有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 战略金属板块的行情还能延续吗 ——有色钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 29 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；关税等因素影响出口需求与产业链稳定性；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 27 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 021-63325888*6084 | | --- | --- | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | | | 从政治政策风险溢价的角度看有色钢铁： | 2025-07-13 | | --- | --- | | ——有色钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 28 | | | 周） | | | 反内卷是钢铁行业的中期投资逻辑：—— | 2025-07-06 | | 钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 27 周） | | | 重点关注盈利稳定、高分红的电解铝板块 | 2025-07-03 | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 供给扰动碳酸锂超跌修复，战略金属价值持 续重估 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 钴方面，中国钴中间品 6 月进口量已出现如期环比骤降，逻辑正在逐步兑现。中国 6 月钴中间 品进口量 18991 吨，环比-61.6%。相较于 2 月底禁令发布后更多来自于情绪修复的钴价上涨， 考虑到下半年将面临原料到港的真空期，且后续刚果金政策不定，本轮现货矛盾或更为突出。 静待国内库存消化，钴价启动第二波上行。锂方面，近期藏格矿业盐湖整改，以及宜春云母矿 补充储量报告等事件均体现出国内矿业管控趋严。在当前利多信号频现窗口下，锂商品和权益 短期上涨动能强劲。但中长期来看，目前实质性的资源出清信号仍不明朗，同时西藏盐湖、湖 南锂云母、四川锂矿等潜力资源点进入产量加速释放阶段，供需大周期拐点仍待时日。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SA ...

Summary of Key Points from the Energy Metals Industry Mid-Year Strategy Report 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the energy metals industry, particularly strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, cobalt, and nickel, highlighting the impact of geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics on these markets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Constraints**: China's export controls on rare earths and tungsten, along with the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban, have led to a tightening of global strategic metal supplies, prompting a reevaluation of their value [1][2]. - **Rare Earths Demand**: The demand for rare earths is expected to remain strong due to growth in humanoid robots and overseas air conditioning needs, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance and potential price increases [1][6]. - **Tungsten Market Dynamics**: The tungsten industry is experiencing supply tightness due to a decrease in mining permits and declining ore grades, resulting in record-high tungsten prices despite weak downstream demand [1][8]. - **Cobalt Supply Shortages**: The DRC's export ban aims to improve mining profitability and government revenue, with expectations of a significant supply shortage as inventories are depleted, likely driving cobalt prices higher [1][10]. - **Nickel Market Positioning**: Indonesian policies have enhanced nickel's profitability within the industry, with prices fluctuating between $15,000 and $17,000. Companies are shifting focus to electric motors and plating to maximize profits amid weak stainless steel and ternary demand [1][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy**: The core investment strategy for 2025 centers on the revaluation of strategic metals, with a focus on supply-side dynamics due to a lack of significant demand catalysts [2][18]. - **Rare Earths Pricing Trends**: The rare earths market is influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions, with export controls affecting pricing and demand dynamics, particularly in high-end magnetic materials [3][5]. - **Consolidation in Rare Earths**: The integration of major rare earth groups has strengthened state control over smelting and separation assets, which is expected to enhance price stability and growth in the long term [4][6]. - **Tungsten Price Outlook**: Despite a lack of robust demand in core sectors, tungsten prices are expected to continue rising due to supply-side constraints, with potential growth in sectors like construction and aerospace [8][9]. - **Cobalt Market Dynamics**: The DRC's export ban is anticipated to create a significant supply gap, benefiting companies with nickel production capabilities unaffected by the ban [10][11]. - **Nickel's Role in the Market**: Nickel's price is closely tied to macroeconomic recovery and demand from stainless steel and battery sectors, with companies adapting to maximize profitability in a challenging environment [12][13][15]. Conclusion - The energy metals industry is poised for significant changes driven by geopolitical factors, supply constraints, and evolving demand dynamics. Investors are advised to focus on strategic metals with strong pricing power and to monitor developments in supply chains and market conditions closely [2][18].