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特朗普解雇劳工统计局局长引发美国“数据政治化”风险 市场已开始定价
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 15:50
近期,美国总统特朗普解雇美国劳工统计局局长麦肯塔弗(Erika McEntarfer)。这一做法叠加他对美 联储主席鲍威尔的态度和关税政策影响,令经济学家和市场人士陷于新的忧虑下。 经济学家警告,对任何一个经济体而言,经济数据可信度均易毁难重建,且会影响货币和财政政策制 定。市场人士警示,特朗普此举可能进一步打击美元资产,并与他所希望的相反,推高美国长期利率。 经济学家警示:经济数据可信度易毁难重建 国际统计学会发表声明称,特朗普此举违反了联合国旨在保护基于事实的统计数据的原则,呼吁美国政 府采取措施,恢复公众对美国联邦数据的信心。 多个教训已证明,经济学家的担忧绝非杞人忧天。希腊在21世纪前十年期间竭力掩盖不断攀升的公共赤 字,最终引发主权债务危机。随后,为了恢复数据信誉,希腊经历了漫长的改革。2016年,希腊对其国 家统计局(ELSTAT)进行全面改革,并成立一个国际专家小组来任命其首席统计师,向国际社会传递 为改善预算做出的努力。希腊的情况还促使欧洲各国政府授予欧盟统计局(Eurostat)权力,令后者有 权检查收到的可疑国家统计数据。 2019年以来,土耳其已四次更换土耳其统计研究所(TUIK)负责人 ...
通货膨胀时,你知道什么最保值吗?小心别选错!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-28 12:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various assets that can preserve value during inflation, highlighting gold, real estate, quality stocks, inflation-protected bonds, and commodities as potential investment options [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold - Gold is recognized for its scarcity and stability, making it a favored asset during inflation [2]. - Its value remains relatively stable regardless of economic fluctuations, leading to increased demand and rising prices during inflationary periods [2]. Group 2: Real Estate - Real estate is considered a valuable asset due to the scarcity of land and ongoing urbanization, which maintains demand [2]. - Inflation increases construction costs, supporting property prices, and real estate can provide stable cash flow through rentals [2]. - However, the real estate market is influenced by policy regulations and supply-demand dynamics, leading to varied performance across regions [2]. Group 3: Quality Stocks - High-quality stocks from stable companies can effectively transfer cost pressures from inflation to consumers, particularly in essential sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals [3]. - These companies can maintain profit growth by raising product prices, which can lead to an increase in stock prices [3]. - Investing in stocks requires professional knowledge and a strong risk tolerance due to market volatility [3]. Group 4: Inflation-Protected Bonds - Inflation-protected bonds adjust their principal and interest based on inflation rates, providing a safeguard against purchasing power erosion [3]. - Compared to regular bonds, these bonds offer clear advantages in an inflationary environment, although their returns may be relatively fixed and lower [3]. Group 5: Commodities - Commodities such as oil, natural gas, and agricultural products are positively correlated with inflation, as rising production costs lead to increased prices [3]. - The demand for these essential goods remains stable, but the commodity market is subject to significant price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors and supply-demand changes [3]. Group 6: Overall Investment Strategy - There is no single asset that guarantees preservation of value during inflation; each asset class has its own characteristics and risks [4]. - Investors should consider their individual circumstances when allocating investments among these various asset types [4].