| | | 国产大豆期货方面表现为减仓小幅回调。国产大豆现货方面较之节前小幅上涨。国产大豆和进口大豆价差在2月 份快速扩大之后，今日从高位开始回调。美盘太豆价格从近期的高点回落，春节期间美国生柴政策预期乐观以 及美豆新作平衡表供需结构同比收紧，外盘表现偏强。不过美国关税政策存在抗动,虽然最高法院驳回了美国 总统此前的关税计划,但随后美总统宣布将全球进口商品临时关税提高至15%,因此对于美豆的出口需求方面产 生了新的变数。后续持续关注政策端的导向。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 美国时间周二，总统特朗普新推出的10%的全球关税开始生效,这标志着白宫开始采取行动,以延续特朗普的贸 易议程，日前特朗普威胁要将税率提高至15%、但截至10%的税率生效之时，尚未正式发布行政令提高税率。今 日美豆受此拖累走弱，连粕亦跟随下跌。春节假期美豆延续偏强格局，短期美豆出口数据以及压榨数据表现较 好,继续提振美豆价格。对于26/27年度美豆的供需平衡表展望,显示出大豆面积同比增加,单产处于历史高 位，出口和压榨均同比增长，大豆期末库存微增，库存消费比同比下降，奠定了新一年度的供需结构同比收紧 的状态,美国市场呈现油强于粕的状态。 【豆油& ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]

Core Viewpoint - The rebound of U.S. soybeans and soybean meal may continue as the market returns to fundamentals, with Argentine weather being a current disruptive factor [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybeans and soybean meal are showing a renewed correlation, indicating a potential for sustained rebound [1] - The market is currently awaiting clarity on production losses in Argentina, which will influence future price movements [1] Group 2: Weather Impact - The uncertainty regarding the timing of production loss assessments in Argentina could range from one week to a longer period [1] - There is a potential connection to previous weather-related themes in the U.S., as foreign climate models predict a hot summer ahead [1] Group 3: Trading Strategy - Current trading opportunities in soybean meal suggest a strategy of buying on dips, with an emphasis on timing and market rhythm [1]