involution industries, and securities. For absolute - return funds, focus on industry leaders with low valuations, sectors such as pig farming, power, and water supply, and convertible bond debt - to - equity conversion [28]. 3.3 2026 January "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" Portfolio | Convertible Bond Code | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Balance (Billion Yuan) | Convertible Bond Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Parity (Yuan) | Conversion Premium Rate (%) | Rating | Recommendation Reason | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113043.SH | Caitong Convertible Bond | Caitong Securities | Securities II | 37.99 | 133.52 | 109.71 | 21.70 | AAA | The securities sector will see a double - hit of valuation and profit in a bull market [30]. | | 123254.SZ | EVE Convertible Bond | EVE Energy | Battery | 49.98 | 167.64 | 134.65 | 24.51 | AA+ | The demand for energy storage is strong, and the shipment volume in the third quarter increased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [30]. | | 113695.SH | Huachen Convertible Bond | Jiangsu Huachen | Power Grid Equipment | 4.60 | 160.16 | 122.10 | 31.17 | A+ | The company's new production capacity is put into operation just as the demand for energy storage is growing rapidly [30]. | | 113634.SH | Proya Convertible Bond | Proya | Cosmetics | 7.51 | 125.13 | 70.36 | 77.83 | AA | As a domestic beauty leader, its brand and product strength are outstanding, and its valuation at a historical low is expected to be restored [30]. | | 113616.SH | Will Semiconductor Convertible Bond | Will Semiconductor | Semiconductor | 24.32 | 124.07 | 78.35 | 58.36 | AA+ | The company is accelerating its introduction into intelligent driving and emerging markets and has launched new mobile phone products with strong competitiveness [30]. | | 118040.SH | Hongwei Convertible Bond | Hongwei Technology | Semiconductor | 4.30 | 149.72 | 116.17 | 28.88 | A | Power semiconductors benefit from the growth of power supply and energy storage demand [30]. | | 113674.SH | Huashe Convertible Bond | Huashe Group | Engineering Consulting Service II | 4.00 | 129.29 | 89.47 | 44.51 | AA | As a leader in infrastructure design, its main business is stabilizing, and intelligent design and low - altitude economy provide growth points [30]. | | 123222.SZ | Bojun Convertible Bond | Bojun Technology | Auto Parts | 2.44 | 224.63 | 194.72 | 15.36 | A+ | The growth of customer sales and the increase in ASP per vehicle drive up revenue and profit [30]. | | 113666.SH | Aima Convertible Bond | Aima Technology | Motorcycle and Others | 19.99 | 125.11 | 79.63 | 57.12 | AA | The new national standard may promote the market share of the two - wheeled vehicle leader [30]. | | 123247.SZ | Wankai Convertible Bond | Wankai New Materials | Plastics | 19.64 | 172.30 | 150.18 | 14.73 | AA | Under the "anti - involution" of bottle chips, the processing fee is expected to stabilize, and the company is entering the rPET blue - ocean market [30]. |
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251217
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-17 07:55
New Stock Issuance - New stock listing for Muxi Co., Ltd. at an issuance price of 104.66 CNY[1] Tender Offer Periods - Tender offer period for Quanyin High-Tech from December 4, 2025, to January 5, 2026[1] - Tender offer period for Tianpu Co., Ltd. from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] Delisting and Trading Alerts - Guandao Co. is in the delisting arrangement period with 10 trading days remaining[1] - Suwu Co. is in the delisting arrangement period with 8 trading days remaining[1] Stock Price Fluctuations - Significant abnormal fluctuation reported for Guosheng Technology with a price of 0 CNY[1] - Abnormal fluctuation reported for *ST Yanzhen with a price of 81 CNY[3] - Abnormal fluctuation reported for Guangxi Broadcasting with a price of 61 CNY[3]
财通证券:关于实施 2025 年前三季度权益分派时“财通转债”停止转股的提示性公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-10 14:52
证券日报网讯 12月10日晚间,财通证券发布公告称,因实施2025年前三季度权益分派,自2025年12月 16日至权益分派股权登记日期间,"财通转债"将停止转股。 (文章来源:证券日报) ...
财通证券股份有限公司 关于“财通转债”2025年付息事宜的公告
1、债券名称:财通证券股份有限公司2020年可转换公司债券。 2、债券简称:财通转债。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 财通证券股份有限公司于2020年12月10日发行的财通证券股份有限公司可转换公司债券(以下简称"可转 债")将于2025年12月10日开始支付自2024年12月10日至2025年12月9日期间的利息。根据本公司《财通 证券股份有限公司公开发行A股可转换公司债券募集说明书》有关条款的规定,现将有关事项公告如 下: 一、本期债券的基本情况 3、债券代码:113043。 4、发行总额:本次发行的可转债总额为人民币38亿元。每张面值100元,按面值发行,发行数量为 3,800万张。 5、债券期限:本次发行的可转债期限为发行之日起六年,即2020年12月10日至2026年12月9日。 6、债券利率:本次发行可转债票面利率为:第一年0.2%,第二年0.4%,第三年0.6%,第四年1.0%,第 五年2.0%,第六年2.5%。 7、付息方式:本次发行的可转债采用每年付息一次的付息方式,到期归还 ...
