Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

新华财经北京12月25日电（高二山）人民银行25日开展1771亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，与前次持平；鉴于当日有883亿元 逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放888亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）各品种窄幅波动，7天品种继续上涨。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.50BP，报1.2620%；7天Shibor上 涨1.50BP，报1.4000%；14天Shibor下跌0.40BP，报1.5950%。 | | | | | 2025-12-25 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | | 涨跌(BP) | | t | O/N | 1.2620 | | 0.50 | | ゃ | 1W | 1.4000 | | 1.50 | | f | 2W | 1.5950 | | 0.40 | | 企 | 1M | 1.5840 | | 0.50 | | 中 | 3M | 1.6000 | | 0.00 | | ⇒ | 6M | 1.6270 | V | 0.20 | | や | 9M | 1.6400 | | 0.00 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The market generally focuses on the changes in the description of monetary policy in the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting minutes of the People's Bank of China Party Committee's study and implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference spirit are equally important, reflecting the central bank's specific thinking on monetary policy in 2026 [1]. Summary by Directory 1. From the Meeting Minutes of the Central Bank Party Committee's Study to See Subtle Changes in Monetary Policy in 2026 - The Central Economic Work Conference is an important institutional arrangement for the Party to govern the country. After the conference, various systems and ministries will convey, study, and deploy specific work for 2026. The People's Bank of China Party Committee will also study and clarify implementation measures [1][12]. - Comparing the 2025 and 2024 meeting minutes, four main changes were found: adding "grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation", which may indicate a more moderate loose - monetary - policy; changing the description of social comprehensive financing costs from "stable and gradually decreasing" in 2024 to "operating at a low level" in 2025; making the description of the RMB exchange rate more concise, showing confidence in the recent appreciation trend of the RMB; and continuing to emphasize "coordination with fiscal policy" [2][12][13]. 2. Narrow - Sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (12/8 - 12/12), the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 4.7 billion yuan. As of December 12, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 668.5 billion yuan, at a relatively low level [15]. - Medium - term liquidity: In December, the due amount of the central bank's outright reverse - repurchase was 140 billion yuan (including 100 billion yuan for the 3 - month and 40 billion yuan for the 6 - month). On December 5, the central bank renewed the 3 - month outright reverse - repurchase of 100 billion yuan. On December 15, it will renew the 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase of 60 billion yuan, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan [16]. 2.2 Institutional Fund Inflow and Outflow: Large Banks' Net Outflow Reaches a New High - Fund supply: On December 12, large banks' net fund outflow was 4.2 trillion yuan (flow concept), up about 100.2 billion yuan from December 5. The net outflow balance was 4.8 trillion yuan, up about 130.2 billion yuan. The net outflow balance of money funds was 1.1 trillion yuan, down about 117.7 billion yuan from December 5. The net outflow of joint - stock banks was 28.96 billion yuan, up about 285.5 billion yuan from December 5 [18]. - Fund demand: On December 12, the balance of repurchase - to - be - bought bonds in the inter - bank market was about 12.4 trillion yuan, up 646.7 billion yuan from December 5. The leverage ratio of the whole market was 107%, up 0.40 pct from December 5, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, up 1.17 pct from December 5 [29]. 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situation: Low Liquidity Friction - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume was about 8.1 trillion yuan, up 203.9 billion yuan from December 1 - 5. The median of R001 was 1.35%, down 1bp from last week. The median spread of R001 - DR001 was 7.0bp, up 0.6bp from last week, and the median spread of GC001 - R001 was 7.2bp, up 0.8bp from last week [32]. - Fund sentiment index: The overall fund situation was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was mostly below 50 [36]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Basically Flat - The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate was basically the same as last week. This week, the median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, at the 11% quantile since 2020 [38]. 3. Government Bonds: The Net Payment Pressure of Government Bonds Will Decrease in the Next Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 14.8 billion yuan, with a relatively small pressure. Among them, the net repayment of treasury bonds was 69.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of local bonds was 84.5 billion yuan. In the next week, the government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 83.9 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 119.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 35.3 billion yuan for local bonds. The net repayment is highly concentrated on Monday [39]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of December 12, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.7%, up 0.5% in the past week, with about 221 billion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. Local bonds have basically completed issuance [43]. 4. Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Yields Fluctuated Slightly Higher 4.1 Absolute Yields - On December 12, the SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y quotes were 1.28%, 1.45%, 1.53%, 1.59%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.65%, and 1.66% respectively. Except for the 1M term, which increased by 4bp compared with December 5, the quotes of other terms remained unchanged [46]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (December 8 - 12), the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 941.78 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 9%, 27%, 43%, 6%, and 15% respectively. Among them, the proportion of 3M increased by 15 pcts, while those of 1M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 4 pcts, 1 pct, 2 pcts, and 7 pcts respectively [51]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On December 12, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007 was 15bp, at the 34% quantile since 2020. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 18bp, at the 40% quantile since 2020 [54].

