Core Viewpoint - After the acquisition of a 55.19% stake in Jinsha Distillery for 12.3 billion yuan by China Resources Beer, the once-promising liquor company has faced stagnation in growth, chaotic pricing, and a retreat of distributors, leading to a vicious cycle of decline [2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jinsha Distillery, established in 2007, was initially unremarkable until it capitalized on the rising trend of sauce-flavored liquor, achieving significant sales growth from 2018 to 2021, with revenue reaching 6.066 billion yuan in 2021 [5][6]. - However, post-acquisition in October 2022, Jinsha Distillery's performance has sharply declined, with revenue dropping to 781 million yuan in the first half of 2023, a decrease of approximately 33.7% compared to 1.178 billion yuan in the same period the previous year [3][5]. Group 2: Distributor Challenges - Distributors have expressed disappointment and are retreating due to internal price wars and a collapse of the pricing system, with the market price of the core product, "Yanjian," falling to 430-450 yuan, leading to losses of nearly 200 yuan per bottle for distributors [9][10]. - The company's market support has significantly decreased, with promotional activities dropping drastically, resulting in a 70% decline in sales volume and an 80% drop in opening rates for "Yanjian" [10][11]. Group 3: Capital and Market Strategy - The challenges faced by Jinsha Distillery reflect a clash between China Resources Beer’s capital logic and the unique characteristics of the liquor industry, where brand culture and consumer recognition cannot be quickly acquired through capital means [13][14]. - The current market environment is characterized by a brutal clearing process, with a projected 2.8% decline in production for large-scale liquor companies in 2024, while Guizhou liquor production is expected to grow by 6.5%, indicating increasing industry differentiation [14].

Core Insights - China Resources Beer reported growth in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with strong performance in its beer business, but a decline in its liquor business due to overall industry pressure [1][7]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for the first half of the year was 23.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2]. - Shareholder profit reached 5.789 billion yuan, reflecting a 23% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 48.9%, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - Beer business revenue was 23.161 billion yuan, with a 2.6% year-on-year growth, and shareholder profit from beer increased by 17.3% [2]. - Beer product sales volume reached 6.487 million kiloliters, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of beer rose by 0.4% due to ongoing premiumization efforts [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully implemented a premiumization strategy, with significant growth in high-end beer sales [3]. - Sales of premium and above beer products grew by over 10%, with Heineken and Snow beer brands showing strong performance [3]. - The company has developed various specialty beers to meet diverse consumer preferences [2]. Channel Development - Online and instant retail channels have seen rapid growth, with overall GMV increasing by nearly 40% and instant retail by 50% year-on-year [6]. - The company is exploring new business models, including customization and contract manufacturing [6]. Liquor Business Performance - The liquor business revenue fell to 781 million yuan, a decline of 33.7% year-on-year, with significant contributions from major products [7]. - The management anticipates a potential recovery in the liquor market, particularly during peak seasons [7]. - The company plans to introduce products in the 100 yuan price range to align with market demand [7].

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