一、价格回顾 国内方面，新棉加工、销售加速推进，纺企刚需补库为主，最新发布的11月纺服类内销数据保持增长， 同时本周多部门明确未来将更大力度提振消费，改善消费预期、提振市场信心，推动国内棉价延续涨 势，郑棉最高涨至14100元/吨，达到2025年8月底以来最高水平。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价 13957元/吨，较前周上涨163元/吨，涨幅1.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均 价15081元/吨，较前周上涨121元/吨，涨幅0.8%。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，国内促消费政策继续发力，最新公布的11月纺服内销数据呈稳增态势，提振市场消费信 心，国内棉价延续涨势；受北半球棉花集中供应、美棉出口销售持续疲软等因素影响，外棉价格重心继 续下移，内外棉价差扩大至2021年10月以来最高水平。 宏观方面，美国通胀数据低于预期，增加美联储未来降息概率。美国11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%， 涨幅低于预期的3.1%，受此影响，美股等金融市场普遍上涨。日本央行加息政策落地，市场反应相对 平淡。12月19日日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%，达到30年来新高，这是 ...

Group 1: Space and Technology - SpaceX is preparing for an IPO in 2026, targeting to raise over $30 billion with a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, which has positively impacted peers like EchoStar and Rocket Lab [2] - Tencent has invested in RNA innovative drug development company Hongxin Biotechnology, expanding its portfolio in the biotech sector [8] Group 2: Financial and Economic Developments - Amazon has reached an agreement with the Italian tax authorities to pay a total of €723 million, which includes a settlement of €511 million and an additional payment of €212 million [3] - The U.S. government reported a budget deficit of $173 billion for November, with total expenditures of $509 billion, lower than the previous year's $669 billion [4] - The World Bank has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [9] - A total of 3,762 A-share listed companies in China have distributed dividends amounting to ¥2.46 trillion this year, with projections indicating that the total could exceed ¥2.6 trillion for the first time [11] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - Omdia's research indicates that the Indian PC market (excluding tablets) reached a record high in Q3 2025, with shipments of 4.9 million units, a 13% year-on-year increase [5] - The real estate company Evergrande has reported new enforcement information totaling over ¥3.57 billion, with ongoing legal challenges and a total of over ¥71.5 billion in outstanding enforcement amounts [6] - Adobe has projected first-quarter revenues of $6.25 billion to $6.3 billion for the upcoming year, with total revenue expectations for fiscal year 2026 between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion [13] Group 4: Financial Services and Investment - Several wealth management companies are expanding their distribution networks to include small and medium-sized banks in county areas, indicating a trend towards market penetration in lower-tier cities [12] - Guoyi Quantum Technology's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise ¥1.169 billion for projects related to high-end scientific instruments and quantum technology [10] Group 5: Robotics and Innovation - Instech has reported progress in its robotics-related business, with some products achieving small-scale deliveries and ongoing collaborations with motor manufacturers for future market expansion [7]

点评：世界银行上调中国2025年经济增速预期，充分体现了国际社会对中国经济长期增长潜力的积极预 期。通过多元化出口市场和内需拉动，中国在全球经济不确定背景下显示出强劲的韧性。 | 2025年12月12日 星期五 | NO.1中央经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。要增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。将各类经济 政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。健全预期管理机制，提振社会 信心。 NO.2央行开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作 12月11日，央行公开市场开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日有 1808亿元逆回购到期。 点评：央行开展1186亿元7天期逆回购操作的决定，显示了在流动性管理方面的精准 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of zinc and nickel, which fell by 0.3% and 0.91% respectively. Tin led the gains with a rise of 1.02%, while copper increased by 0.8% [1] - Aluminum oxide futures dropped by 1.4%, reaching a historical low of 2462 yuan/ton, while casting aluminum futures rose by 0.36% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 3.97%, polysilicon futures increased by 1.32%, and industrial silicon futures rose by 0.06% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore, rebar, and hot-rolled coil all fell by over 1%, with iron ore down 1.3% [1] - Internationally, most base metals saw increases, except for nickel, which fell by 0.05% [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:03, COMEX gold rose by 0.32%, while COMEX silver surged by 2.16%, reaching a new high of $63.25/ounce [1] - Domestic gold and silver also saw increases, with Shanghai gold up 0.21% and Shanghai silver up 3.07%, the latter reaching a record of 14665 yuan/kg [1] Macro Environment - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [3] - The World Bank raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, citing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3] - Jilin Province's planning document emphasized the need to manage risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [3] Oil Market - As of 15:03, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% and 0.61% respectively, amid ongoing attention to peace talks in Ukraine [5] - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased [5]

来源新华社 （文章来源：国际金融报） 国际货币基金组织（IMF）12月10日在京表示，尽管面临多重冲击，中国经济仍展现出显著韧性。IMF 预计2025年中国经济增速将达5%，较今年10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》上调0.2个百分点。 ...

