一、市场概览 1月6日，A股市场迎来普涨行情，三大股指同步走强，结构性分化格局有所收敛。上证指数全天震荡上 行，收盘上涨1.50%，报4083.67点；深证成指同步走高，上涨1.40%，收盘报14022.55点。市场交投活 跃度大幅提升，沪深两市成交总额达2.81万亿元，较前一交易日显著放量。从个股表现看，市场涨跌家 数基本均衡，2371股实现特大单净流入，2538股特大单净流出，资金向高景气赛道和低估值标的集中趋 势明显，板块轮动效应显著。 从板块表现看，非银金融板块表现最为强势，特大单净流入64.37亿元，板块指数上涨3.73%；有色金属 板块紧随其后，上涨4.26%，净流入资金36.63亿元；光学光电子、化学原料、小金属等板块也表现活 跃，主力资金流入显著。通信板块则成为资金流出重灾区，特大单净流出75.64亿元，传媒、机械设 备、医药生物等板块也呈现资金净流出状态，调整态势明显。资金流向显示，市场热点向化工、新能 源、显示面板等产业逻辑明确的赛道集中，主力资金合计净流入142.42亿元，市场做多情绪升温。 二、首次涨停板的投资机会 1. 滨化股份（601678）：化工龙头企业，低估值叠加产业升级 核心 ...

本周主要观点： 近期市场的持续分化和回落，主要还是围绕着煤炭降价而展 开的煤化工的降价，当然这些品种本身供需偏过剩，市场资金把 空头情绪推向了极限，煤化工相关品种集体下跌。需要警惕的 是，煤化工品种估值偏低，随时有反弹的可能。尽管焦煤价格近 期持续回落，但矛盾周期不同，保供属于阶段性逻辑驱动，而反 内卷属于长周期的逻辑。可以考虑布局低估值的长期仓位。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 15 日 估值接近极限 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 估值接近极限 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 15 日 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场延续上周的分化行情，有色和贵金属持续表现强势，而黑色和化 工品种持续弱势，01合约被市场推向极致。（1）铜和铝、白银等品种，在供应端 紧张的情况下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a collective increase in major indices, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in infrastructure-related sectors [1] Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.25% [1] - The Infrastructure 50 ETF (159635) saw a rise of 1.26%, with the latest price at 1.122 yuan and an intraday turnover rate of 7.5% [1] Stock Performance - Among the constituent stocks, Shanghai Port Construction led with a 10% increase, followed by Zhenhua Heavy Industries at 5.72%, Huitong Technology at 4.81%, Aidi Precision at 3.38%, and XCMG at 3.26% [1] - Conversely, Sichuan Road and Bridge experienced a decline of 2.53%, with Hongrun Construction down by 1.05%, Anhui Construction down by 0.41%, Zhongli Co. down by 0.37%, and Pudong Construction down by 0.12% [1] Fund Flow - The Infrastructure 50 ETF has recorded five consecutive trading days of positive performance, with expectations for a sixth consecutive gain [1] - Over the past three trading days, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into the ETF [1] Valuation Insights - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Infrastructure 50 ETF is 9.64, which is below 10 and represents a valuation that is lower than 66.79% of the time over the past decade [1] - This low valuation suggests potential investment opportunities in undervalued assets within the infrastructure sector [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown enthusiasm for undervalued sectors, with significant gains in indices for communication, oil and petrochemicals, banking, light manufacturing, textiles, and home appliances as of December 2 [1] - A list of quality stocks with valuations at historical lows has been identified, with 24 stocks receiving ratings from five or more institutions, indicating potential for future outperformance [1][2] - The insurance sector is highlighted as a favorable investment choice due to low valuations and expected growth in liabilities, with several insurance stocks having rolling P/E ratios below 7 times [2] Group 1: Market Performance and Valuation - As of December 2, indices for sectors like oil and petrochemicals, banking, textiles, and home appliances are at low valuation levels, with some individual stocks reaching historical highs [1] - Notable stocks with low valuations include New China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life Insurance, all with P/E ratios below 7, and New China Life Insurance at less than 6 [2][4] - Stocks like Langzi Co. and Beijing Human Resources also have P/E ratios below 10, while others like Guangzhou Development and Batian Co. have P/E ratios under 15 [2] Group 2: Growth Potential and Institutional Ratings - Some stocks are experiencing significant price declines, such as Aibo Medical and Polaroid, with year-to-date declines exceeding 10% [3] - Conversely, stocks like Guangda Special Materials have seen a price increase of 43.76% this year, resulting in a P/E ratio of 21.49, attributed to a substantial profit increase of nearly 214% in the first three quarters [3] - Institutions predict substantial upside potential for several stocks, with targets indicating over 50% upside for companies like Xueda Education and Beijing Human Resources [3][4] Group 3: Recent Negative Developments - ST Yuanzhi (002689) faced a significant drop, closing at 4.33 yuan per share with a 5.04% decline and over 133,000 sell orders, following an announcement of administrative penalties from the Liaoning Securities Regulatory Bureau [5]

Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of style switching around the 4000-point mark, influenced by external market conditions and internal capital dynamics [3][4][14] - The market is expected to stabilize and build a foundation for future trends, with upcoming important meetings in December likely to provide positive signals for economic policy [4][15] Market Overview - Last week, the three major indices of the A-share market showed a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, down 0.97% [7][8] - The market's performance was characterized by a mixed sentiment, with high dividend sectors like utilities providing support while technology stocks faced profit-taking pressure [3][6][14] Sector Analysis 1. Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector, particularly pharmaceutical stocks, is expected to have a rebound due to previous underperformance and the aging population driving demand [9][12] - Recent policy changes regarding drug pricing and procurement are anticipated to positively impact the sector [9] 2. Free Trade Zone in Hainan - Stocks related to the Hainan Free Trade Zone have surged, with the upcoming full closure of the island expected to bring significant policy benefits [10] 3. Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and gas exploration stocks have seen gains due to breakthroughs in shale oil production and supportive government policies [11] 4. Chemical Sector - The chemical industry is showing signs of recovery, with several companies reporting significant earnings growth [11] 5. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in the food and beverage industries [12] 6. New Energy Sector - New energy stocks, including those in solar and battery technologies, are anticipated to perform well due to supportive government policies and ongoing demand for sustainable energy solutions [13] Investment Strategy - A cautious and balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on undervalued "elephant stocks," healthcare, cyclical sectors, and technology stocks with strong earnings support [5][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant presence of insurance capital in the A-share market, particularly in the banking sector, as of the end of Q3 2025 [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, insurance capital appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of 633 A-shares, with a total holding of 688 billion shares valued at 651 billion yuan [1] - The banking sector leads in insurance capital allocation, with a total investment of 316.52 billion yuan, followed by public utilities and transportation sectors with 41.43 billion yuan and 38.16 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - In a low-interest-rate environment, insurance capital has increased its allocation to bank stocks, indicating a long-term preference for high-dividend and undervalued assets [1] - The bank ETF fund (515020) tracks the CSI Bank Index, which includes 42 constituent stocks, comprising major state-owned banks as well as joint-stock and rural commercial banks [1] - As of November 3, the index has a dividend yield of 3.94% over the past 12 months, making it an essential tool for investing in the banking sector [1]

Group 1 - The core investment philosophy of Graham focused on finding extremely undervalued companies with easily liquidated assets [2][4] - Post-World War II, the investment landscape shifted towards low valuation investments, with overall market valuations increasing due to the baby boom and the "Nifty Fifty" bull market [4][5] - The concept of "cigar butt" investing, which involved picking up undervalued opportunities, became less prevalent as the market evolved [5] Group 2 - Graham's disciple Schloss specialized in low price-to-book ratio investments, which later influenced the development of value indices in index funds [6][7] - Buffett, influenced by Charlie Munger, began to accept the idea of buying excellent companies at reasonable prices, diverging from Graham's strict undervaluation approach [8][9] - Munger's perspective emphasized that purchasing high-quality companies at reasonable prices can still be a sound investment, as the value created by these companies will exceed the initial price paid [9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different regional stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2][3] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, suggesting that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios internationally [2] - A free course is offered to teach methods for investing in global stock markets through index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses various schools of thought within value investing, highlighting Graham's classic strategy evolving into value and dividend indices [4][5] - Value investing has yielded good returns in the A-share market over the long term, with multiple different schools emerging over the past century [5] Group 3 - Value investing 1.0, referred to as the "cigarette butt" strategy, involved picking up undervalued stocks during the post-war period when many companies had market values below their liquid assets [6][7] - Value investing 2.0 transitioned to a focus on low valuation investments, particularly in the 1960s during the "Nifty Fifty" bull market, where leading companies reached high price-to-earnings ratios [8][9] - Value investing 3.0, influenced by Charlie Munger, shifted towards buying excellent companies at reasonable prices, exemplified by Buffett's investment in See's Candies [11][12]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Industry**: