行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2026 年 2 月） 基本面韧性强，建议重视业绩窗口期交运红 推荐（维持） 利配置机会 交通运输 2026 年 02 月 27 日 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0. ...

1.21亿人次！随着春节假期的结束，全国铁路9天发送旅客数最终定格在这样一个高位，日均1341万人次，较 去年春运期间增长11.5%，其中，2月23日（正月初七）发送旅客1873.3万人次，创春运单日旅客发送量历史 新高。 同时，铁路部门统筹做好重点物资和节日物资保供运输，累计发送货物8538万吨，较去年春运期间增长 0.5%，铁路客货运输实现量质齐升，为旅客出行和假日经济平稳运行提供了有力支撑。 优化服务提升体验 2月22日22时38分，K4598次务工专列搭载1100余名恩施务工人员从湖北省利川站启程，驶向广东省东莞东 站。这趟"点对点"返岗务工专列已连续开行15年，累计服务14.8万人次恩施地区务工人员外出就业。 （左上）2月24日，一列满载化肥、农药及种子等春耕物资的货物列车驶出江西南昌国际陆港。胡国林摄（中 经视觉） （右下）2月21日，旅客在河南洛阳龙门站乘车。张光辉摄（中经视觉） 中国铁路武汉局集团有限公司客运部副主任明雷介绍，该专列从2月21日开行至3月8日，累计开行16趟，全程 1527公里，次日傍晚抵达珠三角目的地。利川、恩施等车站联动交通部门优化公交接驳，强化夜间客流疏 导，划分务工人员 ...

波黑《每日之声》1月29日报道。欧盟委员会在其最新的波黑局势评估报告中发出警示，该国约50%的 铁路基础设施已陷入"不安全且技术过时"的严重状态。由于实体政府长期投资不足，波黑铁路网络难以 支撑起有效的国际过境运输。报告同时敦促波黑尽快完成国内法规与欧盟第四铁路一揽子方案的对接， 核心是开放铁路运输市场并实现基础设施管理与运输运营的分离。 经济分析师佐兰.帕夫洛维奇强调，欧盟已为区域铁路现代化预留资金，但波黑需先完成市场开放及运 营机制改革。波黑联邦铁路公司坦言，长期投入不足导致基础设施持续退化，部分路段仅能限速通行。 (驻波黑使馆经商处) 数据显示，波黑铁路货运量在过去十年间大幅萎缩，已从2017年的880万吨锐减至2025年的580万吨，降 幅超过30%。波黑联邦铁路公司承认，这直接导致客货运收入无法弥补长期投资缺口，形成恶性循环。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new train operation schedule implemented on January 26 aims to enhance the efficiency and capacity of China's railway system, supporting high-quality economic and social development through optimized passenger and freight services [2][5]. Group 1: Train Operation Adjustments - The new schedule includes 12,130 scheduled passenger trains and 23,748 freight trains, improving overall railway transport capacity and efficiency [2]. - The adjustments are part of a broader strategy to align with the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, focusing on a people-centered development approach and market demand [5]. Group 2: Regional Enhancements - New lines such as the Baotou-Yinchuan and Xi'an-Extension high-speed rail are utilized to optimize train operations in central and western regions, facilitating economic development [6]. - Specific improvements include the introduction of benchmark high-speed trains between Yinchuan and Beijing, reducing travel time by 1 hour and 14 minutes compared to previous schedules [6]. Group 3: High-Speed Rail Developments - The new schedule enhances connectivity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with 100 trains from Zhanjiang North to Guangzhou and additional services to Hong Kong [15]. - The introduction of high-speed sleeper trains and adjustments to existing services aim to improve travel convenience and promote regional integration [15]. Group 4: Service Quality Improvements - The railway system is enhancing passenger services, including real-time ticket monitoring and improved booking options for seniors and students, ensuring a better travel experience [37][38]. - Initiatives such as themed tourist trains and enhanced in-transit services aim to create new consumption scenarios and improve overall passenger satisfaction [37]. Group 5: Freight Transport Enhancements - The new schedule includes 473 freight trains, increasing capacity for essential goods like coal and grain, thereby supporting national economic stability [40]. - The optimization of logistics services and the introduction of new international freight routes aim to enhance supply chain efficiency and reduce logistics costs [40].

