智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，2026年A股公司出海已告别单纯的商品出口阶段，进入 产能、品牌、管理体系协同输出的质变期。量化数据显示，2723家涉出海业务的A股公司中，60.96%持 积极态度，12393条相关公告中45.38%为积极类表述，反映出出海已从可选战略转为必选动作。龙头企 业通过海外建厂、本地化运营、全产业链配套，实现从中国制造到全球制造的跨越。 风险提示：需重点关注三大变量：一是贸易摩擦升级风险，欧美可能针对成熟制程芯片、电动车等领域 加码限制;二是汇率波动风险，若人民币大幅波动可能影响出海企业汇兑损益;三是地缘政治风险，海外 建厂面临的法律、劳工、政策变动风险不可忽视。 国信证券主要观点如下： "哑铃型"组合为最优配置，平衡稳健收益与成长弹性。投资策略应兼顾"全球化红利资产"与"技术突围 成长股"：左手聚焦高分红、低估值的稳健资产，如商用客车、化工新材料龙头，海外营收占比稳定且 现金流充沛;右手布局高成长、技术突破的进攻资产，对应"非常积极"类公司，如半导体设备、AI服务 器企业，受益于全球供应链重构与技术迭代，业绩有望非线性增长。两类资产形成互补，既抵御市场波 动，又把握产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in A-shares have led to divergent expectations among investors during the "cross-year" phase, but the short-term impact of internal and external factors on A-shares may be nearing its end, with a relatively loose liquidity environment expected to persist into the first quarter of next year [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current low-interest-rate environment is likely to continue driving the trend of "deposit migration" among residents, providing a favorable opportunity for investors to position themselves for the "cross-year" market [1] - The recent pullback in indices has created a good entry point for investors looking to capitalize on upcoming market trends [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on growth styles during market dips, while dividend styles should emphasize phase-specific and structural opportunities [1] - Three main investment themes are recommended: 1. **Growth in Prosperous Sectors**: The AI technology sector is expected to transition into an application phase next year, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly in domestic markets. Key application areas include robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software applications. Additionally, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, and solid-state batteries are entering a prosperous cycle [1] 2. **External Demand Breakthrough**: The trend of going overseas presents a relatively certain growth opportunity. Sectors to focus on include home appliances, construction machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources such as non-ferrous metals [1] 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention should be given to sectors nearing improvement points in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1] - Dividend sectors possess defensive attributes but may still be more phase-specific and structural in nature, suggesting a bottom-up stock selection approach based on quality free cash flow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a 10-year high at 4030.40 points, leading to discussions on whether investors should switch sectors as the year-end approaches [1] Market Trends - The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with strong sectors like semiconductors, AI, and chips showing lackluster performance recently [1] - Historical patterns indicate that value stocks such as banks, non-bank financials, and food and beverage sectors have a win rate exceeding 70% during the year-end period (November-December) [3] - The banking sector saw a 9.36% increase in December 2024, while technology sectors like computers and electronics gained a 15% increase in January 2023 [3] Sector Performance - The Consumer sector, particularly the liquor segment, has shown strong performance despite pressure from fundamentals after the third-quarter reports [1] - The China Securities Dividend Index tends to perform well before year-end, indicating a potential shift in market focus [1] Investment Strategies - Two key investment tracks are highlighted: 1. **Cyclical Recovery in Undervalued Industries**: Traditional industries are seeing improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with sectors like white goods, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles being identified as having global competitive advantages [6] 2. **Defensive High-Dividend Strategies**: High-dividend assets are viewed as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios, particularly in uncertain market conditions [10] Fund Performance - The China Securities Major Consumer Index has nearly doubled in size since 2023, with the Huatai-PineBridge China Securities Major Consumer ETF leading with a scale exceeding 20 billion [7] - The demand for long-term dividend investments remains strong, driven by the ongoing asset shortage in the banking sector [11] Index and Fund Recommendations - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index and the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index are recommended for investors seeking stable growth and risk diversification [12][13]