炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ "在正常环境下，微软的这些业绩其实已经相当不错了。但在如此庞大的支出背景下，且市场预期已定 价至近乎完美，你必须每一个指标都达标，"GuideStone Funds公共投资组合经理Josh Chastant对此评价 道。该机构手中持有微软股份。 这一观点其实也能在另一只"七巨头"个股Meta上得到部分印证——是的，尽管Meta上周财报预测将实现 四年多来最快的季度营收增长，令投资者上周四推动其股价飙升了10%，创下7月以来的最佳单日表 现。但有鉴于该公司同样表示计划到2026年将资本支出增加多达87%，这一负面因素依然在上周五产生 了一定影响，Meta股价随后回落了近3%，创下去年10月30日以来最差单日表现。 这些市场反馈，揭示了科技巨头们目前依然正行走在愈发狭窄的钢丝上——AI领域已持续三年的涨势 建立在一种押注之上：即这些公司雄厚的财力和激进的投资，将使他们处于下一次变革性技术的前沿。 只要有增长支撑，投资者可以忍受巨额支出；否则，它们就得准备好迎接惩罚。 "我们已然进入这样一个时代：只有实现人工智能资本支出的变现，科技股估值才具 ...

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者潇湘 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 华尔街对AI支出成本的担忧，已在股市相对平静的表面下酝酿了数月，而如今似乎正又一次爆发。 微软上周三公布了一份本身尚属稳健的财报，但更多投资者的目光却聚焦于其Azure云计算业务增长的停滞，以及今年预计将投入逾1000亿 美元的资本支出上。 这最终导致微软创下2020年3月以来最惨淡的单周表现，其中上周四一天内就暴跌10%，上周五抛售潮持续——短短两个交易日市值就蒸发 了3810亿美元。 " 在正常环境下，微软的这些业绩其实已经相当不错了。但在如此庞大的支出背景下，且市场预期已定价至近乎完美，你必须每一个指标都 达标， " GuideStone Funds公共投资组合经理Josh Chastant对此评价道。该机构手中持有微软股份。 这一观点其实也能在另一只"七巨头"个股Meta上得到部分印证——是的，尽管Meta上周财报预测将实现四年多来最快的季度营收增长，令 投资者上周四推动其股价飙升了10%，创下7月以来的最佳单日表现。但有鉴于该公司同样表示计划到2026年将资本支出增加多达87%， 这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The contrasting market reactions to the earnings reports of Meta and Microsoft highlight differing investor sentiments regarding future growth potential, with Meta's stock rising significantly while Microsoft's fell sharply [4][18]. Group 1: Meta's Financial Performance - In Q4 of fiscal year 2025, Meta reported revenues of $59.893 billion, a year-over-year increase of 24%, surpassing Wall Street expectations [7]. - Net income for the same quarter was $22.768 billion, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year [8]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $8.88, up 11% from the previous year, with advertising revenue contributing 97% of total revenue [9]. - Daily active users across Meta's family of apps averaged 3.58 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, with ad impressions and average ad prices also showing growth [9]. Group 2: Meta's Future Investments and AI Strategy - Meta has increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to between $115 billion and $135 billion, indicating a strong commitment to AI development [13]. - The company has restructured its AI operations and established a super-intelligent lab, with plans to release new AI models in the coming months [14][15]. - CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized the company's rapid development momentum and its aim to expand into frontier areas through AI [16]. Group 3: Microsoft's Financial Performance and Challenges - Microsoft reported a 38% growth in Azure cloud business revenue, although this represented a slight slowdown from previous quarters [22]. - The overall revenue growth for Microsoft decreased from 18% to 17%, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of its growth [22]. - CFO Amy Hood stated that the company is facing high demand for Azure services but is constrained by supply issues, particularly regarding GPU and CPU resources [30][31]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors are increasingly focused on the future contributions of Microsoft's AI investments, particularly in its Copilot products, which have seen significant user growth [33]. - The market's patience with Microsoft's performance is waning, as it is expected to deliver measurable returns on its early investments in AI [28][40]. - In contrast, Meta is still in a phase where it can afford to invest heavily in AI without immediate returns, as its advertising base remains stable and cash flow is strong [40][42].

