Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the U.S. job market, with June non-farm employment data showing an increase of 147,000 jobs and a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1% [4] - The report notes the significant growth of the jewelry brand Zhou Li Fu, which went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 1.292 billion [5][6] - The report discusses the rapid expansion of 361 Degrees, which opened 49 new stores, establishing itself as a new landmark in urban sports consumption [6][7] Market Trends - The U.S. economy is experiencing a mild cooling phase, with concerns about the job market being alleviated by strong employment data [4] - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.36% increase, while the light industry manufacturing sector rose by 0.58% [6] - The gold and jewelry retail sector reported a year-on-year growth of 21.8% in May, indicating a robust demand for gold and jewelry products [7] Company Performance - Zhou Li Fu's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 3.102 billion in 2022 to CNY 5.718 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8% [5] - The net profit of Zhou Li Fu is expected to increase from CNY 575 million in 2022 to CNY 706 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.8% [5] - Tao Tao Vehicle's net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between CNY 310 million and CNY 360 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.34% to 97.81% [14][16] Industry Developments - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is advancing, with significant legislative actions in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong [9][10] - The report emphasizes the entry of traditional financial institutions and tech giants into the stablecoin market, enhancing the ecosystem [9] - The report also highlights the potential for Real World Assets (RWA) to create new growth opportunities for stablecoins [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong mid-year performance, particularly in the textile and apparel sector, such as Anta Sports and 361 Degrees [6][7] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted as having strong mid-year performance potential [7] - The report suggests monitoring the progress of virtual asset licensing in Hong Kong and the core application scenarios for stablecoins in the long term [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady market performance over the past year, with notable growth in specific segments such as sports and entertainment products, which saw a year-on-year increase of 25.7% from January to May 2025 [14]. - The report highlights the successful IPO of Zhou Li Fu on June 26, 2025, raising approximately HKD 12.92 billion, with a first-day market capitalization of around HKD 130 billion [13][68]. - 361 Degrees has rapidly expanded its retail presence, opening 49 new stores in 2025, establishing itself as a new landmark for urban sports consumption [13][73]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhou Li Fu, established in 2004, has grown significantly, with over 4,125 stores by the end of 2024, and has been recognized as one of China's top 500 most valuable brands for nine consecutive years [20][68]. - The management team includes experienced individuals with over 20 years in the gold and jewelry industry, focusing on overall business strategy and supply chain management [4][20]. Product and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, gold jewelry products accounted for 91.0% of Zhou Li Fu's revenue, while diamond-inlaid jewelry and other products contributed 9.0% [21]. - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, increasing from CNY 3.102 billion to CNY 5.718 billion [23][69]. Channel Distribution - As of 2024, revenue contributions from franchise stores, self-operated stores, online channels, and other businesses were 50.5%, 8.0%, 40.0%, and 1.5%, respectively [22]. - Online sales have experienced a CAGR of 46.1% from 2022 to 2024, with online revenue making up 40.0% of total revenue in 2024 [22][70]. Financial Performance - Zhou Li Fu's net profit grew from CNY 575 million in 2022 to CNY 706 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.8% [23][69]. - The company's gross profit margin has shown a decline, attributed to a decrease in high-margin service fee income from franchise channels and competitive pricing strategies in online sales [23]. Market Dynamics - The SW textile and apparel sector saw a 1.36% increase in the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, while the SW light industry manufacturing sector rose by 0.58% [10][24]. - The report notes that the textile manufacturing sub-sector has a PE-TTM of 20.09, while the apparel and home textiles sub-sector has a PE-TTM of 27.21, indicating varying levels of market valuation [31]. Industry News - Anta is set to open its first retail store in Beverly Hills, California, marking a significant step in its international expansion strategy [7][65]. - Zhou Li Fu's successful market entry and rapid growth in the jewelry sector highlight the potential for recovery and growth in traditional jewelry companies as consumer demand rebounds [14][68].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese jewelry industry is experiencing a capital feast amid rising global gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook preparing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, backed by major financial institutions [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chow Tai Fook has a vast network of 4,129 stores and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.1% in online sales, positioning itself as the fifth largest jewelry brand in China [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3.102 billion in 2022 to RMB 5.718 billion in 2024, while net profit is expected to rise to RMB 706 million [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese gold jewelry market is expected to grow from RMB 328.2 billion to RMB 568.8 billion over five years, with a CAGR of 11.6%, and the franchise channel accounting for 72.3% of the market share [4]. - Online sales are projected to account for 40% of total revenue by 2024, making it the leading channel among national jewelry brands [4]. Group 3: Financial Strategy and Governance - Chow Tai Fook plans to distribute dividends of RMB 645 million, which is 91% of its net profit, while facing a total debt of RMB 7.41 billion and cash reserves of only RMB 1.77 billion [6]. - The governance structure is highly centralized, with the controlling shareholders holding 93.7% of the equity, which raises concerns about minority shareholder rights [6][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from fluctuating gold prices, which can significantly impact demand and profit margins, especially as gold prices exceed RMB 1,000 per gram [10]. - The online customer acquisition cost has risen to 22% of online revenue, indicating a need for technological innovation to maintain growth [10]. - Product homogenization and low research and development investment (less than 0.5% for three consecutive years) may hinder the company's ability to compete effectively in a market that increasingly values unique designs [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Chow Tai Fook's strategy includes expanding its store network and enhancing brand value through potential IPO fundraising, but it must address issues related to profit margins, governance, and product differentiation to sustain long-term growth [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been adjusted from "Buy" to "Hold" [6][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.48 billion, a year-on-year decline of 32.0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million, down 23.1% year-on-year [1][3] - The decline in performance is attributed to weak demand and a shift in consumer spending towards gold products, impacting the demand for diamond-set products [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 377% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online self-operated revenue for 2024 is 240 million, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, while offline direct sales revenue is 1.115 billion, down 37.0% [2] - In Q1 2025, online self-operated revenue reached 80 million, a significant increase of 80.75% year-on-year, while offline direct sales revenue was 290 million, down 16.7% [2] Channel Strategy - The company has closed 155 stores in 2024, with a net closure of 21 stores in Q1 2025, resulting in a total of 352 stores at the end of Q1 2025 [3] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is 65.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lower margin of gold products [3] Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 100 million, 120 million, and 150 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 100, 85, and 69 [3][5] - The company’s total revenue is expected to decline by 32.01% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 4.21% in 2025, before recovering in subsequent years [5][11]