《寻路集》 周其仁 著 中信出版集团 2025年9月版 ◎庞 溟 《寻路集》是周其仁教授近年来在各地的调研记录、演讲与思考的合集。书名中的"寻路"二字，恰如其 分地映照出当前的发展阶段：无论是全球格局的演变与技术革新，还是企业自身的成长路径，都处在一 个需要重新探索、重新定位的关键时期。但过去的经验和路径已难以简单复制，既有的教科书更不足以 提供现成的导航。新的路，从不在纸面推演，而是在摸索、碰撞与坚持中走出来的。 提出好问题：回归实践的方法论 面对百年未有之大变局，作者没有坐在书斋里臆测未来，而是背起行囊，走进佛山的工厂，飞往东南亚 的园区，深入中东和北欧，去寻找那些在真实世界里发生的微小而深刻的变化。 "寻路"的"路"，既是经济发展的道路，也是认识世界的路径。在全书开篇，作者指出，求知的重点不在 于记住答案，而在于学会发问。特别是在充满变数的真实世界里，记住现成的答案往往无济于事，因为 旧的答案对应的是旧的约束条件，唯有提出好的问题，才能在混沌中找到新的向导。 这种对"真问题"的追寻，体现在作者一贯的调研风格中。他表示自己并无特殊诀窍，就是"跟着一家家 企业去看"，不预设题目，不先入为主。他相信：只要是真 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The overseas business segments of major Chinese internet companies have become "profit dark horses," with Alibaba's international digital commerce turning profitable, Meituan's Keeta achieving monthly profitability in Hong Kong, and Tencent's overseas gaming revenue surging by 43% year-on-year [1] - As domestic internet traffic growth reaches diminishing returns, going overseas has become a necessary strategy for companies, evolving from "go overseas or go home" to "no core capabilities, no overseas expansion" [1] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce - Alibaba's international retail business reported revenue of 28.068 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by growth from AliExpress and other international operations [2] - The international wholesale business generated 6.731 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year, attributed to growth in value-added services related to cross-border business [2] - Temu's gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is primarily due to rapid penetration in the European (30-40% share, 60-70% year-on-year growth) and Latin American markets (over 15% share), while growth in North America is slowing [2][3] Group 3: Local Lifestyle Services - Meituan's Keeta achieved its first monthly profitability in Hong Kong, marking a significant milestone in its overseas expansion [4] - Keeta is expanding in the Middle East and Brazil, utilizing AI algorithms and big data to optimize delivery routes and improve efficiency [4][5] - The competitive landscape in Brazil is intense, with Didi and Uber also expanding their food delivery services, indicating a battle for market share [6] Group 4: Entertainment Sector - Tencent's international gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 43% year-on-year increase, driven by successful titles like "Clash Royale" and "PUBG MOBILE" [7] - NetEase's overseas strategy is undergoing significant adjustments, with the closure of several overseas studios despite some successful game launches [8] Group 5: Mobile Phones - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue declined by 3.1% year-on-year to 46 billion yuan, attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) [9] - Xiaomi's overseas internet service revenue reached a record high of 3.3 billion yuan, growing by 19.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the share of high-margin overseas market revenue [10] - The competition in the African market between Xiaomi and Transsion is intensifying, leading to price wars [10] Group 6: Conclusion - The third-quarter financial reports indicate a shift in Chinese internet companies' overseas strategies, moving from reliance on policy advantages and low prices to focusing on supply chain capabilities, AI technology, localization, and compliance management [12] - The transformation represents an upgrade from being participants in the global value chain to integrators, with challenges such as geopolitical compliance risks and cultural differences remaining significant [13]

