其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | -0.066 | | 家用电器 | 0.122 | | 房地产 | 0.159 | | 环保 | 0.198 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.201 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开源晨会 0821 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】对等关税 2.0 后，行业关税或将成关键新变量——宏观经济专题 -20250820 【宏观经济】广义财政收入压力边际缓解——宏观经济点评-20250819 【固定收益】转债市场风格或切换——固收专题-20250820 行业公司 【电力设备与新能源】欧洲电动车销量月报（2025 年 7 月）：9 国新能源车增速再 创年内新高——行业点评报告-20250820 【农林牧渔：生物股份(600201.SH)】非瘟疫苗研 ...

2025 年 08 月 20 日 对等关税 2.0 后，行业关税或将成关键新变量 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 已达成贸易协定：阶段性框架协定为主，实质内容不多 1. 特朗普政府在贸易谈判上取得了一定成果。截至 8 月 18 日，特朗普政府与英 国、欧盟、日本、韩国等国家和地区达成了贸易协定，这些国家和地区占 2024 年美国商品总进口的比例为 38.6%，占美国 2024 年商品逆差的 49.8%（不含英 国）。但除了英国与美国达成的贸易协定相对具体外，其他国家的贸易协定更像 是一个临时性质的框架协定，缺乏具体的内容安排。且无论美国对贸易伙伴是顺 差/逆差，美国都是单方面征收关税，所有协定均存在明显的关税税率不对等。 2. 美英贸易协定：10%普征关税叠加行业出口配额。美英双方于 5 月 8 日达成 美英经济繁荣协议一般条款（EPD）：一是部分行业关税税率的相互降低，但设 定了不同程度的限额；二是非关税壁垒的放宽，主要涉及市场准入标准以及共同 监管问题；三是增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's financial data in July showed steady growth, and the A-share market strengthened with increased trading volume. The economy in July still had resilience, with positive policies and various economic indicators showing certain trends. For example, China's July exports increased, and the narrowing M2 - M1 gap indicated improved capital circulation efficiency. In the US, the July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends [2]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs." The US has set new tariff standards, and the current tariff situation may affect goods with high external demand. Concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, and the demand for Japanese government bond auctions has decreased [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the follow - up trends of "anti - involution" in the market are worthy of attention [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: The official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new order index dropped to 49.4, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The US's July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends. On August 13, the A - share market strengthened, and trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2]. Tariff and Interest Rate - The US has set new "reciprocal tariff" standards, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which may affect external - demand - sensitive goods. After the July interest rate meeting, the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is uncertain, and concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, leading to a decrease in the demand for Japanese government bond auctions [3]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, the energy sector's medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose (OPEC + plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August), and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations. After the start of the "anti - involution" market in July, major varieties have retreated to some extent, and future trends will depend on the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in April and the implementation of "anti - involution" [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's financial data from January to July: RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), M0 was 13.28 trillion yuan (up 11.8% year - on - year), and the net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. The social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan [6]. - Other news: The IEA predicts that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Trump will meet with Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The A - share market strengthened on August 13, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2][4][6].

Secondary Market Recap US Treasury markets staged a dramatic reversal last week amid a confluence of policy signals and economic data. The Treasury Department's Quarterly Refunding Statement kept issuance steady while modestly boosting long-term bond buyback caps, lending support to the long end of the curve. Meanwhile, Powell's hawkish tone at the July FOMC meeting (see link) weighed on the short end, pushing September rate cut odds down to just 40%. The game-changer came with Friday's disappointing jobs r ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 美国贸易谈判进展跟踪——海外周报第 99 期 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令，将互惠对等关税暂停期延长至 8 月 1 日，并陆 续向数十个贸易伙伴发送函件，宣布新的关税率将于 8 月 1 日生效，新的关税 率与 4 月 2 号对等关税率大体相同，在 10%-50%之间。此外，7 月 17 日，特 朗普接受采访时表示，将向 150 多个国家发送关税信函，关税率可能是 10%或 15%，还没有最终决定。 目前，从已经披露的 28 个经济体的新定税率来看，巴西最高，为 50%，其次 是缅甸和老挝，为 40%，泰国、柬埔寨、加拿大税率位列第三档，税率分别定 为 36%、36%、35%，欧盟税率则为 30%，日本、韩国税率定为 25%，而越南、 印尼、英国，与美国达成贸易协议（越南并未最终敲定），税率最低，分别定 为 20%、19%、10%。 2、新旧对等关税率的差别？ 从图 1 可以看到，除了巴西以外，特朗普新设定的 8 月 1 日关税率，与 4 月 2 号旧版对等关税率水平大体一致，整体范围区间相差不大。但是，需要注意的 是，二者仍然存在几点关键区别： 1）新关税率将与 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline across all three major indices due to concerns over inflation and the announcement of new tariffs [1] - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU, set to take effect on August 1, prompting the EU to consider strengthening ties with other countries in response [1] - The Chinese and U.S. foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to enhance communication and explore expanded areas of cooperation [1] Group 2 - The EU introduced three supply chain proposals aimed at "de-risking" its economy, with President von der Leyen commenting on the relationship with China [1] - Meituan reported a significant surge in orders, with 150 million orders placed over the weekend and an average delivery time of 34 minutes, highlighting the company's operational efficiency [1] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to hold a press conference in Beijing on July 16, indicating potential developments in the tech sector [1]

Market Overview - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" threat has been postponed to August 1, 2025, leading to a slight decline in U.S. stocks[1] - The inflation pressure from tariff threats has cooled market rate cut expectations, resulting in a rise in U.S. Treasury yields[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.75 basis points to 4.409% during the week from July 7 to July 11[1] Economic Indicators - The June FOMC meeting minutes released hawkish signals, with some dovish Fed officials showing caution towards rate cuts due to tariff impacts[1] - The NFIB small business optimism index for June recorded 98.6, unchanged from expectations and slightly down from the previous value of 98.8[1] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q2 2025 U.S. GDP growth of +2.6%[1] Tariff Implications - Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff deadline to August 1, announcing new tariff rates for 25 countries and regions, including Japan (25%), South Korea (25%), and Brazil (50%)[1] - Market reactions to the tariff threats have been relatively muted, with participants adopting TACO trading strategies, betting on further delays or cancellations of the tariffs[1] - The new tariff rates are seen as a pressure tactic in trade negotiations, with the possibility of further extensions beyond August 1[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by Trump regarding the implementation of a new round of tariffs, termed "Tariff 2.0," which includes significant increases in tariffs on various countries, indicating a more aggressive trade policy approach. Group 1: Tariff Increases - Trump plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, with specific countries facing much higher rates, such as Brazil at 50%, Canada at 35%, and Vietnam at 20% [1][3][4]. - A total of 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, will face tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% starting August 1 [2][3]. - The tariffs on Brazil and Vietnam represent a significant increase from previous levels, with Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50% and Vietnam's from an expected 11% to 20% [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the aggressive tariff announcements, the market has reacted relatively calmly, with the S&P 500 index nearing record highs and large tech stocks showing gains [7][9]. - The market's indifference is attributed to the perception that Trump's threats may be more of a negotiation tactic rather than a firm policy direction, leading to the concept of "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) [9][10]. - The expectation of a potential retreat from these tariffs is reinforced by the historical pattern of Trump backing down under market pressure [10][11].