华西宏观 （四）票据市场：利率转为上行，大行转为净卖出 截止11月21日，1M票据较前一周上行28bp至1.08%，3M上行18bp至0.58%，6M上行14bp至0.77%。在此 期间（11月17-20日），大行净卖出235亿元，11月累计净买入774亿元（去年同期累计净买入2058亿 元）。 （五）政府债：11月24-28日，净缴款2237亿元 （一）概况：税期，资金面起波澜 11月17-21日，资金面波澜再起，周初（17-18日）受税期、政府债缴款及北交所打新等因素影响，资金 面显著承压，R001迅速攀升至1.57%，R007也升至1.53%。周三起，随着央行持续加力投放，且税期走 款即将结束，资金利率迎来下行。直至周五，资金利率才回归合理定价，R001回落至1.39%，低于 OMO利率，R007也逐步下行至1.50%水平。 （二）展望：跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平 下周（11月24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起，拆借7天利率可跨月。参考 今年二季度以来季中月（5月、8月）资金利率在跨月周的变化情况，R007最大上行幅度分别为11、 8bp，而R001多在跨月当日显著上行，幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 22 年 月 日 固定收益定期 存单大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行为跟踪 资金整体平稳，价格小幅波动。或由于央行持续呵护，本周资金价格小 幅下降，本周 R001 收于 1.39%（前值 1.43%），DR001 收于 1.32% （前值 1.37%）。R007 收于 1.50%（（前值 1.49%），DR007 收于 1.44% （前值 1.47%）。DR007 与 7 天 OMO 利差收于 4.08bp。6M 国股银票 转贴利率收于 0.77%（前值 0.63%）。 OMO 净投放平稳，国库现金定存将加量续作。本周央行逆回购投放 16760 亿元，逆回购到期 11220 亿元，逆回购净投放 5540 亿元，与 上周净投放量（6262 亿元）相近。11 月 19 日央行公告，11 月 24 日 将开展 1200 亿元 1M 与 800 亿 21D 国库现金定存，加量续作 800 亿 元。 债市缺乏交易主线，债券收益率窄幅震荡。本周受海外信息影响，股 市大幅回调，但债市交易空间仍然有限，债市收益率整体呈现窄幅震 荡趋势。1 年国债收益率下行 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 300 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 20, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 190 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a loosening of funding conditions, with major term repurchase rates declining. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 5 basis points to around 1.36%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system dropped significantly to 1.35% [3] - There is abundant overnight funding supply, with non-bank institutions borrowing overnight funds at around 1.50%. The end of tax period impacts has led to a recovery in funding conditions, with expectations for further declines in short-term rates [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.21%, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts increased by 0.06% each, and the 2-year contract remained unchanged [11] Group 5: LPR and Regulatory Developments - The November LPR remained stable at 3% for the one-year rate and 3.5% for the five-year and above categories. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for stronger institutional frameworks and risk prevention measures during a recent meeting [12] Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan plans to introduce a new spending plan amounting to 17.7 trillion yen, necessitating the issuance of more bonds to raise funds. The Japanese Finance Minister highlighted the challenges of balancing inflation, bond yields, and a weak yen [14] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Export-Import Bank plans to auction up to 2 billion yuan of 3-year floating rate bonds on November 21. The bond market's "technology board" remains active, with a cumulative issuance scale of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan this year [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's actions, including increased open - market operations and the resumption of treasury bond transactions, have contributed to a stable and slightly fluctuating capital market. Treasury bond yields have declined, and certificate of deposit yields have also decreased, while the bank - to - bank leverage ratio has slightly dropped [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Capital Market - **Funds are stable with slight fluctuations**: This week, R001 closed at 1.41% (previous value 1.38%), DR001 at 1.32% (same as the previous value), R007 at 1.49% (previous value 1.46%), and DR007 at 1.46% (previous value 1.41%). The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day OMO was 5.51bp. The 6M national - share bank bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.20% (previous value 0.66%) [1]. - **Central bank increases open - market operations**: Facing tax period and end - of - month pressures, the central bank conducted 20680 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations this week, with 8672 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net reverse repurchase injection of 12008 billion yuan. Additionally, 9000 billion yuan in MLF operations were carried out, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan, marking eight consecutive months of increased roll - overs [1]. - **Treasury bond yields decline**: On October 27, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond transactions. This week, the 1 - year treasury bond yield dropped 8.90bp to 1.38%, the 10 - year yield fell 5.32bp to 1.80%, and the 30 - year yield decreased 6.95bp to 2.14% [1]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields decline**: This week, the 3M yield dropped 3.50bp to 1.56%, the 6M yield fell 4.78bp to 1.60%, and the 1Y yield decreased 4.75bp to 1.63%. The spread between the 1 - year certificate of deposit and R007 narrowed 7.49bp to 13.52bp [2]. - **Net financing slightly decreases and average issuance term shortens**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 1706 billion yuan (previous value 3454 billion yuan). The 1 - year issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.75%, and 1.68% respectively. The weighted average issuance term was 6.9M (previous value 7.1M), with 1390 billion yuan in 3M certificates of deposit issued, 2316.5 billion yuan in 6M, and 1927.3 billion yuan in 1Y [2]. - **Next - week government bond net issuance slightly decreases and net payment turns negative**: This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, and local bonds had a net issuance of 1757 billion yuan, with a total government bond net issuance of 1757 billion yuan and a total net payment of 4409 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance of treasury bonds is 1504 billion yuan, local bonds - 336 billion yuan, government bond net financing 1168 billion yuan, and total net payment - 599 billion yuan [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Bank - to - bank leverage ratio slightly decreases**: This week, the average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions was 6.70 trillion yuan (previous value 7.83 trillion yuan), and the average daily bank - to - bank market leverage ratio was 107.66% (previous value 109.19%) [3].

