策 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 27 日 略 研 究 3 月日历效应：小微盘风格，农林、美容、医药 行业或相对占优 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 3 月日历效应：1）全 A 相对走平，小盘、微盘风格超额明显。2）行 业：农林、美容、医药占优，钢铁、石化、非银滞后。具体来看，宽基和 风格上，参考过去 10 年指数的月涨跌幅，同花顺全 A（加权）指数的 3 月 的平均的月绝对涨跌幅为 0.4%，相对有限。但从超额收益来看，风格上仍 有结构性亮点：小盘风格明显跑赢大盘风格，微盘风格明显跑赢全 A 指数。 行业指数上，参考过去 10 年指数的平均的月涨跌幅，3 月相对占优的有： 农林牧渔、美容护理、医药生物、计算机、公用事业；3 月相对滞后的有： 钢铁、石油石化、非银金融、电子、汽车。 团队成员 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1.红利+：AH 双市轮动策略——2025.02.17 2. 反 转 策 略 ： 红 利 滞 涨 下 的 超 额 选 ...

景气方面，2月份景气较高的领域主要集中在部分资源品、公用事业和信息技术领域，其中资源品板块多数工业金属、化工品价格上涨；中游制造领域光伏 价格指数上行，汽车产销放缓；消费服务板块生猪养殖盈利改善，四大家电零售额同比降幅收窄；金融地产中商品房销售持续低迷，公用事业领域燃气价格 上涨。部分涨价资源品（工业金属、金属新材料、能源金属、贵金属、化学制品等），AI 景气催化的TMT 板块（半导体、通信设备、计算机设备、软件开 发等），出口优势凸显的中高端制造业（电网设备、自动化设备、通用设备、汽车零部件等）等以及非银等行业。 主力净流入行业板块前五：有色金属，国产软件，光伏，稀土磁材，锂电池； 主力净流入概念板块前五：人工智能，国企改革，大数据，数字经济，一带 一路； 主力净流入个股前十：包钢股份、云南锗业、厦门钨业、永泰能源、寒武纪、海光信息、京东方Ａ、中钨高新、北方稀土、昆仑万维 近日，清华大学科研团队合作提出全柔性人工智能芯片FLEXI——面向边缘智能加速的柔性数字存内计算芯片，填补了柔性电子技术领域的空白，为人工智 能应用提供了专用、可扩展且低功耗的硬件支撑。随着技术突破、政策支持，柔性芯片正在走向产业化应用， ...

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a low-volatility trend with a long-term decline in market volatility [2] - The upward trend in the stock market is not yet over, indicating further potential for growth [2] - A-shares are anticipated to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with the importance of fundamentals increasing after a valuation adjustment [2][3] Capital Flow - The demand for asset allocation among domestic residents has been activated by profit effects, with various medium- to long-term funds entering the market, suggesting an active capital flow in 2026 [2][3] - Incremental capital is expected to cover a broader range, driven by increasing motivation among individual investors to enter the market [3] - Public funds and insurance capital are likely to continue increasing their allocation to equity assets, reshaping global capital flow logic [4] Key Investment Sectors - Key sectors to focus on include: - Non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [2] - Technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption transformation, and U.S. stocks [2] - New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, and machinery [3] - AI, new energy, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, price increase chains, and overseas expansion chains [4] - Technology innovation themes and consumption sectors [4] - TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with potential shifts towards cyclical and financial sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment sentiment surrounding the Chinese stock market as the Lunar New Year approaches, highlighting a historical tendency for the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) to rise during this period, leading to a prevailing recommendation for investors to "hold stocks" over the holiday [1][3]. Market Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, the SSE has recorded an increase in 7 out of 10 years during the 5 trading days before the Lunar New Year, and 6 out of 10 years on the day before the holiday [1][2]. - Recent market trends show the SSE rebounding above 4100 points after a strong rally at the end of 2025, with significant gains observed on February 9, 2026, where the SSE rose over 1% [2]. Institutional Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms express optimism regarding the market's performance around the Lunar New Year, with a consensus on the "hold stocks" strategy based on historical trends and current economic conditions [3]. - China Galaxy Securities identifies two main reasons for a favorable market outlook: ongoing supportive policies since September 2024 aimed at enhancing investor confidence and liquidity support from various financial factors [3]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The overall A-share index price-to-book (PB) ratio has decreased to 1.90, placing it at the 54.40th percentile historically, indicating a return to median valuation levels [4]. - Earnings forecasts for 2026 suggest a shift where profitability may become the focal point for market attention, with structural improvements noted in sectors such as technology manufacturing and cyclical industries benefiting from price increases [4]. Sector Performance Insights - Historical data indicates that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electric equipment have performed well before the holiday, while sectors like environmental protection, electronics, media, and agriculture are expected to excel post-holiday [4].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 周期+成长板块均处于分析师景气扩张区间，与行业主线模型形成共振。 景气-趋势-拥挤模型当前配置仍延续顺周期主线，相较于上个月增配了机 械、电子、汽车等科技制造领域。 量化点评报告 周期板块景气预期开启扩张 ① 行业主线模型：相对强弱指标。2024 年出现 RS>90 的行业经过全年 验证确实阶段性地成为了市场的行情主线，上半年主要是高股息、资源品 和出海，下半年主要是 AI。2025 年截至 4 月底，共 17 个行业出现 RS>90 的信号，以 TMT 板块、银行、制造和部分消费行业为主。由于超过半数行 业曾表现强势，行业主线判断难度较大，整体配置以均衡为主。今年截止 2 月 6 日，传媒、建材、石油石化、有色、基础化工、军工、通信这 7 个 行业出现 RS>90 的信号，集中在顺周期和 TMT 板块上，与景气扩张形成 共振，建议重点关注。 ② 行业轮动模型：景气度-趋势-拥挤度框架。