▲ATFX图 从技术结构看，黄金整体仍运行在清晰的中期上升趋势中。图表显示，金价自 11 月以来沿着上升趋势线稳步抬升，前期下行趋势线已被有效突破并转化 为中期结构支撑，确认趋势由整理转为单边上行。近期金价在快速拉升后出现剧烈回调，但回落并未破坏上升趋势线，显示抛压更多来自高位获利了结， 而非趋势性反转。目前市场正围绕关键支撑区间反复博弈。 ATFX：在 2025 年年末阶段，全球金融市场的注意力重新集中到美联储政策信号之上。本周即将公布的 FOMC 会议纪要，正值黄金价格刷新历史高位之 后，成为左右短线情绪与趋势延续性的关键变量。在通胀回落、就业走弱与政策分歧加剧的背景下，市场试图从纪要细节中判断，美联储当前的"观望姿 态"究竟意味着降息周期接近尾声，还是为后续进一步宽松保留空间。 | ▲ATFX图 | | --- | 从宏观环境看，美国经济正在释放出明显的后周期特征。通胀已较年中显著降温，但仍未完全回到美联储 2% 的目标区间。核心 PCE 维持在约 2.8%，11 月 CPI 同比约 2.7%，显示去通胀进程正在推进，但服务业通胀的黏性依旧存在，使政策层对金融条件过早放松保持谨慎。与此同时，就业市场的降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, indicating a long-term recognition of gold assets. However, the monthly gold purchases have decreased, with October's purchases being less than 1 ton, marking the lowest increase since the resumption of purchases in November 2024 [3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Purchasing Strategy - The PBOC's continued purchases at gold prices near $4,000-$4,400 demonstrate that these levels are within an acceptable range for the bank, suggesting a long-term price center for gold has shifted from $3,500 to potentially above $4,000 [4]. - The gradual reduction in gold purchases reflects a cautious strategy by the PBOC, which tends to increase purchases when prices are low and decrease them as prices rise. This indicates that if gold prices experience unexpected adjustments, the PBOC is likely to increase purchases again, limiting downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - The reduced purchasing volume is seen as a tactical adjustment rather than a strategic shift, maintaining the long-term investment logic in gold [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The decrease in the PBOC's gold purchase increment suggests that short-term reliance on the central bank alone may not be sufficient to drive significant gold price increases, necessitating attention to other core factors such as global capital flows and ETF holdings [5]. - The market's attitude towards the PBOC's gold purchases has become more rational, indicating that as long as the purchasing actions continue, even at lower volumes, they will not be perceived as negative signals. Historical trends show that temporary halts in purchases lead to short-term volatility but do not alter the long-term trend [5]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term trends and core driving factors rather than short-term fluctuations in purchase volumes, while also considering market volatility as an opportunity for tactical adjustments to enhance returns [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has decided to impose tariffs on imported gold bars that were previously exempt, leading to significant volatility in the global gold market [1] - Following the tariff announcement, gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange saw a spike of 2% to a record high of $3534.10 per ounce before settling at $3489.40, reflecting a cumulative increase of approximately 2.69% for the week [1] - Two Swiss gold refineries have already reduced or suspended their gold exports to the U.S. due to the tariff policy, which is expected to tighten supply and potentially drive up gold futures prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - Market analyses on gold price trends vary, with factors such as global economic fluctuations, U.S. monetary policy, and central bank purchases influencing prices [3] - A long-term bullish outlook is suggested by industry experts, with a target price of $4000 per ounce and potential for exceeding $5000, although a technical correction may occur after reaching historical highs [3] - Concerns about overvaluation of gold prices are raised, indicating that a decrease in geopolitical risks, reduced central bank purchases, or a halt in U.S. interest rate cuts could lead to a price correction [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold bars in China has stabilized around 700 CNY per gram since mid-March, with experts suggesting a long-term upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1] Group 1: Current Price Trends - Domestic investment gold bar prices have been hovering around the 700 CNY per gram mark for over four months, having previously exceeded 800 CNY per gram [1] - Last week, gold prices retreated from a high of 3400 USD per ounce, indicating volatility influenced by trade tensions [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Trade wars and tariff disputes have significantly impacted gold prices, with prices rising during intense trade conflicts and falling when agreements are reached [1] - Experts predict that ongoing geopolitical, economic, and military tensions between nations will continue to support a long-term increase in gold prices [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices are experiencing volatility, with uncertainty in the market regarding the direction of trends [1] - Traders are facing challenges in determining whether to adopt a bullish or bearish stance [1] - A live session is being conducted by TTPS Trading School to provide insights on market strategies [1] Market Analysis - The current market conditions indicate a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments among traders [1] - The ongoing fluctuations in gold prices suggest a need for careful positioning by market participants [1] - The live broadcast aims to assist traders in navigating these uncertain market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by continuous money printing by central banks and the inherent value of gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [3][21][57]. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - From December 1990 to June 2025, gold prices increased from $388 to $3452.60 per ounce, representing a total increase of 789.85% over 34.51 years, with an annualized return of 6.54% [4]. - Gold experienced two significant drawdowns: a maximum drawdown of -39.12% from February 1996 to July 1999 and -44.36% from September 2011 to December 2015 [7][10]. - After each major drawdown, gold prices eventually reached new highs, indicating resilience in the long-term trend [8]. Group 2: Recent Trends in Gold Prices - From July 2015 to June 2025, gold prices rose by 228.76%, continuing an upward trend for 9.5 years [14]. - Since January 2024, gold prices have increased by 66.65%, from $2071.8 to $3452.60 [18]. - In 2024, gold prices rose by 27.39%, and in 2025, they have already increased by 30.81% [21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices is often negative, with periods of both strong and weak correlation observed [22]. - Key factors affecting gold prices include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, US debt creditworthiness, economic recession risks, trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and demand for gold in jewelry and industrial applications [24][26][29][30]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with notable purchases from countries like Poland and China [41][44]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential impact of US debt ceiling negotiations on market stability and gold prices, highlighting the risks associated with political gridlock [38][40]. - The ongoing trend of central banks accumulating gold is expected to support long-term price increases, as seen in recent data showing significant purchases [41][46]. - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with the expectation that even if short-term fluctuations occur, the long-term upward trajectory will prevail [57].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a continuous decline, influenced by a rebound in the US dollar and easing trade tensions, raising questions about whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a trend reversal, and whether expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts can provide relief [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a strengthening US dollar [1] - Easing trade tensions are contributing to the current market dynamics affecting gold prices [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current situation represents a temporary fluctuation or a more significant trend reversal in the gold market [1] Group 2 - The potential impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations on gold prices is being closely monitored [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices by $100 raises questions about the sustainability of the upward trend in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The current price drop suggests that the bullish trend in gold may be coming to an end [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Various economic indicators and geopolitical events are influencing the fluctuations in gold prices [1] - Investors are reassessing their positions in gold as alternative investments become more attractive [1]