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft experienced a significant stock sell-off, resulting in a market cap loss of $357 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft's stock price plummeted by 10%, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1]. - The company's market cap loss exceeded the total market cap of over 90% of the S&P 500 index members [1]. - This event follows a historical precedent where Nvidia faced a $593 billion market cap loss in January 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Results and AI Investment - Microsoft's recent earnings report revealed record AI spending, with capital expenditures increasing by 66% to $37.5 billion [3]. - The growth rate of the Azure cloud computing business has slowed compared to the previous quarter [3]. - Microsoft faces capacity constraints in AI demand, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaling $625 billion, of which approximately 45% is linked to its partnership with OpenAI [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary - There is growing skepticism among investors regarding the return on investment (ROI) from Microsoft's substantial AI expenditures [3]. - Analysts suggest that Microsoft's stock may need to be revalued to align with its historical fair value due to the perceived lack of strong ROI from AI investments [3].

金价、银价高位巨震。 当地时间1月29日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，纳斯达克指数跌0.72%，标普500指数跌0.13%，道琼斯指数涨 0.11%，大型科技股涨跌互现，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.35%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 句 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49071.56c | 55.96 | 0.11% | | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 23685.12c | -172.33 | -0.72% | | | SPX | 标普500 | 6969.01c | -9.02 | -0.13% | | 黄金、白银价格出现急涨急跌的震荡。伦敦金现盘中一度从每盎司5500美元以上跳水至5100美元附近，当日振 幅近9%，随后又迅速反弹至每盎司5300美元以上。白银同样坐了趟"过山车"。 微软创六年以来最大单日跌幅 当地时间周四，微软股价下跌9.99%，报433.5美元，创下2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅。盘中微软股价一度下跌 超12%，市值一度蒸发约4300亿美元，已经超越了越南和芬兰等国家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported a 17% year-over-year revenue growth to $81.3 billion for Q2, with operating profit increasing by 21% to $38.3 billion, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the second fiscal quarter reached $81.3 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Operating profit rose to $38.3 billion, marking a 21% year-over-year growth [1] Group 2: Azure Cloud Business - Azure cloud computing revenue grew by 38% year-over-year, aligning with analyst expectations, but showed a 1 percentage point slowdown compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures surged by 66% year-over-year, reaching a record $37.5 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability and profitability of AI demand [1]

