行业点评报告·消费行业 元旦客流引领复苏，空调提价打响反内卷 2026 年 1 月 4 日 核心观点 ⚫ 事件：2026 年，大力提振消费是重要政策方向。我们看好服务消费活力释放， 以及国补对商品消费的刺激作用。体验型服务消费是重要的增长点，元旦假期 游客度假选择愈发多元，如冰雪运动、避寒休闲、文化体验、亲子游乐等场景。 2026 年将有元旦、春节、中秋节与国庆节四大加强版假期，更有利于服务消 费。其中元旦假期长达 3 天；春节假期 9 天是史上最长；中秋不再"占用"国 庆假期，多出 2 天独立中秋假。 ⚫ 服务消费，元旦出行数据高增长： 交通运输数据，元旦假期期间，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累计 5.9 亿人 次，日均 1.98 亿人次，同比（2025 年 1 日至 3 日，1 天假期，下同）增长 19.5%。其中，铁路客运量预计 4822.3 万人次，同比增长 53.1%。公路人员 流动量预计 5.4 亿人次，同比增长 15.5%。水路客运量预计 229.0 万人次，同 比增长 35.3%。民航客运量预计 588.1 万人次，同比增长 10.49%。客流的恢 复，带动文旅、酒店与餐饮恢复，使服务消费成为假 ...

"零关税"红利将全面升级。封关后，大量进口原材料、设备将免除关税，尤其利好"两头在外"的加工制造企业。而更具吸引力的"加工增值免关税"政策， 允许在海南加工增值超过30%的货物进入内地免关税，且新规将本地原料也计入增值，使达标更容易，为高端制造提供了独特落地方案。 12月11日，一场关于"出海口"与"加油站"的对话在全球服务中心热烈展开。由海南国际经济发展局、招商银行联合主办，海口国际经济促进局、全球服务 中心支持的海南自由贸易港科技消费产业封关政策推介暨第六届中国国际消费品博览会（大湾区）路演活动成功举办，吸引了超50名大湾区科技消费企业 代表参会。深汇通集团副总经理黄小军、全球服务中心总经理李效冶一同参会。 "我们此行不仅是推介，更是'扩圈'。"海南国际经济发展局总经济师曾蓉的开场白，点明了深琼联动的深层含义。本次活动聚焦海南自由贸易港全岛封关 运作关键阶段的政策机遇与产业合作，进一步宣介海南自贸港核心政策，深化海南与深圳南山及出海服务生态伙伴的合作，助力大湾区企业借助自贸港及 消博会平台链接全球资源，实现更高水平的国际化发展战略。 封关在即：政策"工具箱"释放"真金白银" 12月18日，海南自由贸易港将 ...

近日，智通财经与科创板日报联合发布"PIONEER TO THE STAR 2025中国科创好公司"榜单。MOVA凭 借其在全球科技消费领域的突出表现，成功入选"科技消费好公司"类别。该榜单公司涵盖多个创新赛 道，旨在表彰具有技术实力与市场影响力的优秀企业。MOVA的入选，体现了其在产品创新与用户体验 方面的行业认可。 PIONEER TO THE STAR 2025 中国科创好公司榜单揭晓 MOVA 发布单位:C 则明关社 ■ 科创板日报 最终解释权归财联社|科创板日报所有 ...

背景 11月26日，六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方 案》）的通知。到2027年，消费品供给结构明显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热 点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉全球的高品质消费品；到2030年，供给与消费良性互动，相互促进的 高质量发展格局基本形成，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳步提升。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，消费行业需要重视"十五五"规划中消费的中长期目标； 短期关注针对2026年消费相关政策。该行对消费行业2026年海外业务的发展持乐观观点。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 2）2024年12月中央经济工作会议将大力提振消费列为2025年经济工作首要任务，此后围绕提振消费的 各类政策不断。2025年3月，《提振消费专项行动方案》部署8大方面30项重点任务；2025年4月，国家 税务总局全面推广境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"；2025年9月，《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推 进体育产业高质量发展的意见》重点提及激发体育消费需求。3）2025年10月，十五五规划建议中将消 费行业置于战略高度，提出"大力提振消费，增强居民消费能力， ...

