证券研究报告 康诺亚-B (2162 HK) 港股通 销售放量在即，国际化兑现路径清晰 2026 年 3 月 28 日│中国香港 生物医药 3 月 26 日，康诺亚披露 2025 年度业绩，营收 7.16 亿元（+67.3%yoy）， 净亏损和和经调整净亏损分别为 5.23/4.95 亿元，收入/净亏损优于我们预期 的 5.71/6.79 亿元，主因出海品种推进顺利确认多笔里程碑。司普奇拜单抗 25 年销售额 3.15 亿元，考虑其三大适应症纳入医保、价格良好，入院快速 推进，看好 26 年销售额跨越式增长。同时公司全球价值兑现路径进一步明 晰：1）CMG901 2L 胃癌 III 期预计年内报 BLA，阿斯利康已启动全球 1L 胃癌 III 期；2）吉利德收购 Ouro，CM336 全球价值兑现有望加速；3）CM512、 CM518D1 有望 26 年读出多项数据，看好全球竞争力。维持"买入"。 司普奇拜单抗有望迎来 2026 年放量期 我们看好司普奇拜单抗 26 年销售达 7.5 亿元：1）AD、CRSwNP、SAR 三 大适应症均纳入医保，单价 1039 元降幅缓和；其中 AD 较达必妥价格竞争 力强， ...

业绩简评 3 月 26 日公司发布年报，实现收入 7.16 亿元（+67%），其中产品 销售收入（司普奇拜单抗）3.15 亿元，合作收入 4.02 亿元；年内 亏损 5.23 亿元，经调整年内亏损 4.95 亿元；研发投入 7.2 亿元， 截至 25/12/31 在手现金储备 19.6 亿元。 经营分析 司普奇拜单抗于 26 年纳入医保目录，销售放量在即。司普奇拜单 抗目前已经获批的三大适应症（AD、慢性鼻窦炎伴鼻息肉、季节过 敏性鼻炎）均已于 2026 年初正式纳入医保目录，预计在医保身份 +价格优势+独家适应症加持下，26 年有望实现快速增长。其他适 应症持续拓展：青少年 AD 适应症于 26M1 递交 NDA，PN 预计 26H1 递交 NDA，儿童 AD Ⅲ期入组中。 2026 年多管线有望迎来关键催化节点。①CMG901(CLDN18.2 ADC， 已于 23 年对外授权阿斯利康)：预计 26H1 读出Ⅲ期 2L 胃癌数据， 26 年内递交该适应症 NDA，产品上市后有望获得低双位数净销售 额分成；1L 胃癌Ⅲ期、Ⅱ期围手术期胃癌、Ⅱ期胰腺癌等持续拓 展中，1L 胃癌Ⅲ期临床首例患者入组 4500 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the biopharmaceutical and chemical pharmaceutical sectors [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese innovative drug sector is at the beginning of a long cycle, with continuous global output of high-quality assets from Chinese companies. The potential of these assets is not fully reflected in A/H share pricing, leading to a recommendation for the innovative drug sector [1]. - The number and value of business development (BD) deals in the Chinese innovative drug industry have reached record highs in 2023, with 45 BD deals completed (+73% year-on-year) and a total disclosed amount of $57.5 billion (+135% year-on-year) [2]. - The report highlights a significant valuation gap between A/H shares and US stocks for similar innovative drug assets, indicating that A/H shares are systematically undervalued [4]. Summary by Sections Business Development Trends - The report notes that the Chinese innovative drug sector has achieved a global market share of approximately 20% in the number of BD projects and around 75% in the disclosed amount [2]. - There is a high predictability of continued growth in BD activities, driven by increasing interest from multinational corporations (MNCs) and private equity (PE) firms in Chinese assets [2]. Cash Flow Contributions - The report emphasizes that platform companies in China are expected to generate sustainable cash flows through ongoing BD activities, which have not been adequately valued in the market [3]. - It is projected that significant BD deals (with upfront payments exceeding $500 million) will contribute to continuous cash flow growth for companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Shiyao Group, and others [3]. Valuation Comparisons - The report compares the valuations of similar assets in A/H shares and US markets, revealing that Chinese innovative drug companies are undervalued relative to their US counterparts [4][19]. - Specific case studies illustrate the valuation discrepancies, such as between MSD and Kelun Biotech, and Insmed and Haizhi Pharmaceutical, highlighting the potential for significant upside in A/H share valuations [19][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical companies with sustained BD capabilities, including Heng Rui Medicine, Shiyao Group, and others [5]. - Companies that have completed large BD deals are expected to benefit from ongoing milestone cash flows, with specific recommendations for companies like Kelun Biotech and Rongchang Biopharmaceutical [5]. Target Prices and Market Outlook - Target prices for recommended stocks are provided, with specific price targets for companies such as Shiyao Group at HKD 19.25 and Heng Rui Medicine at HKD 98.43, indicating a bullish outlook for these stocks [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous focus on investment opportunities related to AI in healthcare, driven by the growth of Tencent's AI applications and the need for data-driven solutions in medical settings [2][21]. - The investment logic centers around "data closed-loop" and "scene demand," highlighting AI's role as a core productivity driver in healthcare under the dual pressures of cost control and technological advancements [22]. - The report outlines a three-stage clinical value investment strategy, focusing on innovative drug chains and medical devices, with specific recommendations for companies in these sectors [3][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 3.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.39 percentage points and ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [1][15]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index also declined by 2.98%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 4.69 percentage points [1][15]. R&D Progress - Recent developments include new drug applications from companies such as Hengrui Medicine and Innovent Biologics, with ongoing clinical trials for various products [30]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation table for key companies, recommending "Buy" for several firms including Innovent Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Mindray Medical [4][27]. AI Healthcare Investment Focus - The report identifies several core areas for AI in healthcare, including AI drug development, medical imaging, chronic disease management, and surgical robotics, emphasizing the importance of proprietary data and business scenarios for competitive advantage [22][24]. Annual Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the investment focus should increasingly emphasize the clinical value of pharmaceuticals, with a positive outlook on innovative drug chains and high-end medical devices [3][26].