2 月行业配置建议如下：机 械 18%、传媒 16%、电子 13%、非银 12%、计算机 12%、建材 7%、 汽车 7%，银行 7%、商 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that after a period of volatility, the market is expected to regain momentum in February, supported by a decrease in the volatility index from a peak of 102 to around 32, which is historically low [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on two main investment themes: technology growth and cyclical recovery, as funds are likely to rotate towards underperforming sectors [3][4] Investment Themes - **Technology Growth**: The AI industry is experiencing significant positive changes, with expectations for OAI listings and advancements in storage, CPU, and packaging sectors. The report highlights the importance of monitoring policy catalysts and industry developments, particularly in emerging sectors like aerospace, new materials, and quantum technology [6][6] - **Cyclical Recovery**: The report suggests that sectors such as chemicals, real estate, and core consumer assets are expected to see a rebound as market sentiment improves. The report notes that these sectors are currently at low points in their economic cycles, with potential for recovery as institutional positions are historically low [6][6] Recommended Stocks - **Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316.SZ)**: The company is positioned to benefit from increasing demand in space and overseas photovoltaic equipment, with a market cap of 58.3 billion and projected EPS growth from 0.95 in 2026 to 1.17 in 2027 [7][7] - **Nuwai Co., Ltd. (603699.SH)**: As a leading industrial valve manufacturer, the company is expected to see growth driven by LNG and marine vessel demand, with a projected EPS increase from 2.51 in 2026 to 3.00 in 2027 [7][7] - **Longjing Environmental Protection (600388.SH)**: The company is focusing on green electricity and energy storage, with a projected EPS growth from 1.20 in 2026 to 1.37 in 2027 [7][7] - **Chip Microelectronics (688630.SH)**: The company anticipates significant profit growth, with EPS expected to rise from 4.18 in 2026 to 6.08 in 2027 [7][7] - **AVIC High-Tech (600862.SH)**: The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace materials, with projected EPS growth from 1.17 in 2026 to 1.29 in 2027 [7][7] - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: The company is projected to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV), with EPS expected to rise from 8.59 in 2026 to 9.74 in 2027 [7][7] - **Rabbit Baby (002043.SZ)**: The company is expected to see steady growth in the decorative board industry, with projected EPS growth from 1.05 in 2026 to 1.15 in 2027 [7][7] - **Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH)**: The company is expected to benefit from improving MDI and TDI market conditions, with projected EPS growth from 5.13 in 2026 to 5.79 in 2027 [7][7] - **Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ)**: The company is positioned to benefit from the demand for optical modules, with projected EPS growth from 4.10 in 2026 to 5.38 in 2027 [7][7] - **Shaanxi Tourism (603402.SH)**: The company is expected to see growth driven by its core tourism operations, with projected EPS growth from 6.65 in 2026 to 7.61 in 2027 [7][7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility at elevated levels, with external and internal factors limiting risk appetite ahead of the holiday season. The core drivers of the current spring market rally remain unchanged, suggesting potential opportunities for investment after adjustments [1][17]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown a preference for value stocks, with a notable shift towards lower valuation sectors such as liquor and consumer goods, increasing the difficulty of capturing excess returns [1][17]. - Historical spring market adjustments are often driven by profit-taking pressures, policy and fundamental validations, and external environmental shocks. If adjustments are primarily due to fund behavior, they may provide space for subsequent increases [2][18][20]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of now, over 50% of annual performance forecasts have been disclosed across all A-shares, with a higher than average positive forecast rate in sectors such as non-bank financials, materials, and consumer goods. The sectors with the highest projected net profit growth include military, machinery, and consumer products [3][21]. - The overall industry prosperity index has risen for two consecutive months, indicating improvements in various sectors, including power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [3][21]. Group 3: Valuation Observations - Current valuation and trading conditions indicate that sectors like computing power and materials are experiencing high levels of crowding, while consumer and export chains, as well as AI applications, are less crowded, presenting potential investment opportunities [4][22]. - The trading crowding in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace equipment shows signs of decline, while consumer goods and financial sectors are beginning to recover from low trading crowding [4][22]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain volatility in the short term, with a potential continuation of the spring rally post-holiday. It is recommended to focus on high-quality, low-valuation sectors such as power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [5][23]. - The investment strategy should include a shift towards sectors with high growth potential and favorable valuations, while also considering thematic investments in AI applications and consumer travel chains benefiting from the holiday season [5][23].