证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20260202 2 月度金股：蓄势再出发 2026 年 02 月 02 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 波动释放后，2 月蓄势再出发 我们认为 1 月下旬指数的震荡整理有两方面原因。一方面源于波动率修复 的内在要求。1 月中旬，沪指 20 个交易日波动率指标升至短线高位，指数 需要通过放缓上行斜率的方式完成波动率的修复。另一方面，也与外生力 量的节奏引导相关，沪指走出十七连阳后市场情绪短期过热，多项信号密 集释放，核心宽基 ETF 多日放量净赎回，凸显外生力量逆周期调节平抑波 动的决心，强化"慢牛"思路。 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈刚 执业证书：S0600523040001 cheng@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙婷 展望 2 月，市场表现有望较 1 月下旬走强。一是当前沪指 20 个交易日波 动率已由峰值 102 回落至 32 附近， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility at elevated levels, with external and internal factors limiting risk appetite ahead of the holiday season. The core drivers of the current spring market rally remain unchanged, suggesting potential opportunities for investment after adjustments [1][17]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown a preference for value stocks, with a notable shift towards lower valuation sectors such as liquor and consumer goods, increasing the difficulty of capturing excess returns [1][17]. - Historical spring market adjustments are often driven by profit-taking pressures, policy and fundamental validations, and external environmental shocks. If adjustments are primarily due to fund behavior, they may provide space for subsequent increases [2][18][20]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of now, over 50% of annual performance forecasts have been disclosed across all A-shares, with a higher than average positive forecast rate in sectors such as non-bank financials, materials, and consumer goods. The sectors with the highest projected net profit growth include military, machinery, and consumer products [3][21]. - The overall industry prosperity index has risen for two consecutive months, indicating improvements in various sectors, including power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [3][21]. Group 3: Valuation Observations - Current valuation and trading conditions indicate that sectors like computing power and materials are experiencing high levels of crowding, while consumer and export chains, as well as AI applications, are less crowded, presenting potential investment opportunities [4][22]. - The trading crowding in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace equipment shows signs of decline, while consumer goods and financial sectors are beginning to recover from low trading crowding [4][22]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain volatility in the short term, with a potential continuation of the spring rally post-holiday. It is recommended to focus on high-quality, low-valuation sectors such as power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [5][23]. - The investment strategy should include a shift towards sectors with high growth potential and favorable valuations, while also considering thematic investments in AI applications and consumer travel chains benefiting from the holiday season [5][23].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，展望2月，在港股业绩预期已有显著调整，叠加内外部资金 面的扰动因素也已告一段落，判断港股2025年12月下旬以来的春季行情或将延续，整体呈现春节前大盘 股有相对收益，政策方向支持的成长行业表现更优的态势。春季后需关注下一个解禁高峰期或对港股流 动性预期的影响。短期建议关注三大主线：1)"十五五"政策方向，包括生物制造、具身智能、6G等;2) 政策推动基本预期逆转的外卖平台和地产;3)受益于春季躁动的非银。 港股市场存在较为明显的春季躁动行情。 过去十一年港股的春季躁动行情中，恒指平均收益率为2.4%，期间平均周度胜率达70.8%。其中， 2019/2021/2023年表现较为亮眼，平均涨幅达10.6%。而2016年和2024年由于分别受熊市末端和流动性 冲击，春季躁动区间跌幅分别为12.0%和7.6%，直至春节后行情才逐步展开。对比而言，港股的春季躁 动更多集中在1月份，而A股的春季躁动更多集中在2月份。资金流维度，2015-2025年的十一年中，南 向历年1月和1+2月净流入占全年比例平均分别为19.3%和27.9%，但若剔除2018年(1+2月净流入体量超 过全年) ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华泰证券指出，人民币升值期间，AH权益通常表现较好，港股敏感性更高。通过传导路径分析：配置 效应下，外资强偏好的白电、电池、工程机械、电网设备、饮料乳品受益；负债效应下，美元总借款占 净资产比重高、汇兑收益占营业收入比重高的行业更受益，如摩托车、种业、汽零、工程机械、光伏设 备等；成本效应下，对外依存度较高的行业毛利率改善，如电子化学品、种业、冶钢原料等；相对基本 面效应下，驱动相对基本面周期上行的行业（如地产链、先进制造等）以及高β行业（如非银等）受 益。 港股通50ETF（159712）跟踪的是港股通50指数（930931），该指数聚焦于港股通范围内市值最大的50 家上市公司，成分股以大市值龙头企业为主，覆盖新经济与传统经济领域。行业配置侧重金融、非必需 性消费 ...