【中国银河固收】转债策略更新 | 权益市场震荡冲高,风格切回稳健低波
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 11:37
Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of three investment strategies: Low Price Enhancement, Improved Dual Low, and High Price High Elasticity, which recorded returns of 1.3%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively during the last period, outperforming the benchmark return of 0.3% [1] - Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 17.4%, 28.2%, and 52.2%, with cumulative excess returns of 0.3%, 11.2%, and 35.2% compared to the benchmark return of 17.0% [1] - The equity market experienced fluctuations, with the Wind All A and CSI Convertible Bonds rising by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a resurgence of low volatility strategies [1] Low Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Jinggong Convertible Bond (Construction Decoration), Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank), and Yangfeng Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) among others [2] - The adjustment rationale is based on the strong performance of the low price index (1.4%) and the resurgence of low volatility strategies, with a focus on stable or improving performance and reasonable premium rates [3] Improved Dual Low Strategy - The latest holdings feature new entries like Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank) and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (Environmental Protection) [4] - Adjustments were made due to the upward movement of the dual low index (0.4%), with a focus on stocks with improved performance or stable operations while avoiding those with high redemption progress [5] High Price High Elasticity Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Wankai Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Shuiyang Convertible Bond (Beauty Care) [6] - The strategy's adjustments were influenced by the decline in high price index returns (-1.5%) and the need to manage redemption risks while maintaining a balanced industry allocation [7]
400亿券商,正式聘任总经理!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-10-29 12:53
Core Viewpoint - The board of directors of Caitong Securities has appointed Ying Chaohui as the new general manager, effective immediately, following the retirement of the previous general manager, Huang Weijian [1][4]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Ying Chaohui, born in 1976, previously served as the chairman of Zhejiang Guarantee Group, a subsidiary of Caitong Securities' controlling shareholder [1][3]. - The appointment was approved during a board meeting, and Ying's term will last until the current board's term ends [1][4]. - Ying possesses the necessary qualifications and experience for the role, with no disqualifications under relevant laws and regulations [3]. Group 2: Background of Ying Chaohui - Ying holds a Master's degree in Business Administration and has held various positions in financial institutions, including roles at Zhejiang Rural Credit Union and Zhejiang Rural Commercial Bank [3]. - Prior to his current role, Ying was the secretary of the party committee and chairman of Zhejiang Guarantee Group, which is fully owned by Zhejiang Innovation Investment Group, the controlling shareholder of Caitong Securities [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Caitong Securities reported significant growth in its financial performance, with Q3 revenue reaching 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.58%, and net profit of 954 million yuan, up 75.10% [4]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 5.063 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.99% increase, while net profit was 2.038 billion yuan, up 38.42% [4]. - As of the end of Q3, the company's net assets amounted to 37.419 billion yuan, and the Caitong convertible bonds are set to mature on December 10, 2026, with a current scale of 3.8 billion yuan [4].
财通证券董事会同意聘任应朝晖为公司总经理
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-10-29 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The board of directors of Caitong Securities has appointed Ying Zhaohui as the new general manager, effective immediately, following the retirement of the previous general manager [2][5]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Ying Zhaohui, born in 1976, previously served as the chairman of Zhejiang Guarantee Group, a subsidiary of Caitong Securities' controlling shareholder [2][4]. - The board meeting approved the appointment of Ying Zhaohui as general manager, with his term lasting until the current board's term ends [2][4]. - Ying Zhaohui has the necessary qualifications and experience for the role, with no disqualifications under relevant laws and regulations [4]. Group 2: Background of Ying Zhaohui - Ying Zhaohui holds a Master's degree in Business Administration and has held various positions in financial institutions, including roles at Zhejiang Rural Credit Union and Zhejiang Rural Commercial Bank [4]. - Prior to his appointment, he was the party secretary and chairman of Zhejiang Guarantee Group, which is fully owned by Zhejiang Innovation Investment Group, the controlling shareholder of Caitong Securities [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Caitong Securities reported significant growth in its Q3 2025 financial results, with total operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.58%, and a net profit of 954 million yuan, up 75.10% [6]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total operating revenue reached 5.063 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.99% increase, while net profit was 2.038 billion yuan, a 38.42% rise [6]. - As of the end of Q3, the company's net assets amounted to 37.419 billion yuan, and the Caitong convertible bonds are set to mature on December 10, 2026, with a current scale of 3.8 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Market Reaction - On October 29, Caitong Securities' stock price increased by 2.36%, closing at 8.69 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.35 billion yuan [7].
400亿券商,正式聘任总经理!
