Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, marking its first rate cut of the year, but concerns over liquidity in the market remain high [2] - The trading volume of September federal funds futures contracts approached 500,000, setting a record since the product was listed in 1988, indicating deep market worries about the deteriorating short-term financing environment at quarter-end [2] - Factors such as the Fed's ongoing balance sheet reduction and a 32% increase in U.S. Treasury issuance since July have exacerbated funding gap risks, leading to a surge in demand for liquidity management across asset classes [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong's crypto market is emerging as a core area for the development of Real World Assets (RWA), characterized by a complete ecosystem involving liquidity providers, technology supporters, and service providers [3] - Collaborations such as HashKey Exchange with GF Token and OSL Exchange with Huaxia Fund are expanding the audience for RWA from institutions to retail investors, showcasing the market's growth potential [3] - The integration of digital asset wallets as a key entry point for users enhances asset flow efficiency and security, contributing to the compliance process in Hong Kong's crypto market [3] Group 3 - Hong Kong's innovative regulatory measures in the crypto space are providing a replicable model globally, with the introduction of the first comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins and differentiated capital requirements for various crypto assets [5] - The balance between innovation and risk control in Hong Kong's regulatory approach resonates with the Federal Reserve's policy logic of stabilizing growth while managing risks [5] Group 4 - The Fed's rate cut has lowered dollar financing costs, leading to a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase in RWA project financing in Hong Kong's crypto market [6] - XBIT Wallet has optimized its services during this period, integrating compliance project information and real-time valuation data in its RWA asset section, enhancing user opportunities [6] - The user asset custody scale of XBIT Wallet increased by 21% quarter-on-quarter, with RWA-related asset holdings rising to 35%, reflecting a significant uptick in investor demand for compliant crypto assets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global stablecoin sector is entering a "window period" with significant regulatory developments, including the signing of the Genius Act by the U.S. government and the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong, which will take effect on August 1 [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. government has recently signed stablecoin-related policies, marking a shift in the regulatory landscape that has previously left stablecoins outside systematic oversight [5]. - The European Commission has passed amendments to the Crypto Asset Market Regulation, further shaping the regulatory environment for stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Citigroup are accelerating their plans for corporate stablecoin issuance, indicating a growing interest in stablecoins as a digital financial infrastructure [1]. - Companies such as Amazon and Walmart are reportedly preparing to launch their own stablecoins, highlighting the trend of large corporations entering the stablecoin market [1]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The core competition in the stablecoin market lies not in which fiat currency they are pegged to, but in the real and credible transaction scenarios that support them [1][2]. - The ability to use stablecoins for purchasing goods, assets, and services will drive their adoption and usage [2]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The Trump administration views stablecoins as a potential solution to the U.S. debt issue, aiming to absorb market dollars or short-term funds to replace traditional debt financing [6]. - Stablecoins could help maintain the global dominance of the U.S. dollar while addressing domestic trade balance and manufacturing concerns, representing a form of institutional innovation [6][9]. Group 5: Risks and Challenges - There is a risk of over-issuance by stablecoin issuers, which could lead to financial instability if not properly regulated [10][11]. - The potential for stablecoins to disrupt monetary sovereignty in smaller economies is a concern, as they may undermine local currency issuance [12]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The future of stablecoins may see increased competition among various issuers, with the focus shifting to who can establish the rules and frameworks governing their use [16]. - Real-world assets (RWA) and real data assets (RDA) are expected to become more prevalent in the stablecoin ecosystem, potentially attracting users for investment purposes [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging competition between the U.S. and China regarding Real World Assets (RWA) and stablecoins, highlighting the significance of the "Genius Act" signed by former President Trump, which aims to solidify the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and regulate the stablecoin market [3][4][32]. Group 1: RWA and Stablecoins - RWA stands for Real World Asset, which refers to the process of tokenizing physical assets like real estate, commodities, and bonds using blockchain technology [13][14]. - The RWA market is projected to reach $16.1 trillion by 2030, accounting for 10% of global GDP, with current RWA assets (excluding stablecoins) amounting to $245.5 billion [18][20]. - The introduction of RWA technology allows for the digitization and fragmentation of physical assets, enhancing liquidity and accessibility for ordinary investors [22][27]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The "Genius Act" marks a significant step in U.S. stablecoin regulation, aiming to maintain the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [7][32]. - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance," effective August 1, represents a competing regulatory framework that could challenge U.S. dominance in the stablecoin space [8][30]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has projected that the stablecoin market could grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030, emphasizing the economic benefits of stablecoins [31][32]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Robinhood's introduction of stock tokenization has garnered attention, but it faces challenges such as liquidity issues and potential market manipulation [17][41]. - Regulatory bodies are scrutinizing Robinhood's practices, raising concerns about the distinction between real equity and derivatives in tokenized stocks [42][46]. - The article warns that while RWA technology offers efficiency, it also opens the door to potential illegal activities due to regulatory gaps [47]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Financial institutions in mainland China are accelerating their efforts to engage with the RWA and stablecoin markets, with many obtaining licenses to provide related services [48]. - The competition between the U.S. and China in the RWA space is intensifying, with the potential for significant shifts in the global financial landscape [50][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, particularly highlighting the potential for valuation increases driven by policy support and favorable mid-year performance [1][2]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a boost due to supportive policies for insurance capital market entry and positive earnings forecasts for brokerages, with an expected year-on-year profit growth of 36% for the first half of 2025 [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the growing involvement of Chinese