公司报告 | 半年报点评 华鲁恒升（600426） 证券研究报告 归母净利润同比上行，多项目完成投产 事件：华鲁恒升发布 2025 年中报，上半年公司实现营业收入 157.64 亿元， 同比-7.1%，实现归母净利润 15.69 亿元，同比-29.5%。其中第二季度实现 营业收入 79.92 亿元，同比-11.2%，环比+2.8%，实现归母净利润 8.62 亿元， 同比-25.6%，环比+21.9%。 收入利润环比改善，毛利率环比提升，二季度从历史谷底走出 公司第二季度营业收入 79.92 亿元，归母净利润 8.62 亿元，环比一季度分 别+2.8%和+21.9%，均出现回升，二季度毛利率 19.6%，环比一季度提升 3.3PCT，盈利能力的恢复，伴随收入的增长，使得公司净利润环比一季度 实现高增，二季度盈利水平从历史谷底走出。 盈利预测：产品价格变动影响，我们调整公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润预 期至 29.98/43.08/43.99 亿元（25-26 年前值为 41.16/42.96 亿元），维持"增 持"评级。 风险提示：全球经济增长不确定性风险；化工企业安全生产风险；产品价 格和原材料价格波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in key product prices due to weak demand and increased production capacity in the industry [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.57 billion yuan, down 29.5% year-on-year - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3% year-on-year - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 7.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% [1]. Product Pricing and Cost Structure - The prices of major products such as urea, acetic acid, and DMF saw significant year-on-year declines, with decreases of 18.2%, 20.8%, and 11.4% respectively - However, some products experienced a quarter-on-quarter price recovery, with urea prices increasing by 7.5% [2]. - The price spread for key products narrowed as the price declines for some products outpaced the drop in raw material costs [2]. Production and Sales Growth - The company’s production and sales volumes for new energy materials and chemical fertilizers increased significantly in H1 2025, with production up 7.5% and sales up 13.6% year-on-year - In Q2 2025, production and sales volumes continued to grow, with production increasing by 2.6% and sales by 6.5% year-on-year [3]. Capacity Expansion and Future Projects - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects nearing completion, including a 200,000-ton/year BDO and NMP integrated project - A gasification platform upgrade project is planned with an investment of 3.039 billion yuan, expected to generate annual revenue of 3.665 billion yuan upon completion [4]. - The company’s long-term growth prospects remain strong due to ongoing capacity expansion and product matrix improvement [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with net profits projected at 3.5 billion, 4.23 billion, and 5.09 billion yuan respectively - The current price-to-earnings ratio is estimated at 16.0, 13.2, and 11.0 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Views - The company is facing price pressure on some products, leading to a revision of the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.81, 1.98, and 2.19 RMB respectively. The target price is adjusted to 24.43 RMB based on a 13.5x PE for 2025 [9][11] - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 7.77 billion RMB, down 2.59% year-on-year and 14.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 707 million RMB, down 33.65% year-on-year and 17.20% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to price declines [9][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 27,260 million RMB - 2024A: 34,226 million RMB - 2025E: 34,290 million RMB - 2026E: 35,863 million RMB - 2027E: 37,027 million RMB - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) projections are: - 2023A: 3,576 million RMB - 2024A: 3,903 million RMB - 2025E: 3,843 million RMB - 2026E: 4,208 million RMB - 2027E: 4,653 million RMB [3][7] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 25.90 million tons of products, an increase of 22.92% year-on-year but a decrease of 5.53% quarter-on-quarter. Sales performance varied across sectors, with fertilizers up 36.74% year-on-year, while organic amines and acetic acid derivatives saw declines [10][11] Cost Management and Expansion - The company is focusing on enhancing cost efficiency and expanding market presence despite price pressures. Ongoing projects include melamine resin and nylon 66, with future projects like a 200,000 tons/year dibasic acid project and BDO/NMP integration on schedule [11]