轨交设备Ⅱ 2026 年 02 月 08 日 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 铁路系统锚定发展目标，客运提质货运增量启新程 投资要点： 精准发力施策，北京局多维赋能发展大局 行 业 定 期 报 告 中国铁路北京局集团紧扣发展目标，立足区位特点锚定"首善" 标准推进各项工作。服务京津冀协同发展，首次开行环线高铁，优化 列车运行时刻与开行方案，提升区域通达性和客运承载能力；深化客 运提质，优化车站服务、扩大多类便民服务范围，定制开行特色专列、 擦亮旅游列车品牌，激活文旅新动能；聚焦货运增量，发力核心及新 兴品类运输，推进市场化运营改革，盘活货场并构建多式联运体系， 提升货运市场份额的同时助力降低社会物流成本。 聚焦重点攻坚，兰州局多措并举提质增效 中国铁路兰州局集团围绕客运提质、货运增量等重点落实工作会 议精神。客运方面升级列车品牌服务、打造车站品牌样板，落地多项 提质项目并试点便民服务，做强旅游线路、打造特色旅游列车，力争 年内开行超 110 列旅游列车；货运方面与企业签订大宗协议锁定货源， 深化合作拓展运量，发展高附加值货物运输和多式联运；同时完成铁 路站点、设备改造，增加中转列车，系统补强点线能力、保障运输畅 通。 ...

行 轨交设备Ⅱ 2026 年 01 月 31 日 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 宜兴高铁全线隧道贯通，350 时速联通区域发展 投资要点： 工程关键突破，技术攻关破解地质难题 路网枢纽成型，缩短时空助力协同发展 宜兴高铁承担着衔接郑渝高铁与沪渝蓉沿江高铁的重要功能，其 开通运营将带来显著出行变革。兴山至宜昌的旅行时间将压缩至 20 分 钟左右，宜昌至重庆的通行时长也将大幅缩短，这一线路的投用将有 效完善长江经济带综合立体交通体系，为区域资源流动与协同发展注 入强劲动力。 营业里程持续增长，20 万公里目标创造广阔市场空间 2022 年国务院印发《"十四五"现代综合交通运输体系发展规划》， 明确提出到 2025 年，铁路营业里程达到 16.5 万公里，其中高速铁路营 业里程达到 5 万公里；2020 年国铁集团出台《新时代交通强国铁路先 行规划纲要》，2021 年国务院印发《国家综合立体交通网规划纲要》， 两个文件均对 2035 年我国铁路网规模提出了一致要求：到 2035 年， 全国铁路网达 20 万公里左右，其中高铁 7 万公里左右。结合"十四五" 铁路网规模，若想达到 2035 年的目标，2026 年至 203 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The upgrade of Yongxiu Station, a key station in the northern Jiangxi region, enhances travel experience with a design inspired by nature and culture, increasing passenger capacity and adding amenities [3][4]. - The implementation of a new train schedule has increased train frequency to major cities, facilitating regional cultural and tourism development [4]. - The Chinese government's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to expand the railway operating mileage to 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with a long-term goal of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Company Summaries - China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong position in the industry [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A global leader in rail transit control technology [5]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Control: A specialized company in railway safety equipment, becoming a core supplier in the high-speed rail monitoring field [5]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients [5]. - Huizhou Technology: Focused on rail transit services, providing operation and maintenance equipment and integrated solutions with rich experience [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry is expected to have significant investment opportunities in the technology innovation sector by 2026, with structural opportunities arising from both domestic demand recovery and high export demand [2][5]. Group 1: Technology Innovation and AI Infrastructure - The AI infrastructure is expected to benefit from high capital expenditure and rapid technological iterations, leading to new opportunities in the mechanical sector. Overseas capital expenditure for computing power is exceeding expectations, driving demand for PCB equipment and AIDC [2][5]. - The next generation of chips, such as Rubin, may increase processing requirements for PCB, cold plates, and quick connectors, while also promoting new technologies like micro-channel liquid cooling, enhancing the value of equipment and consumables [2][5]. Group 2: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to accelerate by 2026, with a focus on leading companies expanding production. The period from 2022 to 2025 is seen as a transition from prototype to small-scale engineering, with 2026 potentially marking the year of mass production for Tesla [7]. - Attention should be given to the performance upgrades of domestic humanoid robots and the rapid development of application scenarios [7]. Group 3: Export Chain - The export chain should focus on sectors with global competitiveness, such as engineering machinery, hardware tools, motorcycles, and oil service equipment, which are expected to benefit from internationalization and reforms [3][12]. - The engineering machinery sector is seeing significant growth in exports, particularly in the U.S. due to the recent interest rate cuts, which are likely to boost demand [11]. Group 4: Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors are expected to experience turning points and technological changes, with a focus on areas like solid-state batteries and nuclear fusion, as well as segments like 3C equipment and coal machinery that are showing signs of recovery [3][15]. - The lithium battery equipment