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 475.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate [1] - With 159.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing on the same day, the net injection into the open market was 315.8 billion yuan [1] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shibor rising by 2.70 basis points to 1.4690%, while the 7-day Shibor fell by 1.20 basis points to 1.5300% [2][3] - The 14-day Shibor increased by 4.90 basis points to 1.6470% [2] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates experienced slight fluctuations, with R007 and R014 continuing to show an inverted relationship [4] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 1.6 basis points and fell by 0.6 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 saw declines of 2.4 basis points and 3.4 basis points [4] Funding Conditions - The funding environment on October 28 was characterized by a loose stance, with overnight transactions initially around 1.55% and gradually declining to a range of 1.45%-1.48% by the end of the day [8] - A total of 75 interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 181.72 billion yuan [8] Financial Performance of Banks - China Bank reported a third-quarter revenue of 162.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.069 billion yuan, up 5.09% [11] - For the first three quarters, the bank achieved a revenue of 492.115 billion yuan, a 2.72% increase, and a net profit of 177.66 billion yuan, up 1.08% [11]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - The liquidity environment is currently stable, with R007 fluctuating around 1.47% during October 20-24, 2025[1] - The net issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) surged to 641.1 billion yuan in October, marking the second-highest level this year[1] - The weighted issuance rate of NCDs increased to 1.65%, up 2.1 basis points from the previous week[1] Group 2: Upcoming Challenges - The liquidity will face dual pressures from the large tax period and month-end cash flow requirements from October 27-30[3] - The upcoming week will see a total of 15,672 billion yuan in maturities, including 8,672 billion yuan in reverse repos[4] - The government bond net payment is expected to be 1,337 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week's 2,142 billion yuan[6] Group 3: Market Trends - The 1-month bill rate fell by 43 basis points to 0.60%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates also declined[5] - Major banks have net purchased 1,267 billion yuan in bills during the week of October 20-23, with a total of 3,625 billion yuan net purchased in October[5] - The issuance of NCDs with maturities of 6 months or more has increased, now accounting for 39% of total issuance, up 15.3 percentage points[20] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - The central bank announced a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan on October 27, 2025, to alleviate liquidity pressure[3] - Cumulatively, the central bank's net injection of medium- and long-term funds in October reached 600 billion yuan[3]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 236 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan due to 612 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor remaining stable at 1.3160%, the 7-day Shibor rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.4190%, and the 14-day Shibor decreasing by 0.90 basis points to 1.4430% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, most rates saw slight increases, with the R007 transaction ratio rising to 10.6%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 0.0 basis points and 0.1 basis points, respectively, while DR007 and R007 both rose by 0.6 basis points [4] - The transaction volumes for DR001 and R001 increased by 188 billion yuan and 102.8 billion yuan, respectively, while DR007 saw a decrease of 139 million yuan, and R007's transaction volume increased by 247.2 billion yuan [4] Funding Conditions - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with major banks lending well. The overnight pledged repo rates were reported at 1.28% to 1.43%, while 7-day pledged repo rates were around 1.45% to 1.47% [9] - As of 5:30 PM on October 16, there were 110 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 152.78 billion yuan [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, issuers are actively raising prices, leading to a lively trading atmosphere. The secondary market showed moderate trading sentiment, with overall yields slightly increasing [10] - The 1-month national bank stock ended at approximately 1.51%, while the 3-month and 6-month national bank stocks saw slight declines and increases, respectively, with the 1-year national bank stock yielding between 1.6675% and 