存储大周期的投资机会梳理 20260107 摘要 国内半导体设备板块被低估，长鑫存储等公司盈利能力强劲，预计 2030 年资本开支或达 500-600 亿美元，行业龙头公司估值和股价空间 将被打开。 阿里云千问大模型在全球范围内具有竞争力，其背后的算力支持及供应 链存在投资机会，对阿里云 2026 年收入持乐观态度。 协创数据是国内最大的第三方算力租赁平台，受益于国内 IDC 建设周期 短和融资成本低的优势，相较海外市场更具发展潜力。 存储进入超级周期，存储涨价将大幅增加厂商盈利，加速中国存储在全 球市场占有率提升，以阿里为代表的开源大模型展现全球竞争力。 协创科技与阿里云建立战略合作，是国内少数获得 NV 官方背书认证的 服务商，累计采购 221 亿元用于投算力租赁和购买卡片，未来计划翻倍 投资。 科玛科技的陶瓷加热器业务取得突破，市场需求极大，预计 2026 年收 入将比 2025 年增长 4 倍，总收入约 3 亿元，毛利率高达 70-80%。 中微公司受益于存储客户订单增加和国产化率提升，预计在十五五规划 期间总收入可达 90-100 亿美元，目标市值可达 4,000 亿元。 Q&A 近期市场上存储产业 ...

Core Conclusion - Advanced ceramics are positioned as the "crown jewel of the materials industry," achieving a critical phase of import substitution in strategic fields such as semiconductors, new energy, and optical communication. The three companies—Guoci Materials, Sanhuan Group, and Kema Technology—are building competitive barriers through differentiated track layouts: Guoci focuses on a powder-based multi-field platform, Sanhuan monopolizes niche markets with full-chain capabilities, and Kema leverages semiconductor domestic substitution for high growth. Together, they share the trillion-level market dividend [1]. Business Overview: Differentiated Tracks Constructing Domestic Ceramic Industry Ecosystem - Guoci Materials (300285) is positioned as a leading advanced ceramic powder platform, while Sanhuan Group (300408) serves as a comprehensive solution provider for the entire ceramic industry chain, and Kema Technology (301611) is a benchmark for semiconductor advanced ceramic components and domestic substitution [2]. - Guoci's core products include MLCC dielectric powders, honeycomb ceramics, and dental zirconia, while Sanhuan offers optical fiber ceramic inserts and SOFC membranes, and Kema specializes in ceramic heaters and etching machine components [2]. - Revenue structures show Guoci's focus on electronic materials (42%), Sanhuan's on communication devices (38%), and Kema's on semiconductor ceramic components (92%) [2]. In-depth Business Characteristics - Guoci Materials employs a "powder + acquisition" strategy to build a cross-field platform, breaking Japan's monopoly with water-thermal barium titanate powder, achieving over 25% global market share and over 80% domestic MLCC powder market share [3][4]. - Sanhuan Group has a vertical integration model, achieving over 70% global market share in optical fiber ceramic inserts and 80% in SOFC membranes, with a self-manufacturing rate of 90% for equipment [6][8]. - Kema Technology holds a 72% market share in domestic advanced structural ceramics and over 80% in etching equipment ceramic parts, with a focus on upgrading products to higher-margin modules [10]. Core Barriers: Technology, Customers, and Industry Chain - Guoci Materials has achieved breakthroughs in powder synthesis and nanostructured zirconia, with a purity of 99.9% for barium titanate powder [11]. - Sanhuan Group's proprietary technology includes ultra-thin YSZ membranes with over 99% density and a lifespan exceeding 40,000 hours [11]. - Kema Technology's innovations include plasma-resistant ceramics and precision processing techniques, with a focus on long-term contracts with major clients [11]. Development Potential: Growth Logic of Domestic Substitution and Scene Expansion - Key growth drivers include the high-end upgrade of MLCCs for Guoci, SOFC station proliferation and optical communication for Sanhuan, and semiconductor equipment expansion for Kema [15][16]. - The target market by 2030 includes electronic materials at $20 billion, catalytic materials at $15 billion, and semiconductor ceramic components at $10 billion, with compound annual growth rates of 18%-22%, 25%-30%, and 35%-40% respectively [16]. Competitive Landscape - All three companies face competition from Japanese firms like Kyocera and Nippon Electric Glass, particularly in advanced processes below 7nm and high-end SOFCs [18]. - Domestic collaboration is evident, with Guoci supplying raw materials to Sanhuan and Kema, while Sanhuan's semiconductor devices complement Kema's equipment components, forming a domestic ceramic industry ecosystem [19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a solid foundation in structural components, and the introduction of modularized new products is expected to drive a second growth curve [2][3]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 794 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.86%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 245 million yuan, up 8.29% year-on-year [1][2]. - The semiconductor structural component revenue surged over 66% year-on-year to 279 million yuan in the first half of 2025, driven by high capital expenditure from downstream wafer fabs and urgent demand for supply chain autonomy [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 365 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 78, 53, and 37 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 78.45% in 2024, followed by 29.09% in 2025, and 31.03% in 2026 [4][10]. - The net profit growth rate is forecasted to be 279.88% in 2024, 17.35% in 2025, and 46.11% in 2026 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is transitioning from a single component supplier to a core functional module solution provider, with high-margin new products expected to drive valuation upwards [3][5]. - The successful integration of the ceramic heater into major equipment manufacturers' supply chains marks a significant milestone, with plans for accelerated production following the issuance of convertible bonds [3][5]. Stock Performance - As of December 16, 2025, the company's stock closed at 65.10 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 47.72 to 66.89 yuan [5]. - The company has shown absolute returns of 23% over the past month and 24% over the past three months [7].

