爱尔兰央行报告显示，今年一季度，美国企业因担忧关税而大规模囤积库存，带动爱尔兰对美出口激 增，这一趋势延续至二季度初，使得央行在短时间内连续两次上调增速预期。该央行将2025年全年经济 增速预测从6月的9.7%进一步上调至10.1%，同时将2026年的增长预期从2.6%调高至3.8%。 尽管如此，风险依然存在。该央行警告，15%的关税水平虽然足够低，不太可能导致现有外资大规模撤 离，但未来爱尔兰对美国企业的投资吸引力可能会减弱。凯利警告，"爱尔兰作为美国对外直接投资出 口平台的吸引力丧失，仍然是中期的一大关键风险。" 当地时间9月18日，爱尔兰央行表示，美国与欧盟就进口商品关税达成协议后，对爱尔兰经济未来增长 的威胁低于此前的担忧程度，因此上调2025年的经济增速预期至10.1%。 爱尔兰与美国保持着紧密的经济关系。作为美国许多领先科技和制药公司的国际基地，爱尔兰同时向美 国大量出口药品和医疗设备。正因如此，美国总统特朗普在过去几个月里不断威胁、宣布并调整一系列 产品的关税时，爱尔兰政策制定者曾深感忧虑。 不过，7月份达成的美欧贸易协议中，大多数欧洲输美商品的关税最终被定为15%。这一结果比年初时 市场担心的 ...

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Central Asia and the Caucasus, increasing the expected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 to 5.5% and 5.1% respectively, driven by anticipated oil production growth and stable domestic demand [1] - Conversely, the ADB has downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region for 2025 and 2026 to 4.7% and 4.6% respectively, citing global trade uncertainties, reduced exports, and weak domestic demand as primary factors [1] - The region is also facing additional risks such as localized armed conflicts and supply chain disruptions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, anticipating that trade competitiveness will support a stronger RMB in the long term [1][2]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, has raised the 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, citing resilient service sector output and retail performance, along with a more proactive policy stance to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its economic growth forecasts for China, increasing the growth estimates for the next two years by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, due to reduced urgency for new policies following external shocks [3][4]. - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for China's second quarter from 3.7% to 4.8% and increased the annual GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting positive developments in US-China trade talks [3]. Currency Outlook - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB will strengthen against the USD, forecasting an exchange rate of 7.0 by the end of 2025 and 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by improved trade competitiveness [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley also expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB, noting that the RMB depreciated by 11.5% during the 2018-2019 US-China tariff increases, which partially offset the tariff impacts [5][6]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, focusing instead on reserve requirement ratio cuts and liquidity support [7]. - Morgan Stanley expects the government to potentially introduce an additional fiscal stimulus of 500 to 1,000 billion RMB to support infrastructure investments, alongside further interest rate cuts [7].