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货币市场日报:9月25日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 13:53
来源:全国银行间同业拆借中心 上海银行间同业拆放利率(9月25日) | | | | 2025-09-25 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 1 | O/N | 1.4720 | 3.80 | | 鲁 | 1W | 1.5840 | 0.60 | | 1 | 2W | 1.6250 | 3.10 | | � | 1M | 1.5640 | 0.80 | | � | 3M | 1.5740 | 0.80 | | � | 6M | 1.6350 | 0.30 | | ↑ | 9M | 1.6690 | 0.50 | | 1 | 1Y | 1.6790 | 0.50 | 货币市场利率(9月25日) 银行间质押式回购市场方面,银行间品种全线上涨。具体看,DR001加权平均利率上行3.8BP,报1.4749%;DR007加权平均利率上行1.5BP,报 1.6017%;DR014加权平均利率上行2.2BP,报1.6718%。 新华财经北京9月25日电(高二山)人民银行25日开展4835亿元7天期逆回购操作和6000亿元中期借贷 ...
流动性和机构行为跟踪:央行呵护,税期平稳
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-21 08:30
Group 1: Liquidity and Market Behavior - The liquidity situation is tightening, with an increase in funding prices. R001 rose to 1.50% from 1.40%, and DR001 increased to 1.46% from 1.36%. R007 reached 1.52% from 1.47%, while DR007 rose to 1.51% from 1.46% [1] - The central bank has increased its fund injection, with a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan through reverse repos this week, alongside a 600 billion yuan long-term reverse repo operation [1] - The average daily trading volume of pledged repos decreased slightly to 7.16 trillion yuan from 7.49 trillion yuan, indicating a slight decline in interbank leverage [3] Group 2: Certificate of Deposit and Treasury Yield - The yield on certificates of deposit (CDs) has slightly increased, with the 3-month yield rising by 1.50 basis points to 1.58%, the 6-month yield up by 0.61 basis points to 1.64%, and the 1-year yield increasing by 0.50 basis points to 1.68% [2] - The net financing from CDs rebounded to 134.4 billion yuan from a previous -468 billion yuan, with the average issuance term extending to 6.4 months from 5.9 months [2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened slightly, with the 1-year treasury yield down by 1 basis point to 1.39%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.19 basis points to 1.88% and 1.56 basis points to 2.20%, respectively [2] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance - The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decline significantly next week, with a forecasted net issuance of -52.2 billion yuan, compared to a net issuance of 2.674 trillion yuan this week [3] - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 287.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds had a net issuance of 30.9 billion yuan [3] - The total net payment for government bonds this week was 429.6 billion yuan, indicating a substantial outflow [3]
【招银研究|固收产品月报】债市逆风仍存,维持中短债配置(2025年9月)
招商银行研究· 2025-09-19 09:27
Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].
