Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract settlement price on the Zhengzhou cotton futures market averaging 14,699 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - The national cotton price B index, representing the inland standard grade cotton market, averaged 15,985 yuan/ton, also up by 56 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous week [2] - Internationally, the New York cotton futures main contract averaged 63.58 cents/pound, rising by 1.57 cents/pound or 2.5% from the previous week, while the international cotton index (M) averaged 71.25 cents/pound, translating to an import cost of 12,106 yuan/ton, down by 11 yuan/ton or 0.1% [2] - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has expanded to 3,879 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The macro market is seeing improved expectations for U.S. cotton exports due to tariff agreements with India and Bangladesh, while positive U.S. non-farm employment data may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - The U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Domestic consumer prices are showing a mild recovery, with the core CPI rising by 0.3% in January, the highest in six months, and PPI increasing for four consecutive months [4] - The national cotton sales rate as of February 12 is 67.4%, up 21 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a better pre-holiday market situation compared to last year [5] - The overall order volume in the industry is relatively sufficient, with many companies shortening their holiday breaks to quickly resume production after the festival [5][6] Cotton Market Dynamics - The global cotton supply is currently loose in the short term but expected to tighten in the long term, with the USDA's February supply and demand forecast increasing global cotton production by 92,000 tons while reducing consumption by 44,000 tons [5] - The Indian Cotton Association has raised its production forecast for the year to 5.389 million tons, significantly higher than the USDA's recent estimate of 5.117 million tons [5] - Despite a general decline in U.S. cotton exports, the NCC predicts a decrease in U.S. planting area by 3.2% for 2026, which may support cotton prices in the future [5] - Domestic cotton inventory is approximately 894,000 tons, showing a slight increase both month-on-month and year-on-year, while yarn and fabric inventories have decreased, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic cotton market shows resilience supported by macro policies, while international cotton prices are declining due to various negative factors, leading to an increasing price gap between domestic and international markets, reaching a ten-year high [1] Price Review - Domestic cotton supply is sufficient as new cotton processing nears completion, with prices showing strong resistance to declines, resulting in a narrow fluctuation trend. The main contract settlement price for Zhengzhou cotton futures is 14,643 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton or 0.6% from the previous week. The average price of the national cotton price B index is 15,929 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.1% [2] - Internationally, the market is influenced by macroeconomic turmoil, with the main contract settlement price for New York cotton futures at 62.01 cents/pound, down 1.43 cents/pound or 2.3%. The average price of the international cotton index (M) is 71.31 cents/pound, equivalent to an import cost of 12,117 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton or 2.2% from the previous week. The domestic cotton price is 3,812 yuan/ton higher than the international price, with the price gap expanding by 259 yuan/ton [2] Textile Market - The domestic C32S cotton yarn price averages 21,440 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton or 0.3%, while the average price for imported C32S cotton yarn is 20,917 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Conventional foreign yarn is 523 yuan/ton lower than domestic yarn. Polyester staple fiber prices decreased by 137 yuan/ton to 6,559 yuan/ton [3] Market Outlook - The ambiguity in U.S. policy continues to disrupt the market, with a new trade agreement between the U.S. and India potentially reshaping future trade dynamics. The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has raised concerns about policy tightening, although his recent support for rate cuts has shifted market expectations. The risk of a federal government shutdown remains due to ongoing partisan divisions [4] - The international cotton supply is in a loose structure, with Brazilian cotton exports decreasing by 23.8% year-on-year to 317,000 tons in January. This has led to an increase in U.S. cotton export contracts, with a 23% week-on-week rise to 56,700 tons, primarily from Vietnam, Pakistan, and China [5] - Domestic cotton supply is ample, with a sales rate of 65.7% as of February 5, up 22.5 percentage points year-on-year. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market activity is expected to slow down, with textile companies focusing on inventory digestion and completing existing orders [6]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are supported by a warm macro atmosphere and quick spot sales, while international cotton prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. cotton export contracts, leading to a continued weak oscillation pattern [1][2]. Price Review - Domestic cotton supply is abundant, with spot sales increasing, resulting in a slight rise in cotton prices. The main contract price for Zhengzhou cotton futures averaged 14,726 CNY/ton, up 130 CNY/ton (0.9%) from the previous week. The national cotton price B index averaged 15,947 CNY/ton, up 121 CNY/ton (0.8%) [2]. - Internationally, geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in market sentiment, with the main contract price for New York cotton futures averaging 63.44 cents/pound, down 0.64 cents/pound (1.0%) from the previous week. The international cotton index (M) averaged 72.36 cents/pound, with an import cost of 12,394 CNY/ton, down 26 CNY/ton (0.2%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 3,553 CNY/ton, an increase of 147 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Yarn prices continue to rise, with domestic yarn prices stronger than imported yarn. The average price for domestic C32S yarn is 21,376 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton (0.3%), while the average price for imported C32S yarn is 20,980 CNY/ton, up 48 CNY/ton (0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices increased by 195 CNY/ton to 6,696 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The macro market shows weak expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with ongoing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions affecting market sentiment. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% since January, reducing expectations for immediate rate cuts [4]. - Domestic policies aimed at boosting service consumption and improving industrial profits are expected to support economic expectations. The State Council has issued a plan to stimulate service consumption, and industrial profits have shown positive growth for the first time in four years [4]. - The cotton market is experiencing tightening international supply and resilient consumption demand. Brazilian cotton exports have significantly slowed, and Australian cotton production is expected to decline due to irrigation water shortages. U.S. cotton contract signings have dropped by 51% week-on-week [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with a sales rate of 64.5%, up 22.9 percentage points year-on-year. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, market activity is expected to slow down, with companies focusing on recovering payments and clearing inventory [5][6]. Summary - The current cotton market is characterized by domestic fundamentals supporting prices while international macro factors exert pressure. Despite domestic sales and yarn price support, market drivers are expected to weaken as production winds down ahead of the Spring Festival. Short-term cotton prices are anticipated to oscillate within a range, with attention needed on post-holiday textile enterprise resumption, global trade policies, and U.S. planting intentions [6].

Price Review - Domestic cotton prices continue to rise, with Zheng cotton reaching a peak of 14,100 yuan/ton, the highest since August 2025, and an increase of 163 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous week [2] - The average price of the national cotton price B index is 15,081 yuan/ton, up 121 yuan/ton or 0.8% from the previous week [2] - International cotton prices are under pressure, with the New York cotton futures settling at 63.55 cents/pound, down 0.34 cents/pound or 0.5% from the previous week [2] - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 2,738 yuan/ton, an increase of 162 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] Market Outlook - The U.S. inflation data is lower than expected, increasing the probability of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which positively impacts financial markets [4] - The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have raised China's economic growth forecasts for 2025 to 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively, indicating a stable economic outlook [4] - A joint announcement by three Chinese departments aims to boost consumption through enhanced collaboration between business and financial systems [4] Textile Sector - Domestic and international yarn prices have seen slight increases, with domestic C32S yarn averaging 20,845 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 0.3% [3] - The overall textile industry is currently experiencing weak demand, but future expectations are improving, with 44% of surveyed respondents anticipating a more optimistic outlook in the next six months [5] Domestic Market Conditions - The sales rate of new cotton in China is at 47.3%, an increase of 25 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a steady growth in consumption [6][7] - Despite a slight decrease in operating rates, they remain above last year's levels, supporting strong cotton consumption [7] - The domestic textile and apparel sales reached 154.16 billion yuan in November, the highest this year, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7]