Core Viewpoint - The recent news regarding the alleged theft of confidential information by former TSMC executive Luo Wei-ren, who has joined Intel, has raised significant concerns within Taiwan's semiconductor industry and beyond, highlighting potential risks to TSMC's competitive edge and the stability of the global semiconductor market [1][7][15]. Group 1: Allegations and Background - Luo Wei-ren, a former senior vice president at TSMC, reportedly retired in July and joined Intel in October, raising suspicions of potential data theft involving over 20 boxes of confidential documents related to TSMC's advanced processes, including 2nm technology [1][6]. - Luo is recognized for his pivotal role in TSMC's technological advancements, having led the team that achieved over 1500 patents and successfully navigated the challenges of 10nm technology through the "Night Hawk Plan" [3][5]. - The incident has sparked outrage and concern among the public and industry experts, with many questioning the implications for Taiwan's semiconductor industry, which is crucial to the region's economy [7][15]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Implications - The Taiwanese government and TSMC have been slow to respond to the allegations, with some analysts suggesting that there may be deeper issues at play, including potential complicity from TSMC's management [10][11]. - Concerns have been raised about the impact of this incident on TSMC's competitive position, especially in light of increasing pressure from the U.S. government to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. [7][9]. - The Taiwanese authorities have downplayed the incident's significance, asserting that TSMC's long-standing industry position cannot be easily undermined by the actions of a single individual [15].

Core Insights - TSMC is rapidly advancing its 2nm production capabilities, with Kaohsiung set to become a key production hub for the 2nm family, including the introduction of the A16 process in 2024 [3][4][5] - The total investment in the Kaohsiung facility is expected to exceed $50 billion, marking a significant milestone in semiconductor manufacturing [3][4] - The establishment of five fabs (P1 to P5) is projected to create approximately 7,000 high-tech jobs and 20,000 construction jobs, significantly boosting the local economy [3][4][5] Investment and Production Plans - The P1 fab is set to begin mass production of 2nm wafers by the end of this year, while the P2 fab is currently in the equipment installation phase, aiming for mass production in Q2 2024 [3][5] - The P3 fab is expected to start construction in October 2024, with all five fabs projected to be operational by Q4 2027, establishing a leading global 2nm cluster [5] - TSMC's investment in Kaohsiung is anticipated to surpass NT$1.5 trillion, setting a new record for corporate investment in the region [3][4] Technological Advancements - The A16 process will enhance performance and power efficiency, incorporating a new chip architecture that is crucial for AI and high-performance computing [4][5] - The A14 process is scheduled for mass production in 2028, with the main production base located in Taichung, indicating a strong market demand for AI and high-efficiency computing [4][5] Economic Impact - The development of the Nanzih Science Park, which includes the P1 and P2 fabs, is expected to create over 10,000 jobs when considering construction workers and downstream contractors [4] - The local government is committed to optimizing the investment environment to support TSMC's operations and enhance the semiconductor ecosystem in southern Taiwan [5]

Core Insights - TSMC's 1.4nm "A14" process yield performance has reportedly surpassed expectations, indicating strong progress in development [2] - The A16 process integrates advanced technologies, achieving an 8-10% speed increase, a 15-20% reduction in power consumption, and a 1.1x increase in chip density compared to the N2P process, making it suitable for high-performance computing applications [1][4] - The A14 process, designed for AI and smartphone applications, offers up to a 15% speed increase, a 30% reduction in power consumption, and over a 20% increase in chip density compared to the N2 process [1][4] TSMC's Future Plans - TSMC plans to break ground on its 1.4nm factory in the fourth quarter, with an expected production value increase from NT$4,857 billion to NT$5,000 billion and maintaining around 4,500 jobs [4] - The first risk production of the 1.4nm factory is scheduled for 2027, with mass production expected in the second half of 2028 [5] - TSMC's advanced process roadmap extends to 2030, with 2nm mass production set for the second half of 2025 and the introduction of the A16 process in the second half of 2026, promising a further 15-20% improvement in performance and efficiency [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for future growth [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%. The gross margin was 58.6%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Net profit reached $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.2% [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to approximately 30%, driven primarily by demand for advanced processes. In Q2 2025, revenue from N3, N5, and N7 processes accounted for 24%, 36%, and 