2025 年 9 月 26 日 晨会速递 【有色】美国锑业获国防部大额锑锭合同，锑的战略价值进一步凸显——锑行业系列 报告之八(增持) 事件：美国锑业公司（USAC，AMEX:UAMY）2025 年 9 月 23 日发布公告称，获美国 国防后勤局五年期独家合同，最高 2.45 亿美元供应锑金属锭。美国锑业获国防部大 额锑锭合同，首批交付预计本周完成。合同直接反映了美国对锑供应链安全的担忧， 进一步凸显了锑的战略金属价值。今年锑价先扬后抑。今年春节后锑价变化主要受出 口政策及需求变化影响。出口松动，内盘锑价有望上涨。投资建议：出口有望陆续恢 复，中长期增量有限，看好国内锑价上行。风险提示：锑矿投产进度超预期的风险等。 公司研究 【家电】股息率超 7%彰显价值底蕴——格力电器（000651.SZ）动态跟踪报告(买入) 2025 年股息率已超过 7%，历史经验预示底部特征。按照 25 年盈利预测 330 亿元以 及 52%现金分红率假设，当前公司的预期股息率是 7.7%。2013-2024 年 12 年间， 公司预期股息率超过 7%的时间占比约 31%。基于公司强劲的股息保护能力、业绩确 定性及资产稀缺性，维持"买 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody amount in China reached 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month-on-month, although this was a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared to the end of July [5] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, transitioning to a quota system thereafter, with the country accounting for 76.3% of global cobalt production in 2024 [5] - USAC received a five-year exclusive contract from the US Department of Defense worth up to $245 million for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic value of antimony [5] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -5%, and 45% respectively, while forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines saw growth rates of 1%, 14%, and 16% respectively [7] - The export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories, including excavators, tractors, and mining machinery, were 14%, 25%, 30%, and 23% respectively [7] Group 3 - The global market size for brain-computer interfaces is expected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, driven by policy support and demand from conditions like stroke and ALS [8] - The expected dividend yield for Gree Electric exceeded 7% in 2025, with a historical trend indicating a bottoming characteristic, supported by a projected profit of 33 billion yuan and a 52% cash dividend rate [8]

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.19% at 46,292.78 points, the S&P 500 down 0.55% at 6,656.92 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.95% at 22,573.47 points, ending a three-day streak of record highs [1] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index in London closed at 9,223.32 points, down 0.04%, while the CAC 40 index in Paris rose 0.54% to 7,872.02 points, and the DAX index in Frankfurt increased by 0.36% to 23,611.33 points [2] Group 2: Corporate Developments - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced plans to build five new data centers across the U.S. as part of the government-supported AI project "Stargate," with three centers to be built by OpenAI and Oracle in Texas and New Mexico, and two centers in collaboration with SoftBank in Ohio and Texas [3] - American Antimony Corporation received a five-year exclusive contract from the U.S. Department of Defense worth up to $245 million to supply antimony metal ingots, leading to a more than 13% increase in the company's stock price [4] - Micron Technology reported a 46% year-over-year increase in adjusted revenue for Q4, reaching $11.32 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $3.03, and projected Q1 revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.8 billion, driven by AI demand and tightening DRAM supply [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The OECD raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from its June prediction, while growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 [8]

Market Performance - Major global indices showed mixed performance on Tuesday, with US markets declining, particularly the Nasdaq which fell approximately 1% [1] - The decline in US markets was attributed to investor concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI bull market and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that stock prices are high [1] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.81%, closing at $63.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.60%, closing at $67.63 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.58%, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose by 0.12%, closing at $44.265 per ounce [2] Company Developments - OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank announced plans to build five new data centers across the US to expand the government-supported AI project "Stargate" [13] - Cathie Wood's Ark Invest purchased Alibaba Group's stock for the first time in four years, with a total value of approximately $16.3 million, driven by Alibaba's advancements in AI [14] - US Antimony Corporation received a five-year exclusive contract from the Pentagon worth up to $245 million for the supply of antimony metal ingots, leading to a stock price increase of over 13% [15] - Micron Technology reported a 46% year-over-year increase in adjusted revenue for Q4, amounting to $11.32 billion, driven by AI demand and tightening DRAM supply [16]