以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 作者： 黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 中国央行已连续12个月增持黄金 ， 10月末黄金储备已达7409万盎司 ， 持续的增持动作彰显了对黄金资产的长期认可 。 但值得关注的是 ， 近 期购金数量呈现逐步缩减态势 ， 10月单月购金不足1吨 ， 增幅创下2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平 。 这种持续增持但增量递减的现象怎 么看 ？ 简单聊聊供参考 。 首先 ， 央行在黄金价格接近4000-4400美元的高位区间仍未停止购金 ， 足以说明当前价位处于央行认可的可购买范围之内 。 这一信号清晰表 明 ， 黄金中长期价格中枢已从之前的3500美元进一步抬升至4000美元甚至更高水平 ， 长期上涨趋势并未改变 。 央行的持续购金始终是投机盘 中长期看涨黄金的核心逻辑 ， 即便增持数量减少 ， 这份对金价的认可也为市场提供了重要信心支撑 。 其次 ， 购金量的逐渐减少 ， 本质是央行不追涨的谨慎策略体现 。 回顾2022年以来的购金历程 ， 明显能看出央行在金价处于低位时增持力度更 大 ， 随着金价持续上行 ， 购金规模逐步 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has decided to impose tariffs on imported gold bars that were previously exempt, leading to significant volatility in the global gold market [1] - Following the tariff announcement, gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange saw a spike of 2% to a record high of $3534.10 per ounce before settling at $3489.40, reflecting a cumulative increase of approximately 2.69% for the week [1] - Two Swiss gold refineries have already reduced or suspended their gold exports to the U.S. due to the tariff policy, which is expected to tighten supply and potentially drive up gold futures prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - Market analyses on gold price trends vary, with factors such as global economic fluctuations, U.S. monetary policy, and central bank purchases influencing prices [3] - A long-term bullish outlook is suggested by industry experts, with a target price of $4000 per ounce and potential for exceeding $5000, although a technical correction may occur after reaching historical highs [3] - Concerns about overvaluation of gold prices are raised, indicating that a decrease in geopolitical risks, reduced central bank purchases, or a halt in U.S. interest rate cuts could lead to a price correction [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold bars in China has stabilized around 700 CNY per gram since mid-March, with experts suggesting a long-term upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1] Group 1: Current Price Trends - Domestic investment gold bar prices have been hovering around the 700 CNY per gram mark for over four months, having previously exceeded 800 CNY per gram [1] - Last week, gold prices retreated from a high of 3400 USD per ounce, indicating volatility influenced by trade tensions [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Trade wars and tariff disputes have significantly impacted gold prices, with prices rising during intense trade conflicts and falling when agreements are reached [1] - Experts predict that ongoing geopolitical, economic, and military tensions between nations will continue to support a long-term increase in gold prices [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices are experiencing volatility, with uncertainty in the market regarding the direction of trends [1] - Traders are facing challenges in determining whether to adopt a bullish or bearish stance [1] - A live session is being conducted by TTPS Trading School to provide insights on market strategies [1] Market Analysis - The current market conditions indicate a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments among traders [1] - The ongoing fluctuations in gold prices suggest a need for careful positioning by market participants [1] - The live broadcast aims to assist traders in navigating these uncertain market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by continuous money printing by central banks and the inherent value of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [3][21][57]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - From December 1990 to June 2025, gold prices increased from $388 to $3452.60 per ounce, representing a total increase of 789.85% over 34.51 years, with an annualized return of 6.54% [4]. - Gold experienced two significant drawdowns: a maximum drawdown of -39.12% from February 1996 to July 1999 and -44.36% from September 2011 to December 2015 [7][10]. - After each major drawdown, gold prices eventually reached new highs, indicating resilience in the long-term trend [8]. Group 2: Recent Trends in Gold Prices - From July 2015 to June 2025, gold prices rose by 228.76%, continuing an upward trend for 9.5 years [14]. - Since January 2024, gold prices have increased by 66.65%, from $2071.8 to $3452.60 [18]. - In 2024, gold prices rose by 27.39%, and in 2025, they have already increased by 30.81% [21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is often negative, with periods of both strong and weak correlation observed [22]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, US debt creditworthiness, economic recession risks, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and demand for gold in jewelry and industrial applications [24][26][29][30]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with notable purchases from countries like Poland and China [41][44]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential impact of US debt ceiling negotiations on market stability and gold prices, highlighting the risks associated with political gridlock [38][40]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to support long-term price increases, as seen in recent data showing significant purchases [41][46]. - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with the expectation that even if short-term fluctuations occur, the long-term upward trajectory will prevail [57].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and easing trade tensions, raising questions about whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a trend reversal, and whether expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts can provide relief [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a strengthening US dollar [1] - Easing trade tensions are contributing to the current market dynamics affecting gold prices [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current situation represents a temporary fluctuation or a more significant trend reversal in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The potential impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations on gold prices is being closely monitored [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices by $100 raises questions about the sustainability of the upward trend in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The current price drop suggests that the bullish trend in gold may be coming to an end [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Various economic indicators and geopolitical events are influencing the fluctuations in gold prices [1] - Investors are reassessing their positions in gold as alternative investments become more attractive [1]