2025 年 9 月 26 日 晨会速递 【有色】美国锑业获国防部大额锑锭合同，锑的战略价值进一步凸显——锑行业系列 报告之八(增持) 事件：美国锑业公司（USAC，AMEX:UAMY）2025 年 9 月 23 日发布公告称，获美国 国防后勤局五年期独家合同，最高 2.45 亿美元供应锑金属锭。美国锑业获国防部大 额锑锭合同，首批交付预计本周完成。合同直接反映了美国对锑供应链安全的担忧， 进一步凸显了锑的战略金属价值。今年锑价先扬后抑。今年春节后锑价变化主要受出 口政策及需求变化影响。出口松动，内盘锑价有望上涨。投资建议：出口有望陆续恢 复，中长期增量有限，看好国内锑价上行。风险提示：锑矿投产进度超预期的风险等。 公司研究 【家电】股息率超 7%彰显价值底蕴——格力电器（000651.SZ）动态跟踪报告(买入) 2025 年股息率已超过 7%，历史经验预示底部特征。按照 25 年盈利预测 330 亿元以 及 52%现金分红率假设，当前公司的预期股息率是 7.7%。2013-2024 年 12 年间， 公司预期股息率超过 7%的时间占比约 31%。基于公司强劲的股息保护能力、业绩确 定性及资产稀缺性，维持"买 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant supply shortage in the tungsten industry due to reduced domestic tungsten concentrate quotas and delays in the second batch of quotas, leading to continuous price increases in the tungsten supply chain [1] - In the short term, the volume of the second batch of quotas is identified as a key factor determining the direction of tungsten prices [1] - In the medium to long term, there is a clear protective mining attitude towards domestic tungsten concentrates, while the recovery progress of overseas tungsten concentrates is slower than expected [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, the confirmation of a rate-cutting cycle is expected to lead to steady growth in traditional industrial demand [1] - New applications such as photovoltaic tungsten wire, nuclear radiation tungsten shielding materials, and solid-state battery tungsten-based cathode materials are emerging, contributing to a tight supply-demand balance [1] - The article expresses optimism regarding the strategic metal value and investment potential of tungsten in the medium to long term [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].