Core Viewpoint - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has fallen below 50%, leading to a shift in market expectations and impacting global stock markets, including A-shares in China [5][6]. Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market rose over 2.5%, reaching a record closing high, while Saudi and Qatari indices fell by 1%, indicating a divergence in market performance [2][4]. - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares declining by 1.08% [3][4]. - The EGX 30 index in Egypt closed up 2.54% at 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous record high [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is now at 44.4%, with a 55.6% chance of maintaining current rates [5]. - Predictions from Morgan Stanley suggest that the Fed will have access to key economic data before the December meeting, which will influence their decision-making [5][6]. - Recent hawkish statements from Fed officials and concerns over economic data have increased market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment [6]. A-share Market Outlook - Short-term liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain loose, but inflows may slow due to decreased overseas rate cut expectations [7]. - The market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [8]. - If new policies are introduced or if there are signs of economic recovery in upcoming data, certain sectors may attract capital inflows [8].

Group 1 - Global stock markets faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] - The Middle East stock market was the first major market to open for trading this week, showing varied performance across different countries [1] Group 2 - The Egyptian stock market surged over 2.5%, reaching a record closing high, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar indices fell by 1%, indicating a stark contrast in market performance [2] - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [3] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 0.63% to 12.54 Saudi Riyals, while the Egyptian EGX 30 index rose by 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous record [4] Group 3 - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, with the likelihood of maintaining current rates rising to 55.6% [5] - Market analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely remain on hold in December, contrasting with a month ago when the probability of a rate cut was as high as 95% [6] Group 4 - A-shares are expected to be influenced by external factors, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but overseas rate cut expectations declining [7] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [7]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] Group 1: Middle East Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical closing high, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar indices fell by 1% [1] - The Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [2] - The EGX30 index in Egypt rose 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high of 40,821.96 points [3] - The Qatari index fell 1.01%, marking three consecutive days of decline, closing at 10,846.84 points [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate increased to 55.6% [4] - Predictions indicate that the Fed may not cut rates in December, contrasting with a month ago when the market expected a 95% chance of a cut [5] - Concerns have risen among Fed officials regarding decision-making amid data uncertainty due to the government shutdown, with labor market indicators showing weakness [5] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Short-term liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain loose, with a potential slowdown in capital inflow due to decreased overseas rate cut expectations [6] - The market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [6] - If new policies are introduced or if economic data shows signs of recovery, certain sectors may attract capital inflow [6]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets faced significant declines, termed "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] Group 1: Middle East Market Performance - The Egyptian stock market rose over 2.5%, reaching a historical closing high, while Saudi and Qatari indices fell by 1%, indicating a stark performance divergence [2] - On November 16, the Saudi stock exchange index closed down 1.12% at 11,052.61 points, with Saudi Aramco shares dropping 1.08% to 25.58 Saudi Riyals [3] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 0.63% to 12.54 Saudi Riyals, while the Egyptian EGX 30 index surged 2.54% to 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high of 40,821.96 points [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December fell below 50%, now at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate increased to 55.6% [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will have access to complete data on employment, inflation, retail sales, and GDP before the December FOMC meeting, with key focus on the employment reports for October and November [5] - A month ago, market expectations for a rate cut were as high as 95%, but uncertainty has risen due to the government shutdown affecting data releases [6] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - External factors are expected to influence the A-share market, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but overseas rate cut expectations declining [7] - The market is in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI computing and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [7] - If new policies are introduced or if there are signs of recovery in inflation and economic data, related sectors may see an influx of capital [7]

Group 1 - The global stock market faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] - The Middle East stock market was the first major market to open for trading this week, showing varied performance across different countries [1][3] Group 2 - The Egyptian stock market saw a strong performance, with the EGX 30 index rising by 2.54% to close at 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high [2][6] - In contrast, the Saudi stock market index fell by 1.12%, closing at 11,052.61 points, with notable declines in individual stocks such as Saudi Aramco [4][5] - The Qatari stock index decreased by 1.01%, marking three consecutive days of decline, while the Kuwaiti index also fell by 0.57% [7] Group 3 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped below 50%, with only a 44.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 55.6% [9][10] - Market analysts express concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly due to recent labor market data and inflation rates remaining above the target [10] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to be influenced by external factors, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but a slowdown in capital inflow is anticipated [12] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [12][13]

Core Points - The Saudi stock market index closed down by 0.56%, reaching 10,823.91 points [1] - Saudi Aramco's stock increased by 0.04%, closing at 24.17 Saudi Riyals [1] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF remained flat at 12.20 Saudi Riyals, having reached an intraday high of 12.24 Riyals [1] - The Qatar stock exchange index decreased by 0.57% [1] - The Kuwait stock exchange's price return index increased by 0.54% [1] - The EGX 30 index in Egypt saw a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The Dubai Financial Market General Index rose by 0.16% [1] - The Abu Dhabi Securities Market General Index fell by 0.20% [1]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market closed with the all-share index rising by 0.10%, reaching 10,956.22 points [1] - Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO.AB) saw an increase of 0.33%, closing at 24.11 Saudi Riyals [2] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia also rose by 0.33%, closing at 12.15 Saudi Riyals, marking a new historical closing high [2]

Market Performance - The Saudi stock market index closed down by 0.29% at 11,006.98 points on July 17, marking a cumulative decline of 2.39% for the week, ending a three-week upward trend [1] - Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO.AB) fell by 1.11% to 24.10 Saudi Riyals, with a weekly decline of 3.75% [1] ETF Performance - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia rose by 1.39% to 11.71 Saudi Riyals, breaking the previous closing high of 11.47 Riyals on June 12, and achieving a cumulative weekly increase of 3.90% [1]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market closed down 1.05% on July 15, with the all-share index at 11,095.41 points [1] - Saudi Aramco's stock decreased by 1.05%, closing at 24.60 Saudi Riyals [1] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia rose by 1.42%, reaching 11.45 Saudi Riyals, approaching its historical closing high of 11.47 Riyals on June 12 [1]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market index closed down 0.35% on June 30, at 11,163.96 points, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% in June, ending a four-month decline trend [1] - Saudi Aramco's stock rose 0.08% to 24.32 SAR, with a cumulative decline of 2.72% in June, marking six consecutive months of decline, and a total drop of approximately 3.30% in the first half of the year [1] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia increased by 0.09% to 11.24 SAR, with a cumulative increase of 3.12% in June, marking the second consecutive month of gains and over 19.57% increase in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - In June, WTI crude oil rose approximately 8.9% and Brent crude oil increased about 8.0%, while Saudi Aramco's stock continued to decline despite the rise in oil prices [1] - The Albilad ETF reached a historical intraday high of 11.54 SAR on June 11 and a closing historical high of 11.47 SAR on June 12 [1]