证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251119 ◼ 我们预计 2026 年货币政策或延续支持性政策立场："数量"上通过不同 期限流动性工具搭配呵护市场，"降准"仍有 1-2 次的操作空间，国债买 卖操作将进一步常态化，并且成为"降准"的有效补充；"价格"上政策 利率或有 1-2 次"降息"空间，对应 10-20bps 调降幅度；在政策导向上 保持合理的利率比价关系，10 年期国债利率或在 1.70%-2.0%区间内波 动，30 年期利率或在 1.90%-2.30%区间内波动，合理期限溢价或是货币 政策和市场交易动态博弈的结果。 ◼ "利率水平"调节：收窄"利率走廊"、常态化国债买卖 在"利率比价"中寻锚 ——2026 年度展望:货币政策 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ◼ "利率比价"调节：保持合理的利率比价关系成为新的政策导向 2025 年 11 月 19 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn ...

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year remains at 3.0% and for 5-year and above at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - The stability of LPR aligns with market expectations, influenced by the unchanged reverse repurchase rate since May [1][2] - The current lending rates for both corporate loans and personal housing loans are at historically low levels, contributing to the decision to maintain LPR [1] Group 2 - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate has become the new pricing anchor for LPR, facilitating the transmission of interest rates from short to long-term [2] - Commercial banks are facing pressure on net interest margins, limiting their motivation to lower LPR quotes further [2] - The balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system is crucial for future monetary policy [2] Group 3 - Macroeconomic indicators such as consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown a decline due to various factors including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue a moderately loose monetary policy while balancing internal and external factors [3] - Future policies will focus on reducing social financing costs and enhancing the transmission of interest rates, alongside fiscal and consumption policies to stimulate demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The reform of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been ongoing for six years, leading to significant declines in loan rates and improved interest rate transmission mechanisms [1][6][7]. Group 1: LPR Stability and Economic Context - As of August 20, the one-year LPR remains at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, marking the third consecutive month of stability since a 10 basis point drop in May [3]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the consistent 7-day reverse repurchase rate since June, which serves as the pricing anchor for LPR [3]. - The net interest margin of commercial banks was reported at 1.42% as of the end of Q2, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, indicating ongoing pressure on banks' profitability [3]. Group 2: Impact of LPR Reform - Since the reform began, the one-year and five-year LPR have decreased by 131 basis points and 135 basis points, respectively, compared to pre-reform levels [7]. - The average weighted interest rate for RMB loans has dropped by 205 basis points since the end of 2019, with corporate loan rates at 3.22% and personal housing loan rates at 3.06% [7]. - The LPR has become the primary reference for loan pricing, enhancing the reflection of market supply and demand in loan rates [7]. Group 3: Future Directions for LPR Reform - Experts suggest that future reforms should focus on improving the quality of LPR quotes by expanding the range of quoting banks to include private and foreign banks [8][9]. - There is a recommendation to enhance the interest rate transmission mechanism to ensure that market rates effectively influence LPR and subsequently loan rates [9]. - The potential for further LPR reductions exists, with expectations of a possible 10 basis point decrease by the end of the year, contingent on both domestic and international monetary policy developments [5][9].

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions to support the real economy [1] - Analysts predict that the second quarter is a ripe time for these monetary policy adjustments, with expected interest rate cuts of 0.3 percentage points and RRR cuts of 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [1] - The need for macroeconomic policy support is highlighted due to high actual interest rates and external economic pressures, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to boost consumer and business investment [1] Group 2 - The priority for releasing long-term liquidity tools remains with RRR cuts, which are expected to be implemented first as fiscal policies become more accommodative in the second quarter [2] - Interest rate cuts may face constraints from the yuan's exchange rate and banks' net interest margins, but the weakening of the dollar reduces immediate exchange rate pressures [2] - Overall, the monetary policy is expected to maintain a loose stance through 2025, with anticipated RRR cuts of about 1 percentage point and interest rate reductions of approximately 0.3 percentage points throughout the year [2]

Core Insights - The article indicates that the Bank of Indonesia is expected to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% in the second quarter of 2025, consistent with the results from a March survey [1] Group 1 - The anticipated rate cut aligns with previous survey findings, suggesting a stable outlook for monetary policy [1] - The adjustment reflects ongoing economic conditions and central bank strategies aimed at stimulating growth [1] - The forecasted rate of 5.50% indicates a cautious approach by the Bank of Indonesia in managing inflation and economic stability [1]