Core Viewpoint - Kema Technology (301611.SZ) has received an inquiry letter from the exchange regarding its application to issue convertible bonds, focusing on the company's high growth in 2024 and the "revenue growth without profit increase" in Q3 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's non-GAAP net profit is expected to surge by 293.56%, driven by the recovery of the semiconductor industry and opportunities for domestic substitution [1] - In Q3 2025, despite an 18.10% increase in revenue, the non-GAAP net profit declined by 12.79% due to a significant increase in R&D expenses by 80.36% and management expenses by 42.80% [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 78.45%, with core semiconductor structural components seeing a revenue increase of 106.52% [1] Group 2: Customer Concentration and Accounts Receivable - The company emphasizes the significant head effect in the semiconductor industry, with stable partnerships with leading domestic clients such as North Huachuang and Zhongwei [2] - As of September 2025, accounts receivable aged over one year accounted for 7.60%, indicating manageable risk [2] - By the end of October 2025, the collection ratio for accounts receivable from the end of 2024 reached 84.87%, reflecting good collection performance [2]

Group 1: Financial Performance and Risk Management - The company has transitioned from positive to negative financial expenses primarily due to foreign exchange gains, and it has implemented a risk hedging mechanism to manage exchange rate fluctuations [2] - The company is currently profitable and has a sufficient backlog of orders, despite its stock price being underperforming compared to the market [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial stability and managing foreign exchange risks to enhance overall financial health [2] Group 2: Strategic Development and Market Position - The acquisition of Suzhou Kaixin Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to complement the company's existing product offerings in silicon carbide ceramics, enhancing its product layout [3] - The company is focused on addressing the critical component needs in the semiconductor equipment sector through increased R&D investment and production capacity expansion [5] - The company plans to use funds from the issuance of convertible bonds to build a production line for electrostatic chucks and expand the capacity for ceramic heaters [4] Group 3: Investor Relations and Communication - The company is committed to transparent communication regarding employee stock reduction plans and will disclose information as required by regulations [4] - The company acknowledges the impact of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment on stock price fluctuations and encourages investors to focus on long-term value [5] - There is currently no stock buyback plan, but the company aims to provide stable returns to shareholders based on its financial performance [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in advanced ceramic materials in China, with expected earnings growth driven by the increasing demand for its modular products in the semiconductor supply chain [6][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 794 million yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.86%, and a net profit of 245 million yuan, up 8.29% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company has successfully integrated its ceramic heater products into the supply chains of major domestic semiconductor manufacturers, which is expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 349 million yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.3% [10][12]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.11 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.10 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 39.7% [10][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 54.5% in 2025 and increasing to 59.0% by 2027 [10][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is capitalizing on the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry, with increasing orders from leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers [5][6]. - The company has established a comprehensive production system covering the entire value chain, which enhances supply chain security for its customers amid rising international trade protectionism [5][6]. - The company is focused on the development and mass production of high-purity aluminum oxide and high-thermal conductivity aluminum nitride, which are critical components in semiconductor manufacturing [5][6].