sector is projected to see a growth spurt, with domestic capital expenditure expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [16]. Group 5: General Cyclical Opportunities - The general cyclical sector is expected to see a bottoming out, with structural opportunities emerging in areas like machine tools, injection molding machines, and industrial gases, as demand recovers [13][14]. - The demand for industrial gases is expected to improve, although there may still be pressure on gas prices [14]. Group 6: 3C Automation Equipment - The 3C automation equipment sector is anticipated to enter a hardware innovation phase in 2026, driven by new product trends such as foldable screens and AI glasses [17].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant achievements in China's railway construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the total railway operating mileage expected to reach 162,000 kilometers by July 2025, including 48,000 kilometers of high-speed rail covering 97% of cities with a population of over 500,000 [2][3]. - The construction of the railway network is being enhanced through "smart+" management and the adoption of BIM technology, contributing to the development of a modernized railway network that supports the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of railway construction on people's livelihoods and economic growth, with record daily passenger volumes and a continuous increase in freight volume, which reached 702 million tons during the summer transport season in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3]. Summary by Sections Railway Network Development - The State Council has set a target for the railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with high-speed rail mileage reaching 50,000 kilometers. By 2035, the goal is to expand the railway network to approximately 200,000 kilometers, including 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail [4]. - To achieve the 2035 target, approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, need to be constructed from 2026 to 2035, averaging 3,500 kilometers of new railway lines annually [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on several key companies in the railway equipment sector: 1. China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of railway equipment, maintaining a strong industry position [4]. 2. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A global leader in rail transit control technology [4]. 3. Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [4]. 4. Sifang Automation: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [4]. 5. Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [4]. 6. Huifeng Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance, with rich experience in technology development and project implementation [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway has successfully operated for two years, transporting over 10 million passengers, significantly reducing travel time from over 3 hours to 46 minutes [3][4]. - The daily train operations have increased from an initial 14 trains to a peak of 62 trains, with a maximum daily passenger capacity of 26,700 [3]. - The railway has achieved a safety record of over 5.65 million kilometers with a punctuality rate exceeding 95% [4]. - The project has positively impacted regional development, attracting 500,000 international travelers and fostering the growth of small and medium enterprises along the railway [4]. Market Opportunities - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for railway expansion, aiming for a total railway mileage of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, with high-speed rail accounting for 70,000 kilometers [5]. - This long-term goal is expected to create significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. - Recommended companies to watch include: 1. CRRC Corporation Limited, a leading global rail transit equipment supplier [5]. 2. China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation, a top provider of rail traffic control systems [5]. 3. Times Electric, a leading supplier of traction and conversion systems [5]. 4. Sifang Automation, a core supplier in the high-speed rail monitoring field [5]. 5. China High-Speed Railway Technology, a leader in intelligent rail operation and maintenance equipment [5]. 6. Brilliant Technology, providing integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance [5].