流动性和机构行为跟踪:资金继续宽松,杠杆小幅回升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-31 00:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the liquidity and institutional behavior in the fixed - income market. It shows that the funds remain loose, and the leverage ratio has slightly increased. The overnight fund prices have declined, while the seven - day fund prices are volatile. The central bank has injected funds to support the cross - month liquidity. The yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) have different trends, and the net financing of CDs continues to be negative with a shortened average issuance term. The net issuance of government bonds will increase next week, and the net payment will decrease. The inter - bank leverage ratio has slightly risen this week [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - Overnight fund prices have declined, and seven - day fund prices are volatile. R001 closed at 1.42% (previous value: 1.45%), DR001 at 1.33% (previous value: 1.41%), R007 at 1.52% (previous value: 1.48%), and DR007 at 1.52% (previous value: 1.47%). The spread between DR007 and 7 - day OMO was 11.58bp. The 6M national and joint - stock bank bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.80% (previous value: 0.59%) [1]. - The central bank injected funds to support the cross - month liquidity. This week, the central bank's reverse repurchase injection was 227.31 billion yuan, with 207.7 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 19.61 billion yuan. MLF injection was 60 billion yuan, with 30 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 30 billion yuan [1]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit - The yields of CDs have different trends. The 3M yield decreased by 1.00bp to 1.54%, the 6M yield increased by 0.04bp to 1.61%, and the 1Y yield decreased by 0.50bp to 1.66%. The spread between the 1 - year CD and R007 narrowed by 3.82bp to 14.29bp [2]. - The net financing of CDs continues to be negative, and the average issuance term has shortened. This week, the net financing of CDs was - 19.47 billion yuan (previous value: - 24.55 billion yuan). The 1 - year CD issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.67%, 1.67%, 1.71%, and 1.76% respectively, with changes of + 0bp, - 0.80bp, - 3.68bp, and + 4.40bp compared to the previous values. The weighted average issuance term this week was 6.0M (previous value: 6.5M), with 3M CDs issued at 10.5 billion yuan, 6M at 19.87 billion yuan, and 1Y at 7.17 billion yuan [2]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - Next week, the net issuance of government bonds will increase, and the net payment will decrease. This week, the net issuance of national bonds was - 23.71 billion yuan, and that of local bonds was 24.36 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 0.65 billion yuan and a total net payment of 19.93 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance of national bonds is 11.98 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 3.67 billion yuan, with a total net issuance of 15.65 billion yuan and a total net payment of - 0.79 billion yuan [3]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio has slightly risen this week. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was 7.07 trillion yuan (previous value: 7.13 trillion yuan), and the average daily inter - bank market leverage ratio was 108.78% (previous value: 108.42%) [3].
每日债市速递 | 美国财政部长向华尔街发出讯号
Wind万得· 2025-08-20 22:49
Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 20, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 616 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - As monthly tax payments recede, the central bank continues to inject large amounts of liquidity through reverse repos, leading to a tightening trend in the interbank funding market in the morning, but improving in the afternoon with liquidity becoming more balanced [3] - The CNEX funding sentiment index peaked at 67 before falling back to 48 by the end of the day [3] - The weighted rate of DR001 rose slightly to around 1.47%, while DR007 increased by over 2 basis points to approximately 1.57% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.67%, showing little change from the previous day [8] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Most major interest rate bond yields in the interbank market have risen [10] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.35%, the 10-year down by 0.18%, the 5-year down by 0.10%, and the 2-year remaining flat [14] Group 5: Government and Social Capital Cooperation - The State Council forwarded the Ministry of Finance's guidelines on standardizing the construction and operation of existing projects under government and social capital cooperation, emphasizing the need for prioritization based on economic and financial conditions [15] - Local governments are encouraged to expedite near-completion projects and optimize construction standards to reduce unnecessary costs [15] Group 6: U.S. Treasury and Stablecoins - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Behnke indicated that stablecoins may become a source of demand for U.S. government bonds, with discussions involving major stablecoin issuers about future short-term note issuance plans [16] Group 7: Bond Issuance Plans - Jiangsu Province plans to issue 57.988 billion yuan in new government special bonds on August 27 and 32.747 billion yuan in September, all for new special bonds [18] - Guizhou Province plans to issue 763.3745 billion yuan in local bonds in September [18] Group 8: Non-standard Asset Risks - Recent non-standard asset risks in urban investment include various trust plans and debt plans, with multiple instances of default and risk warnings noted [19]
货币市场日报:8月20日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 14:03
新华财经北京8月20日电(高二山)人民银行20日开展6160亿元7天逆回购操作,操作利率为1.40%,与此前持平;鉴于当日有1185亿元7 天期逆回购到期,公开市场实现净投放4975亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)短期品种涨势趋缓,14天品种微跌。具体来看,隔夜Shibor上涨0.90BP,报1.4730%;7天Shibor上涨 1.70BP,报1.5340%;14天Shibor下跌0.30BP,报1.5960%。 | | | | 2025-08-20 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.4730 | 0.90 | | ⇒ | 1W | 1.5340 | 1.70 | | ゃ | 2W | 1.5960 | 0.30 | | t | 1M | 1.5320 | 0.40 | | 价 | 3M | 1.5500 | 0.00 | | 价 | 6M | 1.6100 | 0.00 | | ゃ | 9M | 1.6400 | 0.30 | | ↑ | 1Y | 1.6490 | 0. ...