中国基金报· 2025-10-29 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The board of directors of Caitong Securities has appointed Ying Chaohui as the new general manager, effective immediately, following the retirement of the previous general manager, Huang Weijian [2][5]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Ying Chaohui, born in March 1976, has a Master's degree in Business Administration and has held various significant positions in the financial sector, including Chairman of Zhejiang Guarantee Group [4][5]. - The appointment was approved unanimously by the board, and Ying meets all necessary qualifications and has no disqualifications under relevant laws and regulations [4][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - Caitong Securities reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2025, with total operating revenue reaching 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.58%, and net profit of 954 million yuan, up 75.10% [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total operating revenue was 5.063 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.99%, while net profit increased by 38.42% to 2.038 billion yuan [5]. - As of the end of Q3, the equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 37.419 billion yuan, and the company’s convertible bonds are set to mature on December 10, 2026, with a current scale of 3.8 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Ying Chaohui's appointment, Caitong Securities' stock price rose by 2.36%, closing at 8.69 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.35 billion yuan [6].
势如破竹,固收加规模强势增长
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to grow, and the inflow of funds was expected to continue due to the bond market under - allocation and the upward movement of equities. Convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds still had strong support [4][6]. - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions on the whole. The behavior of brokers was different from that of public funds and insurance funds, with brokers more likely to increase positions in a bull market and the latter reducing positions when the convertible bond valuation was high [10][12]. - Public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds and sought bottom - position substitutes. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Growth of Fixed - Income Plus Fund Shares with Market Support - In Q2 2025, fixed - income plus funds had a net subscription of 56.41 billion shares. Among them, first - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 52.548 billion shares, second - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 7.774 billion shares, and partial - debt hybrid funds had a net redemption of 3.68 billion shares, with the net redemption volume further decreasing compared to Q1 2025. Convertible bond funds had a net redemption of 2.164 billion shares, slightly higher than that in Q1 2025 but with relatively low net redemption pressure compared to Q4 2024 [4][6]. - In Q2 2025, the positions of convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds in equity - related assets decreased slightly. The reasons might include the tariff event in early April, profit - taking in May and June, and the reduction in the scope of investable targets in the convertible bond market [8]. 3.2. Public Funds and Insurance Funds Reduce Positions Marginally, while Brokers Increase Positions in Convertible Bonds - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds in February, March, May, and June 2025, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions when the convertible bond valuation was high. With the convertible bond market hitting a new high and the equity market at a relatively high level, there was a need to be cautious about possible valuation drops [10][12]. - From January to June 2025, the positions of funds, insurance, and social security in convertible bonds decreased, while those of brokers' self - operation and asset management increased. The positions of convertible bond ETFs had net outflows in April and May and recovered significantly after late June [12][13][15]. 3.3. Analysis of Public Fund Holdings - In terms of industry distribution, public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds in Q2 2025 due to the forced redemption of Nanyin Convertible Bond, Hangyin Convertible Bond, Qilu Convertible Bond, and the approaching maturity of Pufa Convertible Bond. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. - Public funds increased their positions in some high - elasticity varieties such as those in the electronics, computer, communication, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage sectors, which might benefit from the structural market of technology, medicine, and consumption sectors. The positions in convertible bonds of the basic chemical and building materials industries also increased [21]. - In addition to financial bottom - position convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds, public funds increased their positions in high - prosperity and high - elasticity targets such as Outong Convertible Bond, Wentai Convertible Bond, Shenma Convertible Bond, and Hengbang Convertible Bond [26].
基金转债持仓季度点评:25Q2固收+基金持仓,转债供不应求
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-24 13:36
Performance Insights - In Q2 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 3.52%, outperforming pure bond funds which had returns of 0.96%[1] - The overall performance of typical fixed income + funds surpassed that of pure bond funds following a rapid market recovery after a sharp decline[1] Fund Size and Positioning - In Q2 2025, the size of convertible bond funds decreased by 3.67% (CNY 36 billion) to CNY 948 billion, while first and second-tier bond funds increased by CNY 800 billion and CNY 385 billion, reaching CNY 8,487 billion and CNY 8,077 billion respectively[2][20] - The convertible bond fund's position increased slightly by 0.18 percentage points to 91.41%, while first-tier bond funds saw a minor decrease of 0.11 percentage points to 8.54%[24] Market Dynamics - The decline in convertible bond positions was primarily due to passive reductions, as fund managers struggled to find suitable investment opportunities amidst high demand and rising prices[3][26] - The high valuation of convertible bonds has weakened the common low-price investment strategy, leading to a constrained capacity for bottom-layer investment strategies[3][26] Sector Allocation - Public funds focused on increasing allocations in financial securities and mid-to-low priced cyclical consumer sectors, while reducing holdings in banks and other sectors facing forced redemption[4][37] - The top holdings included financial sector bonds, with significant increases in holdings of bonds from banks and non-bank financial institutions[4][37] Investment Strategy - The demand for convertible bonds remains strong, suggesting a continued bullish stance as long as underlying stocks do not show a downward trend[4] - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, combining large-cap bank stocks with policy-driven domestic demand sectors and undervalued technology growth stocks[4]