Core Insights - The health wine industry is experiencing growth driven by the rising trend of "punk health" among younger consumers, who are blending traditional health drinks with alcoholic beverages [2][3] - Sales of health wines on e-commerce platforms surged by 75.8% year-on-year from January to August 2025, with a volume increase of 33.2% [3] - Major brands like Jingjiu and Zhuyeqing are targeting younger demographics and adapting their products to meet the demand for low-alcohol and fashionable options [3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The health wine category is thriving despite a downturn in the broader white and red wine markets, with traditional health wines previously being underappreciated [3][4] - The "punk health" philosophy is reshaping drinking habits, with 83% of young consumers preferring low-alcohol beverages [2][3] - The introduction of innovative mixing methods for health wines has gained significant traction on social media, leading to increased visibility and engagement [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Jingjiu is projected to see a 20% increase in sales for the year, with a notable rise in young users, particularly women [3] - Zhuyeqing's classic product sales are expected to grow by 16.2%, with e-commerce channels experiencing an 87% increase [3] - Traditional health wine companies are beginning to see a turnaround, with some products experiencing significant revenue growth in recent quarters [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - New entrants and capital are expected to flood the health wine market, focusing on ingredients like ginseng and tea [5] - The long-term success of health wines among younger consumers remains to be seen, as the industry adapts to changing preferences [5]

Core Viewpoint - The health wine industry is experiencing growth driven by the rising trend of "punk health" among younger consumers, who are redefining drinking habits and integrating health-conscious choices into their consumption patterns [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The health wine market saw a significant increase in sales, with a 75.8% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 33.2% increase in volume from January to August 2025 [4]. - The overall performance of major domestic liquor companies, including white and red wines, has been declining, yet health wines continue to thrive [4]. - Young consumers are increasingly favoring low-alcohol beverages, with 83% preferring drinks below 20 degrees [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - The president of Jinpai Company projected a 20% annual growth for Jinjiu, with a notable increase of 9 million young users in the past two years, including 4 million women [4]. - The sales of Zhuyeqing, a light health wine brand under Fenjiu, grew by 16.2%, with e-commerce channels seeing an 87% increase [4]. - Traditional health wine brands are experiencing a shift, with *ST Yedao reporting significant revenue growth for its products in 2025, despite previous declines [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The rise of "self-indulgent consumption" is reshaping drinking scenarios, with young people drinking for personal enjoyment rather than social obligations [5]. - The marketing strategies of health wines, such as those represented by Jinjiu, are attracting a large number of young consumers, indicating potential for rapid growth in the next five to ten years [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - New entrants and capital are expected to flood the health wine market starting in 2024, with ingredients like ginseng, tea, and stone flower becoming new focal points [6]. - The sustainability of health wine as a new drinking trend among young consumers remains to be observed [6].

Group 1 - The health wine industry is experiencing growth driven by the younger generation's interest in "punk health" drinking methods, which combine traditional health drinks with modern consumption styles [1][3] - Sales of health wine on e-commerce platforms surged by 75.8% year-on-year from January to August 2025, with a volume increase of 33.2% [3] - The president of Jinpai Company expects a 20% annual growth for Jinjiu, with 9 million new young users in the past two years, including 4 million women [3] Group 2 - The rise of "self-indulgent consumption" among young people is reshaping drinking scenarios, moving away from traditional business and social pressures to personal enjoyment and emotional release [4] - New entrants and capital are entering the health wine market, focusing on ingredients like ginseng, tea, and stone flower, indicating a shift in consumer demand [5] - Traditional health wine products were previously seen as supplementary and received little attention, but the current market dynamics are changing this perception [4]

Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on the "Old Bai Fen" product as a key growth driver during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for significant market expansion in central, eastern, and southern China [1][2] - The company has set ambitious targets for its major products, including "Old Bai Fen," which is currently underperforming compared to its other series [1][2] - The management acknowledges the need for improvement in brand collaboration and market penetration for high-end products [3] Group 1 - "Old Bai Fen" is identified as a crucial growth area, with plans to enhance its market presence and achieve breakthrough expansion [1] - The company reported a decline in "Old Bai Fen" sales this year, but other products like "Glass Fen" have shown double-digit growth, helping maintain overall revenue growth [2] - The management emphasizes the importance of respecting market realities and consumer needs in the high-end liquor segment, which is facing supply-demand imbalances [2] Group 2 - For 2026, the company aims to implement "four continuous promotions" and "five unwavering commitments" to enhance its market strategy [3] - The management has identified four key areas for improvement, including brand synergy, market penetration of high-end products, aggressive category strategies, and optimization of distribution processes [3] - The "Zhuyeqing" brand is a significant part of the company's strategy, focusing on core consumer groups and product innovation [3][4] Group 3 - The main brand has initiated the "Fen Enjoy Youth" project, which includes the development of over ten new product designs aimed at younger consumers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The management of Shanxi Fenjiu emphasizes "rationality" as a key theme in response to the challenges faced by the liquor industry this year, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to consumption and pricing [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.405 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.48% [1]. - For the third quarter alone, the company reported total revenue of 8.960 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 2.899 billion yuan [3]. Market Challenges - The liquor industry is currently facing significant challenges, with many companies experiencing pressure on performance. Among 20 A-share listed companies, only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu have managed to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit [1]. - The chairman of Shanxi Fenjiu acknowledged the difficulties in the industry, noting that traditional consumption patterns driven by government and business scenarios have largely failed this year [3]. Strategic Focus - For the upcoming year, Shanxi Fenjiu plans to focus on four main areas: national expansion 2.0, youth-oriented strategies 1.0, internationalization 1.0, and precise consumer services [6]. - The company aims to optimize inventory structure, stabilize pricing systems, enhance consumer engagement, and promote the synergy of its three major brands [6].

