传音控股 20250612 摘要 传音控股新品发布预计显著拉动出货量，尤其在二三季度，高端 Techno 系列销售良好，并引入 AI 技术提升竞争力，有望验证一季度渠 道去库存效果。 非洲市场虽重要但占比不到 40%，智能手机渗透率低，中期成长潜力大。 网络结构以 3G 为主，但资费下降和基础设施改善有望推动未来发展， 传音已布局 Boomplay APP 和电子支付等业务。 新兴市场需求受美元指数和成本影响，2022-2023 年受美元加息冲击 显著下滑。传音以美元为基础定价，汇率波动影响购买力，美元走弱则 对需求有支撑。 2023 年粮食价格上涨和存储成本压力影响传音业绩，但 2025 年原材 料价格压力不大，高通专利费影响可控，收入增加将加速利润修复。 传音在非洲市场优势在于渠道、产品设计和供应链本地化，提供高性价 比产品。快周转模式和贴合当地需求的产品设计使其保持竞争优势。 新兴市场人口结构年轻，长期购买力强劲，是全球为数不多的增长型区 域。研发投入稳步增长，销售费用较高，但随着收入增加，利润增速将 显著提升。 传音通过供应链和产品设计本地化提升性价比，如针对黑人拍照和印尼 电竞环境进行专门开发。移动 ...

Group 1 - The global smartphone market saw a 3% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q1 2025, with "second" overseas expansion becoming essential for many brands, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] - Transsion Holdings has maintained rapid growth, with over 200 million units shipped, ranking among the top three globally, and has been the largest smartphone supplier in Africa since 2017 [1][2] - Transsion's strategy focuses on "global localization," effectively covering a market of 4 billion people across Asia, Africa, and Latin America [1] Group 2 - Transsion has a strong presence in Africa, with a 51% market share in smartphone shipments in 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [2][3] - The company has built a robust local sales and service network, ensuring quick market response and customer support through its independent after-sales brand, Carlcare [2] - Transsion's localized product development, tailored to African consumers' preferences, has solidified its market dominance [2][4] Group 3 - In 2024, Transsion achieved a 16% market share in Southeast Asia, with significant performance in the Philippines and Indonesia, driven by its Infinix brand targeting the gaming smartphone segment [5][7] - The company recorded a 40% growth rate in the Latin American smartphone market, securing the fourth position with shipments reaching 12.8 million units [7] - In the Middle East, Transsion ranked second in smartphone shipments with a 17% market share, growing by 9% year-on-year [7] Group 4 - Transsion's total revenue for 2024 reached 68.715 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 10%, despite fluctuations in Q1 2025 due to high base effects and inventory adjustments [8] - The company has increased its R&D investment by 11.55% in 2024, focusing on core capabilities in imaging, AI, charging, and user experience [8][10] - Transsion's technological innovations, such as full-skin tone imaging and AI video editing, cater to diverse user needs in emerging markets [10] Group 5 - Transsion's multi-brand strategy, with TECNO, Infinix, and itel targeting different market segments, allows it to navigate industry cycles and capture structural opportunities [11][12] - The company has integrated mobile internet services with hardware, creating a localized content ecosystem, exemplified by its music streaming service Boomplay, which has over 94 million monthly active users [12] - Transsion's expansion into AI and smart hardware, including TWS earbuds and AI services, further enhances its market position and user engagement [13][15] Group 6 - Transsion's approach emphasizes deep market understanding and localized strategies, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem that includes smartphones, internet services, and smart devices [17] - The company's success is attributed to its ability to adapt technology to meet local demands, reinforcing its competitive edge in emerging markets [17]

当下，传音控股的本地化模式正在全球新兴市场复制。以东南亚市场为例，印度尼西亚、菲律宾等国都 是人口大国，城镇化和工业化进程逐年加快，参加工作的年轻人很多，他们热爱探索、喜欢科技创新， 闲暇时间喜欢玩手机游戏，需求很大。传音控股旗下手机品牌Infinix深入洞察当地消费者的偏好和流行 趋势，将这些因素融入产品设计中。 本报讯(记者李昱丞)近日，深圳传音控股股份有限公司(以下简称"传音控股")发布2025年一季报，营业 收入同比有所下降。 对此，华源证券分析，公司持续推进去库存。截至2025年一季度末，公司存货已经下降至83.43亿元， 相比2024年三季度末的112.37亿元下滑明显，表明公司已经完成了去库存，后续伴随新机型集中发布并 进入市场，公司有望迎来经营拐点。 同时，传音控股在非洲以外的新兴市场增长势能不减，其在东南亚、南亚、中东、拉美等新兴市场的本 地化布局正悄然打开新的增长空间，未来有望进一步提升盈利能力。 当全球手机厂商还在用参数内卷时，传音控股用十几年的时间将"本地化"淬炼成商业基因。公司早期切 中非洲用户痛点，应用低成本高压快充技术、超长待机、防汗液USB端口等，此后开发深肤色影像技 术、流量 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 姚丹丹 | S0350524060002 | | | | | yaodd@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 李晓康 | S0350124080022 | | | | lixk02@ghzq.com.cn | | [Table_Title] 手机业务积极拓展新兴市场，扩品类和移动互联 未来可期 ——传音控股（688036）2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2025/04/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 传音控股 | | -17.2% | -24.4% | -25.5% | | 沪深 300 | | -3.6% | -1.1% | 4.2% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 75.87 | | 周价格 ...