微软周三盘后公布第二财季财报显示，该公司季度资本支出飙升至历史新高，同时云业务销售增速放缓，引发投资者担忧其在人工智能领域的 大规模投入可能需要比预期更长的时间才能见效，导致公司盘后股价下跌约5%。 微软第二财季营收812.7亿美元，分析师预期803.1亿美元。 智能云营收329.1亿美元，预期323.9亿美元。 微软周三盘后公布第二财季财报显示，该公司季度资本支出飙升至历史新高，同时云业务销售增速放缓，引发投资者担忧其在人工智能领域的大 规模投入可能需要比预期更长的时间才能见效，导致公司盘后股价下跌约5%。 以下是微软财报要点： 主要财务数据： 营收： 第二财季营收为813亿美元，同比增长17%，高于分析师预期803.1亿美元。 营业利润： 营业利润为383亿美元，同比增长21%。 净利润： 按GAAP口径计算，净利润为385亿美元，同比增长60%；按非GAAP口径计算，净利润为309亿美元，同比增长23%；按固定汇率计算，同比增 长21%。 每股收益： 按GAAP口径计算，稀释后每股收益为5.16美元，同比增长60%，高于分析师预期的3.92美元；按非GAAP口径计算，稀释后每股收益为4.14 美元，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are concerned about the return on massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) as Microsoft and Meta Platforms prepare to release their earnings reports, which may provide insights into the profitability of such expenditures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Earnings and Market Reactions - Microsoft and Meta are among the top four companies in the U.S. for AI spending, with a projected capital expenditure of approximately $505 billion in 2026, up from an estimated $366 billion in 2025 [1]. - Since the last earnings report on October 29, 2022, Microsoft's stock has dropped by 11%, while Meta's stock has decreased by about 10%, contrasting with a 1.3% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period [1]. - Investors are closely monitoring the return on investment for these expenditures, with Jonathan Kofsky from Janus Henderson emphasizing that quarterly evaluations will be critical [1][4]. Group 2: AI Spending and Market Implications - Any indication that Microsoft and Meta plan to invest more than expected in AI could pressure their stock prices, while benefiting companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron that stand to gain from such spending [4]. - Seagate has reported strong demand for high-capacity hard drives, which is expected to continue at least until 2027, positively impacting the stock prices of related companies [4]. - Kofsky noted that investor expectations are that results will often meet or exceed the upper limits of projections, particularly for AI infrastructure companies like Nvidia and TSMC [4]. Group 3: Microsoft and Meta's Specific Challenges - For Microsoft, the focus will be on its Azure cloud computing business, which is experiencing strong demand for AI service development and operation [5]. - Azure's revenue is expected to grow by 38% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a 39% increase in the first quarter [5]. - Investors are also interested in the progress of Microsoft's Copilot product, which is a key AI software tool for office workers, although details on its contribution to overall sales growth remain limited [5]. Group 4: Meta's Growth Pressure - Unlike Microsoft, Meta lacks a cloud computing business and relies on AI to enhance advertising targeting and user engagement on its social media platforms [6]. - Meta faces significant pressure to demonstrate how its AI spending translates into growth, especially after a previous drop in stock price following its commitment to increased capital expenditures without clear return timelines [6]. - Market expectations for Meta's fourth-quarter revenue are optimistic, projecting a 21% increase to $58.4 billion, with earnings per share expected to rise by 2.1% to $8.19 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The earnings season for major U.S. tech companies, including Microsoft, Meta, and Google, has reached its peak, with Microsoft reporting strong revenue and net profit growth, but facing concerns over Azure's growth and high AI-related expenses [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $77.7 billion, an 18% increase year-over-year, exceeding market expectations of $75.6 billion [8]. - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.72, up approximately 13% year-over-year, also surpassing the expected $3.68 [8]. - The company's total capital expenditures surged to nearly $35 billion, a 74.5% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding Wall Street's forecast of $30.06 billion [16]. Business Segments - Microsoft's commercial cloud revenue, which includes Office and Azure, reached $49.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 26%, above the expected $48.6 billion [11]. - The intelligent cloud segment, including Azure, generated $30.9 billion, growing approximately 28% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated $30.2 billion [12]. - Azure's revenue grew by 39%, matching the growth rate of the previous quarter and exceeding the general market expectation of 37% [13]. - The productivity and business processes segment, which includes Microsoft 365 Copilot AI tools, reported $33.02 billion in revenue, a 17% year-over-year increase, above the expected $32.29 billion [14]. AI Investments - Microsoft is heavily investing in AI, with significant capital expenditures directed towards AI infrastructure, including GPU and CPU procurement to support Azure's growing demand [17]. - The company has committed a total of $13 billion to OpenAI, with $11.6 billion already funded, and the investment is currently valued at approximately $135 billion [19][20]. - Recent agreements with OpenAI, including a $250 billion commitment for Azure services, are expected to enhance Azure's growth prospects significantly [21].

Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim upgraded Microsoft's stock rating from "Hold" to "Buy," reflecting a strong consensus among Wall Street analysts regarding the company's potential in the AI sector [1][2] Group 1: Analyst Ratings - Following the upgrade, nearly 99% of Wall Street analysts now give Microsoft a "Buy" rating, with only one analyst maintaining a "Neutral" stance and no sell recommendations [1] - Guggenheim's target price for Microsoft is set at $586, indicating approximately a 12% upside from the latest closing price [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - The upgrade highlights optimistic market expectations for Microsoft's ability to capitalize on AI breakthroughs, with analysts noting that the company is positioned among the beneficiaries in the AI landscape [1] - Microsoft's stock rose by 1.41% in pre-market trading, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 24%, which outpaces the Nasdaq 100 index's rise of about 21% [1] Group 3: Business Strengths - Microsoft's Azure cloud computing business is expected to benefit from AI advancements, while the company maintains a near-monopoly in the productivity suite market with its Office products [1] - The integration of AI services, such as Copilot, with the Office suite is anticipated to continue driving profitability for Microsoft [1]