Summary of Jiangfeng Electronics Conference Call Company Overview - Jiangfeng Electronics has established a self-controlled high-purity metal supply chain, breaking reliance on competitors and becoming one of the two global companies capable of independently solving high-purity metal supply issues, competing comprehensively with Nippon Mining [2][5][6] - The company has secured a position in the 3nm node substrate market, being one of only three suppliers globally, and has the most diverse range of high-purity metals among single enterprises [2][5] Key Points and Arguments Market Position and Competition - Jiangfeng Electronics has surpassed Nippon Mining in shipment volume since 2024, although there remains a gap in shipment value due to later breakthroughs in copper and carbon target materials [5] - The company is the only domestic producer of high-purity manganese raw materials, enhancing its competitiveness in processes of 7nm and below, with expectations for continued market share growth [2][7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiangfeng Electronics' substrate and component businesses performed well, with substrate business growth exceeding the initial expectation of 20% due to overseas expansion and domestic production increases [3] - Component revenue for 2024 is projected to be around 800 million, with rapid growth expected in Q4 and the first half of the following year [3] Technological Advantages - Jiangfeng Electronics has maintained high gross margins through technological advantages, becoming a sole supplier in semiconductor manufacturing sectors restricted by U.S. entity lists [2][9] - The company has developed a comprehensive self-controlled supply chain for high-purity metals since 2012, achieving significant breakthroughs in core target materials like copper and titanium [5][6] Strategic Goals - The company aims to become a leading supplier of core components in semiconductor manufacturing processes, focusing on products like gas distribution plates and metal heaters [4][13] - Jiangfeng Electronics is positioned to replicate its current market trends in copper and titanium target materials, aiming to become the world's number one supplier [5] Market Dynamics - The geopolitical landscape has led to rising raw material prices in the small metal market, providing Jiangfeng Electronics with opportunities to rapidly replace competitors in advanced storage sectors [4][12] - The company is not relying on price wars for market share but is leveraging its technological edge to maintain high gross margins [9] Future Outlook - Jiangfeng Electronics has established a strong position in the domestic integrated circuit substrate supply landscape, with plans to enhance its market share in overseas markets over time [8] - The company is confident in its ability to expand market share further, especially after surpassing a production milestone of 10 million units [11] Production Capacity and Investment - Current production bases have high capacity utilization rates, with plans to optimize management and improve delivery efficiency [14] - Capital expenditures for the end of this year and 2026 will focus on key component production lines, with a significant portion allocated to component manufacturing [14][15] International Expansion - The establishment of a factory in South Korea is strategic for supporting major clients like Samsung and SK Hynix, while also addressing international trade challenges [16] Additional Important Insights - Jiangfeng Electronics has successfully replaced 20% to 30% of market share previously held by other suppliers over the past five years, particularly in the copper substrate sector [11] - The company is positioned to take advantage of historical opportunities in advanced storage due to geopolitical factors affecting raw material supply [12]

Core Viewpoint - Kema Technology (stock code: 301611) has demonstrated robust growth in its Q3 2025 report, achieving a revenue of 794 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.86%, and a net profit of 245 million yuan, up 8.29% [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Kema Technology reported a revenue of 794 million yuan, reflecting a 28.86% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 245 million yuan, which is an 8.29% increase [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 274 million yuan, marking an 18.10% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of approximately 72.66 million yuan [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 183 million yuan, up 14.90% year-on-year, indicating improved operational quality and profitability [2] - Total assets grew to 2.475 billion yuan, a 25.83% increase from the previous year, while equity attributable to shareholders rose by 13.65% to 1.727 billion yuan [2] R&D and Technological Advancements - Kema Technology invested 73.98 million yuan in R&D during the first three quarters, a significant increase of 46.83%, highlighting its commitment to technological innovation [2] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in core technologies, particularly in the semiconductor equipment sector, facilitating the domestic replacement of critical components [3] - Kema's modular products have achieved mass production, leading to a notable increase in