"压轴" 1 2月 作者丨彭新 编辑丨倪雨晴 2025年是中国的商业航天事业从技术积累走向爆发的一年。 这一年，多型号民营航天企业完成火箭发射试验，随着卫星互联网组网加速，商业逻辑逐渐清晰，多型号新型火箭的研制节奏已全 面按下快进键。 同时，政策红利在这一年密集释放，为商业航天提供了有力的支持。"十五五"规划建议将建设"航天强国"纳入重点任务；随后，国 家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》，将商业航天纳入国家航天发展总体布局； 11月末，国家航天局设立商业航天司，正式开启"专司专管"新阶段。在国家战略的引导下，商业航天正步入系统化、规范化发展的 快车道。 尽管行业前景广阔，但供应链端的短板依然清晰。市场共识是，当前制约中国商业航天的胜负手并非下游应用，而是上游基础设 施。以卫星互联网为例，在发射组网环节，我国面临火箭运力不足、发射成本较高等瓶颈。因此，除传统国家队外，亟需民营运载 火箭力量进一步取得突破，以填补庞大的运力缺口。 SpaceX则是可回收火箭的绝对先锋，旗下的猎鹰9号已完成500余次发射，其凭借极高的复用效率，重新定义了太空运输。2023年， Spa ...

"压轴"12月 进入12月，中国可回收火箭迎来了真正意义上的"压轴之月"。 同时，政策红利在这一年密集释放，为商业航天提供了有力的支持。"十五五"规划建议将建设"航天强 国"纳入重点任务；随后，国家航天局印发《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025 —2027年）》，将商业航天纳入国家航天发展总体布局；11月末，国家航天局设立商业航天司，正式开 启"专司专管"新阶段。在国家战略的引导下，商业航天正步入系统化、规范化发展的快车道。 尽管行业前景广阔，但供应链端的短板依然清晰。市场共识是，当前制约中国商业航天的胜负手并非下 游应用，而是上游基础设施。以卫星互联网为例，在发射组网环节，我国面临火箭运力不足、发射成本 较高等瓶颈。因此，除传统国家队外，亟需民营运载火箭力量进一步取得突破，以填补庞大的运力缺 口。 12月3日，朱雀三号遥一运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射升空。火箭二级精准进入预定轨道， 按程序完成了飞行任务。此次任务同时开展了火箭一级回收验证，但过程中发生异常燃烧，未实现在回 收场坪的软着陆。尽管回收试验失利，但这一成绩仍被视为中国民营航天力量为火箭回收技术积累了宝 贵经验。 202 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant step in China's commercial space industry, despite the failure of the recovery test, providing valuable data for future improvements [1][2]. Group 1: Zhuque-3 Rocket Overview - Zhuque-3 is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, and reusable liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace [1]. - The rocket features a two-stage design with a diameter of 4.5 meters and a total length of 66.1 meters, powered by Blue Arrow's self-developed Tianque series engines [1]. - The first stage is equipped with a control system for vertical landing recovery, although the recovery attempt failed due to an abnormal combustion incident [1]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The test flight provided critical engineering data that will support the optimization of future rocket designs and enhance overall reliability [2]. - The launch is seen as a confidence booster for China's commercial space sector, indicating that the mission execution met expectations despite the recovery setback [2]. - The upcoming launches of two additional reusable rockets in December highlight the increasing frequency of such missions in China's commercial space landscape [3]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The industry anticipates a shift towards regular operational flights of reusable rockets, with ongoing improvements based on data collected from test flights [2][3]. - The successful collection of key data during the Zhuque-3 mission fills a gap in China's capabilities regarding large rocket vertical recovery [3]. - Continuous iteration and technical enhancements are expected to bring China closer to achieving reliable reusable launch vehicle operations [3].

