Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu reported stable revenue growth in the first half of 2025, achieving operating income of 23.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% [2][3] Revenue Performance - The company maintained its position among the top three in the liquor industry, further solidifying its relative advantage [3] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 7.441 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.45%, while net profit dropped by double digits [3] - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 23.875 billion yuan, compared to 22.659 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, indicating a positive growth trend [5] Regional Distribution - Revenue from outside Shanxi exceeded 15.1 billion yuan, growing by 6.15%, which outpaced the 4.04% growth from within Shanxi [3][5] - Over 60% of the company's revenue now comes from outside Shanxi, reflecting successful market expansion efforts [3] Strategic Initiatives - The management emphasized the implementation of the Nationalization 2.0 strategy, focusing on market penetration in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [7] - The number of distributors outside Shanxi surpassed 3,200, indicating a robust distribution network [7] Product Performance - Main products, particularly Fenjiu, continued to grow, with a revenue increase of 5.75% in the first half of 2025 [7] - The company has adopted a strategy to control the volume of certain products while increasing the volume of others, which has positively impacted brand pricing [7] Future Outlook - The company has a significant "reservoir" of potential, with a contract liability balance of 5.983 billion yuan at the end of the first half, marking a new high for the same period [7]

二季度以来，白酒消费形势更为严峻，汾酒也出现降速。其二季度实现营收74.41亿元，同比增长 0.45%；实现归母净利润18.57亿元，出现两位数下降。 21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 8月28日傍晚，山西汾酒披露半年报：2025年上半年实现营业收入239.64亿元，同比增长5.35%；实现归 母净利润85.05亿元，同比增长1.13%。 可以确定，山西汾酒上半年营收体量稳定在白酒行业前三，并且进一步巩固了相对优势。 按照汾酒的规划，2025年汾酒进入复兴纲领第二阶段，目标是全要素、高质量、又好又快扎根中国酒业 第一方阵，并将汾酒打造为全球有影响力的酒类品牌。 但过去几年汾酒在省外市场的布局，在此时展现出了效果。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，上半年其省外收入超过151亿元，同比增长6.15%，增速快于省内（同比 增长4.04%）。汾酒目前超过六成的收入是来自山西省外。 | 地区分布 | 2025年1-6月 | 2024年1-6月 | 增减变动幅度(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售收入 | 销售收入 | | | 省内 | 873. 231. 23 | 839, 354. 88 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The low valuation of the liquor sector presents layout opportunities, while new consumption valuations are returning to rational levels. The food and beverage index increased by 0.7% from July 21 to July 25, ranking 23rd among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.9 percentage points. The sub-sectors of processed food (+2.0%), health products (+1.9%), and beer (+1.1%) performed relatively well [3][11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector has shown a rebound, primarily driven by trading factors. In a volatile market with frequent rotation of hot sectors, the liquor sector has experienced a notable rebound, with some leading liquor companies seeing stock price increases of over 10%. This rebound is attributed to funds seeking certainty in assets amid a slowing economic recovery and high uncertainty in some industries. Liquor, as a low-valuation and high-dividend traditional defensive sector, has attracted funds [3][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was below the market average, with a 0.7% increase, ranking 23rd out of 28 sectors. The processed food, health products, and beer sectors outperformed, while individual stocks such as ST Xifa, Huang Shang Huang, and Jia Bi You saw significant gains, whereas companies like Huang Shi Group, Xi Mai Food, and Liang Pin Pu Zi faced declines [10][13]. Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices. For instance, the price of fresh milk was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, down 5.9% year-on-year, while the price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, down 17.5% year-on-year. The price of full-fat milk powder increased by 25.0% year-on-year [20][25][22]. Liquor Industry News - The national liquor price index remained stable, with the overall price index at 100.00. The premium liquor price index increased by 10.38%, indicating a positive trend in the premium segment [40]. Recommended Portfolio - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation liquor stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Ximai Food, as well as companies like Wancheng Group and Bairun Co. These companies are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and growth potential [5][47].