Group 1 - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks have seen significant gains, with China Railway (601390) up 8.27% to HKD 4.19, China Metallurgical Group (601618) up 7.61% to HKD 3.11, and China CNR Corporation (601766) up 4.83% to HKD 6.29 [1] - According to the National Railway Group, fixed asset investment in railways reached CNY 504.1 billion in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with August alone contributing CNY 71.1 billion, also up 5.6% year-on-year [1] - The investment in railways has surpassed CNY 500 billion for the first time in the first eight months, setting a historical record for investment progress [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year" railway development plan is on track, with expectations for substantial growth in railway investment in the fourth quarter to ensure the completion of all tasks outlined in the plan [1] - The "15th Five-Year" railway development planning has commenced, focusing on network reinforcement, regional coordination, and smart upgrades, with a preliminary plan to construct over 17,000 kilometers of railways, including 10,000 kilometers of high-speed rail [2] - The railway industry is expected to maintain steady growth in capital expenditure, supported by improving passenger and freight demand, as well as increased investment in railway construction [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Yuexiu Property, New China Life Insurance, Nanjing Bank, and others [13][18][19][25][35][42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in industrial profits, with August showing a significant year-on-year profit growth of 20.4%, although revenue growth remains modest at 1.9% [10]. - The real estate sector is under pressure, but there is potential for policy easing to create trading opportunities, particularly for quality developers with low inventory [11]. - Non-bank financials are expected to maintain high growth in Q3, driven by market enthusiasm and performance of leading stocks [14]. - The banking sector is viewed positively, especially for quality city commercial banks, which are expected to offer stable dividends and growth [17]. - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on technological advancements and market demand recovery [20]. - The machinery sector is transitioning from traditional industries to growth segments, with a focus on companies with dual growth curves [27]. - The military industry is seen as promising, with investment opportunities in military trade, internal equipment, and civilian conversion [33]. - The light industry is expected to benefit from new consumption trends and overseas growth, with an emphasis on high dividend and low valuation stocks [36]. - The environmental sector presents various investment opportunities across absolute returns, growth, and aggressive strategies [43]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of demand in Q4, with industrial profit growth driven by state-owned enterprise investment returns [10]. Real Estate - The report notes increasing downward pressure on housing prices in core cities, but anticipates potential policy support for quality developers [11][12]. Non-Bank Financials - The sector is expected to continue its high growth trend, with a focus on leading stocks and insurance companies benefiting from improved return on equity [14][16]. Banking - Quality city commercial banks are highlighted as attractive investments due to their stable earnings and dividend yields [17][18][19]. New Energy - The report identifies a stable outlook for the new energy sector, particularly in solar and storage technologies, with a focus on leading companies [20][23][25][26]. Machinery - The machinery sector is transitioning to growth areas, with recommendations for companies that show strong growth potential [27][30][31]. Military - Investment opportunities are identified in military trade and technology, with a focus on companies leading in military aircraft and related technologies [33][34]. Light Industry - The report highlights growth potential in new consumption and overseas markets, with a focus on companies with strong operational capabilities [36][38][39]. Environmental - The environmental sector is seen as having multiple investment opportunities, particularly in waste management and water services [43][44][50].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The completion of the Panzhou to Xingyi high-speed railway marks a significant milestone for Guizhou Province, achieving the goal of "high-speed rail connectivity for every city." The railway spans approximately 98 kilometers with a design speed of 250 km/h, featuring a bridge and tunnel ratio of 90.66%, which is the highest among Guizhou's high-speed rail lines [3][4]. - The South Ping high-speed railway, connecting Nanning to the border city of Pingxiang, has also seen progress with the completion of three new stations. This railway is 201 kilometers long and is designed for a speed of 250 km/h, enhancing regional connectivity and economic development [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines ambitious goals for China's railway network, aiming for a total operating mileage of 165,000 kilometers by 2025, including 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. By 2035, the target is to reach approximately 200,000 kilometers of railway, with 70,000 kilometers being high-speed rail. This long-term goal is expected to create significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Company Summaries - China CNR Corporation: A global leader in rail transit equipment supply, maintaining the top position in revenue within the industry [5]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leading provider of rail transit control systems, recognized for its technological expertise [5]. - Times Electric: A prominent supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. - Sifang Control: Specializes in railway transportation safety equipment, becoming a core supplier in the high-speed rail monitoring sector [5]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients including national railways and urban rail systems [5]. - Huizhou Technology: Focuses on providing operation and maintenance equipment and integrated solutions for rail transit, with extensive experience in technology development and project implementation [5].