Summary of the Conference Call for 康诺亚 Company Overview - 康诺亚 is a leading company focused on autoimmune diseases, with core products including CM310 (思普曲帕单抗) and the next-generation dual antibody CM512 [2][3]. Key Products and Market Potential - **CM310 (思普曲帕单抗)**: - Recently included in the medical insurance directory, expected to see rapid market growth [2]. - Approved for three indications: adult moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and seasonal allergic rhinitis, with plans to expand to adolescents and children [2][3]. - Clinical trial results show a 52-week EASI75 response rate of 92.5% and EASI90 response rate of 77% in adult atopic dermatitis patients [4]. - In chronic rhinosinusitis, 90% of patients showed at least a 50% reduction in nasal polyps after 52 weeks [5]. - For seasonal allergic rhinitis, approximately 84% of patients experienced relief from nasal symptoms, and 94% from ocular symptoms [6]. - **CM512**: - A next-generation dual antibody targeting TSLP and IL-13, with a half-life of 70 days, allowing for dosing every three months [3][7]. - Phase I data shows EASI75 and EASI90 response rates of 58.3% and 41.7% respectively at 12 weeks, indicating competitive advantages over existing therapies [3][8]. - **CMG901 (Claudin 18.2 ADC)**: - Leading in the development for gastric and pancreatic cancer, with a phase III trial expected to complete by October 2026 [3][9]. - Early data shows a PFS of 4.8 months and OS of 11.8 months, indicating promising market potential [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue for CM310 is projected to grow rapidly, from approximately 300 million RMB in 2025 to about 750 million RMB in 2026 [10]. - Overall revenue estimates for 康诺亚 from 2025 to 2027 are 637 million, 764 million, and 480 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 21%, and 94% respectively [10]. Valuation - Using a DCF model, 康诺亚's valuation is estimated at approximately 24.5 billion RMB, with a target price increase of 82%, leading to a buy rating [11]. Additional Insights - CM310 shows lower relapse rates and better safety and tolerability compared to Sanofi's Dupilumab, with a relapse rate of approximately 0.9% after 52 weeks [4]. - The company is positioned strongly in the market due to its innovative products and competitive advantages over existing therapies [7].

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities initiates coverage on Connora-B (02162) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 82.07, highlighting the rapid growth of the atopic dermatitis drug market in China, driven by core products like Dupilumab and Dupilumab's accelerated market penetration [1] Industry Summary - The atopic dermatitis (AD) drug market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.6% from 2019 to 2024, and an anticipated CAGR of 18.6% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 4.3 billion by 2030 [1] - AD affects up to 20% of children and adolescents and 1-5% of adults globally, with 25% to 30% of patients experiencing moderate to severe symptoms [1] Company Summary - Connora's core product, Dupilumab (Dabizhuo), has become the fourth largest drug globally, with sales in China exceeding CNY 2.5 billion, and projected to grow to over CNY 2.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 33% [1] - The company’s product, Dupilumab (Kangyueda), is in a rapid growth phase, with expected sales of approximately CNY 36 million in 2024 and CNY 170 million in the first half of 2025, driven by increasing medical demand for allergic diseases [2] - CM512, a long-acting TSLP x IL-13 dual antibody developed by Connora, shows promising potential with a half-life of 70 days, allowing for reduced dosing frequency and improved patient compliance [2] Clinical Research Summary - Phase I clinical trials for CM512 in treating adult moderate to severe AD achieved all primary endpoints, with 50% of patients in the 300mg group reaching EASI-75 at week 6, compared to 7% in the placebo group [3] - At week 12, the EASI-75 and EASI-90 response rates for the 300mg dose group were 58.3% and 41.7%, respectively, outperforming existing IL-4Rα monoclonal antibodies and JAK1 inhibitors [3] - Most treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) during the study were mild to moderate, with no reports of serious adverse events leading to treatment delays or study withdrawals [3]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities initiates coverage on Kangnuo Ya-B (02162) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 82.07, highlighting the rapid growth of the atopic dermatitis drug market in China, driven by core products like Dupilumab and Siplizumab [1] Industry Overview - The atopic dermatitis (AD) market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.6% from 2019 to 2024, and an anticipated CAGR of 18.6% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 4.3 billion by 2030 [1] - Globally, AD affects up to 20% of children and adolescents and 1-5% of adults, with 25% to 30% of patients experiencing moderate to severe symptoms [1] Company Insights - Dupilumab (Dabizhuo) is the fourth best-selling drug globally, with sales in China exceeding CNY 2.5 billion, growing at approximately 48% in 2023 and projected to grow by about 33% in 2024 [2] - Siplizumab (Kangyueda) is in a rapid growth phase, with projected sales of approximately CNY 36 million in 2024 and CNY 170 million in the first half of 2025, driven by increasing medical demand for allergic diseases [3] Product Development - CM512, a long-acting TSLP x IL-13 dual antibody developed by Kangnuo Ya, shows promising potential with a half-life of 70 days, allowing for reduced dosing frequency and improved patient compliance [4] - In Phase I clinical trials, CM512 achieved significant efficacy endpoints, with 50% of patients in the 300mg group reaching EASI-75 at week 6, compared to only 7% in the placebo group [4]