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and leading the development of new productive forces, focusing on areas such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communication as new economic growth points [1] - The plan suggests improving the new type of national system and implementing extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, China's strategic goal has shifted from "catching up" to "leading," moving from merely addressing technological bottlenecks to actively participating in and leading competition in the technology industry [1] Group 2 - The plan also aims to boost consumption through special actions, enhancing brand leadership, upgrading standards, and applying new technologies to expand and upgrade consumer goods, creating new consumption scenarios that are widely impactful [1] - Galaxy Securities highlights that leading new supply with new demand involves developing new consumption trends, such as emotional consumption, which has given rise to new sectors like trendy toys, outdoor activities, pet economy, traditional gold ornaments, and beauty products [1] - The emergence of IP-related economies, where both middle-aged and young consumers engage in trendy toys and anime culture, reflects a significant social phenomenon [1] Group 3 - Companies like Roborock, Ecovacs, and Yingshi Innovation are noted for their leading advantages in the international market for certain technology consumer products, achieving high-end brand positioning in Europe and the United States [2] - East China Numerical Control specializes in CNC machine tools and ordinary machine tools, holding core technologies in key functional components such as dynamic and static pressure combined spindle support, static pressure turntables, hydraulic control systems, and various accessory milling heads [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the new consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of technology-driven consumer products and new consumption trends [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the guidance from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session regarding the future development of the consumption industry, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and creating new supply through new demand [2]. - It emphasizes the rapid advancement of technology consumption in China, with certain products gaining competitive advantages in international markets, such as drones and smart home devices [2]. - The integration of AI with the consumer industry is identified as a key trend, leading to the emergence of innovative products and services [2]. - New consumption trends are driven by changing demographics and consumer preferences, with emotional consumption becoming a significant focus [2]. - Traditional consumption faces temporary pressures due to factors like housing prices and employment, but many sectors maintain strong international competitiveness [2]. Summary by Sections New Supply and Demand - The report discusses how new supply can create new demand, particularly through technological advancements in consumer products [2]. - It mentions the low penetration rates of certain tech products, indicating significant growth potential [2]. New Consumption Development - New consumption is rapidly evolving, driven by changes in population structure and consumer attitudes [2]. - Emotional consumption is highlighted as a key area, with trends in collectibles, outdoor activities, and pet-related products gaining traction [2]. Traditional Consumption Challenges - The report notes that traditional consumption is under pressure but retains strong international competitiveness [2]. - It anticipates a rebound in traditional consumption due to government subsidies in late 2024 and 2025, despite facing challenges from high export bases and tariff barriers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including consumer services, food and beverage, agriculture, textiles, and technology consumption [2]. - Notable mentions include companies like Dongpeng Beverage, Anta Sports, and Roborock Technology, among others [2].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has become a target of widespread criticism across various platforms, indicating its significant impact on multiple industries, including smartphones, home appliances, and automobiles [1][3][11] Group 1: Impact on Home Appliances - Xiaomi has disrupted the home appliance industry, previously dominated by established brands, by introducing innovative designs, smart functionalities, and competitive pricing [4][5] - The company's AIoT business generated revenue of 71 billion in the first half of 2025, with air conditioner sales reaching 5.4 million units, indicating a substantial market share gain from traditional manufacturers [7] Group 2: Automotive Industry Strategy - Xiaomi's unconventional approach to car manufacturing has challenged traditional marketing strategies, with CEO Lei Jun personally engaging in product promotion and social media interactions [9] - In September, Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 40,000 units, showcasing its rapid market penetration and posing a threat to established automotive players [9] Group 3: Industry Reactions and Criticism - The backlash against Xiaomi is largely driven by those whose financial interests have been disrupted, including competitors, advertising agencies, and influencers who relied on traditional marketing methods [11] - The criticism reflects a resistance to Xiaomi's innovative practices that challenge the status quo, ultimately benefiting consumers through lower prices and improved services [11]

