Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, and highlights Ray Dalio's perspective on gold as a strategic asset allocation rather than a tactical bet [1][3][6]. Price Movements - On October 21, gold prices fell below $4250 per ounce, marking a 2.36% decline, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.92% [1]. - Silver prices fell below $50 per ounce for the first time since October 10, with an intraday drop exceeding 6%, ultimately down 4.5% [3]. Ray Dalio's Insights on Gold - Ray Dalio emphasizes that gold should be part of a strategic asset allocation, recommending a 15% allocation for most investors [6][10]. - He argues that gold has historically shown a negative correlation with other assets, particularly during periods of poor returns in stocks and bonds, making it an effective diversification tool [10][11]. - Dalio notes that while gold's long-term expected return is low, it serves as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation [11][14]. Gold as a Unique Asset - Dalio asserts that gold is the most mature form of currency and a stable core investment, contrasting it with fiat currencies, which are essentially debt [12][13]. - He highlights that gold's purchasing power remains intact, unlike cash, which can be devalued through excessive printing [14][21]. Comparison with Other Assets - Dalio explains that while other metals like silver and platinum have industrial uses, they do not possess the same historical and cultural significance as gold, making them less reliable for wealth preservation [18]. - He also critiques inflation-protected bonds, stating they are still debt instruments and may not provide the same level of risk diversification as gold during financial crises [18][19]. Gold vs. U.S. Treasuries - Dalio posits that gold is beginning to replace U.S. Treasuries as a risk-free asset in many investment portfolios, particularly among central banks and large institutions [20]. - He emphasizes that gold has a lower risk profile compared to government-issued debt, which is subject to default and devaluation risks [21].

Core Viewpoint - The founder of Bridgewater Associates, Dalio, presents a unique perspective on gold, viewing it as the most mature form of currency rather than merely a metal, and emphasizes its role as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation [1][2]. Group 1: Gold as Currency - Gold is perceived as a form of currency with purchasing power similar to cash, providing a long-term real return rate of approximately 1.2%, but it does not generate income [1][2]. - Unlike fiat currency, gold cannot be printed or devalued, making it a superior hedge during market downturns or credit system collapses [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Dalio argues that gold is a fundamental investment rather than a regular commodity, and its unique position as a non-debt currency makes it essential in investment portfolios [2][3]. - A strategic allocation of around 15% in gold can optimize the risk-return ratio in diversified portfolios, despite potentially lowering long-term expected returns [4]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Assets - While silver and platinum have inflation-hedging properties, they lack the historical value storage and stability of gold, making them less effective for wealth preservation [2][3]. - Inflation-protected bonds are still debt commitments and may not provide the same level of security as gold during systemic financial crises [3][4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Gold ETFs enhance market liquidity and transparency but are still smaller in scale compared to the physical gold market and central bank holdings, thus not being the primary driver of recent gold price increases [5]. - Gold is increasingly replacing U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" in the portfolios of central banks and institutional investors, highlighting its historical stability compared to government debt [5].

Group 1 - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump raises concerns about the credibility of economic data, which is crucial for monetary and fiscal policy formulation [1][2][3] - Economists warn that the political appointment of key statistical positions in the U.S. undermines the integrity of economic data, leading to potential long-term consequences similar to those seen in Greece and Turkey [2][4][5] - The market is increasingly worried about the implications for U.S. dollar assets, as the trust in government data is essential for attracting foreign investment [6][7] Group 2 - The political nature of the BLS director's appointment could lead to a perception of manipulated data, which would further erode investor confidence in U.S. economic statistics [3][6] - The bond market is reflecting heightened concerns about Trump's economic policies, with long-term Treasury yields showing an increased risk premium, indicating expectations of rising inflation [7] - The recent changes in economic data reporting and the potential for politicization are seen as structural risks to the U.S. securities market, particularly affecting Treasury securities [7]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 779.52 CNY per gram, with a short-term bullish trend indicated by a 0.54% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 780.24 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 778.08 CNY per gram [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 783 CNY per gram and 813 CNY per gram, with important support levels between 770 CNY per gram and 810 CNY per gram [2] Group 2 - A recent Goldman Sachs study indicates that leadership changes in global central banks often lead to inflation rates rising by an additional 1-2 percentage points within two years, without benefiting economic growth [2] - The case of Turkey in 2021 illustrates this, where a change in central bank leadership led to a significant increase in inflation from 15% to 85% [2] - Market inflation expectations are rising, with the three to four-year expected inflation rate based on inflation-protected securities increasing from 2.15% at the end of June to 2.36% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various assets that can preserve value during inflation, highlighting gold, real estate, quality stocks, inflation-protected bonds, and commodities as potential investment options [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold - Gold is recognized for its scarcity and stability, making it a favored asset during inflation [2]. - Its value remains relatively stable regardless of economic fluctuations, leading to increased demand and rising prices during inflationary periods [2]. Group 2: Real Estate - Real estate is considered a valuable asset due to the scarcity of land and ongoing urbanization, which maintains demand [2]. - Inflation increases construction costs, supporting property prices, and real estate can provide stable cash flow through rentals [2]. - However, the real estate market is influenced by policy regulations and supply-demand dynamics, leading to varied performance across regions [2]. Group 3: Quality Stocks - High-quality stocks from stable companies can effectively transfer cost pressures from inflation to consumers, particularly in essential sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals [3]. - These companies can maintain profit growth by raising product prices, which can lead to an increase in stock prices [3]. - Investing in stocks requires professional knowledge and a strong risk tolerance due to market volatility [3]. Group 4: Inflation-Protected Bonds - Inflation-protected bonds adjust their principal and interest based on inflation rates, providing a safeguard against purchasing power erosion [3]. - Compared to regular bonds, these bonds offer clear advantages in an inflationary environment, although their returns may be relatively fixed and lower [3]. Group 5: Commodities - Commodities such as oil, natural gas, and agricultural products are positively correlated with inflation, as rising production costs lead to increased prices [3]. - The demand for these essential goods remains stable, but the commodity market is subject to significant price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and supply-demand changes [3]. Group 6: Overall Investment Strategy - There is no single asset that guarantees preservation of value during inflation; each asset class has its own characteristics and risks [4]. - Investors should consider their individual circumstances when allocating investments among these various asset types [4].