Core Insights - In 2025, Xinjiang Railway achieved record highs in both passenger and freight transport volumes, with passenger volume reaching 54.25 million and freight volume at 250 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 6.8% and 5.3% respectively [1] Passenger Transport - The Urumqi Railway Bureau maximized capacity by increasing train services, with a peak of 231 passenger trains operating in a single day, a historical record [1] - Special trains for students and educational trips were launched, serving 139,200 group travelers [1] - Direct passenger trains were introduced between Urumqi and eight popular tourist cities, covering over 80% of county-level administrative regions in Xinjiang and 22 provinces, cities, and autonomous regions nationwide [1] Freight Transport - The Urumqi Railway Bureau established a logistics alliance during the 14th Five-Year Plan, enhancing the "road-to-rail" transport strategy, with freight volume surpassing 200 million tons for four consecutive years [1] - The introduction of logistics package projects, including "one order" transportation, streamlined the process for cross-border e-commerce and reduced transportation costs by nearly one-third [2] - In 2025, the Urumqi Railway Bureau signed contracts with 31 key enterprises for a transport volume of 207 million tons, enhancing coal transportation capabilities [3] Infrastructure and Operations - The Urumqi Railway Bureau implemented increased loading capacities on various railways, with daily loading of 12,000 cars becoming routine [3] - A new "smart railway port + local rapid customs clearance" model was introduced at the Horgos port, significantly reducing customs clearance times for imports and exports [4] - The total cargo volume at the Alashankou and Horgos railway ports reached 32.1 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [4]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's national railway achieved a cargo volume of 4.066 billion tons, marking a 2.1% year-on-year increase and surpassing the 4 billion ton milestone for the first time, continuing a growth trend for nine consecutive years [1][2] Group 1: Cargo Transport Performance - The national railway exceeded its freight target in 2025, with an expected cargo volume of 4.03 billion tons, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year growth [2] - The growth rate of railway freight has been narrowing before 2023 but expanded again post-2023, with annual growth rates from 2017 to 2025 recorded as 10.1%, 9.3%, 7.8%, 4.07%, 4.0%, 4.7%, 0.26%, 2.05%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - The "total-to-total" marketing strategy led to a logistics package volume of 1.12 billion tons, accounting for 27.5% of the national railway's freight volume, a significant increase of 20.6 percentage points [2] - Container transport reached 4.1883 million TEUs, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, while freight train volume increased by 24.5% [2] Group 2: Passenger Transport Performance - In 2025, the national railway transported 4.255 billion passengers, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, with peak daily passenger volume reaching 23.132 million, setting a new historical record [2] Group 3: Revenue and Future Goals - The total transport revenue of the national railway group surpassed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 1,020.4 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase year-on-year [4] - For 2026, the national railway aims to achieve a passenger volume of 4.402 billion, a 3.5% increase, and a cargo volume of 4.13 billion tons, a 1.5% increase [4] - The company plans to enhance passenger services by optimizing product offerings and implementing flexible pricing strategies, while also focusing on developing a leading multi-modal transport enterprise [4][5]

Group 1: Infrastructure Industry Market Performance Review - The infrastructure sub-sectors underperformed relative to the Wind All A and Shenwan Transportation indices in 2025, with the Shenwan Highway Index down 9.2%, the Shenwan Railway Index down 13.3%, and the Shenwan Port Index down 1.4%, lagging behind the Wind All A by 17.9, 22, and 10 percentage points respectively [6][11] - The overall market style shift has led to a significant decline in the highway sector, which has seen a cumulative drop of 11.7% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 27.8 percentage points [17] Group 2: Highway Sector - The highway sector's fundamentals remain stable, with traffic revenue affected by road network changes and expansions, leading to varied performance among companies [20][24] - In 2025, the national highway passenger volume reached 8.57 billion people, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, while freight volume was 31.91 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [20] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on individual stocks, particularly Anhui Expressway, which has shown significant revenue growth due to recent acquisitions and expansions [31] Group 3: Railway Sector - The railway sector has shown steady growth in passenger volume, with a total of 3.54 billion passengers transported in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [35] - Freight volume in the railway sector has been under pressure, with a total of 3.91 billion tons transported in the same period, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% [36] - The outlook for the railway sector remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in passenger volume and potential improvements in freight volume as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [43] Group 4: Port Sector - The port sector has demonstrated stable performance, with total cargo throughput reaching 1.357 billion tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [48] - Container throughput has outperformed bulk cargo, with a total of 26 million TEUs handled, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [56] - Investment recommendations highlight Qingdao Port and China Merchants Port as attractive options due to their low valuations and strong cash flow, with expectations for dividend growth [79]