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of African Mobile Phones," has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amid performance fluctuations and the need for new growth avenues, following its 2019 listing on the STAR Market in China [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, mobile revenue is expected to decline by 18.4% year-on-year to 26.093 billion yuan, with a gross margin dropping to 19.0% [2] - Revenue for the first three quarters decreased by 3.33% to 49.543 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders plummeted by 44.97% [2] - Despite a 22.6% year-on-year revenue surge in the third quarter, net profit still fell by 11.06% [2] - As of December 8, 2023, Transsion's A-share market capitalization is approximately 80 billion yuan [2] Market Position and Competition - Transsion's mobile phone shipments are projected to reach 201 million units in 2024, marking a historical high, with a global market share ranking third for five consecutive years [5] - In the African market, Transsion holds a 51% market share as of the third quarter of 2025, but its growth rate has slowed to 25% compared to competitors like Xiaomi and Honor, which have seen growth rates of 34% and 158%, respectively [6] - The competitive landscape in Africa has intensified, with rivals moving into the mid-range market segment, diminishing Transsion's previous advantages [6] Strategic Initiatives - Transsion is pursuing a dual listing to enhance its capital operations and expand into Southeast Asia and the "Belt and Road" markets [7] - The company is diversifying its business into energy storage, new energy vehicles, and smart home appliances, with significant R&D investments of 2.139 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 17.26% increase [7] - The company aims to establish a dual-brand strategy in the energy storage sector and has launched personal and commercial electric vehicle brands [7] Transition Challenges - The mobile business still accounts for over 90% of revenue, and new business lines have yet to achieve scale [8] - Short-term efficiency improvements in the mobile segment through AI are unlikely, and the transition to new business areas will take time [8] - The upcoming IPO is seen as a means to raise funds and signal confidence in the company's transformation efforts [8]

这篇经济评论分析中国品牌闯世界：2025年，咱们靠这三招赢在海外，中国品牌正以科技、制造、消费的立体矩阵重塑全球市场：华为支撑全球半数信息传 输，比亚迪电动车领跑欧洲，Shein用超快供应链征服Z世代，中国品牌正在一步步征服世界。 老干妈曾经在欧美闹过笑话，直接拿着国内爆款去卖，结果老外对着玻璃瓶束手无策——他们习惯用挤压瓶！ 后来有当地超市推出"老干妈风味酱"，改用挤压包装，销量立马翻倍，这个案例被《华尔街日报》报道后，给所有出海企业敲响警钟：连包装瓶都得跟着用 户习惯走。 产品创新：别自嗨，要解决真问题 2025年的全球市场，对中国品牌来说就像个充满诱惑的超级游乐园，大门越开越大，但玩法彻底变了。 以前靠着"性价比"打天下的日子一去不复返，现在得拿出真本事——用实实在在的创新，让海外消费者心甘情愿说"真香"！ 亚马逊全球开店这类平台给我们铺好了路，但路上跑什么车、怎么跑，得看各家的真功夫，产品不够硬，故事不会讲，就算上了高速也只能看别人绝尘而 去。 这已经不是选择题，而是一道生存题，创新最怕什么？关起门来自嗨，你觉得"这个功能超酷"，用户却一脸懵："这玩意有啥用？"真正的创新，得扎进目标 用户的生活里，找 ...

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of Mobile Phones in Africa," is seeking to shed this label by diversifying its business and pursuing a Hong Kong IPO to enhance its growth prospects [2][12]. Group 1: Company Overview - Transsion Holdings has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. - The company has established a strong market presence in Africa, leveraging hardware designs suited for local conditions and camera algorithms optimized for darker skin tones [2][7]. - In Q3, Transsion's global smartphone shipments reached 28.6 million units, ranking fourth globally with a year-on-year growth of 12% [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite its market success, Transsion faces increasing pressure on its financial performance, with a 3.33% year-on-year decline in revenue to CNY 49.54 billion in the first three quarters of the year [6]. - The company's net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 44.97% and 46.71% respectively, indicating significant profitability challenges [6]. - The stock price has dropped 30% since reaching a peak of CNY 104.9 in September, closing at CNY 68.62 on December 3 [2][3]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Rising storage product prices and increased competition from domestic manufacturers targeting emerging markets are significant challenges for Transsion [2][6]. - Competitors like Xiaomi, Honor, and OPPO are rapidly expanding in the African market, with Xiaomi's shipments growing by 34% year-on-year [7][8]. - The global storage chip price surge is expected to continue until 2026, further squeezing Transsion's profit margins, as storage components account for 15%-25% of costs in mid-range smartphones [6][8]. Group 4: New Growth Areas - Transsion is actively exploring new growth avenues, including energy storage and electric two-wheeled vehicles, with IoT products and other revenues reaching CNY 2.568 billion, accounting for 8.8% of total revenue [4][10]. - The company has launched energy storage products under the DYQUE Energy brand, targeting both high-end and budget markets [10][12]. - The REVOO brand for electric two-wheeled vehicles was established in 2022, with plans for expansion into South Asia and Latin America [13].

