Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that by 2026, A-share companies will transition from merely exporting goods to a phase of collaborative output involving capacity, branding, and management systems, marking a qualitative shift in overseas operations [1] - Among 2,723 A-share companies engaged in overseas business, 60.96% hold a positive attitude towards international expansion, with 45.38% of 12,393 related announcements reflecting positive statements, indicating that going global has shifted from an optional strategy to a necessary action [1] Industry Analysis - "High-tech" industries are becoming the main force in overseas expansion, with technological barriers and industry concentration determining long-term value. The core logic of industry selection focuses on high-tech moats and strong industry clusters, which provide irreplaceability along with cost and efficiency advantages [2] - Three key sectors identified for overseas expansion include: - Chemical new materials (polyurethane, fiberglass) leveraging global pricing power and overseas base layouts to avoid trade barriers - High-end equipment (buses, construction machinery, semiconductor equipment) capitalizing on technology spillover to capture markets in "connector countries" - Electronic components (servers, MLCC) benefiting from global AI computing infrastructure and automotive electronics demand [2] - Data shows that over 70% of companies in machinery, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, computers, and automobiles are positively inclined towards overseas operations, making them core vehicles for international expansion [2] Regional Opportunities - Distinct opportunities are emerging across global markets, with a strategic focus on three core regions: - Europe emphasizes high-end manufacturing and green transformation, with localized production in new energy buses and chemical new materials to overcome technical and tariff barriers - Southeast Asia serves as a "backyard" for industry chain overflow, with semiconductor equipment and consumer electronics benefiting from mature process expansion and consumption upgrades - The Middle East and Latin America are emerging as new frontiers for photovoltaic energy storage and construction machinery, driven by energy transition and infrastructure demands [2] Investment Strategy - An "hourglass" portfolio is recommended to balance stable returns with growth flexibility, focusing on both "globalization dividend assets" and "technology breakthrough growth stocks": - The left side targets high-dividend, low-valuation stable assets, such as commercial buses and leading chemical new materials companies with stable overseas revenue and strong cash flow - The right side invests in high-growth, technology-driven assets, corresponding to "very positive" companies like semiconductor equipment and AI server firms, which are expected to experience nonlinear growth due to global supply chain restructuring and technological iteration [3]

出海范式全面升级，从产品输出迈向体系出海成为核心主线。2026 年 A 股公 司出海已告别单纯的商品出口阶段，进入产能、品牌、管理体系协同输出的 质变期。量化数据显示，2723 家涉出海业务的 A 股公司中，60.96%持积极态 度，12393 条相关公告中 45.38%为积极类表述，反映出出海已从可选战略转 为必选动作。龙头企业通过海外建厂、本地化运营、全产业链配套，实现从 中国制造到全球制造的跨越。 "双高"行业成出海主力，技术壁垒与产业集聚度决定长期价值。行业选择 的核心逻辑聚焦高技术护城河与强产业集聚度，这两类行业既具备不可替代 性，又拥有成本与效率优势。三大黄金赛道：化工新材料（聚氨酯、玻纤） 凭借全球定价权与海外基地布局规避贸易壁垒；高端装备（客车、工程机械、 半导体设备）依托技术外溢抢占"连接器国家"市场；电子元器件（服务器、 MLCC）受益于全球 AI 算力基建与汽车电子化需求。从数据看，机械设备、 电力设备、医药生物、计算机、汽车五大行业积极类公司数占比超七成，成 为出海核心载体。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 资配跨年展望(二) 大国出海下的"新核心资产" 区域机会呈现差异化， ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the expectation of a robust economic start in 2026 driven by proactive macro policies and structural reforms as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to improve, nearing the "7" mark against the USD [1][19] Focused Commentary - Wu Qing highlights the importance of enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on public fund reforms and aligning investor interests [3] - The article discusses the need for a binding mechanism for public funds to ensure investor profit and loss are core to assessments, promoting the development of equity funds and index investments [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities predicts a more proactive policy direction in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, with a focus on consumption expansion, technological innovation, and real estate risk mitigation [5] - Huaxia Fund suggests that the "spring rally" may start earlier due to key meetings, improved macro liquidity, and easing of funding pressures, recommending a focus on AI, domestic demand recovery, and resource sectors [6] -招商证券 notes that December's market will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meetings and domestic conferences, with a preference for large-cap stocks and blue-chip dividends [7] Industry Research - Galaxy Securities indicates that the power industry will see opportunities for capacity upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stable profitability in thermal power and growth in nuclear power [12] - Harvest Fund expresses optimism for the energy storage sector, highlighting its transition to a growth phase driven by policy and technological advancements [13] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities sees significant growth potential in the low-altitude economy, predicting a market size exceeding one trillion by 2030 [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities anticipates a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with a forecast of 6.82 against the USD by the end of 2026, driven by strong export growth and seasonal currency settlement peaks [19] - Bosera Fund notes a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a need for clearer signals of policy easing to boost demand [20] - Guotai Fund believes that the bond market may see a recovery opportunity following recent volatility, suggesting it could be a good time for long-term positioning [21] Asset Allocation - CICC recommends maintaining a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation, combining dividend stocks with technology investments, while adjusting weights based on market conditions [23]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 下一阶段的行业选择思路 >>点击图片查看全文<< 往前看应该如何配置，是当下市场普遍关心的问题：是咬定科技不放松，还是平衡更多到分红，又或是可以提前布局已经无人问津很久 的内需消费？我们认为，信用周期，不仅可以指引整体的宏观走向，也是一个行之有效的比较框架，可以帮助我们选择配置方向。综合 而言，投资者仍可延续"哑铃型"组合（红利+科技互联网）作为配置底仓，并结合拥挤度动态调整组合权重，可以起到较好的对冲和平 衡效果。在此基础上，外需拉动的顺周期（铜铝等有色、化工、工程机械、甚至地产链）和创新药倒可以作为组合弹性选择，尤其是在 一季度。相反，内需消费板块依然会受基本面拖累。 2025.12.01 | 刘刚 张典 02 大类资产 Strategy 布局年末政策窗口期 >>点击图片查看全文<< 海外，随着美联储会议时点接近，我们预期市场关注点可能重回美联储降息，在FOMC会议召开之前，全球股债商金等资产表现可能有 所改善。进入2026年，随着美国通胀进一步上升，美联储可能放慢降息节奏，我们预期12月FOMC会议之后，美元流 ...