每日债市速递 | 央行将开展7000亿买断式逆回购
Wind万得· 2025-08-07 22:38
Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 7, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 160.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan for the day [1][3] - On August 8, the central bank plans to conduct a 700 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months to maintain liquidity in the banking system [15] Group 2: Financial Market Conditions - The interbank market liquidity remains stable and slightly loose, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) slightly decreasing to around 1.31% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.34% [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Indicators - In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports at 15.31 trillion yuan (up 7.3%) and imports at 10.39 trillion yuan (down 1.6%) [15] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, while trade with the U.S. decreased by 11.1% to 2.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.4% of China's total foreign trade [15] Group 4: Credit Ratings and Economic Outlook - S&P Global Ratings has maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in China's economic resilience and debt management [16] Group 5: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank bonds have shown slight increases, with the 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year contracts rising by 0.03% and 0.05%, respectively, while the 2-year contract remained unchanged [14]
货币市场日报:7月30日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 13:40
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 30 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan into the market [1] - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) fell to 1.3170%, down 4.90 basis points, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor also saw slight declines [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates continued to decline, with the R007 transaction volume increasing to 18.2% [5] Group 2 - The macro policy meeting held by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need for sustained and timely macro policy efforts, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [14] - The average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China for the second quarter of 2025 was reported at 3.09% [15] - Jiangsu province reported a significant increase in new loans and social financing scale, leading the country in both metrics [16]
8月资金面关注什么
Minsheng Securities· 2025-07-30 12:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The capital market in August does not have a basis for tightening. Although the bond market has become desensitized to capital and fundamental information recently, it will eventually return to these two concerns. Currently, the Sino - US tariff negotiations have not released more positive information, and the latest economic data does not support a shift in monetary policy [2][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Judgment of August Capital Market - In July, after the capital interest rate dropped to nearly 1.3% at the beginning of the month, there were two significant increases. On July 25, the central bank immediately made a large - scale net investment of 601.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase to support the capital market, indicating that the central bank's attitude of supporting the capital market has not changed. The overnight capital interest rate has dropped to 1.36%, and the balance of 7 - day reverse repurchase is significantly higher than the seasonal level, similar to the situation in the second quarter [2][9] 2. Open Market - In August, the maturity of MLF is 300 billion yuan, and the maturity of outright reverse repurchase is 900 billion yuan, totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, less than the 1.5 trillion yuan in July. Since May, the combined caliber of these two tools has been net investment, so there is no need to worry too much. Starting from August, the maturity time and operation time of MLF will change from misaligned to consistent, solving the problem of affecting market expectations for medium - term liquidity [3][14] 3. Government Bond Supply - It is expected that in August 2025, the government bond issuance will be 2.17 - 2.39 trillion yuan, and the net financing will be 1.17 - 1.39 trillion yuan, close to the 1.25 trillion yuan in July. From January to July 2025, a total of 9.02 trillion yuan of the annual quota has been used, accounting for 65% of the annual 13.86 trillion yuan, with the local bond issuance progress slightly faster than that of national bonds. There are new policy tools to be launched, and they are expected to be implemented in the third quarter [4][17][18] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Recently, the increase in market risk appetite has not only pressured the bond market but also disturbed the inter - bank capital market. The 1 - year CD interest rate started to rise slightly after reaching around 1.6% at the beginning of July. The maturity scale of CDs in August will rise slightly to 3.07 trillion yuan, increasing the pressure on renewal. Before the policy interest rate is further lowered, the 1 - year CD interest rate is likely to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and there is a certain allocation value at 1.65% and above. Unless the central bank tightens liquidity investment, the probability of a significant price increase for issuance is not high, and the CD interest rate in August will mainly fluctuate seasonally [5][25]
基金抛盘,农商加仓
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 03:55