Core Viewpoint - 康诺亚-B's CM512, the world's first long-acting TSLP x IL-13 dual blocker for treating moderate to severe atopic dermatitis (AD), has successfully met all endpoints in its Phase I clinical study, indicating strong potential in the market [1] Group 1: Company Developments - 康诺亚-B's stock rose by 4.08% to HKD 59.95, with a trading volume of HKD 31.28 million [1] - The company has reported that CM512's early clinical data shows a significantly better EASI-90 response compared to APOGEE's core asset APG777, while maintaining excellent safety and similar dosing frequency [1] Group 2: Market Context - The long-acting autoimmune treatment sector is currently experiencing significant growth, with APOGEE's market capitalization increasing by over 75% in the last two months, reaching USD 4.3 billion [1] - The commercial sales team for 康诺亚-B is expected to expand to around 400 people by the end of the year, focusing on hospital access and coverage, particularly in key hospitals for AD [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Sales of 康诺亚-B's drug,司普奇拜单抗, are anticipated to see rapid growth by 2026, as the company prioritizes breakthrough scenarios in core hospitals [1] - The company is also considering the potential for limited price reductions for 司普奇拜单抗 due to high negotiation reductions last year and cost pressures [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a pullback last week, but funding pressure is expected to improve marginally due to a rebound in private equity registrations and public fund launches, with private fund registrations rising to 337, exceeding 300 for two consecutive weeks [2][3] - The peak of A-share unlock market value has passed, and the net reduction in industrial capital has shown a marginal decline, indicating a reduction in funding supply pressure [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - In the construction industry, the supply and demand remain weak, with new home transactions showing a decline while second-hand home transactions have slightly increased [2] - The industrial sector shows strong freight volume performance, but production rates are mixed, with some sectors like coking and independent refineries seeing an increase, while the chemical and automotive sectors remain weak [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - In the global gas turbine market, new orders increased by 95% year-on-year to 24GW in Q3 2025, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and AI power demand [5] - The high demand for gas turbines is expected to boost exports for domestic component manufacturers, with companies like Yingliu and Haomai Technology positioned to benefit [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support debt resolution and other initiatives [6][7] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will serve as a key observation point for policy reserves and future deployments [6] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Kangnuo Ya-B (2162 HK) is highlighted for its potential in the global autoimmune pipeline, with a market cap increase of over 75% recently, and promising early clinical data for its CM512 product [9] - Black Sesame Intelligence (2533 HK) is recognized for its advancements in the robotics sector with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, indicating strong growth potential [10]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant clinical advancements in the dual-antibody sector, particularly focusing on the TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody Lunsekimig by Sanofi, which has entered Phase III clinical trials for COPD, with the first patient dosed on September 24 [4][5] - The report emphasizes the potential of dual antibodies in autoimmune diseases, particularly in respiratory conditions like asthma and COPD, indicating a substantial market opportunity [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index level is 8665.0, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6764.34 [1] Clinical Progress Updates - Sanofi's Lunsekimig is in Phase II/III trials for COPD, aiming to enroll 1884 patients to evaluate its efficacy and safety compared to a placebo [4] - The CM512 dual antibody by Connoa shows promising results in atopic dermatitis, with EASI-75 and EASI-90 response rates of 58.3% and 41.7% respectively, compared to 21.4% and 0% in the placebo group [5] Market Activity and Collaborations - The report notes ongoing collaborations, such as the agreement between Qianxin Biotech and Roche for QX031N, which targets both TSLP and IL-33, with an upfront payment of $75 million and potential milestone payments up to $995 million [6] - The report also mentions the presentation of the CS2015 dual-specific antibody by Basestone Pharmaceuticals at the ACAAI conference, showcasing its therapeutic potential [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Connoa, Innovent Biologics, Qianxin Biotech, and Basestone Pharmaceuticals, as dual antibodies are expected to reshape treatment paradigms in autoimmune diseases [7][9]