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the global distribution of non-ferrous resources is uneven, and strategic metals are becoming a focal point for countries, leading to a revaluation of their worth, with supply being the core theme [2][5][14] - Unlike previous trends driven by macro demand recovery, strategic metals have shown stronger excess returns compared to non-ferrous indices and base metals this year, with supply acting as the main catalyst [2][5][14] Rare Earth Magnets - Rare earths are highlighted as a core strategic metal, with potential price increases due to tightening domestic controls and possible disruptions in overseas supply [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's proactive supply reduction in response to weak prices is expected to weaken the price suppression effect [5] - New regulations on rare earth management are set to enhance industry concentration and control [5] Tungsten - The report forecasts a continued rigid supply for tungsten, supporting an upward price trend due to limited new mining projects and declining output from existing mines [5] - The anticipated decline in domestic mining quotas for 2025 is expected to further bolster bullish sentiment regarding tungsten prices [5] Cobalt - Cobalt's supply is highly concentrated, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounting for 75% of global production, and the DRC's export ban reflects a strong price support intention [5] - The report predicts a significant reduction in DRC's external inventory by 2025, leading to potential price increases [5] Nickel - Indonesia's government policies are expected to support nickel prices, but upward price elasticity will depend on macroeconomic recovery [5] - The report notes that the current tightness in nickel supply is expected to maintain price stability [5] Lithium - Despite current supply pressures and declining prices, the report suggests that a significant resource clearing will take time, with oversupply continuing to suppress prices [5] - However, the report indicates that lithium prices have stabilized at around 70,000 yuan/ton, providing a safety margin for investments [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

白酒龙头需求景气有望触底回升 上周五，三大股指盘中震荡下探，创业板指一度跌超1%，科创50指数跌约2%。截至收盘，沪指跌0.3% 报3342点，深证成指跌0.69%报10126.83点，创业板指跌0.87%报2011.77点，科创50指数跌1.96%，上证 50指数逆市涨0.17%，沪深北三市合计成交12225亿元，较此前一日减少近1000亿元。行业方面，半导 体、零售、传媒、汽车、券商、地产、石油等板块走低，纺织服装、银行、电力、酿酒等板块拉升， ST板块逆市活跃。 中信证券表示，资金风险偏好回升，围绕行业高景气度主题以及新概念主题进行展开，建议优先配置一 季报表现出众的行业主题方向。市场对美国关税的情绪影响反映已较为充分，随着美国与多个国家的关 税谈判逐步展开，市场风险偏好逐步回升。国内维护楼市和股市的政策持续出台对市场预期托底，随着 一季报发布完毕，市场进入一个较为主题躁动的时期。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特 征，市场在一季报高景气的行业主题上持续布局，并对新的主题概念表现更强的偏好。 今日投资机会解析 战略金属或迎价值重估 5月9日，国家出口管制工作协调机制办公室组织商务部等部门召开打击 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to falling lithium prices, but its cesium and rubidium business provided a buffer against these losses [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, with a gross margin of 33% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 757 million yuan, down 66% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14%, falling within the previously forecasted range [1]. - Quarterly revenue for 2024 was 1.13 billion, 1.30 billion, 1.15 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan, with Q4 showing a significant increase of 78% quarter-on-quarter and 56% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit for Q4 was 260 million, 220 million, 70 million, and 210 million yuan, with Q4 showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53% and a year-on-year increase of 190% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% but a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1]. Business Segments - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.76 billion yuan, down 47% year-on-year, with lithium salt contributing 600 million yuan (33%), cesium and rubidium business 1.1 billion yuan (62%), and trading business 120 million yuan (7%) [2]. - Lithium salt production and sales were 44,000 and 43,000 tons, respectively, with a year-on-year sales increase of 145% [2]. - The average selling price of lithium salt was 83,000 yuan per ton (including tax), a 70% decrease year-on-year, which was the main reason for the decline in lithium salt performance [2]. - The company successfully reduced costs from 103,000 yuan per ton to 60,000 yuan per ton through various measures [2]. - The cesium and rubidium business saw a gross profit of 580 million yuan, an 18% increase year-on-year, with formic acid cesium gross profit reaching 510 million yuan, a 122% increase year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to develop multi-metal businesses, including a 30,000-ton lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe and a 60,000-ton copper mine by 2026 [3]. - The company aims to complete a 200,000-ton multi-metal recycling project, with expected production capacities of 33 tons of germanium, 11 tons of gallium, and 11,000 tons of zinc by 2025 [3]. - The company maintains a monopoly in cesium production and plans to establish a cesium selection plant in Zimbabwe by 2025 [3]. - The company has revised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 900 million, 1.4 billion, and 2.4 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 24, 15, and 9 times [3].