14% of total wafer revenue, respectively, totaling 74% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI chips, with projections for net profits of $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of $30.07 billion, with a gross margin of 58.6% and net profit of $12.8 billion [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in gross margin is attributed to the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), which impacts revenue when converted from USD. A 1% appreciation in TWD results in a 1% revenue loss and a 40 basis points loss in gross margin. In Q2 2025, TWD appreciated by 4.4%, leading to a 180 basis points decline in gross margin, with further expected appreciation causing an additional 260 basis points loss [3]. - The company anticipates the first-generation N2 process to enter mass production in H2 2025, with subsequent processes expected in 2026 and 2028 [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in the wafer foundry industry, with a competitive edge in advanced processes, expected to benefit from the rise in AI chip demand. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $49.686 billion, $60.379 billion, and $66.768 billion, respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's employee bonuses and dividends for 2024 have reached a record high, reflecting strong revenue and profit growth from the previous year, with an average payout of over NT$200 million per employee [1][2]. Group 1: Employee Compensation - TSMC will distribute a total of NT$140.59 billion in employee performance bonuses and dividends for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][2]. - The average annual bonus per employee is NT$200.84 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of NT$51.32 million, or approximately 34.32% [2]. - Employees with six years of service can expect bonuses as high as NT$1.8 million, while those with five years and top performance ratings can receive around NT$1.16 million [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - TSMC's total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach NT$2.8943 trillion, with a net profit of NT$1.1732 trillion, both figures representing new highs [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be NT$45.25, showcasing TSMC's strong competitive position in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 3: Industry Context - The global semiconductor industry is facing challenges, with competitors like Samsung and Intel experiencing delays and operational difficulties in their advanced process technologies [4][5]. - TSMC maintains its leadership in advanced process technology, with plans to mass-produce 2nm processes in the second half of this year and A16 processes by the second half of 2026 [5]. - The demand for high-end processes is expected to rise due to the growing need for AI servers, further solidifying TSMC's position as a leading foundry [5].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent technology forum in Shanghai highlighted the company's advancements in semiconductor technology and its market outlook, particularly focusing on the growth of the semiconductor market driven by high-performance computing (HPC) and AI integration, despite limitations in advanced process offerings to Chinese clients [3][4][5]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with HPC accounting for 45%, smartphones for 25%, automotive for 15%, and IoT for 10% [5][6]. Advanced Process Technology - TSMC's 3nm family continues to evolve, with N3P expected to enter mass production in Q4 2024, enhancing performance by 5% or reducing power consumption by 5-10% compared to N3E [6][9]. - N2P is anticipated to begin production in H2 2026, offering an 18% performance increase at the same power level and a 36% reduction in power at the same performance level [11][13]. - The A16 process, set for mass production in H2 2026, integrates three innovative technologies, promising an 8-10% performance boost or a 15-20% reduction in power consumption compared to N2P [14][19][22]. - The A14 process, based on second-generation GAA technology, is expected to start production in 2028, with significant improvements in speed and energy efficiency [20][22]. Advanced Packaging Technology - TSMC's 3DFabric® technology includes SoIC platforms for 3D silicon stacking, with N3-on-N4 stacking expected to enter mass production in 2025 [23][25]. - The SoW-X platform, set for 2027, aims to enhance computational capabilities significantly, integrating essential components for AI training [30]. Special Process Technologies - TSMC is advancing automotive technology with its latest logic technologies, which enhance performance by approximately 20% per generation while reducing power consumption by 30-40% [32]. - The company is also focusing on IoT applications, with developments in ultra-low leakage SRAM and logic circuits to extend battery life [38]. Manufacturing Excellence - TSMC anticipates a twelvefold increase in wafer shipments for AI-related products by 2025 compared to 2021 [44]. - The company plans to add nine new facilities by 2025 to expand capacity, including six wafer fabs in Taiwan and two overseas [45]. - TSMC is committed to sustainable manufacturing, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 and a 98% resource recovery rate by 2030 [46][48].