Core Viewpoint - The national railway system is entering a critical phase as it focuses on ensuring safety and transportation efficiency in response to increasing passenger and freight demands, while implementing stringent safety measures and optimizing service quality [1][2][3] Group 1: Safety and Infrastructure - The railway system is enhancing its infrastructure by conducting comprehensive inspections and seasonal maintenance on key equipment such as tracks, bridges, tunnels, and signaling systems, utilizing advanced technologies like big data analysis and drone inspections [1][2] - Preparations for winter conditions are being prioritized to ensure equipment remains operational, including measures for cold weather and snow removal [1] Group 2: Risk Management - A dual prevention mechanism is being implemented to assess seasonal safety risks, focusing on critical areas such as construction safety, vehicle operations, and passenger organization [2] - The railway system is increasing on-site inspections and utilizing information technology tools for enhanced supervision, while also emphasizing safety education and training for employees [2] Group 3: Transportation Optimization - The railway department is optimizing transportation organization by enhancing scheduling and route planning to improve overall network efficiency, prioritizing the transport of essential goods like coal, grain, and fertilizers [2] - Dynamic adjustments to passenger transport capacity are being made based on real-time analysis of passenger flow, ensuring compliance with health protocols and improving travel experiences [2] Group 4: Commitment to Service - Railway staff are dedicated to maintaining safety and efficiency, ensuring that every train arrives safely and that transportation channels remain unobstructed, contributing to economic and social development [3] - The implementation of various safety measures is expected to lead to a successful conclusion of the year's operations and enhance public safety in travel [3]

Group 1: Ningbo-Zhoushan Port Achievements - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has achieved an annual container throughput of over 40 million TEUs for the first time, making it the second in China and the third in the world to reach this milestone [1] - The port's container throughput has increased significantly, growing from 30 million TEUs to 40 million TEUs in just four years, marking it as the fastest-growing major port globally in the last decade [1] - The port is currently the only one in the world with two "ten million TEU-level" single container terminals [3] Group 2: Future Plans and Developments - By 2025, the port plans to extend its shipping routes to the Arctic Ocean, maintaining over 300 total shipping routes and increasing overseas logistics nodes to 11 [3] - The port is enhancing its service chain through "overseas warehouses" and "full logistics" to address cross-border bottlenecks, thereby building a global port logistics network [4] Group 3: Cross-Border Railway Developments - The China-Laos Railway has been operational for four years, with cumulative passenger numbers exceeding 62.5 million and cargo exceeding 72.5 million tons [9] - The railway has seen a significant increase in the number of international passenger trains, with daily operations rising from 8 to a peak of 86 trains [10] - Cross-border freight trains have expanded from 2 to a maximum of 23 trains per day, with over 1.6 million tons of cross-border cargo transported [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, emphasizing the timely allocation of transportation dividend assets [1]. Core Insights - The resilience of highway performance is highlighted, with a notable inflection point in bulk commodity performance. The report indicates that the transportation sector is currently experiencing a favorable investment environment [1]. Summary by Sections Highway: Stable Growth in Toll Revenue and Resilient Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the overall toll revenue of listed highway companies remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [4][7]. - The net profit growth rate for the highway sector in Q3 2025 was 7.1%, with notable performers including Ganyue Expressway (+64.7%) and Zhongyuan Expressway (+43.8%) [10][11]. - Current dividend yields for highway companies as of October 31, 2025, show Sichuan Chengyu at 5.1%, followed by Guangdong Expressway A and Shandong Expressway at 4.5% each [17][18]. Port: Slight Recovery in Bulk Cargo and Mixed Overall Performance - In Q3 2025, the total cargo throughput of national ports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 5.2% [19][21]. - The port industry achieved a net profit of 97.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with Liaoport Co. leading in performance growth at +37.5% for the first three quarters [25][27]. - Current dividend yields for major ports include Tangshan Port at 5.0% and Qingdao Port at 3.7% [17][18]. Railway: Improvement in Q3 Performance - The railway sector showed a sequential improvement in Q3 2025, with key companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway reporting a net profit of 39.86 billion yuan, up 8.96% year-on-year [11][12]. - Current dividend yields for railway companies include Daqin Railway at 4.7% and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway at 2.3% [17][18]. Bulk Supply Chain: Continuous Recovery in Operating Environment - Xiamen Xiangyu reported a significant net profit increase of 443.17% in Q3 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [4][28]. - Xiamen Guomao turned profitable in Q3 2025, reflecting a stabilization in operations despite a year-on-year decline of 18.94% in the first three quarters [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for A/H shares in transportation dividend assets, emphasizing the importance of industrial logic and valuation elasticity [4]. - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wuhu Expressway for highways, and Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port for ports, highlighting their strong dividend yields and growth potential [4].