1.6725% [10] Banking Sector Developments - Recent leadership changes were reported in several branches of the Bank of China, including the appointment of new branch heads in Henan, Shanghai, and Jiangxi provinces [12] - Jilin Bank's registered capital increased from approximately 13.14 billion yuan to about 13.81 billion yuan, alongside changes in several senior management positions [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that liquidity is expected to remain comfortable in the upcoming week, with a stable transition across the quarter despite some fluctuations observed from September 23 to September 25, where the central bank's operations were relatively cautious [1][12] - On September 26, the central bank injected 600 billion yuan through a 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, which revitalized market sentiment and helped overnight funds recover to below 1.35%, supported by increased fiscal spending at the quarter's end [1][12] - Historical trends suggest that in October, funding rates typically operate around a central level, with early month conditions being relatively loose due to the easing of regulatory assessments and the influx of fiscal spending [18] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in public market maturities, including 1.021 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, 500 billion yuan in buyout repos, and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [3][24] - Government bonds are set to issue over 200 billion yuan, with planned issuances of 221 billion yuan in national bonds and 213 billion yuan in local bonds, while maturing national bonds total 2.594 trillion yuan and local bonds 946 billion yuan [4][35] - The willingness of major banks to lend has shown signs of recovery, with funding rates declining; for instance, DR001 decreased by 6.81 basis points to 1.32% as of October 10 [5][18]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 296.5 billion yuan into the market through reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities on September 25, 2023, amid maturing financial instruments [1]. Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank executed a 7-day reverse repo operation of 483.5 billion yuan and a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 600 billion yuan, with 4.87 billion yuan in reverse repos and 300 billion yuan in MLF maturing on the same day [1]. - The overall net injection into the market was 296.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing instruments [1]. Group 2: Interbank Rates - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) rose by 3.80 basis points to 1.4720%, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor rates slightly decreased [2][3]. - The weighted average rates for various repo instruments increased, with DR001 rising by 3.8 basis points to 1.4749%, DR007 up by 1.5 basis points to 1.6017%, and DR014 increasing by 2.2 basis points to 1.6718% [3][4]. Group 3: Funding Conditions - The funding conditions in the interbank market were balanced in the morning and slightly eased in the afternoon, with overnight rates for non-bank institutions trading between 1.50% and 1.53% [6]. - A total of 55 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on September 25, with an actual issuance volume of 39.91 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Bond Market Activity - The primary market for certificates of deposit showed a recovery in trading sentiment, while the secondary market experienced active trading with yields fluctuating slightly compared to the previous day [7][8].

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Behavior - The liquidity situation is tightening, with an increase in funding prices. R001 rose to 1.50% from 1.40%, and DR001 increased to 1.46% from 1.36%. R007 reached 1.52% from 1.47%, while DR007 rose to 1.51% from 1.46% [1] - The central bank has increased its fund injection, with a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan through reverse repos this week, alongside a 600 billion yuan long-term reverse repo operation [1] - The average daily trading volume of pledged repos decreased slightly to 7.16 trillion yuan from 7.49 trillion yuan, indicating a slight decline in interbank leverage [3] Group 2: Certificate of Deposit and Treasury Yield - The yield on certificates of deposit (CDs) has slightly increased, with the 3-month yield rising by 1.50 basis points to 1.58%, the 6-month yield up by 0.61 basis points to 1.64%, and the 1-year yield increasing by 0.50 basis points to 1.68% [2] - The net financing from CDs rebounded to 134.4 billion yuan from a previous -468 billion yuan, with the average issuance term extending to 6.4 months from 5.9 months [2] - The yield curve for government bonds has steepened slightly, with the 1-year treasury yield down by 1 basis point to 1.39%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields increased by 1.19 basis points to 1.88% and 1.56 basis points to 2.20%, respectively [2] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance - The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decline significantly next week, with a forecasted net issuance of -52.2 billion yuan, compared to a net issuance of 2.674 trillion yuan this week [3] - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 287.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds had a net issuance of 30.9 billion yuan [3] - The total net payment for government bonds this week was 429.6 billion yuan, indicating a substantial outflow [3]