Group 1: LVMH Financial Performance - LVMH reported a total revenue of €39.8 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting an organic decline of 3% [1] - The operating profit decreased by 22% to €5.7 billion, with the Wine & Spirits segment experiencing a significant operating profit drop of 33% [1] - The Cognac & Spirits business saw an organic revenue decline of 15% due to trade tensions in the US and China, while Champagne & Wines segment showed an organic growth of 2% [1] Group 2: Remy Cointreau Performance - Remy Cointreau's sales for Q1 of the 2025-26 fiscal year reached €221 million, marking an organic growth of 5.7% [2] - The Cognac sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with the US market benefiting from a low base effect from the previous year [2] - The liqueurs and spirits segment saw a significant organic growth of 17.3%, particularly strong in the US market [2] Group 3: Chinese Baijiu Export Growth - Chinese baijiu exports surged by 30.9% in the first half of 2025, reaching $530 million, with an export volume of 8.31 million liters [4] - The average export price increased to $63.7 per liter, reflecting a growth of 21.9% [4] - Baijiu imports also rose significantly, with a total import value of $207 million, up 63.4% year-on-year [4] Group 4: Corporate Leadership Changes - Zhang Yong was appointed as the new General Manager of Zhujiang Brewery, with the previous GM Huang Wensheng transitioning to the role of Chairman [5][6] - Gu Yu was elected as the Chairman of Yanghe Co., marking a leadership change within the company [7] Group 5: Strategic Investments and Initiatives - Kweichow Moutai announced a joint investment with its parent company to establish a scientific research institute with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan [9] - Luzhou Laojiao is collaborating with the China Rural Development Foundation to create a rural revitalization public welfare fund, committing a total of 20 million yuan over three years [10] - Wuliangye established a technology innovation company with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, focusing on various technological services [11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Views - The white liquor sector is experiencing a rebound due to policy catalysts and sector rotation, with a focus on new consumer products represented by "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" and "Da Zhen" [1][17] - The upcoming reporting period for consumer goods is expected to show mixed results, with short-term adjustments in Q2 performance, but long-term growth potential remains [1][29] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Zhujiang Liquor for white liquor, and Weidong Delicious, Wancheng Group, and others for consumer goods [1][2][17] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has shown a positive performance with a 0.95% increase in the index from July 21 to July 25, 2025 [3][4] - Key stocks with notable increases include Tianyoude Liquor (+6.80%), Yingjia Gongjiu (+3.58%), and Zhenjiu Lidu (+3.50%) [4][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting leading brands with strong momentum and high dividend yields, suggesting that the current price decline for top liquor companies may be limited [1][17] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is undergoing a structural adjustment, but long-term opportunities remain clear, particularly for trend-aligned stocks [2][29] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as quality consumption and emotional value [2][29] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Weidong Delicious, Wancheng Group, New Dairy, and others, with a focus on those showing strong performance and potential for market share growth [2][29] Market Performance - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.69%, with frozen foods and seasoning products leading the gains [2][35] - The report notes that while some sectors like dairy products and other liquors saw declines, the overall market sentiment remains positive for consumer goods [2][35] Key Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai announced the establishment of a new subsidiary with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan [11] - Shanxi Fenjiu launched a new product, Qinghua Fenjiu 30, which has received positive market feedback [12] - Yingjia Gongjiu's new product "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" has been well-received, indicating strong consumer interest [14]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the upgraded Qinghua Fenjiu 30 Revival Edition aims to enhance the brand's market position and respond to consumer demand in the high-end liquor segment, particularly in the 1,000 yuan price range [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Strategy - Qinghua Fenjiu 30 is a key product for Shanxi Fenjiu, targeting the high-end market with a price point that supports brand strength [1][2]. - The upgraded version features enhancements in packaging and quality, with a design inspired by traditional Chinese aesthetics and a commitment to higher quality standards [1][2]. - The pricing strategy indicates a stable upward trend, with the product priced at 1,044.05 yuan for a single bottle and 1,999 yuan for a two-bottle set [2]. Group 2: Market Challenges and Competition - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, including slowing market growth, high inventory levels, and severe price inversion, particularly in the 800 to 1,500 yuan price range [3][4]. - Major competitors in the high-end segment include Moutai and Wuliangye, which dominate the market, making it difficult for Qinghua Fenjiu to establish a foothold [4]. - Despite achieving rapid growth and ranking among the top three A-share liquor stocks, the company relies heavily on its mid-range products for revenue, raising questions about the effectiveness of its high-end strategy [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage the Qinghua Fenjiu 30 Revival Edition to penetrate the high-end market, but success remains uncertain due to intense competition and market dynamics [4]. - The strategic focus includes a "1+4+1" promotional model to enhance market operations and target core consumer segments effectively [2].