亚行上调2025年中国经济增速预期 中新网12月10日电 据亚洲开发银行(亚行)官网消息，亚行10日发布的《2025年亚洲发展展望》报告显 示，得益于中国出口的强劲表现和持续的财政刺激政策，亚行决定上调对2025年中国经济增速预期0.1 个百分点。 此外，报告预计，2025年亚太地区发展中经济体增速将达到5.1%，高于9月份预测的4.8%。 亚行首席经济学家朴之水表示，尽管过去一年全球贸易环境充满前所未有的不确定性，但亚太地区稳健 的经济基本面支撑着强劲的出口表现和稳定的增长。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 ...

Core Insights - Uzbekistan is projected to remain among the top five fastest-growing economies in Europe and Central Asia in 2025 and 2026, with growth rates of 6.2% and 6% respectively, an increase from previous forecasts of 5.9% [1][1][1] Economic Growth Projections - Kyrgyzstan is expected to lead the region with growth rates of 9.2% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026 [1] - Tajikistan's growth is forecasted at 7.6% for 2025 and 5.2% for 2026 [1] - Georgia is projected to grow by 7% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026 [1] - Kazakhstan's growth rates are expected to be 5.5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [1] Regional Economic Context - The overall economic growth for Europe and Central Asia is projected to decline to 2.4% in 2025, down from 3.7% in 2024, primarily due to the slowdown in the Russian economy [1] - Average growth for the region is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2026-2027 [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties, tensions in international trade, and persistent inflation pressures are increasing the economic vulnerabilities in the region [1] Central Asia Economic Outlook - The economic growth for Central Asia is anticipated to reach 5.9% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, supported by increased oil production in Kazakhstan and rising foreign exchange reserves and investments in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan [1]

Core Insights - The Central Bank of Ireland has raised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 10.1%, indicating reduced concerns over the impact of tariffs on the Irish economy following a trade agreement between the US and EU [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecast - The Central Bank of Ireland increased its 2025 economic growth forecast from 9.7% to 10.1% due to a more favorable tariff outcome than previously feared [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 was also raised from 2.6% to 3.8% [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Ireland maintains a close economic relationship with the US, serving as a base for many leading US tech and pharmaceutical companies [1] - The trade agreement reached in July set most European goods' tariffs at 15%, which is lower than earlier market concerns [1] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In the first quarter, Irish exports to the US surged as companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of tariffs, a trend that continued into the second quarter [1] - There is uncertainty regarding future export trends, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, as a significant drop in exports was noted in June due to the digestion of previously accumulated inventories [2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The Central Bank warned that while the 15% tariff is unlikely to cause a mass exodus of foreign investment, it may reduce Ireland's attractiveness as a destination for US direct investment [2] - The demand for peptide hormones, crucial for diabetes and obesity treatments, is expected to partially offset the decline in exports, as global demand for these products is rapidly increasing [2] Group 5: Economic Impact on Eurozone - Despite its small size within the Eurozone, Ireland's economic fluctuations have significant spillover effects on the overall Eurozone performance [2] - The European Central Bank noted that Ireland's economic output is expected to decline in the third quarter, which may counterbalance growth in other Eurozone regions [2]

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Central Asia and the Caucasus, increasing the expected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 to 5.5% and 5.1% respectively, driven by anticipated oil production growth and stable domestic demand [1] - Conversely, the ADB has downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region for 2025 and 2026 to 4.7% and 4.6% respectively, citing global trade uncertainties, reduced exports, and weak domestic demand as primary factors [1] - The region is also facing additional risks such as localized armed conflicts and supply chain disruptions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, anticipating that trade competitiveness will support a stronger RMB in the long term [1][2]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, citing resilient service sector output and retail performance, along with a more proactive policy stance to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its economic growth forecasts for China, increasing the growth estimates for the next two years by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, due to reduced urgency for new policies following external shocks [3][4]. - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for China's second quarter from 3.7% to 4.8% and increased the annual GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. Currency Outlook - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB will strengthen against the USD, forecasting an exchange rate of 7.0 by the end of 2025 and 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by improved trade competitiveness [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley also expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB, noting that the RMB depreciated by 11.5% during the 2018-2019 US-China tariff increases, which partially offset the tariff impacts [5][6]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, focusing instead on reserve requirement ratio cuts and liquidity support [7]. - Morgan Stanley expects the government to potentially introduce an additional fiscal stimulus of 500 to 1,000 billion RMB to support infrastructure investments, alongside further interest rate cuts [7].