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its spring rally from late December 2025, with a focus on large-cap stocks before the Lunar New Year and better performance in growth sectors supported by policy directions [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The performance expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, with a slowdown in the downward revision of earnings forecasts since late December 2025 [1] - The average return of the Hang Seng Index during the spring rally over the past eleven years is 2.4%, with a weekly win rate of 70.8%, particularly strong in 2019, 2021, and 2023, averaging a 10.6% increase [2] - The upcoming earnings reports for Hong Kong stocks are expected to be concentrated from late March to early April, indicating a period of performance vacuum [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Short-term investment focus should be on three main lines: 1) "14th Five-Year Plan" policy directions including biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G; 2) food delivery platforms and real estate benefiting from policy-driven expectations; 3) non-bank financials benefiting from the spring rally [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide long-term investment opportunities, with strategic emerging industries like new energy, new materials, and quantum technology likely to receive policy support [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity outlook for Hong Kong stocks is expected to improve as the market approaches the next peak of stock unlocks, with significant reductions in unlock amounts in January and February 2026 [1] - Historical data shows that net inflows from southbound trading in January and February account for an average of 19.3% and 27.9% of the annual total, respectively [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) rose over 2% on January 28, indicating increased institutional interest in the value of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Huatai Securities noted that during periods of RMB appreciation, AH equities typically perform well, with Hong Kong stocks being more sensitive to these changes [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Beneficiaries of the configuration effect include white goods, batteries, engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and beverage dairy sectors, which are favored by foreign capital [1] - Industries with high total dollar borrowings relative to net assets and high exchange gains relative to operating income, such as motorcycles, seed industry, auto parts, engineering machinery, and photovoltaic equipment, are expected to benefit from the liability effect [1] - Industries with high external dependence are likely to see improvements in gross margins, including electronic chemicals, seed industry, and steel raw materials, due to cost effects [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Sectors that drive relative fundamental cycles upward, such as real estate chains and advanced manufacturing, as well as high beta industries like non-bank financials, are expected to benefit from relative fundamental effects [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), focusing on the 50 largest listed companies within the Stock Connect framework, primarily large-cap leading enterprises across new and traditional economic sectors [1] - The index emphasizes financials, discretionary consumption, and information technology, aiming to reflect the overall performance of related listed company securities while combining high growth potential with low valuation characteristics [1]

Group 1: Asset Side and Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, the stock allocation of active equity funds decreased to 86.30%, with A-shares rising to 73.96% and Hong Kong stocks falling to 12.34% [1][9] - The median return of active equity funds turned negative at approximately -0.11%, with about 47.82% of active funds outperforming their benchmarks, a significant drop from 76.71% in the previous quarter [1][15] - The performance of top-performing funds (P10) showed a notable net subscription, indicating an improvement compared to Q3 2025, regardless of previous performance [21][24] Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - In Q4 2025, the net outflow of active equity funds significantly narrowed from 2178.52 billion to 1114.41 billion, while passive funds saw an increase in net inflow from 1908.60 billion to 2377.98 billion [1][21] - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds continued to rise, with increased allocations to large/small growth and large/mid-value stocks, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery [2][18] - The overall average floating profit of active equity fund holders continued to rise, suggesting a gradual improvement in redemption pressure [21][25] Group 3: "Fixed Income Plus" Funds - The scale of "fixed income plus" funds continued to rise in Q4 2025, reaching a new high since 2024, with significant net subscriptions and increased allocations to sectors like non-ferrous metals, finance, and public utilities [3][31] - Similar to active equity funds, "fixed income plus" funds also increased their allocations to non-ferrous metals and public utilities while reducing exposure to sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [3][31] - The performance of "fixed income plus" funds indicates a potential alignment with active equity funds in terms of sector preferences and market dynamics [3][31]