对可能发生的"热钱"的冲击绝不能掉以轻心。 9月17日，美联储宣布降息0.25个百分点，将联邦基金目标利率降至4%～4.25%区间，开启了本轮降息 的第二阶段。不同于纾困式降息，本次实施的降息为预防式降息，即在经济出现局部放缓迹象时，央行 为预防潜在的经济金融风险爆发而前瞻实施的相对温和降息举措，在一定程度上起到未雨绸缪的作用。 预计今年剩下一个季度的时间内，美联储仍可能推进温和降息，即1-2次，降幅为0.25-0.5个百分点；降 幅多大，主要看经济增长和通货膨胀的态势。当经济增长和就业状况明显走弱，而通胀状态较为温和 时，降息可能2次，降幅0.5个百分点左右；如果增长和就业较为平稳，而通胀却明显回升，则可能降息 1次，降幅0.25个百分点。下一阶段，美联储货币政策主要在刺激经济和防控通胀两大目标之间寻求平 衡。 通常，美联储降息对股市较为友好，尤其是预防式降息有助于提高融资可获得性，减少企业融资成本， 激活并购交易，抑制金融市场风险溢价等。但本轮降息第二阶段重启对全球股市的积极影响不宜高估。 今年以来，全球股市在资金流向上出现了一系列值得关注的重要变化： MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 6, 2025, yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.229%, the UK at 4.525%. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly terms. Japan's yield was 3.715% with a one - year change of - 0.686%, and Brazil's was 6.438% with a one - year change of 0.054% [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: On August 6, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.690%, the UK's was 3.816%. Changes also differed in short - term and long - term periods. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.720% [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies showed various changes. Against the Brazilian real, it had a one - year change of - 2.70%, and against the South African rand, it was - 3.69% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Different indices had different closing prices and changes. The Dow Jones closed at 6345.060 on August 6, 2025, with a one - month change of 16.13%. The Russian index data was not provided, and the Hang Seng Index had a one - month change of 44.51% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: On August 6, 2025, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3457.120, and the US high - yield credit bond index was 1717.511 [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share index closed at 3633.99 with a 0.45% increase. The CSI 300 closed at 4113.49 with a 0.24% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.32, and the S&P 500 was 26.89 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year rate) was - 0.51 with a - 0.04% change [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest A - share fund flow was 139.51, and the CSI 300 was 3.78 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17340.68, and the CSI 300 was 3076.75 [5]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF was - 16.49 with a - 0.40% spread [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - **Treasury Futures**: The T00 closed at 108.555 with a 0.06% increase, and the TF00 closed at 105.775 with a 0.04% increase [6]. - **Funding Rates**: R001 was 1.3482% with a - 12.00 BP daily change, and R007 was 1.4732% with no daily change [6].

Report Overview - The report provides an overview of the global asset market performance on June 10, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Bond Yields**: Yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.472%, with a latest change of -0.004, a one - week change of 0.016, a one - month change of -0.001, and a one - year change of -0.075. Other economies like the UK, France, and Germany also had their respective yield figures and changes [3]. - **2 - year Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year bond yield was 4.040 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.120, a one - week change of 0.120, a one - month change of 0.040, and a one - year change of -0.900. Different economies had different trends in their 2 - year bond yields [3]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies**: Against the Brazilian real, the rate was 5.574 on June 10, 2025, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of -1.13%, a one - month change of -1.78%. For other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc., there were also corresponding rates and changes [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was 7.188, the off - shore RMB was 7.189, the mid - price was 7.184, and the 12 - month NDF was 7.013 on June 10, 2025, with different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different closing prices, latest changes, one - week changes, one - month changes, and one - year changes on June 10, 2025. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6038.810 with a latest change of 0.55% [3]. - **Emerging Economies**: Stock indices of emerging economies like the Russian index, Hang Seng Index, and上证综指 also showed various performance trends on June 10, 2025 [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices including emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, US high - yield, and euro - zone high - yield had their respective closing prices and changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods on June 10, 2025 [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3384.82 with a decline of 0.44%. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, and ChiNext also had their closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.53 with a环比 change of -0.04. Different indices had different valuation and change figures [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was -0.58 with a环比 change of -0.02. Different indices had different risk premium and change trends [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was -1243.05, and different market segments had different fund flow data [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14153.59, and different indices had different trading volume and change figures [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of the IF contract was -24.47 with a premium/discount rate of -0.63% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures such as T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their respective closing prices and percentage changes on June 10, 2025 [6]. - The money market had different interest rates and daily changes, such as the R001 rate at 1.4107% with a daily change of -13.00 BP [6].