brokerages in the stablecoin and virtual asset sectors, spurred by recent discussions and policy developments in Shanghai and Hong Kong [2][16]. - Insurance companies are expected to benefit from new long-term investment policies aimed at aligning investment strategies with performance evaluations, which could enhance their market stability and investment returns [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,014.81 with a weekly change of +0.82%, while the non-bank index rose by 3.96% to 1,945.59 [5][11]. - The brokerage sector saw a significant increase of 4.46%, with notable performances from individual stocks such as Zhongyin Securities (+22.56%) and Haitong Securities (+16.36%) [7][14]. Non-Bank Financial News and Key Announcements - The Ministry of Finance issued a notification to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, which is expected to enhance the investment appetite and stability of insurance companies [16][20]. - Several brokerages have reported optimistic earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with companies like Guolian Minsheng expecting a staggering 1183% increase in net profit [27][30]. - The report highlights the increasing stock and securities investment by insurance funds, which reached a total of 4.46 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of their total investments, marking a significant increase from previous periods [2][11].

Group 1: Market Trends - The cryptocurrency market continues to thrive, with a notable focus on Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization alongside stablecoins [1][3] - Bitcoin reached a historic high of $112,052.24 on July 10, marking a nearly 20% increase since the beginning of the year [1][3] - The stock of Derlin Holdings surged over 70% on July 10 after announcing the tokenization of $500 million worth of real assets [1][3] Group 2: RWA Tokenization - RWA refers to the tokenization of real-world assets using blockchain technology, encompassing both tangible and intangible assets [7][9] - Currently, Hong Kong's RWA offerings are primarily fixed-income assets, with limited access for retail investors due to regulatory constraints [8][9] - The market for RWA is expected to grow significantly, with predictions indicating a market size of $16 trillion by 2030 [11] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is actively exploring RWA tokenization through the Ensemble sandbox program, focusing on traditional financial assets and real-world assets [12][13] - The recent policy declaration by the Hong Kong government emphasizes the importance of stablecoins and RWA in enhancing market efficiency and liquidity [13] - Regulatory frameworks are evolving globally, with stablecoin market capitalization exceeding $240 billion as of mid-2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [11]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in Chinese brokerage stocks in Hong Kong is attributed to the upcoming implementation of the stablecoin regulations, which has led to increased interest and investment in the sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese brokerage stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant rally, with gains exceeding 7% in the afternoon session, including a rise of over 23% for Guotai Junan International and over 10% for Hongye Futures [1][3]. - In the A-share market, stocks such as Xiangcai Securities and Tianfeng Securities also saw substantial increases, with Jingbeifang hitting the daily limit and other fintech stocks showing strong performance [1][3]. - The overall market indices reflected this bullish sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.9% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by over 0.4% [3]. Group 2: Stablecoin Developments - The stablecoin sector is experiencing a pivotal moment, with applications expanding from cryptocurrency trading to broader payment scenarios, leading to rapid growth in market size and trading activity [2]. - Several companies are preparing to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, with the regulatory framework set to take effect on August 1 [1][4]. - Notable developments include Multi-Point Intelligence's announcement of plans to apply for a stablecoin license and collaborate with HashKey Group to offer stablecoin payment services, resulting in a stock surge of 25% [3]. Group 3: Stablecoin Characteristics and Market Dynamics - Stablecoins are defined as cryptocurrencies that peg their market value to external references, such as fiat currencies or specific assets, addressing key pain points in the cryptocurrency market [5][6]. - The demand for stablecoins arises from the need to solve two major trading issues: the lack of fiat currency inflow and outflow channels and the high volatility of Bitcoin, making stablecoins more suitable for everyday transactions [6]. - Stablecoins can be categorized into three types based on their stabilization methods: fully collateralized, multi-asset over-collateralized, and algorithmically adjusted [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market for stablecoins is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a total market value of $253.6 billion by June 30, 2025, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins, particularly USD-pegged ones, dominating the market [7]. - The integration of stablecoins into decentralized finance (DeFi), cross-border payments, and other financial applications is anticipated to accelerate, especially as regulatory frameworks evolve [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the leading securities ETF (560090) showing a strong upward movement, indicating increased investor interest and capital inflow into the securities sector [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 3, the leading securities ETF (560090) has risen by 0.83% and has attracted over 200 million yuan in capital over the past three days [1]. - The majority of the constituent stocks of the securities ETF have seen gains, with notable increases such as Everbright Securities rising over 2% and CITIC Securities up by 1% [3]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Sector Growth - In June, trading volumes in both markets increased significantly, with the securities sector rising by 8.65% [5]. - The approval of virtual asset trading licenses for major securities firms marks a strategic breakthrough for Chinese financial institutions in the Hong Kong virtual asset market, potentially opening up a trillion-yuan market space [6]. Group 3: Business Model Transformation - Securities firms are transitioning from traditional "channel business + wealth management" models to a dual-driven approach of "traditional finance + digital assets," which is expected to attract more firms to engage in virtual asset trading [7]. - The brokerage industry is anticipated to maintain high performance in the second half of the year, supported by active trading and improved IPO conditions [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The securities sector is expected to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, with continuous high trading volumes favoring brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [9]. - Mergers and acquisitions within the sector are progressing, with notable examples like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which are expected to enhance operational synergies and scale [10]. Group 5: Valuation and Market Position - The current valuation of the securities sector is relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of only 1.43, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for potential investors [10]. - The leading securities ETF (560090) tracks the CSI All-Share Securities Companies Index, providing an efficient investment tool for exposure to the securities sector [12].

