1月5日（周一），沪铜上涨，开年表现强劲，因智利矿山罢工导致供应担忧加剧。 上海期货交易所（SHFE）主力期铜日间收盘上涨2.68%，报每吨101,350元，在2026年首个交易日收复 100,000元关口。 与此同时，上周五，南非约翰内斯堡-艾芬豪矿业执行联席董事长罗伯特·弗里兰德 (Robert Friedland) 、 联席董事长郝维宝 (Weibao Hao) 与总裁兼首席执行官玛娜·克洛特 (Marna Cloete)公布，卡莫阿–卡库拉 (Kamoa-Kakula)50万吨/年一步炼铜冶炼厂在点火烘炉约五周后，也即首次投料一周后，于12月29日顺 利出产第一批阳极铜。 LME其他金属中，三个月期锌上涨1.07%，报每吨3,160.5美元；三个月期铅上涨0.32%，报每吨2,013美 元； 由于主要工会与公司就新劳动合同的谈判破裂，Capstone Copper在智利北部的Mantoverde铜金矿数百名 矿工罢工，对铜价构成支撑。 三个月期镍上涨0.3%，报每吨16,870美元。 罢工发生后2026年供应担忧继续加剧。此前矿山业务中断、美国关税导致的地区性混乱推动铜价在过去 一年创下历史新高。 铝 ...

12月29日（周一），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜周一创历史新高后回撤，因部分投资者锁定获利。 LME三个月期铜目前上涨3.27%，报每吨12,560美元，盘中创下每吨12,960美元的历史新高。 其他基本金属方面，三个月期铝上涨0.49%；三个月期锌上涨0.68%；三个月期铅上涨0.70%；三个月期 锡上涨1.60%，报每吨43,765美元。期镍下跌0.13%。 有技术分析师称，预计LME三个月期铜本周料向每吨12,344-12,544美元区间回撤，因市场在每吨12,869 美元附近遭遇强劲阻力。该分析师称，预计LME三个月期铝本周料能突破每吨3,006美元的阻力位，然 后进一步指向每吨3,063美元。若跌破每吨2,970美元的支撑位，则可能进一度跌向每吨2,913-2,930美 元。 （文华综合） 分析师称，在铜价触及纪录新高后，投资者选择获利了结，部分投资者开始观望，且市场风险偏好下 降。 随着年末临近和铜价处于高位，现货市场需求料受抑，这会给铜价涨势带来压力。 沪铜上周上涨约6%，而伦敦铜价周涨幅为1.93%。 周一涨势也得到了交易者对美联储再降息两次的押注的支持，市场正在等待周二将公布的美联储12月 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices reached a record high, with LME three-month copper trading at $11,871 per ton and hitting an intraday high of $11,952 [1] - LME three-month copper has increased by over 1.7% this week, while the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.95% to 94,080 yuan per ton, with an intraday peak of 94,570 yuan [2] - Market sentiment improved following the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut, with concerns about copper shortages outside the U.S. due to supply disruptions and increased demand in sectors like electricity, construction, and manufacturing [2] Group 2 - ANZ Research predicts that copper prices will remain above $11,000 per ton by 2026, potentially approaching $12,000 by year-end, driven by tight supply and accelerating demand [2] - Cochilco forecasts that Chile's mining investment will reach $104.55 billion from 2023 to 2034, significantly higher than the previous estimate of $83 billion, marking the highest spending forecast since 2016 [3] - In the LME base metals market, three-month aluminum fell by 0.3% to $1,890.50 per ton, while zinc and lead also saw declines, whereas nickel rose by 0.1% to $14,640 per ton [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 2 - As of December 10, London copper prices remained stable, slightly below record highs, with a 0.68% increase to $11,565 per ton [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 0.23% decrease in the main copper contract, closing at 91,850 yuan per ton [1]. - Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 4,155 contracts to 62,397 contracts as of the week ending November 4 [1]. Group 3 - Overseas aluminum suppliers have raised their quotes for shipments to Japan in Q1 2024, with premiums of $190-203 per ton over LME spot prices, marking an increase of 121%-136% compared to Q4 2023 [2]. - In LME base metals, three-month aluminum rose by 0.37% to $2,867 per ton, while zinc, lead, nickel, and tin also saw price increases [2]. - In Shanghai, the main aluminum contract fell by 0.25% to 21,935 yuan per ton, while other metals like zinc and nickel also experienced declines [2].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin futures rose over 3%, reaching $40,385 per ton, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) main tin futures contract increased by 3.05%, reaching 318,770 yuan per ton [1]. Group 1 - LME three-month tin futures increased by over 3% [1] - Current price of LME three-month tin is $40,385 per ton [1] - SHFE main tin futures contract rose by 3.05% [1] Group 2 - Current price of SHFE main tin futures is 318,770 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - Shanghai copper futures closed higher, boosted by weak U.S. economic data, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][2] - The most actively traded Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contract rose by 360 yuan or 0.41% to 87,430 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41% [1] - London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rose by 42.5 dollars or 0.39% to 10,982 dollars per ton, with an expected weekly increase of nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Weak U.S. retail sales and low consumer confidence have strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [2] - The U.S. dollar weakened this week but saw a slight recovery on Friday, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus supporting metal prices [2] - Other metals on the Shanghai market showed mixed performance, with aluminum rising by 70 yuan or 0.32% to 21,610 yuan per ton, while zinc fell by 50 yuan or 0.22% to 22,425 yuan per ton [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the attractiveness of rising copper prices, combined with a balanced market and short-term supply risks, will push