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of African Mobile Phones," is seeking to shed this label by applying for an H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to diversify its revenue streams beyond mobile phones [1]. Group 1: Market Position and Performance - Transsion Holdings has achieved a global smartphone shipment of 28.6 million units in Q3, ranking fourth globally with a year-on-year growth of 12% [1]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of this year was 49.543 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.33% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 44.97% [6]. - The stock price of Transsion Holdings has fallen by 30% since reaching a peak of 104.9 yuan in September, closing at 68.62 yuan on December 3 [3][1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Domestic smartphone manufacturers are increasingly targeting emerging markets, intensifying competition for Transsion [6]. - Xiaomi, Honor, and OPPO are notable competitors, with Xiaomi's market share in Africa growing by 34% year-on-year, while Honor's shipments increased by 158% [6][7]. - Omdia forecasts a 6% decline in the African smartphone market by 2026 due to rising BOM costs and supply chain pressures [7]. Group 3: New Growth Areas - Transsion is exploring new growth avenues, including energy storage and electric two-wheeled vehicles, with IoT products and other revenues reaching 2.568 billion yuan, accounting for 8.8% of total revenue [4][11]. - The company has launched energy storage products under the DYQUE Energy brand, targeting both high-end and budget markets [9][11]. - The REVOO brand for electric two-wheeled vehicles was established in 2022, with plans for expansion into South Asia and Latin America [12].

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of African Mobile Phones," has initiated the process for a secondary listing in Hong Kong after facing significant challenges, including a 44.97% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Transsion Holdings reported revenue of 49.543 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.148 billion yuan, down 44.97% [2]. - The company's performance has been declining since the third quarter of 2024, with the 2025 half-year report showing revenue of 29.077 billion yuan, a 15.86% drop, and a net profit of 1.213 billion yuan, down 57.48% [2]. - The stock price has significantly decreased, with a market capitalization of 75.8 billion yuan as of November 12, 2025, compared to a peak of nearly 200 billion yuan [2]. Market Position and Competition - Transsion Holdings has seen its market share in Africa decline from 52% to 47% in the first quarter of 2025, with a shipment drop to 9 million units, making it the only brand among the top five to experience a decline [5]. - The company's revenue in Africa for 2024 was 22.719 billion yuan, with a gross margin decrease to 28.59% [5]. - Competitors like Xiaomi and Honor are intensifying competition, with Xiaomi targeting the low-end market and Honor focusing on high-end products [5]. Supply Chain Challenges - Rising supply chain costs, particularly in the storage chip market, have significantly impacted Transsion's profitability [6]. - The price of DRAM has surged, with a reported increase of over 75% year-on-year for the fourth quarter of 2025, affecting the cost structure of Transsion's products [6]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract declining growth, Transsion is focusing on AI technology and has invested in developing various AI applications and features for its products [7]. - The company is also diversifying its business model by expanding into home appliances, accessories, and mobile internet services in emerging markets [8]. - Transsion's upcoming Hong Kong listing aims to enhance its international brand image and secure funding for AI research and international marketing efforts [9].

