（原标题：12月降息概率跌破50% 美联储降息预期生变！A股将如何演绎？） 在美联储官员释放鹰派信号叠加市场对人工智能（AI）企业业绩"泡沫"的担忧等因素下，全球股市上周 遭遇"黑色星期五"。作为全球首个开市的主要市场，中东股市率先为本周的交易"试水"。 数据显示，埃及股市涨超2.5%，创收盘历史新高，沙特、卡塔尔股指跌1%，表现差异明显。 中东市场表现分化 周日（11月16日），沙特证交所全股指数微幅跳空低开之后持续震荡，之后持续下跌，截至当日收盘， 指数收跌1.12%，报11052.61点。个股方面，沙特阿美（ARAMCO.AB）收跌1.08%，报25.58沙特里亚 尔。 在沙特上市的Albilad南方东英MSCI香港中国股票ETF收跌0.63%，报12.54沙特里亚尔。 埃及证交所EGX 30指数表现强势，收涨2.54%，报41211.27点，指数突破11月9日所创收盘历史最高位 40821.96点，尾盘一度刷新盘中历史最高位至41342.05点。 卡塔尔证交所指数收跌1.01%，连续三个交易日下挫，报10846.84点；科威特证交所超级市场价格回报 指数收跌0.57%，报9388.58点。 美联储12 ...

在美联储官员释放鹰派信号叠加市场对人工智能（AI）企业业绩"泡沫"的担忧等因素下，全球股市上周 遭遇"黑色星期五"。作为全球首个开市的主要市场，中东股市率先为本周的交易"试水"。 数据显示，埃及股市涨超2.5%，创收盘历史新高，沙特、卡塔尔股指跌1%，表现差异明显。 中东市场表现分化 另外，美银和野村已经在研报中预计，美联储将在12月按兵不动。 周日（11月16日），沙特证交所全股指数微幅跳空低开之后持续震荡，之后持续下跌，截至当日收盘， 指数收跌1.12%，报11052.61点。个股方面，沙特阿美（ARAMCO.AB）收跌1.08%，报25.58沙特里亚 尔。 在沙特上市的Albilad南方东英MSCI香港中国股票ETF收跌0.63%，报12.54沙特里亚尔。 埃及证交所EGX 30指数表现强势，收涨2.54%，报41211.27点，指数突破11月9日所创收盘历史最高位 40821.96点，尾盘一度刷新盘中历史最高位至41342.05点。 卡塔尔证交所指数收跌1.01%，连续三个交易日下挫，报10846.84点；科威特证交所超级市场价格回报 指数收跌0.57%，报9388.58点。 美联储12月降息概率跌破 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] Group 1: Middle East Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical closing high, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar indices fell by 1% [1] - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [2] - The EGX30 index in Egypt rose 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high of 40,821.96 points [3] - The Qatari index fell 1.01%, marking three consecutive days of decline, closing at 10,846.84 points [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate increased to 55.6% [4] - Predictions indicate that the Fed may not cut rates in December, contrasting with a month ago when the market expected a 95% chance of a cut [5] - Concerns have risen among Fed officials regarding decision-making amid data uncertainty due to the government shutdown, with labor market indicators showing weakness [5] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Short-term liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain loose, with a potential slowdown in capital inflow due to decreased overseas rate cut expectations [6] - The market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [6] - If new policies are introduced or if economic data shows signs of recovery, certain sectors may attract capital inflow [6]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets faced significant declines, termed "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] Group 1: Middle East Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market rose over 2.5%, reaching a historical closing high, while Saudi and Qatari indices fell by 1%, indicating a stark performance divergence [2] - On November 16, the Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [3] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 0.63% to 12.54 Saudi Riyals, while the Egyptian EGX 30 index surged 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high of 40,821.96 points [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December fell below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate increased to 55.6% [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will have access to complete data on employment, inflation, retail sales, and GDP before the December FOMC meeting, with key focus on the employment reports for October and November [5] - A month ago, market expectations for a rate cut were as high as 95%, but uncertainty has risen due to the government shutdown affecting data releases [6] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - External factors are expected to influence the A-share market, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but overseas rate cut expectations declining [7] - The market is in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [7] - If new policies are introduced or if there are signs of recovery in inflation and economic data, related sectors may see an influx of capital [7]