资产端的"买 A 卖港"与负债端逐步远去的"回本赎回" 2025Q4 主动偏股基金股票仓位回落至 86.30%(A 股 73.96%，港股 12.34%)，且仓位回落均来自港股配置比例的下降， 而 A 股配置比例则延续回升。结合南下来看，四季度公募基金持仓占南下比例下降至 16.46%，且主要源于主动基金配 置比例的下降，而被动基金的占比仍在提升，2025 年末两者的占比已经十分接近。业绩方面，四季度主动基金的业绩 中位数大约为-0.11%，终结了此前连续三个季度为正的趋势，但自 2018 年以来，主动基金单季度持续盈利的最长时 间即为 3 个季度，相应地，约 48%的主动基金跑赢了其业绩基准。因子暴露方面，四季度表现较好的主动偏股基金在 盈利能力因子、成长因子上的暴露显著高于其他分组，同时依然具备高估值、高股价分位数、强动量的特征，这大多 延续了三季度的特征，四季度主动基金因子暴露的主要边际变化在于各基金分组在基本面因子上的暴露差异可能有所 收敛。负债端方面，2025Q4 权益类基金(主动+被动)负债端重获资金净流入，其背后一方面是被动基金负债增量规模 的回升，另一方面是主动基金净赎回规模的明显回落：1）主 ...

Core Insights - The current market environment in 2026 differs significantly from 2015, with the recent rise to 4100 points driven by solid industrial foundations and profit support rather than just liquidity and risk appetite [1][5][6] - Opportunities in the market are emerging from accelerated global AI capital expenditure, with Chinese companies actively participating in various segments of the AI industry chain [1][6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, abundant liquidity, and economic recovery are contributing to rising prices of upstream resources, creating new investment opportunities [1][6] Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from a phase primarily driven by liquidity and risk appetite to one where both profits and valuations are expected to drive growth [2][7] - Recent increases in retail investor participation have led to heightened market sentiment, necessitating regulatory measures to ensure stability [2][7] - Short-term market corrections may occur due to over-exuberance, but patience and careful stock selection are advised for investors [2][7] Sector Focus - Continued attention is recommended for sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and export-oriented industries like non-ferrous metals, electric grid equipment, and engineering machinery [2][7] - In the context of inflationary pressures, sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials are suggested for consideration [2][7] Thematic Investment Opportunities - AI applications and commercial aerospace are highlighted as attractive investment themes, particularly after recent adjustments that may have alleviated short-term overheating [3][8] - The commercial aerospace sector, supported by strong policy backing and macro narratives like SpaceX, is expected to see continued upward momentum [3][8] - High-risk investors are encouraged to identify quality leaders within these sectors during periods of adjustment for long-term gains [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including China Resources Land and Nanjing Bank, among others [12][19][53]. Core Insights - The report highlights the financial and manufacturing industries' investment outlook for January 2026, emphasizing the need to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential amid economic pressures [6][8][10]. - It identifies specific sectors such as real estate, non-bank financials, banking, new energy, machinery, military industry, light industry, and environmental protection as areas of interest for investment [8][10][21][32][36][43]. Summary by Sector Real Estate - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, necessitating policy easing. Key companies like China Resources Land are highlighted for their strong operational capabilities and cash flow stability [11][12][53]. Non-Bank Financials - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from policy support and high market trading volumes, with companies like New China Life Insurance showing strong growth potential [16][17][53]. Banking - The banking sector is viewed positively, with a focus on large banks and city commercial banks, particularly Jiangsu Bank, which is noted for its attractive valuation and growth prospects [18][19][53]. New Energy - The new energy sector is at a turning point, with companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Slin Smart Drive recommended for their growth potential in solar and energy storage technologies [21][23][53]. Machinery - The machinery sector is encouraged to focus on AI and robotics, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Ding Tai High-Tech identified for their growth opportunities in traditional and emerging markets [25][30][31][53]. Military Industry - The military sector is expected to see growth from military-to-civilian transitions and military trade, with AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Company highlighted for its potential in the domestic and international markets [32][34][53]. Light Industry - The light industry is advised to focus on overseas manufacturing and new consumer opportunities, with companies like Yingke Medical and Meiyin Sen noted for their growth in international markets [36][40][53]. Environmental Protection - The environmental sector is poised for growth through overseas expansion and rising metal prices, with companies like Weiming Environmental and Ice Wheel Environment recommended for their strong market positions [43][48][51][53].