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——流动性和机构行为周度观察:当前收短放长不等同于负债成本提升-20251209
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-08 23:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" by the central bank does not necessarily mean an increase in liability costs. The central bank's "shortening receipt and lengthening issuance" in terms of quantity is more significant, and the large - scale long - end issuance is more effective in alleviating the liability pressure of financial institutions, especially banks [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In December 2025, the central bank conducted a 3 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan at the same volume. From December 1st - 5th, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 84.8 billion yuan, and from December 8th - 12th, 66.38 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In November, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 5 billion yuan [6]. - From December 1st - 5th, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.30% and 1.36% respectively, down 1.2 basis points and 2.3 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.44% and 1.49% respectively, down 1.9 basis points and 3.9 basis points compared with November 24th - 28th [6]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net government bond payment was about 18.66 billion yuan, about 14.23 billion yuan less than November 24th - 30th. From December 8th - 14th, the net government bond payment is expected to be - 79.52 billion yuan [7]. 2. Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - As of December 5th, 2025, the maturity yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.5793% and 1.6150% respectively, up 13.4 basis points and 4.0 basis points compared with November 28th. The 1 - year NCD maturity yield was 1.6550%, up 1.5 basis points compared with November 28th [8]. - From December 1st - 7th, the net financing of NCDs was about 4.71 billion yuan. From December 8th - 14th, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 106.24 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the pressure of maturity renewal [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - From December 1st - 5th, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, up from 107.32% in November 24th - 28th [9]. - On December 5th, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, a weekly increase of 0.79 years, at the 84.1% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 1.80 years, a weekly increase of 0.24 years, at the 51.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].
【债市观察】央行流动性操作“收短放长” 超长债跌创年内新低
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 03:34
新华财经北京12月8日电(王柘)上周(2025年12月1日至12月5日)月初资金面较宽松,权益市场也未明显走强,但债市受消息面和政 策面预期影响,收益率长端大幅上抬,超长债定价逻辑修正,30年期国债收益率上行超过7BP。期限利差走阔,收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 央行披露11月公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元,体现了"收短放长"的策略特征。机构预计,央行大概率继续维持"宽松的数量操作模 式",年末资金面扰动因素可控。本周需密切关注重要会议政策部署和海外议息会议的相关消息。 行情回顾 2025年12月5日,中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年11月28日分别变 动-0.01BP、-1.47BP、-1.46BP、1.39BP、0.17BP、0.68BP、7.2BP、9.7BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)》 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 11月28日 | 12月5日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.1613 | 1.2 | 3.87 | | 0.08 | 1.2661 | 1. 2714 | ...
央行“收短放长”再加码,万亿流动性注入稳市场
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-05 06:32
【环球网财经综合报道】为维护年末银行体系流动性合理充裕,中国人民银行于12月5日开展了1万亿元 的3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于当月有同等规模的到期量,此次操作实现了对该期限工具的等量续 作,精准强化了对跨年资金面的支撑。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币改策 | 宏观审撰 | 倩贷政策 | 会融市场 | 金融程定 | 调查綫社 | 银行会计 | 文付体系 | | 鱼融科技 | | 人民师 | 经观回库 | 國际夜健 | 人员招录 | 宁术交流 | 征倩管理 | 反抗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文旦播 | 央行研究 | 青旗视频 | 市场动态 | 网上段厅 | 报告下或 | 我们午落 | | 网送文告 | | 办事大厅 ...
央行,10000亿大动作!就在周五→
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-04 16:11
在今年9月和11月,3个月期买断式逆回购均为等量续作,天风证券固收首席分析师谭逸鸣分析称,等量 续作或反映月初银行通过买断式逆回购补充流动性的意愿不高,更倾向于等待月中、月末等流动性需求 更为明晰的时点进行主动管理。 (原标题:央行,10000亿大动作!就在周五→) 央行将开展1万亿元买断式逆回购。 12月4日,中国人民银行(下称"央行")发布公告称,将在5日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方 式开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作,期限为3个月(91天)。鉴于当月有同等规模的3个月期品种到期, 本次操作后将实现3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作。 买断式逆回购操作采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标。该机制可以更真实反映机构对资金的需求 程度,参与机构在投标时需要根据自身情况选择不同利率投标,最终中标利率即为自己的投标利率。每 家机构可能有多笔中标,中标利率各不相同,整个操作也没有统一的中标利率。 12月的月初资金面环境与9月、11月类似,整体较为平稳、扰动因素较少。谭逸鸣指出,从9月、11月的 月初操作看,3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作或反映出银行为负债端管理而保留灵活性。 考虑到12月同业存单到期规模依然较大,且财政 ...
央行,10000亿大动作!就在周五→
证券时报· 2025-12-04 15:54
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to support liquidity in the banking system, reflecting a strategy to manage liquidity effectively during the year-end period [1][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On December 5, the PBOC will carry out a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months (91 days), maintaining the same scale as previous operations [1]. - The buyout reverse repo operations in September and November were also conducted as equal-scale renewals, indicating banks' preference to manage liquidity actively at clearer points in the month [2]. - A total of 1.4 trillion yuan in buyout reverse repos will mature in December, with expectations for continued increased operations across different terms [2]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The current liquidity environment in December is stable, similar to previous months, with fewer disturbances, allowing banks to retain flexibility in managing liabilities [3]. - The PBOC's strategy of "short-term collection and long-term release" aims to stabilize market expectations and support year-end liquidity, with a net injection of 650 billion yuan in medium to long-term liquidity in November [4]. - The PBOC's approach includes a net withdrawal of 556.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, reflecting a balance between short-term and long-term liquidity management [4].
