Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][3] - The company plans a modest increase in domestic market supply for 2025, aiming to stabilize market prices while addressing diverse consumer needs through new product launches [7][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 91.93% and a net margin of 52.27%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines in these metrics [6] - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.28% and 19.65% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.54 yuan, with a net profit forecast of 93.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [12][10] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its distribution network for the sauce-flavored liquor, with wholesale and direct sales revenues increasing by 19.73% and 11.32% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company plans to adjust its product offerings in 2025, focusing on high-value products and enhancing its presence in the catering market [8][9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining the market price stability of its flagship product, the 53°500ml Moutai liquor [10] - The company is actively pursuing consumer engagement strategies to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [9]

贵州茅台(600519) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 06 日 24 年量价齐升，25 年目标积极 ——贵州茅台 2024 年业绩点评报告 投资要点 24 年酒类产品收入 1706.12 亿元(同比+13.71%)，量/价同比增 13.73%/1.90%。茅 台酒/系列酒收入分别为 1459.28/246.84 亿元（同比+15.28%/+19.65%），毛利率分 别同比变动-0.06/+0.14pct 至 94.06%/79.87%，其中系列酒收入占比同比提升 0.45pct 至 14.47%。茅台酒量/价分别同比增 10.22%/4.59%，系列酒量/价分别同 比增 18.47%/1.00%，茅台酒及系列酒均呈量价齐升态势，我们认为茅台酒价增 主因 23 年末提价，系列酒收入占比提升主因 1935 在 700 元价位实现放量。 ❑ 直销收入占比略有回落，国外市场收入首破 50 亿元 24 年直销/批发渠道收入分别 748.43/957.69 亿元（同比+11.32%/+19.73%），毛利 率同比变动-0.13/+0.13pct 至 95.33%/89.42%，其中直销收入占比减少 1.80pct ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing external environmental pressures in 2023-2024, with a reasonable revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, following two years of over 10% sales growth. The focus will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and nurturing consumer groups, presenting opportunities for strong companies to further expand their advantages during industry adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue and net profit of 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, slightly exceeding forecasts [1]. - The company’s sales cash receipts increased by 11.6% to 182.6 billion, while contract liabilities decreased by 32.1% to 9.59 billion [2]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 rose by 38.9% to 92.46 billion, supported by increased sales of acceptance bills [2]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons, with a price increase of 4.6% to 3.14 million per ton, driven by traditional channel price hikes [2]. - Series liquor sales volume grew by 18.5% to 36,920 tons, with a modest price increase of 1.0% to 669,000 per ton, influenced by pricing pressures from the 1935 product line [2]. - The wholesale channel revenue rose by 19.7% to 95.77 billion, while direct sales revenue increased by 11.3% to 74.84 billion, despite a decline in direct sales unit price [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 92.0%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor gross margins at 94.1% and 79.9% respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased marginally by 0.12 percentage points to 49.5% [3]. - Increased sales expenses were offset by reduced management costs, leading to a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company plans to increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor in 2025, with expectations for kilogram packaging to drive further price increases [4]. - The company maintains a target valuation of 25 times PE, with a target price of 1,870 yuan, supported by a dividend yield of over 3.5% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1870 CNY, while the current stock price is 1549.02 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a reasonable revenue growth slowdown to around 9% in 2025, following two years of sales growth exceeding 10%. This is attributed to external environmental pressures faced in 2023 and 2024. The easing of volume pressure is anticipated to stabilize the wholesale price [1][6]. - The focus for the company will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and quality, as well as cultivating consumer groups. Historically, industry adjustment periods have provided opportunities for strong companies to further exploit their potential and expand their advantages [1][6]. - The current valuation stands at 21x PE, with a dividend yield maintained above 3.5%, indicating a safety margin for investors [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1741.4 billion CNY and a net profit of 862.3 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, respectively [6][7]. - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in 2024 was 1459 billion CNY and 247 billion CNY, showing growth of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively. Moutai liquor sales volume increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons [6][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 924.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach 190.1 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.78 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.7 [7][16]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to remain stable around 49.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 37.9% [16].