the overall gross margin of advanced ceramic materials [3] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Kema Technology has established a unique business model by integrating advanced ceramic materials with surface treatment services, creating competitive advantages in customer service and production [3] - The company has formed long-term partnerships with leading firms in the semiconductor industry, including major domestic and international players [6] Financing and Future Growth - Kema Technology's application for issuing convertible bonds has been accepted, aiming to raise up to 750 million yuan for expanding production capacity and enhancing liquidity [4][5] - The funding will support projects in structural functional modular ceramic components and silicon carbide materials for semiconductor equipment, strengthening its market position [4][5] - The company is poised for growth in the advanced ceramic materials sector, driven by increasing demand from emerging technologies such as 5G and AI [6][7] Strategic Direction - Kema Technology plans to continue increasing R&D investments and deepen strategic collaborations with clients to enhance its core competitiveness [7] - The company aims to become a leading provider of advanced ceramic material solutions on an international scale, driven by technological innovation and domestic replacement initiatives [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company is experiencing strong growth in semiconductor structural components, with revenue from advanced ceramic materials for semiconductor equipment reaching 437 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.06% [4][5] - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 750 million yuan for expanding production capacity of modular ceramic components and to meet the increasing domestic demand for key semiconductor equipment parts [6] - Revenue projections for the company are 1.119 billion yuan in 2025, 1.466 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.907 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to be 421 million yuan, 578 million yuan, and 783 million yuan respectively [7][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 59.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 25.7 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 8.6 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 22.8% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 72.85 [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth rates of 78.45% in 2024, followed by 30.54% in 2025, and maintaining similar growth rates in subsequent years [11][12] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.71 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.80 yuan by 2027 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Kema Technology, is a leader in advanced ceramic components, with promising prospects in the semiconductor business. The report highlights the company's focus on overcoming "bottleneck" products in the semiconductor sector, particularly ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks, which are critical components in semiconductor manufacturing [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - As of September 24, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 60.76 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 26,491.36 million yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 8,906.36 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenue for Kema Technology is expected to grow from 480 million yuan in 2023 to 1,920 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.04% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 82 million yuan in 2023 to 747 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 323.62 in 2023, decreasing to 35.46 by 2027 [6]. Business Overview - Kema Technology specializes in advanced ceramic materials and surface treatment services, focusing on customized components for various industries, including semiconductors, new energy, automotive manufacturing, and biomedicine [7][22]. - The company has developed a comprehensive solution from design to maintenance of high-precision ceramic components, positioning itself as a key player in the semiconductor equipment supply chain [7][10]. Growth Drivers - The advanced ceramic market is expected to expand significantly, with the Chinese market projected to reach 125 billion yuan by 2026, capturing 24% of the global market share [7][62]. - Kema Technology aims to address critical product shortages in the semiconductor industry by enhancing its R&D efforts in ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks, which are essential for semiconductor manufacturing [10][48]. Client Base and Market Position - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients, including BOE Technology Group and TCL Huaxing, and is recognized as a key supplier in the semiconductor equipment sector [27][48]. - Kema Technology's advanced ceramic components have seen substantial demand growth, particularly in the semiconductor field, contributing significantly to its revenue [32][36]. Investment Projects - The company plans to utilize funds raised from its IPO for expanding production capacity in advanced materials and semiconductor components, as well as enhancing its R&D capabilities [28][48].