事项： 公司发布2024 年度报告： 1）2024 全年营收687.15 亿元（YoY+10.31%），归母净利润55.49 亿元（YoY+0.21%），扣非归母净利 45.41 亿元（YoY-11.54%）； 2）24Q4 营收174.63 亿（YoY-9.39%，QoQ+4.61%），归母净利润16.45 亿元（YoY-0.44%， QoQ+56.50%），扣非后归母净利润12.93 亿元（YoY-20.39%，QoQ+57.70%）。 评论： 手机业务稳健拓展，中高端产品持续突破。2024 年公司手机业务实现营业收入631.97 亿元，同比增长 10.20%，主要系持续开拓新兴市场及推进产品升级，整体出货量有所增加。2024 年，公司手机整体出 货量约2.01 亿部。根据 IDC数据统计，2024 年公司在全球手机市场的占有率14.0%，在全球手机品牌厂 商中排名第三，其中智能机在全球智能机市场的占有率为8.7%，排名第四。 分区域来看，2024 年公司非洲智能机市场的占有率超过40%，非洲排名第一。 在南亚市场：巴基斯坦智能机市场占有率超过40%，排名第一；孟加拉国智能机市场占有率29.2%，排 名第 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 100.64 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 83.65 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in the smartphone market, with a focus on high-end products and expansion into emerging markets. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 687.15 billion CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.31% [3][7]. - The company aims to diversify its business by expanding into digital accessories and home appliances, leveraging its established presence in emerging markets [3]. - The TECNO AI ecosystem is being developed to enhance user experience through advanced technology, including AI-driven features in imaging and charging [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 687.15 billion CNY, with a net profit of 55.49 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.21% year-over-year [3][7]. - The smartphone business generated 631.97 billion CNY in revenue, marking a 10.20% increase, with a total shipment of approximately 201 million units [3]. - The company holds a 14.0% share of the global smartphone market, ranking third among manufacturers, and leads the African smartphone market with over 40% share [3]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 63.74 billion CNY, 73.97 billion CNY, and 84.69 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth outlook [3][7]. - Revenue growth is expected to continue, with projected increases of 13.5% in 2025 and 12.7% in 2026 [7].

Core Insights - Transsion Holdings achieved a record high of 201 million mobile phone shipments in 2024, becoming the first Chinese smartphone manufacturer to surpass the 200 million mark in annual shipments [1] - The company's global market share rose to 14%, maintaining its position as the third-largest smartphone manufacturer globally for five consecutive years, despite a 3.2% decline in the global smartphone market [1] - The primary growth driver remains the African market, where smartphone market share exceeds 40% and feature phone market share is over 78% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 10.31% year-on-year to 68.715 billion yuan, but non-net profit decreased by 11.54% to 4.541 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin drop from 9.8% in 2020 to 6.6% [2] - Supply chain costs surged, with 4G chip procurement prices rising by 22% and DRAM memory prices increasing by 18%, leading to a 3.2 percentage point decline in gross margin to 21.3% [2] - Currency depreciation in emerging markets, such as a 35% devaluation of the Nigerian Naira and a 28% devaluation of the Ethiopian Birr, resulted in exchange losses of 820 million yuan, equivalent to 14.8% of net profit [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Increased competition led to a price war, with Xiaomi's quarterly shipments in Africa growing by 22% and realme's by 70%, causing Transsion's fourth-quarter shipments in Africa to grow only by 1%, reducing market share from 51% to 49% [2] - Inventory pressure rose, with inventory amounts climbing to 15.3 billion yuan, a 29% year-on-year increase, and inventory turnover days extending to 107 days [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Transsion is pursuing a strategic transformation to break through profitability constraints by entering the mid-to-high-end market with the Tecno Phantom X3 series priced above $400 [3] - The company is expanding its AIoT ecosystem, with its digital accessory brand oraimo ranking 81st in Africa's top 100 brands, and expanding its smart home product line to 32 SKUs, although this segment still accounts for less than 5% of total revenue [3] - Financial strategies show a dual nature, with a total dividend of 3.421 billion yuan, representing 61.65% of net profit, while capital expenditure was reduced to 1.8 billion yuan, a 12% decrease year-on-year [3] Group 4: Industry Challenges - Analysts highlight three critical challenges for Transsion: competing against localized offerings from Xiaomi in Africa, facing low-cost Samsung A-series models in Asia, and achieving a 15% share of 5G models by 2025, up from less than 5% currently [4]