Group 1 - The General Administration of Customs of China announced the conditional resumption of imports of aquatic products from certain regions of Japan, excluding ten prefectures including Fukushima and Tokyo, based on safety assurances from the Japanese government and monitoring results [1][2] - Japanese exporters must comply with China's food safety regulations, including reapplying for registration to export aquatic products to China, and must provide health certificates and radiation testing results upon import declaration [1][2] - Strict supervision will be implemented on Japanese aquatic products imported to China, with immediate control measures to be taken if any non-compliance with Chinese laws or safety standards is detected [2] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation conducted a special inspection of food additives across various platforms and locations, revealing issues with the misuse of food additives in certain categories, while ensuring compliance in others [10] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported a total social logistics volume of 138.7 trillion yuan from January to May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, with significant growth in consumer logistics demand [12] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated a 1.1% decline in profits for industrial enterprises above designated size from January to May 2025, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a 7.4% drop in profit [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the virtual asset sector and trading platforms, indicating a sustained focus on these areas [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of virtual assets, with increasing regulatory frameworks and institutional involvement, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for the sector [1][8]. - The Hong Kong government has released a new digital asset development policy, reinforcing its commitment to becoming a global innovation center for digital assets [48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality assets in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in light of the influx of mainland Chinese companies going public [8]. Industry Summary Education - The K12 education sector remains robust, with leading institutions like New Oriental showing positive enrollment feedback for summer programs [3][18]. - The education index rose by 7.41% during the week, outperforming major indices [9][11]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector is experiencing slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors, but brands with strong innovation capabilities are still seeing growth [3][22]. - Notable stock movements include a 6.10% increase for Samsonite and a slight decline for Prada [22][29]. Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector continues to thrive, with net increases in store numbers and positive same-store sales growth for leading brands [3][31]. - The tea beverage sector faces increased competition due to supply growth driven by delivery platform subsidies [3]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a slowdown in overall growth and intense competition, particularly in instant retail [3][30]. - Key players like JD.com and Pinduoduo have shown positive stock performance during the week [30]. Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continued profitability growth [3][37]. - The report notes a 4.5% decline in the media index, with Spotify and Netflix showing significant gains [37]. Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The report emphasizes the positive trend in virtual assets, supported by regulatory developments and institutional interest [1][8]. - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $337.24 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing [41][48]. Automotive Services - The automotive maintenance sector is monitored, with key players identified and ongoing changes in the aftermarket ecosystem [3][50]. - The report notes a 3.10% increase in the automotive services index, with mixed performances among key companies [50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the stablecoin theme has catalyzed a significant increase in the brokerage sector, with a notable 7.62% rise in the brokerage sector this week. The trading volume has shown a substantial increase, with daily average stock fund transaction amounting to 1.80 trillion, up 23.1% month-on-month. The brokerage sector is expected to maintain high prosperity in the mid-year reports, supported by low valuations and institutional underweighting [5][6] - The report emphasizes three main stock selection themes: retail brokers with strong earnings elasticity, Hong Kong Exchanges benefiting from IPO expansion and increased activity, and financial technology targets [5] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector is experiencing a positive trend, with a focus on the brokerage segment due to improved trading activity and favorable macroeconomic conditions [5][6] - The insurance sector has shown improvement in premium growth, with life insurance premiums reaching 24,473 billion, up 3.72% year-on-year, and property insurance premiums at 6,129 billion, up 3.98% [6] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stock combinations include Jiangsu Jinzheng, Hong Kong Exchanges, China Pacific Insurance, and others such as Dongfang Securities and China Life Insurance [7][8] - Beneficiary stocks highlighted in the report include Guosen Securities, CICC, and others [8]