以下文章来源于笔记财经晨会 ，作者笔记小助手 笔记财经晨会 . 有观点的财经晨会 点击上方 蓝字"笔记财经晨会" 关注我们 今日金曲：周杰伦-霍元甲 笔友们早上好！点击上方音频收听详细晨会内容，音频末尾放送今日金曲，也可以留言区点歌哦！ 另外今天有个神秘预告！ 【20251226笔记晨会】 一、权益市场： 美国走的是"民营主导、政府助攻"路线，政府只负责给钱当"天使投资人"，再当大客户捧场，剩下的全靠企业自己卷。 头号种子选手是SpaceX！老板马斯克被网友戏称为"太空马保国" ，绝对实力玩家——猎鹰9号火箭能回收再利用，发射次数多到数不清，回收成功 率高到离谱； 星链计划更是"太空圈地运动" ，截至2025年堆了约9千颗卫星，用户破800万，赚钱能力堪比"太空印钞机"。 （一）商业航天PK：国企引领+民营护航，大战太空"马保国" 1. 美国：民营大佬"单打独斗"，马斯克堪称"太空卷王" 其他选手： 贝索斯的蓝色起源，用新谢泼德号搞太空旅游，让土豪们体验"短暂失重拍朋友圈"； 新格伦火箭正在憋大招，近地轨道运力超70吨，想 抢大型卫星发射的"大蛋糕"；火箭实验室靠着电子号小型火箭，在小卫星市场稳稳占坑。 2. ...

近日，一张特别的"门票"正在特斯拉股东间引发骚动——它可能通向一场估值1.5万亿美元的史上最大 IPO。与此同时，在大洋彼岸，一批中国科技公司的创始人正彻夜不眠，准备向证监会递交他们科创板 的招股书。连接这两场资本盛宴的，是同一个关键词：商业航天。 图片来源：视觉中国 2025年的最后一个月，全球资本市场的目光几乎都被这个关键词牢牢锁定。一边是华尔街，投资大亨比 尔·阿克曼提出一项创新方案，计划通过特殊目的收购权（SPARCs），让特斯拉股东能直接投资埃隆·马 斯克的太空探索技术公司（SpaceX），或将权利变现。这被视作SpaceX冲刺史上最大规模首次公开募 股的明确前奏。市场传闻其目标估值高达1.5万亿美元，接近沙特阿美创下的历史纪录。 另一边，中国证监会的官网上，一批名为"蓝箭航天"、"星河动力"、"天兵科技"的企业IPO辅导状态更 新为"完成"，标志着2025年成为"中国商业航天资本化元年"，一场集体登陆科创板的竞速赛已经鸣枪。 两者力量看似颇为悬殊，毕竟SpaceX的单体估值是目前所有冲刺上市的中国商业航天公司总和的数十 倍。但它们指向同一个毋庸置疑的事实：商业航天，这个融合了尖端技术、国家战略与万 ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Chinese government is providing strong support for commercial space through policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power" and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration [1] - Despite a promising outlook, the industry faces significant supply chain challenges, particularly in upstream infrastructure, with a consensus that the bottleneck is not in downstream applications but in launch capacity and costs [1] - The recent successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the upcoming maiden flight of the Long March 12甲 rocket are seen as significant milestones for China's commercial space sector, potentially reshaping market dynamics [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable rocket, utilizing a self-developed liquid oxygen-methane engine [3][7] - The Long March 12甲 rocket, developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, emphasizes a stable supply chain by using a liquid oxygen-kerosene engine, reflecting a dual risk approach in China's aerospace strategy [8] - The ultimate goal of reusable rocket technology is to significantly reduce launch costs, with the Zhuque-3 aiming to lower the cost per kilogram to below 20,000 RMB, enhancing China's competitive edge in the global market [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that within three years, launch prices in China could approach those of SpaceX, with the potential to undercut SpaceX's Falcon 9 prices in about five years [11] - The competitive focus in the coming years will center on cost control, reliability, fulfillment capabilities, and service responsiveness, as companies strive to meet the growing demand for satellite deployment [11] - The challenges faced by Chinese rocket companies include not only technological hurdles but also the need for systematic engineering and industrialization to catch up with established players like SpaceX [11]

Core Insights - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1][11] - Policy support is intensifying, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power," and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration [1][11] - Despite a promising outlook, supply chain weaknesses remain evident, particularly in upstream infrastructure, which is seen as a critical bottleneck for the industry [1][11] Industry Developments - December marked significant advancements in China's reusable rocket technology, highlighted by the launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which, despite a recovery failure, provided valuable experience for future developments [2][12] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket, showcasing advanced features such as a reaction control system and landing legs [2][12] - Following Zhuque-3, the Long March 12甲 rocket, developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, is set for its maiden flight, indicating a rapid progression in China's commercial space capabilities [2][12][13] Market Dynamics - Currently, only the United States has mastered reusable rocket technology, with SpaceX leading the way, having completed over 500 launches and capturing 86% of the global orbital payload market in 2023 [3][13] - In contrast, China's commercial launch capacity remains limited, with a market share in commercial payloads only in the single digits, insufficient to support the ambitious deployment of satellite constellations [3][14] - The urgency for breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology is underscored by the need to address the significant launch capacity gap in the market [4][15] Technological Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket's development process emphasized a unique engineering approach, integrating market demand insights and innovative materials like stainless steel to reduce production cycles [6][16] - The Long March 12甲 rocket adopts a different strategy, focusing on stable supply chains and leveraging domestic resources to ensure reliable operations [7][17] - The Tianlong-3 rocket, set for its first flight, aims for high reliability and low-cost delivery, utilizing advanced materials and 3D printing technology [7][17] Cost Reduction Strategies - The ultimate goal of reusable rocket technology is to significantly lower launch costs, with a focus on recovering the first stage of rockets, which constitutes the highest cost component [8][19] - The Zhuque-3 is designed for 20 reuses, with operational costs expected to decrease by approximately 45% after five uses, reflecting a model of high initial investment followed by diminishing marginal costs [8][19] - The target cost for launching per kilogram is set below 20,000 RMB, which would enhance China's competitive edge in the global market [20] Competitive Landscape - The future competition in the rocket market will center on cost control, reliability, fulfillment capabilities, and service responsiveness [10][20] - Chinese companies face significant challenges in catching up with established players like SpaceX, which has spent over a decade refining its technology [10][21] - The ongoing developments in China's commercial space sector indicate a gradual resolution of previously deemed insurmountable challenges, as companies continue to innovate and validate their technologies [21]

| 特性 | 详情 | | --- | --- | | 预计发射窗口 | 2025年12月15日至17日期间 1 5 | | 研发机构 | 中国航天科技集团有限公司第八研究院（上海航天技术研究院） ↑ 4 | | 核心目标 | 首次发射即实现卫星成功入轨，并完成一子级垂直回收 1 4 | | 火箭级数 | 两级构型 7 | | 一子级动力 | 7台 "龙云"液氧甲烷发动机（可重复使用50次以上） ↑ 7 | | 二子级动力 | 1台真空版 YF-209 液氧甲烷发动机 （）7 | | 运载能力 | 近地轨道（LEO）12吨，太阳同步轨道（SSO）7.3吨 7 | | 计划回收场 | 日肃省武威市民勤具 1 2 | | | 证指数 000001 | | 九转 加自洗 均线 窗 ◆ ▼ | | | | 18 883418 943.257 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 大盘K线区 可比 | | | | | 2025-12-12 | | | | | 目用个数: | | | | | ...