中东市场表现分化 周日（11月16日），沙特证交所全股指数微幅跳空低开之后持续震荡，之后持续下跌，截至当日收盘，指数收跌1.12%，报11052.61点。个股方面，沙特阿美 （ARAMCO.AB）收跌1.08%，报25.58沙特里亚尔。 在沙特上市的Albilad南方东英MSCI香港中国股票ETF收跌0.63%，报12.54沙特里亚尔。 埃及证交所EGX 30指数表现强势，收涨2.54%，报41211.27点，指数突破11月9日所创收盘历史最高位40821.96点，尾盘一度刷新盘中历史最高位至41342.05点。 卡塔尔证交所指数收跌1.01%，连续三个交易日下挫，报10846.84点；科威特证交所超级市场价格回报指数收跌0.57%，报9388.58点。 在美联储官员释放鹰派信号叠加市场对人工智能（AI）企业业绩"泡沫"的担忧等因素下，全球股市上周遭遇"黑色星期五"。作为全球首个开市的主要市 场，中东股市率先为本周的交易"试水"。 数据显示，埃及股市涨超2.5%，创收盘历史新高，沙特、卡塔尔股指跌1%，表现差异明显。 A股将如何演绎？ 在外部因素的扰动下，A股本周行情将会如何演绎呢？ 华金证券研报表示，短期流 ...

周二（7月29日），沙特证交所全股指数收跌0.56%，报10823.91点。 卡塔尔证交所指数收跌0.57%，科威特证交所超级市场价格回报指数收涨0.54%，埃及证交所EGX 30指 数收涨0.03%。 迪拜金融市场综合指数收涨0.16%，阿布扎比证券市场综合指数收跌0.20%。 在沙特上市的Albilad南方东英MSCI香港中国股票ETF收平，报12.20沙特里亚尔，北京时间18:20曾涨至 12.24里亚尔，继续创盘中历史新高。 沙特阿美（ARAMCO.AB）收涨0.04%，报24.17沙特里亚尔。 ...

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market closed with the all-share index rising by 0.10%, reaching 10,956.22 points [1] - Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO.AB) saw an increase of 0.33%, closing at 24.11 Saudi Riyals [2] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia also rose by 0.33%, closing at 12.15 Saudi Riyals, marking a new historical closing high [2]

Market Performance - The Saudi stock market index closed down by 0.29% at 11,006.98 points on July 17, marking a cumulative decline of 2.39% for the week, ending a three-week upward trend [1] - Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO.AB) fell by 1.11% to 24.10 Saudi Riyals, with a weekly decline of 3.75% [1] ETF Performance - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia rose by 1.39% to 11.71 Saudi Riyals, breaking the previous closing high of 11.47 Riyals on June 12, and achieving a cumulative weekly increase of 3.90% [1]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market closed down 1.05% on July 15, with the all-share index at 11,095.41 points [1] - Saudi Aramco's stock decreased by 1.05%, closing at 24.60 Saudi Riyals [1] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia rose by 1.42%, reaching 11.45 Saudi Riyals, approaching its historical closing high of 11.47 Riyals on June 12 [1]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market index closed down 0.35% on June 30, at 11,163.96 points, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% in June, ending a four-month decline trend [1] - Saudi Aramco's stock rose 0.08% to 24.32 SAR, with a cumulative decline of 2.72% in June, marking six consecutive months of decline, and a total drop of approximately 3.30% in the first half of the year [1] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia increased by 0.09% to 11.24 SAR, with a cumulative increase of 3.12% in June, marking the second consecutive month of gains and over 19.57% increase in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - In June, WTI crude oil rose approximately 8.9% and Brent crude oil increased about 8.0%, while Saudi Aramco's stock continued to decline despite the rise in oil prices [1] - The Albilad ETF reached a historical intraday high of 11.54 SAR on June 11 and a closing historical high of 11.47 SAR on June 12 [1]