公 司 研 究 / 基 础 化 工 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 华鲁恒升（600426）财报点评 华鲁恒升：价差承压致业绩环比下滑， 新项目放量助力远期增长 2025 年 11 月 27 日 【投资要点】 25Q3 受价差环比持续收窄及气化炉装置停产检修影响，业绩环比下 滑。产销方面：醋酸及衍生物产量 39.71 万吨，销量 40.34 万吨（同 比+8.79%，环比+0.05%）；肥料产量 155.29 万吨，销量 139.44 万吨 （同比+34.85%，环比-6.11%）。价差方面：Q3 尿素/醋酸/DMF/碳酸 二甲酯/己二酸/己内酰胺价差环比变化-18.6%/-21.1%/-5.1%/+2.1%/- 2.3%/-9.6%。 增持（维持） "一体两翼""双航母"布局日益完善，气化炉技改及新产能陆续放量 有望推动公司业绩持续增长。2024 年，公司荆州基地 100 万吨/年尿 素、100 万吨/年醋酸、15 万吨/年 DMF 及 15 万吨混甲胺项目以及德 州本部高端溶剂项目持续放量，推动公司"一体两翼""双航母"布局日益 完善。2024 年，公司建成投产了 20 万吨/年己二酸项目，蜜胺树脂单 体材料 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical, with a target price of 31.32 yuan based on a 14.5x PE for FY26 [3][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a month-on-month net profit increase of 21.95% in Q2 2025, despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 7.14% [4][15]. - The integrated projects are expected to enhance the product structure, with a total investment of 3.387 billion yuan aimed at producing 200,000 tons of BDO and 160,000 tons of NMP annually [4][15]. - The gasification platform upgrade project is projected to generate an average annual revenue of 3.665 billion yuan post-completion, with a total investment of 3.039 billion yuan [4][15]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is forecasted to achieve a net profit of 3.700 billion yuan, with revenues expected to decline by 2.5% to 33.376 billion yuan [5]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 19.63%, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.28 percentage points [4][15]. - The company’s sales volume for chemical fertilizers and organic amines increased by 13.62% and 33.21% respectively in H1 2025 [4][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with multiple projects completed and put into production [1] - The second quarter showed a recovery from historical lows, with revenue and net profit both improving sequentially [2] - The fertilizer segment achieved revenue and sales growth in the first half of the year, while other segments experienced declines [3] - New production capacities from the BDO-NMP and dicarboxylic acid projects are expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit in the second half of the year [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [4] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company expects revenue of approximately 27.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -9.87% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is approximately 2.99 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 23.17% [5] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 6.93 billion yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 19.03 [5] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach approximately 45.91 billion yuan by 2025 [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in key product prices due to weak demand and increased production capacity in the industry [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.57 billion yuan, down 29.5% year-on-year - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3% year-on-year - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 7.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% [1]. Product Pricing and Cost Structure - The prices of major products such as urea, acetic acid, and DMF saw significant year-on-year declines, with decreases of 18.2%, 20.8%, and 11.4% respectively - However, some products experienced a quarter-on-quarter price recovery, with urea prices increasing by 7.5% [2]. - The price spread for key products narrowed as the price declines for some products outpaced the drop in raw material costs [2]. Production and Sales Growth - The company’s production and sales volumes for new energy materials and chemical fertilizers increased significantly in H1 2025, with production up 7.5% and sales up 13.6% year-on-year - In Q2 2025, production and sales volumes continued to grow, with production increasing by 2.6% and sales by 6.5% year-on-year [3]. Capacity Expansion and Future Projects - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects nearing completion, including a 200,000-ton/year BDO and NMP integrated project - A gasification platform upgrade project is planned with an investment of 3.039 billion yuan, expected to generate annual revenue of 3.665 billion yuan upon completion [4]. - The company’s long-term growth prospects remain strong due to ongoing capacity expansion and product matrix improvement [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with net profits projected at 3.5 billion, 4.23 billion, and 5.09 billion yuan respectively - The current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 16.0, 13.2, and 11.0 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Views - The company is facing price pressure on some products, leading to a revision of the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.81, 1.98, and 2.19 RMB respectively. The target price is adjusted to 24.43 RMB based on a 13.5x PE for 2025 [9][11] - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 7.77 billion RMB, down 2.59% year-on-year and 14.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million RMB, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price declines [9][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 27,260 million RMB - 2024A: 34,226 million RMB - 2025E: 34,290 million RMB - 2026E: 35,863 million RMB - 2027E: 37,027 million RMB - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) projections are: - 2023A: 3,576 million RMB - 2024A: 3,903 million RMB - 2025E: 3,843 million RMB - 2026E: 4,208 million RMB - 2027E: 4,653 million RMB [3][7] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 25.90 million tons of products, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.53% quarter-on-quarter. Sales performance varied across sectors, with fertilizers up 36.74% year-on-year, while organic amines and acetic acid derivatives saw declines [10][11] Cost Management and Expansion - The company is focusing on enhancing cost efficiency and expanding market presence despite price pressures. Ongoing projects include melamine resin and nylon 66, with future projects like a 200,000 tons/year dibasic acid project and BDO/NMP integration on schedule [11]