受中国与印度出货量下滑影响，小米智能手机收入可能同比减3%;而AIoT业务因以旧换新补贴减少，增 速或放缓至同比增5%。然而，电动车交付量进一步攀升至10.9万辆，均价约26万元人民币，并可能已 实现收支平衡。里昂预期，小米第四季总收入及调整后净利润将分别同比增15%及16%，主因智能手机 恢复正增长且电动车交付量持续提升，尽管AIoT业务面临更高基数挑战。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，预期小米集团-W(01810)在电动车销售稳健推动下，第三季总收 入及经调整净利润将实现同比分别增长22%及60%，达1,129亿及100亿元人民币。其第二座电动车工厂 获批投产，将成为推升股价重估的催化剂，维持"高度确信跑赢大市"评级，目标价69港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has become a target of widespread criticism across various platforms, indicating its significant impact on multiple industries, including smartphones, home appliances, and automobiles [1][3][11] Group 1: Impact on Home Appliances - Xiaomi has disrupted the home appliance industry, previously dominated by established brands, by introducing innovative designs, smart functionalities, and competitive pricing [4][5] - The company's AIoT business generated revenue of 71 billion in the first half of 2025, with air conditioner sales reaching 5.4 million units, indicating a substantial market share gain from traditional manufacturers [7] Group 2: Automotive Industry Strategy - Xiaomi's unconventional approach to car manufacturing has challenged traditional marketing strategies, with CEO Lei Jun personally engaging in product promotion and social media interactions [9] - In September, Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 40,000 units, showcasing its rapid market penetration and posing a threat to established automotive players [9] Group 3: Industry Reactions and Criticism - The backlash against Xiaomi is largely driven by those whose financial interests have been disrupted, including competitors, advertising agencies, and influencers who relied on traditional marketing methods [11] - The criticism reflects a resistance to Xiaomi's innovative practices that challenge the status quo, ultimately benefiting consumers through lower prices and improved services [11]

Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported a total revenue of 116 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, and a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, up 134.2% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit, based on non-IFRS measures, reached 10.8 billion yuan, marking a 75.4% increase year-on-year [1] IoT Business Performance - Xiaomi's AIoT segment showed strong growth in both domestic and international markets, benefiting from the expansion of its new retail system [3][4] - The company has shifted its focus from rapid expansion to "scaled closure" in its overseas retail strategy, aiming to open 400 to 500 new stores by the end of the year, with a potential for over 1,000 stores in the following year [4] - The growth rate in the Chinese market is higher than in overseas markets, primarily due to the rapid development of the home appliance sector [3] Mobile Business Insights - The gross margin for the mobile business saw a quarter-on-quarter decline, attributed to rising component costs and a limited number of new product launches in Q2 [5][6] - The company anticipates a recovery in gross margin by Q4 2025, coinciding with a more significant release of new products [5] R&D Investments - Xiaomi's R&D expenditure increased by over 40% year-on-year in Q2, marking the fastest growth rate in recent years, with investments spread across core technologies such as chips, AI, and the Surge OS [7][8] - The company is committed to enhancing its technological capabilities, which are deemed essential for maintaining competitiveness in the market [7][8] AIoT Margins and Market Dynamics - The IoT business's gross margin showed a year-on-year increase but faced some pressure on a quarter-on-quarter basis, influenced by promotional activities like the "618 shopping festival" [6][9] - Despite competitive pressures in the home appliance market, Xiaomi remains on track to meet its annual targets for the IoT segment [7]

该行预期，小米AIoT业务在次季将保持快速增长，预测次季及全年的AIoT销售额分别为366亿及1406亿 元，按年增长37%和35%。该行将集团次季及全年盈测分别下调10.4%和5.5%，目标价由62港元下调至 60港元，维持"中性"评级。 瑞银发表研究报告指，据统计，小米次季的智能手机销量为4100万部，按年增0.5%，按季升1.5%。当 中，中国市场在补贴及618购物节的带动下，销量按年增长8%。受惠于新兴市场及中国中高阶市场占有 率提升，预期小米全年总销量达1.75亿部。由于618促销活动令均价下跌，加上新兴市场贡献占比扩张 抵销了持续高端化的贡献，预期第二季智能手机毛利率将按季大致持平于11.6%。 ...