Report Title - Fund Selling, Rural Commercial Banks Buying - Tracking of Liquidity and Institutional Behavior [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week (July 21 - July 25), the money market rates generally increased, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and funds reduced leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit increased, and the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors decreased. In the cash bond market, rural commercial banks were the main buyers, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds were the main sellers, mainly reducing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds [3] Summary by Directory 1. Money and Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: A total of 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total investment of 1656.3 billion yuan. On Friday, 200 billion yuan of MLF matured and 400 billion yuan was invested, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 129.5 billion yuan for the whole week [7][10] - **Funding Rates**: As of July 25, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.55%, 1.69%, 1.52%, and 1.65% respectively, with changes of 6.41BP, 18.65BP, 6.08BP, and 14.56BP compared to July 18, and were at the 24%, 13%, 22%, and 9% historical percentiles respectively [7][13] - **Net Funding Flows of Main Institutions**: The net borrowing of the main funding providers (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) was 448.6 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 61.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net borrowing of fund companies and securities companies was - 270.5 billion and - 162.7 billion yuan respectively, with the net borrowing of fund companies decreasing by 309.6 billion yuan and that of securities companies decreasing by 155.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][17] - **Repo Market**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.7 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 8.04 trillion yuan, a 6.27% increase compared to the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 88.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.3%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week's average [7] - **Leverage Ratio**: As of July 25, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 186.5%, 127.4%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of - 0.12BP, - 15.49BP, 1.12BP, and - 0.53BP compared to July 18, and were at the 16%, 0%, 62%, and 23% historical percentiles respectively [7][26] 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and Financing of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased this week, with a total issuance of 515.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 429.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 560.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 702.86 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][30] - **Maturity of Certificates of Deposit**: The maturity volume of certificates of deposit increased this week, with a total maturity of 1076.48 billion yuan, an increase of 273.67 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (July 28 - August 1), 376.74 billion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature [7][30][36] - **Interest Rates of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of all banks and at all tenors increased. As of July 25, the one - year issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased by 4.17BP, 1BP, 0.17BP, and 1BP respectively compared to July 18. The issuance interest rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit increased by 0.59BP, 2.15BP, and 4.86BP respectively compared to July 18 [39] - **Shibor Rates**: The Shibor rates increased this week. As of July 25, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor rates increased by 5.8BP, 12.6BP, 16.8BP, 0.9BP, and 0.4BP respectively compared to July 18 [42] - **Yields of Certificates of Deposit at Maturity**: The yields of certificates of deposit at maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit increased by 4.01BP, 4.69BP, 6.16BP, 5.06BP, and 5.75BP respectively compared to July 18 [44] - **Bill Interest Rates**: The bill interest rates decreased. As of July 25, the 3M direct discount rate, 3M transfer discount rate, 6M direct discount rate, and 6M transfer discount rate of national - owned shares decreased by 5BP, 13BP, 8BP, and 9BP respectively compared to July 18 [7][47] 3. Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Cash Bond Trading**: Rural commercial banks were the main buyers in the cash bond market this week, with a net purchase of 261.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. Funds were the main sellers, with a net sale of 358.7 billion yuan, also an increase compared to the previous week. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Funds**: Funds reduced their holdings of cash bonds by 358.7 billion yuan, including a reduction of 236.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 22.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 61.2 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 39.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly reduced their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 1 - 5 - year credit bonds [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Wealth Management Products**: Wealth management products increased their holdings of cash bonds by 107.6 billion yuan, including an increase of 26.6 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in credit bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 50.5 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds with a tenor of less than 1 year [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Rural Financial Institutions**: Rural financial institutions increased their holdings of cash bonds by 261.7 billion yuan, including an increase of 271.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 4.5 billion yuan in credit bonds, 36.6 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 50.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Insurance Companies**: Insurance companies increased their holdings of cash bonds by 115.9 billion yuan, including an increase of 66.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 12.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 8 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 29.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 20 - 30 - year interest - rate bonds and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds [50]