每经记者｜淡忠奎 刘旭强 每经编辑｜刘艳美 朱雀腾飞，逐梦星河。 12月3日，蓝箭航天朱雀三号遥一运载火箭成功首飞入轨，但未能如愿完成火箭一级回收验证任务。 作为中国商业航天首次进行的可重复使用火箭轨道级发射验证，这次任务虽"喜忧参半"，但积累起经验和宝贵数据，仍然是值得铭记的重要一步。 当前，商业航天已成为大国竞逐的新焦点。中国商业航天自2015年起步，如今正迎来"技术突破"和"规模爆发"双重拐点。 不久前，国家航天局发布《国家航天局推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025—2027年）》，将商业航天纳入国家航天发展总体布局。近期，国家航 天局还设立商业航天司，标志着我国商业航天产业迎来专职监管机构，未来将持续推动我国商业航天高质量发展，产业链有望全面受益。 产业扩张期加速到来，各地也在加紧布局。不完全统计，全国至少20个省份已出台支持政策，角力商业航天。从低成本、高可靠、快响应、可复用的商业运 载火箭建设，到卫星制造、火箭发射、卫星应用等领域，谁又能率先突围？ 集体"攻坚" 航天工业强弱，是衡量一个国家经济、科技水平和国防实力的重要标志。而作为以市场为主导、以盈利为目的的商业航天，是航天工业的新生力量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket by Blue Arrow Aerospace marks significant technological advancements in reusable rocket technology, despite a failure in the recovery test of the first stage [1][2]. Group 1: Launch Details - The Zhuque-3 rocket was launched from the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Area and completed its flight mission as planned, with the second stage entering the designated orbit [1]. - Key flight actions, including liftoff, stage separation, and engine ignition, were executed as scheduled, demonstrating stable and reliable performance [2]. Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - The mission achieved several technological breakthroughs, including the first domestic flight of a new reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket design, and the integration of a nine-engine parallel liquid oxygen-methane propulsion system [2]. - Innovations included the use of high-strength stainless steel and advanced laser welding techniques for fuel tank manufacturing, as well as high-precision return navigation and control technology for reusable rockets [2]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Despite the failure of the recovery test, multiple reusable rockets are set to be tested in China, indicating imminent breakthroughs in the country's reusable rocket capabilities [2].

Core Insights - The report from Dongxing Securities emphasizes the acceleration of China's aerospace industry and the development of satellite internet as key components of the modern industrial system outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] Group 1: Satellite Internet Development - As of October 2025, China Star Network has launched a total of 93 satellites this year, including experimental satellites [2] - The successful first flights of the Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 rockets are expected to establish them as the main launch vehicles for domestic satellite internet, leading to significant advancements in 2026 [2][1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Market Expansion - The transition from large-scale investment to efficient development in communication and computing networks indicates a shift in national infrastructure strategy, with ongoing expansion in related markets such as base station equipment and data centers [3][4] - By mid-2025, the number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.549 million, with a net increase of 298,000 from the previous year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [4] Group 3: Quantum Technology and 6G Development - The report highlights the early-stage development of quantum technology and 6G as new economic growth points, with a focus on creating a high-tech industrial ecosystem [5][6] - The global 6G development timeline includes the start of technical standardization in 2025, with the first standards expected to be frozen by 2029 and commercial deployment by 2030 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" investment rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance that is stronger than the market benchmark by over 5% [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of commercial aerospace development as a key driver for the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of building a modern industrial system and advancing new economic growth points such as quantum technology and sixth-generation mobile communication [2][11]. - The communication and computing network infrastructure is transitioning from large-scale investment to efficient development, with ongoing expansion in related markets such as base station equipment, IDC, liquid cooling, optical modules, and computing chips [3][10]. - The report notes significant advancements in satellite internet, with a total of 93 satellites launched by China Star Network in 2025, and the successful launch of 18 satellites in one mission by Shanghai Yanjin Satellite [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of mid-2025, China has 4.549 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 298,000 from the previous year, while the number of 5G-A networks is expanding across over 300 cities [10]. - The smart computing industry is experiencing growth, with the total number of operational computing center racks reaching 10.85 million, a 23.3% increase from the end of 2024 [10]. Future Developments - The report discusses the early-stage development of quantum technology and sixth-generation mobile communication, with significant potential for future economic contributions [11][12]. - The global 6G development timeline is outlined, with key milestones set for 2025 and 2029, indicating a strategic push for technological advancement [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies within the satellite internet industry, including China Satellite (600118.SH) and China Satcom (601698.SH), as potential investment opportunities [14]. - For communication networks and computing networks, companies such as ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) and Xinwei Technology (688387.SH) are highlighted as key players [15].

Core Points - The Tianlong-3 rocket's first stage propulsion system successfully completed a maritime test in Shandong Haiyang, marking a significant milestone for China's private aerospace sector [1][3] - The Tianlong-3 is the largest liquid rocket developed by a private company in China, measuring 72 meters in length and weighing approximately 600 tons at launch [3] - The rocket's first stage is equipped with nine "Tianhuo-12" engines, capable of launching 36 satellites in a single mission, supporting both cargo transport to the Chinese space station and medium-to-high orbit satellite launches [3] Breakthroughs - This test marks the world's first maritime propulsion system test, validating the operational coordination and correctness of the first stage rocket systems [3] - The test also set a new record for thrust in China's commercial aerospace liquid rocket engines [3] Future Plans - The Tianlong-3 is scheduled for its maiden flight by the end of 2025 [3] - The test was conducted on the HOS-1 platform, which is China's first semi-fixed maritime test platform developed by Shandong Maritime Commercial Aerospace Launch Service Co., Ltd [3] Operational Capacity - The successful test indicates that the Dongfang Aerospace Port now possesses full system testing capabilities for liquid rockets [3] - To date, the Dongfang Aerospace Port has supported 18 maritime launch missions for solid rockets, along with three propulsion system tests and two flight recovery tests for liquid rockets [3]