Coal Mining and Coal Chemical Industry - **Date of Call**: September 19, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Huabei Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 64.9% year-on-year to 1.03 billion yuan, primarily due to cyclical fluctuations in coal prices [2][6][25] - The company's gross profit sources are mainly from coal mining (60%) and coal chemical business (30%) [2][7] - The company has a total production capacity of 35.85 million tons across 17 coal mines, with an estimated recoverable reserve of approximately 57 years [2][7] Market Dynamics - The coking coal market was weak in the first half of 2025, with prices dropping from around 2,000 yuan to approximately 1,500 yuan by the end of 2024 [3][12] - Domestic coking coal prices continued to decline due to weak downstream demand, with prices rebounding to 1,000-1,200 yuan due to safety incidents affecting production rates [3][12] - Huabei Mining is currently in a state of low price-to-book (PB) ratio, with a debt ratio reduced to 48% in the first half of 2025 [3][21][22] Growth Prospects - Future growth is expected to rely on the recovery of the Xifeng Coal Mine and the full production of the Taohutu Coal Mine, which is projected to contribute 1-2 billion yuan and 3-4 billion yuan in net profit, respectively [2][9][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 1.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.65 billion yuan in 2026 as new projects come online [3][25] Pricing Mechanism - Huabei Mining sells thermal coal under long-term contracts and coking coal under a "2+4+4" pricing mechanism, which has allowed for competitive production costs [2][11] - The company is exploring more flexible pricing strategies to adapt to market changes [3][12] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment, primarily through Linghuan Coking and Taixin Technology, has not been operating at full capacity, but significant reductions in losses are expected in 2025 [2][15][16] - The coal chemical business contributed 30% to the company's gross profit, with expectations of reduced losses to 300-400 million yuan for the year [2][15][16] Power Generation and Non-Coal Mining - The power generation business is small but expected to contribute approximately 196 million yuan annually once a new plant is operational in 2026 [2][17] - Non-coal mining operations contributed around 40 million yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025 [2][18] Investment Considerations - Huabei Mining is considered undervalued compared to peers, with a PE ratio of around 18 times projected net profit, while competitors are valued at approximately 25 times [3][14][25] - The company has a high dividend yield, exceeding 5% in 2024, making it attractive for income-focused investors [3][23][24] Market Environment - The coal industry is currently experiencing a low point, but potential supply-side policy improvements could enhance the fundamental outlook [3][26] - Huabei Mining's unique advantages include growth potential and low valuation, positioning it favorably for future investment opportunities [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of value investing strategies, highlighting different approaches and their effectiveness in the market, particularly in the context of A-shares. Group 1: Value Investing Strategies - Value investing has evolved through different stages, starting with the "cigarette butt" strategy, which involved picking undervalued stocks during the post-war period [7][20]. - The "cigarette butt" strategy was prevalent during the 20-year bear market post-World War II, where many companies were valued below their liquid assets [10][12]. - The second stage, "low valuation investment," emerged as opportunities for the "cigarette butt" strategy diminished, focusing on a basket of stocks with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and high dividend yields [22][23]. - The third stage, influenced by Charlie Munger, emphasizes buying excellent companies at reasonable prices, as exemplified by Buffett's investment in See's Candies [30][35]. Group 2: Historical Context and Examples - During the post-war bull market, the investment landscape changed, leading to fewer "cigarette butt" opportunities and a shift towards investing in fundamentally strong companies [21][24]. - Buffett's investment in See's Candies in 1972, at a P/E ratio of 12.5, marked a significant shift in his investment philosophy, focusing on quality and stability [36][41]. - The article highlights Buffett's continued adherence to low valuation strategies, as seen in his investment in Japanese trading companies during the COVID-19 market downturn, where he acquired them at low P/E ratios of 5-8 [55][58]. Group 3: Importance of Valuation - Valuation remains a critical factor across all value investing strategies, influencing investment decisions and outcomes [60]. - The article suggests that understanding valuation methods is essential for investors, with simple and effective techniques available for ordinary investors to grasp [61].