Core Insights - Shenzhen is rapidly enhancing its offline consumption landscape with the opening of new commercial complexes and flagship stores, positioning itself as an international consumption center [1][2][3] Group 1: New Commercial Developments - The opening of Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II and the first JD MALL in Nanshan marks the introduction of four new commercial complexes in the Houhai-Shenzhen Bay business district this year [1][2] - Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II spans 167,000 square meters and features over 300 international brands, including more than 50 luxury and designer labels [2] - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce has identified the Houhai-Shenzhen Bay area as a "world-class business district" with significant long-term potential [1] Group 2: International Brand Integration - Shenzhen is attracting a variety of world-class brands, enhancing the shopping experience and creating a unique consumer environment [2][3] - The introduction of high-end brands and Michelin-starred restaurants in new complexes is diversifying Shenzhen's luxury consumption landscape [2] Group 3: International Consumption Environment - Shenzhen has seen 130 million inbound and outbound travelers in the first half of the year, highlighting the city's potential to convert tourist foot traffic into consumer spending [3] - The establishment of multiple tax refund points and "immediate refund" stores in the Nanshan District is improving the international shopping experience [3] Group 4: Technology-Driven Consumption - The launch of flagship stores for tech brands like Honor and Tuo Zhu in Shenzhen Bay MixC Phase II emphasizes the city's focus on technology-enhanced shopping experiences [4][6] - The integration of cutting-edge technology in retail, such as AI and 3D printing, is positioning Shenzhen as a leader in innovative consumer experiences [6][7] Group 5: Youth and Trend-Driven Consumption - The emergence of popular cultural icons and experiential marketing strategies is attracting younger consumers and enhancing the shopping atmosphere in Shenzhen [9][10] - Projects like K11 ECOAST and Taizi Bay VILLA are creating unique retail experiences that cater to high-end and tech-savvy consumers [9][10]

Group 1: Coal Industry - The introduction of the "430, 531" policies is expected to reduce the profitability of new energy projects, leading to a slowdown in new energy development after a surge in installations in early 2025, with a potential demand turning point for thermal coal expected around 2027 [2][5][6] - The rapid growth of new energy installations has significantly pressured thermal power demand, with the share of thermal power generation capacity decreasing from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the coal sector, including Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Jinkong Energy, China Shenhua, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the easing of pressure on thermal coal [3] Group 2: Beverage Industry - The tea beverage industry is experiencing high demand driven by competition in the takeaway market and the introduction of new product categories, with a forecasted revenue growth of 16% in 2025 [7][8] - The company anticipates a double-digit profit growth in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in product launches and improvements in supply chain efficiency [8] - The competitive landscape is improving as price wars in the tea beverage sector have begun to stabilize, benefiting brand players [7] Group 3: Stablecoin Industry - The stablecoin market is projected to expand significantly, with potential growth to $3.5 trillion driven by applications in crypto asset trading, cross-border payments, consumer payments, and traditional capital markets [14][15] - Circle, a leading stablecoin issuer, is focusing on building an ecosystem around its USDC stablecoin, which has shown strong revenue growth but faces challenges related to profit margins and regulatory uncertainties [15][14] Group 4: Robotics Industry - The tactile sensor market is expected to see substantial growth, with the potential for a trillion-dollar market as humanoid robots become more prevalent [16][19] - The report highlights the importance of tactile sensors in the development of humanoid robots, indicating a significant market opportunity as production scales increase [19][16] - Various technological routes in tactile sensing are being explored, with a focus on integrating multiple technologies to overcome performance and cost barriers [17][19]

Core Insights - The online consumption power of male users in China is increasing, particularly among those under 30, with a notable rise in high-end spending over 2000 yuan, driven by self-indulgent and stress-relief consumption needs in gaming, trendy toys, sports, and technology products [1][3] Group 1: Gaming - Male users account for nearly 70% of the gaming market, with the industry experiencing sustained growth during the summer season [1][3] - In May 2025, a total of 144 game licenses were issued, marking a new monthly high, which is expected to boost search traffic for gaming on platforms like Baidu starting in July [3] Group 2: Trendy Toys - The domestic IP toy market is growing robustly, with sci-fi mecha IPs being particularly popular among male consumers [1][3] - EDC (Everyday Carry) products have emerged as a rapidly growing segment, with 80% of EDC users being male, and sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival saw over a fourfold year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Sports - Males are the primary audience for sports viewership, and there is a continuous increase in fitness-related demands [1][3] Group 4: Technology Consumption - Young and middle-aged males exhibit dual characteristics of tech-savvy and quality-oriented consumption, with rapid growth in outdoor cameras and gaming consoles [1][3] - By April 2025, the monthly active user (MAU) count for male users in China is projected to reach 634 million, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase [1]