Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract settlement price on the Zhengzhou cotton futures market averaging 14,699 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - The national cotton price B index, representing the inland standard grade cotton market, averaged 15,985 yuan/ton, also up by 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - Internationally, the New York cotton futures main contract averaged 63.58 cents/pound, rising by 1.57 cents/pound or 2.5% from the previous week, while the international cotton index (M) averaged 71.25 cents/pound, translating to an import cost of 12,106 yuan/ton, down by 11 yuan/ton or 0.1% [2] - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has expanded to 3,879 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The macro market is seeing improved expectations for U.S. cotton exports due to tariff agreements with India and Bangladesh, while positive U.S. non-farm employment data may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - The U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Domestic consumer prices are showing a mild recovery, with the core CPI rising by 0.3% in January, the highest in six months, and PPI increasing for four consecutive months [4] - The national cotton sales rate as of February 12 is 67.4%, up 21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a better pre-holiday market situation compared to last year [5] - The overall order volume in the industry is relatively sufficient, with many companies shortening their holiday breaks to quickly resume production after the festival [5][6] Cotton Market Dynamics - The global cotton supply is currently loose in the short term but expected to tighten in the long term, with the USDA's February supply and demand forecast increasing global cotton production by 92,000 tons while reducing consumption by 44,000 tons [5] - The Indian Cotton Association has raised its production forecast for the year to 5.389 million tons, significantly higher than the USDA's recent estimate of 5.117 million tons [5] - Despite a general decline in U.S. cotton exports, the NCC predicts a decrease in U.S. planting area by 3.2% for 2026, which may support cotton prices in the future [5] - Domestic cotton inventory is approximately 894,000 tons, showing a slight increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, while yarn and fabric inventories have decreased, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [6]

【概要】本周，国内棉市在宏观政策支撑下表现出较强韧性，价格保持窄幅震荡；国际市场受贵金属市 场动荡、美元走强等偏空因素影响，棉价连续走弱，内外棉价差继续增大，创近十年新高。 一、价格回顾 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 二、市场形势展望 宏观市场方面，美国政策走向的模糊性持续扰动市场，美印达成新的关税协定影响未来贸易格局走向。 特朗普提名"鹰派"人士凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，虽一度引发市场对政策收紧的担忧，但鉴于沃什 近期展现出对降息的支持态度，且提名尚待参议院最终批准，市场预期已从单向押注转向复杂的博弈局 面。与此同时，尽管参议院两党已就政府拨款法案达成协议，但由于众议院复会时间及两党在移民政策 上的深刻分歧，联邦政府"停摆"的风险警报仍未完全解除。国际贸易关系方面，美国宣布与印度达成贸 易协议，计划将对印度商品关税从50%大幅降至18%，印度也将逐步取消对美国相关壁垒。若协议最终 实施，不仅将直接有利于美棉对印度的出口，且可能在未来与印度-欧盟自贸协定形成合力，在中长期 系统性增强印度纺织业竞争力，加快全球供应链格局重塑。国内政策环境保持稳健积极，为产业与内需 市场提供清晰支撑。2026年中央一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are supported by a warm macro atmosphere and quick spot sales, while international cotton prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. cotton export contracts, leading to a continued weak oscillation pattern [1][2]. Price Review - Domestic cotton supply is abundant, with spot sales increasing, resulting in a slight rise in cotton prices. The main contract price for Zhengzhou cotton futures averaged 14,726 CNY/ton, up 130 CNY/ton (0.9%) from the previous week. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,947 CNY/ton, up 121 CNY/ton (0.8%) [2]. - Internationally, geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in market sentiment, with the main contract price for New York cotton futures averaging 63.44 cents/pound, down 0.64 cents/pound (1.0%) from the previous week. The international cotton index (M) averaged 72.36 cents/pound, with an import cost of 12,394 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton (0.2%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 3,553 CNY/ton, an increase of 147 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Yarn prices continue to rise, with domestic yarn prices stronger than imported yarn. The average price for domestic C32S yarn is 21,376 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton (0.3%), while the average price for imported C32S yarn is 20,980 CNY/ton, up 48 CNY/ton (0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices increased by 195 CNY/ton to 6,696 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The macro market shows weak expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions affecting market sentiment. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% since January, reducing expectations for immediate rate cuts [4]. - Domestic policies aimed at boosting service consumption and improving industrial profits are expected to support economic expectations. The State Council has issued a plan to stimulate service consumption, and industrial profits have shown positive growth for the first time in four years [4]. - The cotton market is experiencing tightening international supply and resilient consumption demand. Brazilian cotton exports have significantly slowed, and Australian cotton production is expected to decline due to irrigation water shortages. U.S. cotton contract signings have dropped by 51% week-on-week [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with a sales rate of 64.5%, up 22.9 percentage points year-on-year. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market activity is expected to slow down, with companies focusing on recovering payments and clearing inventory [5][6]. Summary - The current cotton market is characterized by domestic fundamentals supporting prices while international macro factors exert pressure. Despite domestic sales and yarn price support, market drivers are expected to weaken as production winds down ahead of the Spring Festival. Short-term cotton prices are anticipated to oscillate within a range, with attention needed on post-holiday textile enterprise resumption, global trade policies, and U.S. planting intentions [6].

一、价格回顾 国内方面，新棉加工、销售加速推进，纺企刚需补库为主，最新发布的11月纺服类内销数据保持增长， 同时本周多部门明确未来将更大力度提振消费，改善消费预期、提振市场信心，推动国内棉价延续涨 势，郑棉最高涨至14100元/吨，达到2025年8月底以来最高水平。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价 13957元/吨，较前周上涨163元/吨，涨幅1.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均 价15081元/吨，较前周上涨121元/吨，涨幅0.8%。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，国内促消费政策继续发力，最新公布的11月纺服内销数据呈稳增态势，提振市场消费信 心，国内棉价延续涨势；受北半球棉花集中供应、美棉出口销售持续疲软等因素影响，外棉价格重心继 续下移，内外棉价差扩大至2021年10月以来最高水平。 宏观方面，美国通胀数据低于预期，增加美联储未来降息概率。美国11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%， 涨幅低于预期的3.1%，受此影响，美股等金融市场普遍上涨。日本央行加息政策落地，市场反应相对 平淡。12月19日日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%，达到30年来新高，这是 ...