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信达生物:2025 ASCO数据超预期,创新潜力不断兑现-20250610
海通国际· 2025-06-10 00:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$90.10, up from a previous target of HK$62.50 [2][10]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics showcased its strong oncology R&D capabilities at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, with eight studies selected for oral presentation, highlighting the efficacy and safety of IBI363 and IBI343 in various cancer types [3][15]. - The data presented for IBI363 in IO-pretreated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) supports its potential as a backbone therapy for future immuno-oncology treatments [4][16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Innovent Biologics are set at RMB 11.86 billion for 2025, with a growth rate of 26% compared to the previous year [10][13]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2025, achieving a net profit of RMB 384 million, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [10][13]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 monotherapy demonstrated a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 9.3 months in advanced NSCLC patients, outperforming standard therapies [5][19]. - In patients with MSS-type colorectal cancer, IBI363 showed a median overall survival (mOS) of 16.1 months, significantly longer than the typical 9-10 months seen with current treatments [8][20]. - The efficacy of IBI363 in treating acral and mucosal melanoma was also notable, with a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 23.3% in IO-refractory patients [9][22]. Valuation and Estimates - The report employs a DCF model for valuation, estimating a share price of HK$90.10 based on projected cash flows from 2026 to 2037 [10][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, around 84% in the coming years, indicating strong operational efficiency [10][13].