12月24日盘中，国际现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司4500美元关口，今年以来累计涨幅超过71%，再度刷新历史纪录。这并 非黄金的独舞，贵金属市场已全面沸腾。自今年8月以来，白银价格在四个月内暴涨超90%，钯金上涨近80%，铂金攀升近 50%，黄金同期也录得约35%的显著涨幅。 Pepperstone Group Ltd.策略师Dilin Wu表示："近日的上涨主要由围绕美联储降息预期的提前布局所推动，并在年底市场流 动性相对较薄的背景下被放大。" 在金价强势带动下，国内黄金主题交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）的涨幅与规模水涨船高。目前A股市场的黄金主题ETF主 要分为两类：追踪黄金产业上市公司表现的黄金股票ETF，以及直接跟踪黄金现货价格的黄金商品ETF。前者跟踪SSH黄金 股票指数，波动弹性通常更高；后者则主要跟踪SGE黄金9999或上海金价格指数。 | | | | 最新黄金相关ETF规模排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新基金规模 | 年初至今 | 年涨跌幅 | | | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 合并值 | 蜜金规 ...

规模过百亿的有6只ETF，分别是华安黄金ETF、博时黄金ETF基金、易方达黄金ETF等。 费率"0.2%/年"有黄金ETF华夏、工银瑞信黄金ETF基金和富国金ETF等。 刚刚，金银继续刷爆历史记录，现货黄金逼近4500美元，现货白银一度突破70美元关口，双双刷新历史 纪录，年内金银分别累涨70%和140%，势将创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4484.470 | 41.260 | 0.93% | 70.89% | | 伦敦银现 | 69.339 | 0.303 | 0.44% | 140.04% | | COMEX黄金 | 4512.1 d | 42.7 | 0.96% | 70.96% | | COMEX白银 | 69.430 d | 0.865 | 1.26% | 137.04%C | 黄金、白银创下40年历史新高，国内金价同步突破1000元/克大关，金店金饰价格站上1400元/克，黄金 股ETF今年涨超90%，黄金ETF涨超 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, weak U.S. economic data, and increased market risk aversion [3][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The immediate cause for the spike in gold prices is the market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle [3]. - Weak economic indicators from the U.S. in July, including poor job market growth and underperforming manufacturing and service sectors, have contributed to rising gold prices [3]. - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar and heightened market risk aversion are also significant factors pushing gold prices higher [3]. - Over the past decade, three main drivers have influenced gold prices: global monetary easing, rising geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [3][5]. Group 2: Future Support for Gold Prices - The diversification of gold market participants, particularly the increased allocation by institutional investors such as banks and hedge funds, is a core driver of the current price increase [4]. - Structural factors like ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the expansion of global government debt are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [5]. Group 3: Price Projections and Risks - In the medium to long term, gold prices are likely to maintain an upward trend, with a first target of $4,000 per ounce and potential to exceed $5,000 [6]. - However, technical corrections may occur following the breach of historical highs, leading to increased market volatility [6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a critical variable; a decision to maintain rates could limit gold's upward potential [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to prioritize risk control and consider non-leveraged investment methods, such as purchasing gold bars or gold ETFs [8]. - Setting clear stop-loss levels is crucial for non-professional investors to manage potential losses effectively [9]. - A focus on liquid gold assets and avoiding speculative investments is recommended to ensure flexibility in trading [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by continuous money printing by central banks and the inherent value of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [3][21][57]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - From December 1990 to June 2025, gold prices increased from $388 to $3452.60 per ounce, representing a total increase of 789.85% over 34.51 years, with an annualized return of 6.54% [4]. - Gold experienced two significant drawdowns: a maximum drawdown of -39.12% from February 1996 to July 1999 and -44.36% from September 2011 to December 2015 [7][10]. - After each major drawdown, gold prices eventually reached new highs, indicating resilience in the long-term trend [8]. Group 2: Recent Trends in Gold Prices - From July 2015 to June 2025, gold prices rose by 228.76%, continuing an upward trend for 9.5 years [14]. - Since January 2024, gold prices have increased by 66.65%, from $2071.8 to $3452.60 [18]. - In 2024, gold prices rose by 27.39%, and in 2025, they have already increased by 30.81% [21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is often negative, with periods of both strong and weak correlation observed [22]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, US debt creditworthiness, economic recession risks, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and demand for gold in jewelry and industrial applications [24][26][29][30]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with notable purchases from countries like Poland and China [41][44]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential impact of US debt ceiling negotiations on market stability and gold prices, highlighting the risks associated with political gridlock [38][40]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to support long-term price increases, as seen in recent data showing significant purchases [41][46]. - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with the expectation that even if short-term fluctuations occur, the long-term upward trajectory will prevail [57].