Market Performance - The A-share market showed weakness today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.5% [1][5] - Major indices experienced declines, including the CSI 300 down 2.1%, the STAR 50 down 3.9%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.5% [1][5] - The trading volume today was 2.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 0.26 trillion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][5] External Factors - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to increased external uncertainties, including the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has affected expectations for U.S. monetary policy [2][6] - Global commodity prices have sharply declined, impacting market sentiment and risk appetite, with significant drops in gold and other commodities [2][6] Investment Strategy - The current market volatility presents opportunities for bottom-fishing, as the underlying positive factors such as ample liquidity and improving performance remain unchanged [3][7] - The market is expected to continue supporting Chinese assets in 2026, driven by the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation trends [3][7] Sector Focus - Suggested areas for investment include: 1. Growth sectors such as AI technology, cloud computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are entering a growth cycle [4][8] 2. Export-oriented sectors, particularly in home appliances, engineering machinery, and gaming, which are seen as stable growth opportunities [4][8] 3. Cyclical sectors like chemicals and renewable energy, which may benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics [4][8] 4. High-dividend stocks, which are attractive for long-term investors seeking stable cash flow [4][8]

建议逢低布局。本次波动与美联储主席提名引发的美宽松预期变化有关，但更主要的可能是此前大宗商 品价格过快上行，交易拥挤度较高，一旦预期变化将引发头寸集中抛售。并且该行认为凯文·沃什的决 策可能受到较多制约，美联储难以像市场担忧彻底转为鹰派，市场短期可能已经提前计入较多悲观预 期。A股当前资金面充裕、业绩改善、产业趋势催化等积极因素并未发生改变，该行认为短期波动已开 始提供逢低布局机会。中期而言，该行在此前研报中指出，国际秩序重构与我国产业创新趋势共振是推 动本轮市场上涨、中国资产重估的核心驱动力；全球货币秩序重构带来的格局转换和资金流动的力量， 或远大于一时、一国和一市场的基本面力量。该行认为，这两大条件未发生改变，2026年将继续支持中 国资产表现。 A股今日表现偏弱，上证指数下跌2.5%。2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对 充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市 场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌3.9%、 2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

外资看好中国企业"出海"板块 1月份以来，A股上市公司迎来外资机构密集调研。Wind资讯数据显示，截至1月26日，年内累计164家外资机构调研324家 A股公司。从调研纪要来看，多家公司被问及2026年海外市场布局的情况。 高盛最新研报提到，中国出口已从"成本优势驱动"转向"技术与供应链效率驱动"，在新质生产力领域已经形成全球不可替 代的产能集群。 本报记者 毛艺融 在"出海"企业数量与布局范围扩张的背后，国际资本对中国企业全球化布局的认可正持续升温。2026年以来，外资机构 对"出海"板块的调研热度显著提升，反映出国际资本对中国企业全球化布局的深度认可。同时，多家国际知名机构也在2026年 展望中表示看好"出海"板块。 "出海"投资机遇受关注 从政策面来看，支持企业开展国际化经营等被多次强调。日前，商务部自贸区港建设协调司副司长、新闻发言人何咏前表 示，2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，商务部将坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，有效实施对外投资管理，健全海外 综合服务体系，促进贸易投资一体化发展，支持企业开展国际化经营。 政策支持、企业层面的盈利改善与产业层面的布局升级，让资本市场对"出海"主线的投资 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that by 2026, A-share companies will transition from merely exporting goods to a phase of collaborative output involving capacity, branding, and management systems, marking a qualitative shift in overseas operations [1] - Among 2,723 A-share companies engaged in overseas business, 60.96% hold a positive attitude towards international expansion, with 45.38% of 12,393 related announcements reflecting positive statements, indicating that going global has shifted from an optional strategy to a necessary action [1] Industry Analysis - "High-tech" industries are becoming the main force in overseas expansion, with technological barriers and industry concentration determining long-term value. The core logic of industry selection focuses on high-tech moats and strong industry clusters, which provide irreplaceability along with cost and efficiency advantages [2] - Three key sectors identified for overseas expansion include: - Chemical new materials (polyurethane, fiberglass) leveraging global pricing power and overseas base layouts to avoid trade barriers - High-end equipment (buses, construction machinery, semiconductor equipment) capitalizing on technology spillover to capture markets in "connector countries" - Electronic components (servers, MLCC) benefiting from global AI computing infrastructure and automotive electronics demand [2] - Data shows that over 70% of companies in machinery, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, computers, and automobiles are positively inclined towards overseas operations, making them core vehicles for international expansion [2] Regional Opportunities - Distinct opportunities are emerging across global markets, with a strategic focus on three core regions: - Europe emphasizes high-end manufacturing and green transformation, with localized production in new energy buses and chemical new materials to overcome technical and tariff barriers - Southeast Asia serves as a "backyard" for industry chain overflow, with semiconductor equipment and consumer electronics benefiting from mature process expansion