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in January, driven by improved fundamentals and increased government investment, with a high probability of a spring rally [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - The issuance of local government special bonds is anticipated to accelerate, and central budget investments are expected to increase, leading to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals [2] - The year-on-year growth rate of listed companies' annual performance forecasts is likely to rebound significantly due to a low base effect from the previous year [2][5] - The domestic capital market is expected to see increased inflows as the market sentiment improves, aided by the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital [2][4] Market Sentiment and Performance - January will see heightened speculation around performance disclosures, with a focus on companies that exceed expectations or show significant improvements post-announcement [1][2] - The sectors of commercial aerospace, AI applications, and semiconductor equipment are highlighted as key areas of focus for investment in January [2] Style and Sector Allocation - The recommended investment style for January favors large-cap growth stocks, with suggested index combinations including CSI 300 and STAR Market 50 [3] - Sector allocation should focus on cyclical and technology sectors, with specific recommendations for industries such as power equipment, machinery, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals [3][6] Liquidity and Capital Supply - Incremental capital is expected to maintain a stable net inflow in January, with foreign and insurance capital likely to be the main sources of this inflow [4] - The central bank is expected to implement measures to ensure liquidity remains ample, particularly around tax periods and year-end [3][4] Industry Trends and Recommendations - Industries expected to see high growth or improvement in annual reports include those with pricing power, export advantages, and sectors within TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) [5][6] - The focus on sectors with marginal improvements includes AI hardware, robotics, AI applications, non-ferrous metals, and domestic computing power [3][6] External Liquidity Factors - The Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle is expected to positively influence market risk appetite in the first half of the year, although expectations may be subject to revision based on economic data [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to experience a震荡向上 (upward fluctuation) at the beginning of the year, driven by a combination of structural bull market factors and improved investor sentiment [2][4][5] - The anticipated balance between external and internal demand will be a significant factor in 2026, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand becoming increasingly important [2][3] - The spring market is likely to continue its upward trend, supported by improving economic data, ample liquidity, and positive policy signals [4][8] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to see a "开门红" (opening red) at the start of the year, with significant inflows of institutional funds and a favorable liquidity environment [6][10] - The 2026 bull market is characterized by a combination of basic cyclical improvements, new technological trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [5][8] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from new growth themes, such as AI, renewable energy, and industrial automation, while also considering cyclical recovery opportunities [9][11]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "small fluctuation" trend as it approaches the end of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording eight consecutive days of gains and a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [2] - The market is expected to continue its upward momentum, driven by liquidity and positive factors such as a weaker US dollar and rising attractiveness of RMB assets, with a focus on policy expectations and industry trends for potential catalysts [2] - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, as well as sectors with comparative advantages in China [3] Group 2 - The overall market is expected to have upward space before the Spring Festival, with opportunities for low-position layouts, as the main risk factors have weakened compared to previous periods [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a consolidation phase rather than a formal initiation of a major upward trend, with funds adopting a strategy of "buying on dips and structural switching" rather than aggressive accumulation at high levels [4] - The short-term market is likely to evolve through gradual increases in focus and continuous internal adjustments rather than rapid surges, indicating a more cautious approach to investment [4]