Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market has experienced significant adjustments, particularly in platinum and palladium, which saw a sharp decline, reflecting short-term pressure on the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, the main contracts for platinum and palladium on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down, with declines of 13% each, marking them as the largest losers in the domestic futures market [1][2]. - Internationally, platinum prices fell by 13.71% and palladium by 15.76% overnight [1]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum futures have increased by 140%, with a volatility of 187.91%, while palladium has risen by 82.85% with a volatility of 138.37% [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in platinum and palladium is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations, particularly in the Chinese market [6]. - Retail investment demand for platinum has reached historical highs, driven by its perceived value compared to gold and its role in hedging against inflation [6]. - The recent sharp declines in prices are linked to regulatory measures that have increased trading costs and reduced speculative trading activity, leading to a liquidity crunch [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [11][12]. - There are differing opinions on the outlook for platinum and palladium in 2026, with some analysts predicting strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others foresee potential oversupply due to changing market dynamics [13][14]. - Factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, persistent inflation, and low real interest rates may support precious metal prices, although industrial demand weakness poses significant downward pressure [14].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are experiencing a significant year-end rally, with platinum prices rising sharply following substantial increases in gold and silver prices [1]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of December 17, 2023, silver leads the precious metals sector with a year-to-date increase of 128%, while platinum has risen by 113% [3]. - On December 17, domestic platinum futures opened with a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, marking the second time it hit the limit since its listing [3]. - NYMEX platinum futures prices surpassed $1,933 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 110% year-to-date, significantly outpacing gold's 64% increase [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have surged due to multiple factors, including tightening physical supply, supportive policies in the new energy sector, and geopolitical changes [5]. - The price of NYMEX platinum futures has increased by over 20% since November, with significant rises of 28% and 17% in June and September, respectively [5]. - The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a global platinum market shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current platinum price increase is attributed to three main drivers: limited supply, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations [6]. - In China, retail investment demand for platinum bars and coins has reached historical highs, reflecting investor recognition of platinum's value relative to gold [6]. - The introduction of platinum futures and options in China is expected to bolster demand, while the automotive industry's ongoing adjustments to catalyst technology will continue to support platinum demand [9]. Group 4: Predictions for 2026 - There is a divergence in predictions for platinum and palladium prices in 2026, with some analysts expecting strong price increases despite potential supply surpluses [10]. - The anticipated growth in North American automotive demand could significantly impact platinum and palladium needs, with small changes in vehicle ownership rates leading to substantial demand fluctuations [10]. - Concerns about potential tariffs on platinum group metals in the U.S. could lead to market dynamics similar to those seen in the silver market this year [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand and cost drivers of ethylene glycol (MEG) are insufficient at present. With the approaching National Day holiday, market participants are leaving the market to wait and see. It is expected that MEG may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 29th, the main contract of MEG futures opened at 4,215 yuan/ton, with the highest at 4,245 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4,209 yuan/ton, the settlement price at 4,225 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 115,895 lots, and the open interest was 320,886 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with an open interest of 320,886 lots, a decrease of 5,154 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with an open interest of 5,070 lots, an increase of 177 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the continuous attacks on a certain European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the prospect of additional sanctions by the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints were triggered. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest in nearly two months. Brent crude futures rose for four consecutive trading days and exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since August. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the November 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42; the settlement price of the November 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [8]. - **MEG Market in Zhangjiagang**: The spot negotiation price of MEG in Zhangjiagang this week (before September 30) was 4,288 - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation price before October 10 was 4,292 - 4,293 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price in late October was 4,294 - 4,296 yuan/ton. The basis of the current week's spot (before September 30) was at a premium of 64 - 66 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before October 10 was at a premium of 68 - 69 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis in late October was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. The mainstream transaction price of the MEG market in Zhangjiagang was 4,280 - 4,310 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]