and consumption upgrades - The Middle East and Latin America are emerging as new frontiers for photovoltaic energy storage and construction machinery, driven by energy transition and infrastructure demands [2] Investment Strategy - An "hourglass" portfolio is recommended to balance stable returns with growth flexibility, focusing on both "globalization dividend assets" and "technology breakthrough growth stocks": - The left side targets high-dividend, low-valuation stable assets, such as commercial buses and leading chemical new materials companies with stable overseas revenue and strong cash flow - The right side invests in high-growth, technology-driven assets, corresponding to "very positive" companies like semiconductor equipment and AI server firms, which are expected to experience nonlinear growth due to global supply chain restructuring and technological iteration [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in A-shares have led to divergent expectations among investors during the "cross-year" phase, but the short-term impact of internal and external factors on A-shares may be nearing its end, with a relatively loose liquidity environment expected to persist into the first quarter of next year [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current low-interest-rate environment is likely to continue driving the trend of "deposit migration" among residents, providing a favorable opportunity for investors to position themselves for the "cross-year" market [1] - The recent pullback in indices has created a good entry point for investors looking to capitalize on upcoming market trends [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on growth styles during market dips, while dividend styles should emphasize phase-specific and structural opportunities [1] - Three main investment themes are recommended: 1. **Growth in Prosperous Sectors**: The AI technology sector is expected to transition into an application phase next year, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly in domestic markets. Key application areas include robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software applications. Additionally, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, and solid-state batteries are entering a prosperous cycle [1] 2. **External Demand Breakthrough**: The trend of going overseas presents a relatively certain growth opportunity. Sectors to focus on include home appliances, construction machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources such as non-ferrous metals [1] 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention should be given to sectors nearing improvement points in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1] - Dividend sectors possess defensive attributes but may still be more phase-specific and structural in nature, suggesting a bottom-up stock selection approach based on quality free cash flow [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a 10-year high at 4030.40 points, leading to discussions on whether investors should switch sectors as the year-end approaches [1] Market Trends - The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with strong sectors like semiconductors, AI, and chips showing lackluster performance recently [1] - Historical patterns indicate that value stocks such as banks, non-bank financials, and food and beverage sectors have a win rate exceeding 70% during the year-end period (November-December) [3] - The banking sector saw a 9.36% increase in December 2024, while technology sectors like computers and electronics gained a 15% increase in January 2023 [3] Sector Performance - The Consumer sector, particularly the liquor segment, has shown strong performance despite pressure from fundamentals after the third-quarter reports [1] - The China Securities Dividend Index tends to perform well before year-end, indicating a potential shift in market focus [1] Investment Strategies - Two key investment tracks are highlighted: 1. **Cyclical Recovery in Undervalued Industries**: Traditional industries are seeing improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with sectors like white goods, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles being identified as having global competitive advantages [6] 2. **Defensive High-Dividend Strategies**: High-dividend assets are viewed as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios, particularly in uncertain market conditions [10] Fund Performance - The China Securities Major Consumer Index has nearly doubled in size since 2023, with the Huatai-PineBridge China Securities Major Consumer ETF leading with a scale exceeding 20 billion [7] - The demand for long-term dividend investments remains strong, driven by the ongoing asset shortage in the banking sector [11] Index and Fund Recommendations - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index and the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index are recommended for investors seeking stable growth and risk diversification [12][13]