大盘震荡不断，市场分歧加大，能否实现有效突破还是仍需后市的检验。市场冲击高位，结合岁末年初的日历效应催化，获利盘的止盈需求会 显著升温，并且市场上科技成长做多情绪反复，波动幅度进一步加大。 "道路千万条，安全第一条"，行情震荡加大，各位投资者也要记得系好 安全带，做好"由攻转守"的准备。 而说到防守，自然就得看看红利现金流板块，红利现金流的稳健属性，恰好可以与科技板块的高成长特质形成互补，在市场波动里换取一些安 心的"安全垫"。从时间窗口来看，年末资金更倾向于落袋为安，市场资金也会加速涌入红利现金流板块。从投资策略看，红利现金流板块更加 可以和科技搭配可构建"哑铃型组合"：既不缺席成长赛道的机会，又能靠红利夯实收益底盘。 这里也向投资者们介绍两个可以配置的标的： 1、红利国企ETF（510720） | | 2015/6/12- | 2018/1/29- | 2021/2/19- | 2023/8/8 - | 2024/5/24- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2015/9/15 | 2019/1/2 | 2022/4/29 | 2024/2/5 | 2 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Transsion Holdings (688036) leading the gain at 4.86% and GAC Group (601238) up by 3.78% [1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility as the year-end approaches, and CICC suggests maintaining a "barbell" strategy (dividend + technology internet) for portfolio allocation [1] - The management fee for the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index include Kweichow Moutai (600519) and Zijin Mining (601899), collectively accounting for 26.13% of the index [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has several off-market connection options, including Ping An's various linked funds [2]

Core Insights - The cash flow ETF (159399) and the dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) both announced dividends this month, with distribution ratios of 0.25% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The cash flow ETF has distributed dividends 7 times since its inception, while the dividend state-owned enterprise ETF has done so 17 times [1] Group 1: Market Context - Since July, market indices have risen sharply, leading to a bullish sentiment among investors [2] - A study by scholars from Tsinghua University and the London School of Economics revealed that in the 2015 bull market, 85% of retail investors with assets below 500,000 lost a total of 250 billion yuan, with those under 100,000 experiencing a 97% loss rate [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Asset allocation remains crucial in a volatile market, with research indicating that funds with higher real returns tend to have lower annual volatility and higher average dividend yields [4] - Despite the bullish market, the investment value of dividend assets should not be overlooked, as they provide a stable return and can serve as a risk hedge [5] Group 3: ETF Performance - The cash flow ETF (159399) tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index, selecting the top 50 stocks by cash flow rate, with a market capitalization weight of approximately 70% in stocks over 100 billion yuan [6] - The FTSE cash flow index has shown strong long-term performance, with an annualized return of nearly 20% and a cumulative increase of 660.56% since its base date, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Index [9] Group 4: Dividend Yield Comparison - The dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index, focusing on high-dividend central state-owned enterprises, with a dividend yield of nearly 5% as of August 2025 [11] - A comparison of various indices shows that the Shanghai State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index has a 12-month dividend yield of 4.39%, outperforming several other indices [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - Investors are encouraged to consider a "barbell" strategy, balancing high-growth technology investments with stable dividend assets to manage risk and seize opportunities [14]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is weak, suggesting that investors should maintain a slightly lower duration. If interest rates adjust to high levels, there may be short-term trading opportunities using 30-year government bonds [1]. Investment Strategy - In a steep yield curve environment, a bullet strategy is recommended; however, due to its limited flexibility and potential need for position reduction, a bullet strategy may not outperform a barbell strategy in dynamic investing [1]. - Investors are advised to adopt a barbell structure, focusing on 1-year certificates of deposit and short-term credit with lower ratings, alongside long-end high-yield active bonds and 6-7 year secondary capital bonds [1]. Market Performance - Since the recent bond market adjustment starting from August 8, 2025, the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has ranked first in terms of drawdown control, with the least market discount in the past week, indicating a relatively stable net value and manageable drawdown [1]. - A detailed table of various ETFs is provided, showing metrics such as scale, recent average discount, recent drawdown, and maximum drawdown, highlighting the performance of different bond ETFs [1].