aluminum prices close to 3,000 dollars per ton in the first half of 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices have declined due to a strong US dollar and mixed employment data, leading to cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 16:14 Beijing time, LME three-month copper fell by 0.66% to $10,667 per ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.65% [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract closed down 0.83% at 85,660 yuan per ton, with a weekly drop of 1.43% [1] - LME three-month aluminum decreased by 0.94% to $2,787.50 per ton, zinc fell by 1.33% to $2,976 per ton, lead dropped by 1.07% to $1,989 per ton, tin decreased by 0.79% to $36,775 per ton, and nickel fell by 0.94% to $14,365 per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The mixed September employment data, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth but a rise in the unemployment rate to a near four-year high, is significant for the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] - The September employment data is the last official employment report before the December interest rate decision [1] - Many Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish stance, contributing to the strength of the US dollar, which pressures dollar-denominated commodities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in copper prices, with investors viewing recent price declines as an opportunity to enter the market [1][2] - LME three-month copper rose by 0.9% to $10,812 per ton, influenced by positive sentiment in the stock market ahead of Nvidia's earnings report [2] - Supply factors, particularly global mine shutdowns, have also contributed to the rise in copper prices, with Freeport-McMoRan planning to restart production at the Grasberg copper-gold mine in Indonesia by July next year [3] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine was previously shut down due to a fatal accident, and the company expects its copper and gold output to remain stable at approximately 1 billion pounds of copper and 90 million ounces of gold by 2026 [3] - Other base metals also saw price movements, with three-month zinc up 0.8% to $3,014 per ton, aluminum up 1% to $2,808.50 per ton, lead down 0.1% to $2,022 per ton, and tin up 1.7% to $37,505 per ton [3]

Group 1 - LME copper futures weakened amid a general decline in the base metals market, influenced by hawkish comments from some Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate decisions in December [1] - The main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 790 yuan or 0.91% to 86,450 yuan per ton [1] - As of 16:30 Beijing time, LME three-month copper dropped by 0.24% to $10,825.50 per ton, reflecting market pressures from expectations that the Fed may not lower rates [1] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced declines, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.14% to 21,725 yuan per ton, lead down 1.39% to 17,355 yuan per ton, zinc down 0.33% to 22,465 yuan per ton, nickel down 0.92% to 116,750 yuan per ton, and tin down 1.32% to 290,360 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 0.33% to $2,849 per ton, zinc decreased by 0.23% to $3,013.50 per ton, lead dropped by 0.41% to $2,055.50 per ton, and nickel declined by 0.38% to $14,835 per ton, while tin saw a slight increase of 0.08% to $36,815 per ton [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices increased due to optimism surrounding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, with three-month copper rising by $79.5 to $10,796.0 per ton [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper rose by $79.5, or 0.74%, closing at $10,796.0 per ton [1][2]. - Other base metals also saw increases, with three-month aluminum up by $21.5 (0.75%), zinc up by $24.5 (0.80%), lead up by $11.5 (0.56%), tin up by $202.0 (0.56%), and nickel up by $48.0 (0.32%) [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 23%, reaching a record high of $11,200 per ton on October 29 [4]. - The U.S. Senate passed a bill aimed at reopening the federal government, which positively influenced market sentiment and risk appetite [5]. - Recent economic data, including a drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, suggests a potential call for lower U.S. interest rates [5]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand - China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October, while the core CPI increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [6]. - The producer price index (PPI) in China saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise of the year, although it decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [6]. - Significant aluminum inflows into the LME from the Middle East, Australia, and Indonesia have led to a decrease in the available stock ratios of Russian and Indian aluminum in LME warehouses [6].