Group 1 - General Motors has ordered thousands of suppliers to eliminate Chinese components from their supply chains, aiming to complete this by 2027 [5][6] - Alibaba has secretly launched the "Qianwen" project to develop a personal AI assistant app, competing directly with ChatGPT [8] - Apple has reached an agreement with Tencent to take a 15% commission from WeChat mini-games, potentially earning 9 billion yuan annually [9][10] - Domestic GPU company Muxi has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 3.904 billion yuan [10][11] - Tencent reported a Q3 profit of 63.13 billion yuan, with employee numbers exceeding 115,000 [15][16] Group 2 - Faraday Future announced it will adopt Tesla's NACS charging standard for its future models, allowing access to over 28,000 Tesla Superchargers [13][14] - Transsion Holdings plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, despite a 3.33% revenue decline in the first three quarters of the year [15] - The Ministry of Public Security in China is proposing new safety standards for vehicles, including limiting acceleration to under 5 seconds [19][20] - The Chinese government is mandating the use of domestic AI chips in cloud services, prioritizing Huawei's Ascend series [24][25] - Baidu's CEO stated that the majority of search results are now generated by AI, with a significant increase in rich media content [26] Group 3 - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella revealed that the company has access to all research data from OpenAI's chip development [33][34] - Synopsys announced a layoff of about 2,000 employees as part of a restructuring plan to focus on AI chip design [35][36] - AMD's CEO Lisa Su expressed confidence in the company's growth, aiming to capture a significant share of the AI market currently dominated by NVIDIA [42][43] - Toyota plans to invest up to $10 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, marking a significant increase in its historical investment [45][46]

Demand Side Adaptation - Technical products must obtain core certifications and optimize functionalities based on local infrastructure and user habits[3] - Consumer products should prioritize cultural resonance, creating products that align with local aesthetic preferences rather than merely expanding sales channels[3] Supply Side Considerations - Companies must balance cost and compliance, addressing not only visible challenges like exchange rates and logistics but also the critical details of overseas policy compliance[3] - The new EU battery carbon footprint regulations present significant challenges for Chinese battery manufacturers entering the European market[3][24] Market Entry Strategy - Successful overseas expansion requires moving beyond "copy-paste" strategies to develop localized business models across compliance, supply chains, sales channels, and cultural integration[10] - Companies should focus on building efficient and stable local operational systems to meet both rigid and flexible market demands[11] Risk Factors - Uncertainties in overseas policies and compliance can hinder the pace and depth of market entry, potentially impacting performance[5] - Exchange rate fluctuations may lead to currency losses, affecting overall profitability[37] Case Studies - Transsion Holdings tailored its products for the African market by developing features like skin tone imaging technology and local language voice recognition systems[13] - Pop Mart's overseas strategy involves integrating its IP with local narratives and establishing flagship stores in major cities to enhance brand presence[18]

Core Insights - Chinese smartphone brands have gained significant market share in Indonesia, with four out of the top five brands being Chinese, accounting for nearly 70% of the market [1] Group 1: Market Presence and Strategy - Vivo has established a strong presence in Indonesia with nearly 50 million users and has built approximately 14,000 sales and service points, along with nearly 130 after-sales service centers [2] - The company has implemented various customer service initiatives, such as a one-hour quick repair service and free screen replacements, to enhance customer satisfaction [2] - Vivo collaborates with local designers to create culturally relevant smartphone models, which have become popular among Indonesian consumers [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Production - Vivo's manufacturing facility in Indonesia features advanced automation, with an average production time of one complete phone every 11.4 seconds and over 50% automation coverage [4] - The factory employs over 200 quality control tests to ensure product reliability, utilizing equipment that simulates Indonesia's high humidity and temperature conditions [5] - The factory has adopted green practices, saving 6,200 tons of water and reducing carbon emissions by approximately 293.73 tons in the past year [5] Group 3: Local Talent Development and Collaboration - Over 96% of Vivo's workforce in Indonesia consists of local talent, with a training system in place that includes on-the-job training and opportunities for advanced studies in China [6] - Vivo has localized its supply chain, achieving a 35% local component sourcing rate, and has created over 1,300 direct jobs in the region [7] - The company's efforts in local production and employment have positively impacted the Indonesian telecommunications industry, fostering resilience and growth [7]