市公司 머副▷公司书 报告原因:有信息公布需要点评 型入(维持) | / הודדין | | | --- | --- | | 据: | 2025 年 12月 02 | | 市场数据: 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | --- | | 192.16 收盘价（元） | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： and and the local of the local of the local to the local the local the loc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1][6] Core Insights - The company has established a solid foundation for steady growth, with effective order management and a focus on product innovation and market expansion [6] - The company aims to enhance its brand synergy and improve its marketing strategies to better adapt to market demands and consumer preferences [6] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue growth and stable profit margins, despite some challenges in brand collaboration and market competition [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 36,011 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.8%, and is expected to grow to 40,011 million by 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 12,243 million in 2024, remaining stable in 2025, and then increasing to 13,282 million by 2027 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated at 10.04 in 2024, with slight declines in 2025 and 2026, before rising to 10.89 in 2027 [2] Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining market order and channel management, which is expected to help it navigate through economic cycles effectively [6] - The stock's target price is set at 285 yuan, compared to the current price of 192.16 yuan, indicating significant upside potential [2][6] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to focus on four key areas: national expansion, youth engagement, internationalization, and precise consumer service [6] - Product innovation and marketing strategies will be enhanced to attract younger consumers and improve brand visibility [6] - The company is committed to maintaining market order and ensuring channel cooperation, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive environment [6]

| 买入（维持） | | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 192.16 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 | 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-02 01-02 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is declining, with only a few companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu showing slight growth, while the majority face significant revenue drops [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the third quarter of 2025, 20 listed baijiu companies reported their earnings, with only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving minor increases, while 18 others experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - The baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to changing consumer environments and high channel inventories [1]. Market Trends - Despite the overall downturn, the light bottle liquor segment is experiencing robust growth, with products like Shanxi Fenjiu's Guo Fen showing over 10% sales growth in the first three quarters [1][5]. - The market size of light bottle liquor has expanded from 35.2 billion yuan in 2013 to over 150 billion yuan in 2024, with projections indicating it will surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025 [1][5]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 32.924 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 11.405 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.48% [2]. - The growth in Shanxi Fenjiu's performance is attributed to its light bottle products, particularly Guo Fen, which has shown significant sales increases [2][5]. Competitive Landscape - The rapid growth of the light bottle liquor market has prompted many liquor companies to increase their investments in this segment, with notable entries from Yanghe and other brands [6][8]. - Analysts indicate a shift in consumer preferences from luxury packaging to quality and cost-effectiveness, driving the growth of light bottle liquor [8]. Market Challenges - Despite the overall growth in the light bottle liquor market, there is increasing differentiation among brands, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing severe challenges [10][12]. - Niulanshan's revenue dropped by 19.79% to 5.869 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit decline of 79.85% [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies facing challenges due to changing consumer habits and market dynamics [13][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 8.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.899 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year [2][4] - The performance of the Qinghua 20 and Glass Fen products was strong, with significant growth in the out-of-province market. The company adjusted its product structure and sales strategy in response to economic conditions [4][5] - The company is expected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth for the full year, with profit growth remaining flat. Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.302 billion, 12.899 billion, and 13.647 billion yuan, respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and profit increased by 5.0% and 0.48% year-on-year, respectively. The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 4.05% but a profit decrease of 1.38% [4][5] - The sales net profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.78%, down 1.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 76.10%, up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 31.928 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%, and net profit at 10.438 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [8][9] Product and Market Analysis - The company’s product lines include strong performers like Glass Fen and Qinghua series, with the Qinghua 20 showing double-digit growth. However, the Qinghua 30 experienced a significant decline [4][5] - In terms of regional performance, the company saw a 7.52% decrease in revenue from the domestic market for the first three quarters, while the out-of-province market grew by 12.72% [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 10.08 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.9, 18.0, and 17.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 37.0% in 2023 to 22.3% by 2027 [10][11]