央行大动作!明日,10000亿元
券商中国· 2025-12-04 15:04
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, reflecting a strategy to support liquidity in the banking system and manage year-end funding needs [1][6]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On December 5, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, which is a continuation of similar operations in September and November [1][2]. - The December operation is expected to maintain liquidity levels as there is a total of 1.4 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing this month, with expectations for additional operations [2][6]. - The fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price winning mechanism of the reverse repo operation allows institutions to reflect their funding needs more accurately [6][7]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC has been actively managing medium to long-term liquidity through various operations, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [5][7]. - The central bank's strategy of "short-term withdrawal and long-term injection" aims to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive short-term liquidity accumulation [7]. - In November, the PBOC net injected 650 billion yuan of medium to long-term liquidity while withdrawing 556.2 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to liquidity management [7]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that the current liquidity environment in December is stable, with fewer disturbances, similar to previous months [6]. - The PBOC's actions are seen as a proactive measure to avoid liquidity gaps due to maturing funds, especially as the month progresses [6][7]. - The ongoing operations are expected to guide the banking system towards a stable and ample liquidity state, addressing potential tightening pressures [6].
【笔记20251204— 债农每日一盼:央妈今天爱吗?】
债券笔记· 2025-12-04 11:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the central bank's actions and their impact on liquidity and interest rates, particularly in the bond market. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 1,808 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,564 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,756 billion yuan [1] - An announcement was made for a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation scheduled for December 5, 2025 [1][3] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with stable funding rates [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - The 10-year government bond yield opened higher at 1.845% and fluctuated, reaching a peak of 1.861% before settling at 1.8500% [3] - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.49% [2] - The market reacted to the Financial Times' commentary on "short-term tightening and long-term easing," leading to fluctuations in bond prices and yields [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article reflects a sense of uncertainty among investors, with questions about the central bank's support for the market, likening it to a daily inquiry from stock and bond investors [3] - The sentiment is further illustrated by the humorous commentary on market expectations, highlighting the disconnect between investor hopes and market realities [3]
央行“收短放长”保持流动性充裕
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-12-04 00:57
王青表示,11月央行综合运用MLF和买断式逆回购,向市场注入中期流动性6000亿元,旨在助力 政府债券顺利发行,支持银行加大信贷投放力度。10月安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额,用于增加 地方政府财力及扩大有效投资,这意味着年底前会增加发行5000亿元地方债,11月政府债券净融资规模 会有明显上升。另外,10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕,在带动当月委托贷款走高后,接下 来还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放。 "回顾来看,11月市场流动性相对宽松,回购利率低位波动,存单利率虽然边际回升,但放长维度 看,仍然是下半年以来的低位。"中信证券首席经济学家明明对《金融时报》记者表示。数据显示,11 月DR007月均值为1.47%,与上月基本持平;1年期商业银行(AAA级)同业存单到期收益率月均值为 1.63%,较上月下行3个基点。从市场角度看,在资金面宽松、股市行情放缓的背景下,债市仍然维持 弱势调整,央行操作有助于稳定市场情绪。 当前,央行在流动性管理方面已经形成了一套"组合拳"——通过逆回购操作调节短期流动性;通过 买断式逆回购、MLF操作加强中期流动性投放。招联首席研究员董希淼对《金融时报》记者表示, ...
央行连续两个月开展国债买卖操作,12月资金面均衡可期
央行连续两个月开展国债买卖操作 12月资金面均衡可期 ◎记者 陈佳怡 在过去的11月,资金面有所波动,中国人民银行综合运用多种政策工具,护航资金面平稳跨月。进入12 月,尽管临近年末资金面波动可能加大,市场普遍预期,央行仍将多措并举呵护资金面,整体资金面仍 将维持均衡。 央行连续两个月开展国债买卖操作 12月2日,央行披露2025年11月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。数据显示,尽管当月央行7天期逆回 购操作实现净回笼5562亿元,但中长期流动性仍处于净投放状态。其中,买断式逆回购、中期借贷便利 (MLF)分别净投放5000亿元、1000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对上海证券报记者表示,11月7天期逆回购净回笼,主要缘于前期跨月投 放的逆回购到期,央行顺势回笼资金,避免过量短期资金在市场淤积。另外,央行持续通过MLF和买 断式逆回购向市场较大规模注入中期流动性,也在一定程度上体现了"收短放长"策略,有助于调控资金 面处于不缺不溢的充裕状态,防范资金空转,提高资金使用效率。 11月,央行公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元。这已是央行连续两个月开展国债买卖操作,且当月净投 放规模较10月有所扩大。央行连续两个 ...
央行连续两个月开展国债买卖操作12月资金面均衡可期
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been actively managing liquidity through various policy tools, ensuring a balanced funding environment as it approaches the end of the year, despite potential fluctuations in the money market [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - In November, the PBOC conducted net withdrawals of 556.2 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos, while maintaining net injections of medium to long-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, totaling 500 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The PBOC's continuous operations in the bond market, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan in November, indicate a supportive monetary policy stance aimed at stabilizing macroeconomic conditions for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The average R001 rate increased by 4 basis points to 1.43% in November, while the R007 rate remained stable around 1.50%. The DR001 and DR007 rates also saw slight increases, reflecting a generally balanced funding environment despite some volatility [3]. - Analysts expect that while funding fluctuations may increase towards the end of December, the PBOC's supportive measures will help maintain a stable and ample liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated issuance of government bonds in December is limited, and the PBOC's consistent supportive stance suggests that funding rates are unlikely to deviate significantly from policy rates [4]. - There is a cautionary note regarding potential short-term volatility as the year-end approaches, but overall expectations remain for a balanced and ample funding situation [4].