AI寻机系列03： AI PCB电镀铜粉耗材迎景气周期 丁健 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080520080002 SFC CE Ref：BRQ847 鲁烁 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524070023 刘中玉 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080521060003 SFC CE Ref：BSP722 Email: jian3.ding@cicc.com.cn shuo.lu@cicc.com.cn zhongyu.liu@cicc.com.cn 2025年12月 投资建议 AI驱动PCB产品向高厚径比、多盲埋孔升级，带动AI PCB电镀铜粉耗材需求旺盛，量价齐升拉动行业利润快速增 长，长期成长确定性强，我们认为行业短期产能紧俏，将迎来景气周期。 AI PCB带动铜粉行业加工费利润快速增长。铜球铜粉是PCB电镀耗材，铜球和铜粉分别占PCB成本比重的6%和 13%。AI PCB板厚与层数显著增加，盲埋孔数量几何级增长，填孔工序繁杂，孔铜标准更厚，为应对高厚径比带 来的电镀均匀性挑战，行业铜粉用量占比持续提升是趋势。我们预计2029年PCB铜粉耗材占电镀耗材的比重将从 现在的15%提升至27%以上。铜 ...

创业板指放量大涨3.39%、沪指涨1.19%，金融股走强、算力硬件股集体爆发。百大集团5连板，胜通能源4连板，一图看懂>> 宏盛股份 公司开发的冷却分配单元CDU及列间空调已批量应用于数据中心液冷系统 滑涌信 OpenAl新模型GPT-5.2发布 通鼎互联 通信线缆全产业链企业;公司聚焦光通信产业的发展,建成了涵盖光纤预制棒、光纤、 光缆、通信电缆、通信设备等多个业务类别较为完整的产业链,可为客户提供一揽子的 产品和解决方案 环旭电子 公司7月底发布新一代1.6T光模块并自建测试实验室,未来将与控股股东合作拓展CPO 光器件及系统组装业务 长飞光纤 全球光纤光缆行业的领先企业;公司空芯技术产能水平领先,并已在相关项目中标 中瓷电子 8天4板 公司为电子陶瓷龙头,上半年高端光模块外壳和基板逐步实现放量,目前公司已可以设 计开发1.6T光通信器件外壳和基板,与国外同类产品技术水平相当。 联特科技 公司专注于光通信收发模块的研产销 光迅科技 1、光模块龙头之一,字节跳动是公司重要客户;此前联合思科推出1.6T硅光模块,发 布OCS全光交换机; 2、公司是浸没液冷智算产业发展联盟会员单位,是相关标准、工 艺研究和实践 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2601 | 90960 | 0.2 | 9%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 0.22%。截止北京时间 | CU2602 | 90980 | 2 | | | 06:00，COMEX | 铜主力合约 | 收盘价为 | 美元/磅（按汇率 | 025-12-05 | HGZ25E | 5.2795 | 换算为 | 元/吨），较上一交易日下跌 | ...

中金研究 AI驱动PCB产品向高厚径比、多盲埋孔升级，带动AI PCB电镀铜粉耗材需求旺盛，量价齐升拉动行业利润快速增长，长期成长确定性强，我们认为行 业短期产能紧俏，将迎来景气周期。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 AI PCB带动铜粉行业加工费利润快速增长。 铜球铜粉是PCB电镀耗材，铜球和铜粉分别占PCB成本比重的6%和13%。AI PCB板厚与层数显著增加，盲埋 孔数量几何级增长，填孔工序繁杂，孔铜标准更厚，为应对高厚径比带来的电镀均匀性挑战，行业铜粉用量占比持续提升是趋势。我们预计2029年PCB铜 粉耗材占电镀耗材的比重将从现在的15%提升至27%以上。铜粉加工费是铜球加工费的4-5倍，我们认为这将明显拉动铜粉行业加工费利润的快速增长。 供给稳定需求快速增长，行业短期或酝酿加工费上涨迹象。 在铜粉领域，日韩企业在产品纯度、粒径控制等尖端技术方面仍保持领先优势，当前国内江 南新材和泰兴冶炼厂产能分别为3/1.45万吨，光华科技产能超1万吨，我们预计2026年下半年国内厂商新增产能超过3万吨。今年年底到明年上半年，在新 产能投放出来之前，下游需求旺盛，行业供需格局紧张，铜粉加工费或酝酿 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan New Materials (603124) with a target price of 112 CNY, based on its growth potential and position in the industry [6][40]. Core Insights - Jiangnan New Materials specializes in copper-based materials, focusing on products such as copper balls, copper oxide powder, and high-precision copper heat sinks, primarily serving the PCB and liquid cooling sectors [1][12]. - The company is transitioning its product structure towards higher-margin copper powder due to increasing demand for high-end PCBs, which require more precise manufacturing processes [30][33]. - The high-precision copper heat sinks are expected to significantly boost revenue in the first half of 2025, with a projected income of 84.11 million CNY, marking a 596% year-on-year increase [3][37]. Summary by Sections Overview - Jiangnan New Materials was established in 2007 and has developed a leading position in copper-based materials, with a focus on R&D and manufacturing [12][18]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 39.06% of the shares, which supports long-term development [18]. Market Drivers - The growth in high-end PCB demand is driving the shift from copper balls to copper powder, which offers better process capabilities and efficiency [30][33]. - The liquid cooling market for servers is expected to create a second growth curve for the company, with significant revenue growth anticipated from high-precision copper heat sinks [3][36]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 10.31 billion CNY, 12.44 billion CNY, and 14.82 billion CNY, with net profits expected to reach 284.75 million CNY, 465.85 million CNY, and 658.64 million CNY respectively [4][38]. - The report compares Jiangnan New Materials with peers in the PCB and liquid cooling sectors, suggesting a valuation of 35 times earnings for 2026, leading to a target price of 112 CNY [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the third quarter, primarily due to rising costs of raw materials, particularly copper and gold, which have outpaced the company's ability to raise product prices [3][22]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.50% year-on-year [3]. - The company plans to negotiate price adjustments with customers and optimize product and customer structures to improve profitability in the fourth quarter [3]. Cash Dividend Plan - The company announced a mid-term cash dividend plan for 2025, proposing a distribution of 1.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 2,242.27 million yuan, which represents 36.48% of the net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [15][17]. - The total distributable profit as of September 30, 2025, is 207.83 million yuan, after accounting for legal reserves and previous profits [14][15]. Asset Impairment Provision - The company recognized an asset impairment provision of 10.43 million yuan in the third quarter, which accounts for 13.00% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [22][28]. - The impairment includes provisions for receivables and inventory, with specific amounts of 0.84 million yuan for receivables and 9.59 million yuan for inventory [26][27]. Share Repurchase - The company completed a share repurchase program, acquiring 1,655,200 shares, which is 1.10% of the total share capital, at a total cost of approximately 30.01 million yuan [11][17].