新华财经北京12月8日电（高二山）人民银行8日开展1223亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与前次持平；鉴于当 日有1076亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净投放147亿元。 【今日关注】 上海银行间同业拆放利率（12月8日） 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中心 银行间质押式回购市场方面，多数品种微涨，R007小幅走低。具体看，DR001、R001加权平均利率分别上行0.2BP、持 平，报1.3022%、1.3718%，成交额分别减少1496亿元、477亿元；DR007、R007加权平均利率分别上行0.8BP、下行 0.2BP，报1.4459%、1.494%，成交额分别增加102亿元、392亿元；DR014、R014加权平均利率分别上行0.4BP、0.8BP，报 1.5159%、1.5381%，成交额分别增加1亿元、258亿元。 货币市场利率（12月8日） 据上海国际货币经纪公司交易员消息，8日资金面呈均衡态势。早盘大行国股行部分融出。开盘隔夜成交在利率存单1.48% 附近，7天期限成交在1.49%-1.50%区间。14天期限成交至1.48%-1.50%区间。跨年资金成交押利率成交至1.62%附近，押信 用成 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 356.4 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan after 300 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed slight fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 0.20 basis points to 1.3140%, and the 7-day Shibor decreasing by 2.80 basis points to 1.4250% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding prices fluctuated within 3 basis points, with R007 transaction volume exceeding 15%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 0.1 basis points and increased by 0.3 basis points, respectively [4] Group 2 - The overall funding situation remained balanced and slightly loose, with major banks providing sufficient funding supply. Overnight repo rates and certificate of deposit prices opened around 1.45%, with 7-day repo rates declining from 1.52% to around 1.50%-1.51% [9] - In the interbank certificate of deposit market, trading sentiment was generally weak, with the issuance of 1-month and 3-month certificates being the only active ones. The yields for 3-month and 6-month certificates increased slightly, while 1-year rates remained stable [10] - On November 27, the head of the National Financial Supervision Administration met with the Governor of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan to discuss macroeconomic financial conditions and strengthen bilateral financial regulatory cooperation [12]

华西宏观 （四）票据市场：利率转为上行，大行转为净卖出 截止11月21日，1M票据较前一周上行28bp至1.08%，3M上行18bp至0.58%，6M上行14bp至0.77%。在此 期间（11月17-20日），大行净卖出235亿元，11月累计净买入774亿元（去年同期累计净买入2058亿 元）。 （五）政府债：11月24-28日，净缴款2237亿元 （一）概况：税期，资金面起波澜 11月17-21日，资金面波澜再起，周初（17-18日）受税期、政府债缴款及北交所打新等因素影响，资金 面显著承压，R001迅速攀升至1.57%，R007也升至1.53%。周三起，随着央行持续加力投放，且税期走 款即将结束，资金利率迎来下行。直至周五，资金利率才回归合理定价，R001回落至1.39%，低于 OMO利率，R007也逐步下行至1.50%水平。 （二）展望：跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平 下周（11月24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起，拆借7天利率可跨月。参考 今年二季度以来季中月（5月、8月）资金利率在跨月周的变化情况，R007最大上行幅度分别为11、 8bp，而R001多在跨月当日显著上行，幅度 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 22 年 月 日 固定收益定期 存单大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行为跟踪 资金整体平稳，价格小幅波动。或由于央行持续呵护，本周资金价格小 幅下降，本周 R001 收于 1.39%（前值 1.43%），DR001 收于 1.32% （前值 1.37%）。R007 收于 1.50%（（前值 1.49%），DR007 收于 1.44% （前值 1.47%）。DR007 与 7 天 OMO 利差收于 4.08bp。6M 国股银票 转贴利率收于 0.77%（前值 0.63%）。 OMO 净投放平稳，国库现金定存将加量续作。本周央行逆回购投放 16760 亿元，逆回购到期 11220 亿元，逆回购净投放 5540 亿元，与 上周净投放量（6262 亿元）相近。11 月 19 日央行公告，11 月 24 日 将开展 1200 亿元 1M 与 800 亿 21D 国库现金定存，加量续作 800 亿 元。 债市缺乏交易主线，债券收益率窄幅震荡。本周受海外信息影响，股 市大幅回调，但债市交易空间仍然有限，债市收益率整体呈现窄幅震 荡趋势。1 年国债收益率下行 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 300 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 20, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 190 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a loosening of funding conditions, with major term repurchase rates declining. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 5 basis points to around 1.36%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system dropped significantly to 1.35% [3] - There is abundant overnight funding supply, with non-bank institutions borrowing overnight funds at around 1.50%. The end of tax period impacts has led to a recovery in funding conditions, with expectations for further declines in short-term rates [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.21%, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts increased by 0.06% each, and the 2-year contract remained unchanged [11] Group 5: LPR and Regulatory Developments - The November LPR remained stable at 3% for the one-year rate and 3.5% for the five-year and above categories. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for stronger institutional frameworks and risk prevention measures during a recent meeting [12] Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan plans to introduce a new spending plan amounting to 17.7 trillion yen, necessitating the issuance of more bonds to raise funds. The Japanese Finance Minister highlighted the challenges of balancing inflation, bond yields, and a weak yen [14] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Export-Import Bank plans to auction up to 2 billion yuan of 3-year floating rate bonds on November 21. The bond market's "technology board" remains active, with a cumulative issuance scale of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan this year [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's actions, including increased open - market operations and the resumption of treasury bond transactions, have contributed to a stable and slightly fluctuating capital market. Treasury bond yields have declined, and certificate of deposit yields have also decreased, while the bank - to - bank leverage ratio has slightly dropped [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Capital Market - **Funds are stable with slight fluctuations**: This week, R001 closed at 1.41% (previous value 1.38%), DR001 at 1.32% (same as the previous value), R007 at 1.49% (previous value 1.46%), and DR007 at 1.46% (previous value 1.41%). The spread between DR007 and the 7 - day OMO was 5.51bp. The 6M national - share bank bill transfer and discount rate closed at 0.20% (previous value 0.66%) [1]. - **Central bank increases open - market operations**: Facing tax period and end - of - month pressures, the central bank conducted 20680 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations this week, with 8672 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net reverse repurchase injection of 12008 billion yuan. Additionally, 9000 billion yuan in MLF operations were carried out, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan, marking eight consecutive months of increased roll - overs [1]. - **Treasury bond yields decline**: On October 27, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond transactions. This week, the 1 - year treasury bond yield dropped 8.90bp to 1.38%, the 10 - year yield fell 5.32bp to 1.80%, and the 30 - year yield decreased 6.95bp to 2.14% [1]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yields decline**: This week, the 3M yield dropped 3.50bp to 1.56%, the 6M yield fell 4.78bp to 1.60%, and the 1Y yield decreased 4.75bp to 1.63%. The spread between the 1 - year certificate of deposit and R007 narrowed 7.49bp to 13.52bp [2]. - **Net financing slightly decreases and average issuance term shortens**: This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit was 1706 billion yuan (previous value 3454 billion yuan). The 1 - year issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.63%, 1.64%, 1.75%, and 1.68% respectively. The weighted average issuance term was 6.9M (previous value 7.1M), with 1390 billion yuan in 3M certificates of deposit issued, 2316.5 billion yuan in 6M, and 1927.3 billion yuan in 1Y [2]. - **Next - week government bond net issuance slightly decreases and net payment turns negative**: This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, and local bonds had a net issuance of 1757 billion yuan, with a total government bond net issuance of 1757 billion yuan and a total net payment of 4409 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance of treasury bonds is 1504 billion yuan, local bonds - 336 billion yuan, government bond net financing 1168 billion yuan, and total net payment - 599 billion yuan [2]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Bank - to - bank leverage ratio slightly decreases**: This week, the average daily volume of pledged repurchase transactions was 6.70 trillion yuan (previous value 7.83 trillion yuan), and the average daily bank - to - bank market leverage ratio was 107.66% (previous value 109.19%) [3].