Core Viewpoint - The performance slowdown of Kweichow Moutai has significantly impacted its ecosystem, shifting distributors from a "lying down to earn" mode to a "survival" mode, with various market indicators reflecting this change [1][2]. Financial Performance - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 financial report shows the lowest revenue and net profit growth since 2015, with a revenue growth of 6.3% in the first three quarters. To meet the annual target of 9%, Q4 must achieve approximately 59 billion yuan in revenue, requiring a year-on-year growth of over 17% [2][3]. - The company’s revenue accounts for 22% of the overall sales in the liquor industry, indicating that its slowdown reflects broader industry pressures [2]. Market Dynamics - The pawn price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1,000 yuan, leading some pawn shops to suspend alcohol collection. Additionally, scalpers have halted purchases due to daily losses, and the collectibles market has cooled significantly [1][2][5]. - The financial attributes of Moutai are diminishing, with fewer customers willing to pawn Moutai compared to gold, as the latter has retained higher value [6]. Distributor Challenges - Distributors are facing a decline in customer demand, with many transitioning to alternative revenue streams, such as selling cigarettes and lottery tickets, to cope with the downturn [10][11]. - The sales of Moutai series liquor have also declined, with a 7.78% drop in revenue for the first three quarters, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics [11][12]. Leadership Changes - Kweichow Moutai is undergoing its fourth leadership change in five years, with the new chairman expected to bring new strategies and policies, which may create uncertainty among distributors and the market [2][3]. Collectibles and Market Sentiment - The collectibles market for Moutai has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping by at least one-third compared to previous acquisition prices, leading to a shift in management and operational strategies within Moutai's collectible associations [8][9]. - The belief in the value of Moutai is eroding, with former scalpers now shifting their focus to other products, indicating a broader loss of confidence in the Moutai brand [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][3] - The company plans a modest increase in domestic market supply for 2025, aiming to stabilize market prices while addressing diverse consumer needs through new product launches [7][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 91.93% and a net margin of 52.27%, indicating stable profitability despite slight declines in these metrics [6] - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.28% and 19.65% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 74.54 yuan, with a net profit forecast of 93.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [12][10] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its distribution network for the sauce-flavored liquor, with wholesale and direct sales revenues increasing by 19.73% and 11.32% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company plans to adjust its product offerings in 2025, focusing on high-value products and enhancing its presence in the catering market [8][9] Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining the market price stability of its flagship product, the 53°500ml Moutai liquor [10] - The company is actively pursuing consumer engagement strategies to adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer preferences [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from liquor products reached 170.612 billion yuan, with a volume and price increase of 13.73% and 1.90% respectively [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, ensuring stable pricing for its flagship products [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 51.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%, with a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, up 16.21% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.93%, with a net profit margin of 52.27% [4] - The company distributed a total cash dividend of 64.7 billion yuan, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 75% [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.928 billion yuan, up 15.28% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 24.684 billion yuan, up 19.65% [2] - The proportion of series liquor revenue increased by 0.45 percentage points to 14.47% [2] Market Dynamics - Domestic and international market revenues were 165.423 billion yuan and 5.189 billion yuan respectively, with the international market revenue surpassing 5 billion yuan for the first time [3] - Direct sales and wholesale channel revenues were 74.843 billion yuan and 95.769 billion yuan, with direct sales accounting for 43.87% of total revenue [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a balanced growth in volume and price, with a projected revenue growth of 9.03%, 8.20%, and 8.16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][14] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.85 yuan, 80.94 yuan, and 87.60 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [14]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing external environmental pressures in 2023-2024, with a reasonable revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, following two years of over 10% sales growth. The focus will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and nurturing consumer groups, presenting opportunities for strong companies to further expand their advantages during industry adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue and net profit of 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, slightly exceeding forecasts [1]. - The company’s sales cash receipts increased by 11.6% to 182.6 billion, while contract liabilities decreased by 32.1% to 9.59 billion [2]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 rose by 38.9% to 92.46 billion, supported by increased sales of acceptance bills [2]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons, with a price increase of 4.6% to 3.14 million per ton, driven by traditional channel price hikes [2]. - Series liquor sales volume grew by 18.5% to 36,920 tons, with a modest price increase of 1.0% to 669,000 per ton, influenced by pricing pressures from the 1935 product line [2]. - The wholesale channel revenue rose by 19.7% to 95.77 billion, while direct sales revenue increased by 11.3% to 74.84 billion, despite a decline in direct sales unit price [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 92.0%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor gross margins at 94.1% and 79.9% respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased marginally by 0.12 percentage points to 49.5% [3]. - Increased sales expenses were offset by reduced management costs, leading to a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The company plans to increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor in 2025, with expectations for kilogram packaging to drive further price increases [4]. - The company maintains a target valuation of 25 times PE, with a target price of 1,870 yuan, supported by a dividend yield of over 3.5% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1870 CNY, while the current stock price is 1549.02 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a reasonable revenue growth slowdown to around 9% in 2025, following two years of sales growth exceeding 10%. This is attributed to external environmental pressures faced in 2023 and 2024. The easing of volume pressure is anticipated to stabilize the wholesale price [1][6]. - The focus for the company will shift towards enhancing channel service capabilities and quality, as well as cultivating consumer groups. Historically, industry adjustment periods have provided opportunities for strong companies to further exploit their potential and expand their advantages [1][6]. - The current valuation stands at 21x PE, with a dividend yield maintained above 3.5%, indicating a safety margin for investors [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1741.4 billion CNY and a net profit of 862.3 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.7% and 15.4%, respectively [6][7]. - The sales revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in 2024 was 1459 billion CNY and 247 billion CNY, showing growth of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively. Moutai liquor sales volume increased by 10.2% to 46,413 tons [6][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 38.9% year-on-year to 924.6 billion CNY in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 75% [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach 190.1 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9% [7][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.78 CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.7 [7][16]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to remain stable around 49.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 37.9% [16].