证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 03 日 [Table_Title] "乱纪元"之轮动思维 [Table_Title2] 类权益月报 [Table_Summary] ►行情回顾：关税新版本，政策新叙事 5 月，外部压力边际减缓，政策带来新叙事。5 月初，市场积 极交易中美贸易关系缓和预期。5 月 12 日，中美宣布互降关 税，市场则转而交易利好落地。政策方面，5 月 7 日，《推动公 募基金高质量发展行动方案》发布，"基金调仓"叙事受到关 注。5 月底，小微盘拥挤度推升至历史高位，行情震荡回调。 ► 海外预期：长期有底，但短期不确定性高悬 当前，市场对于海外的预期是长期有底，但短期不确定性仍 存。从第一轮谈判来看，中美在贸易方面共识多于分歧，但 短期特朗普关税政策存在较大的不确定性，法院最终是否会 判定特朗普依据IEEPA征收的关税无效，以及特朗普是否会采 取其他法律依据来征收关税仍未可知，后续可以重点关注后 续美国与欧洲和日本的谈判中，对于贸易顺差的处理。 ►权益板块轮动仍将延续，等待指数低波状态变化 海外预期的复杂组合下，市场或逐步进入脱敏状态，交易或 将更偏 ...

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.39%, and S&P 500 up 0.4% [4] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia increasing over 3% and Broadcom up over 1% [4] - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with US Pixel up over 6% [4] - Chinese stocks listed in the US also saw gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 1.44% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 1.49% to $60.92 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.43% to $63.40 per barrel [5] - Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold up 0.96% to $3317.8 per ounce [4] Corporate Developments - Nvidia's CEO plans to sell up to 6 million shares of stock, which may attract market attention [17] - Li Auto reported a net profit of 647 million yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with a delivery volume of 92,864 vehicles, up 15.5% [19] - Nezha Auto's logo was removed from its headquarters as the company prepares to relocate, indicating a potential shift in strategy [23] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The Chinese government urged the US to completely eliminate unilateral tariffs, emphasizing that trade wars have no winners [7] - The Chinese government issued an opinion to enhance the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors by 2027, aiming for a more active trading market [8] New Initiatives - Huo La La announced the second batch of algorithm transparency measures to improve fairness and reduce costs for drivers [24] - DeepSeek-R1 model update enhances reasoning capabilities, positioning it competitively against international models [21] Miscellaneous - The Shanghai Lego Resort saw high demand, with all hotel rooms sold out shortly after opening, reflecting strong consumer interest in leisure activities [27]

Robotics - Zhiyuan Robotics announced that its Expedition A2 humanoid robot has passed four product certifications: China CR, EU CE-MD, EU CE-RED, and US FCC, making it the first humanoid robot globally to achieve certifications in these three regions [1] - The successful certifications indicate that the safety performance and technical strength of the Expedition A2 meet the highest certification standards for core global markets, demonstrating the competitiveness of Zhiyuan Robotics' products [1] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with predictions that by 2025, China's humanoid robot production will exceed 10,000 units, and the market size will surpass 10 billion yuan, accounting for over 50% of the global market [1] Autonomous Driving - Tesla is set to launch its long-awaited Robotaxi service on June 12 in Austin, marking a significant milestone in Elon Musk's efforts to reshape the company's business around autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence [2] - The global push for autonomous driving is in a phase of optimizing legal regulations, aiming to achieve L4 level autonomous driving by around 2025, with the period from 2020 to 2030 being termed the "golden decade" for autonomous driving development [2] - By 2030, it is projected that 50% of cars in China will be autonomous, with around 80 million vehicles globally achieving levels 4 and 5 of autonomy [2] Short Dramas - Douyin Group established a Short Drama Copyright Center to enhance copyright management and improve the quality of short dramas, signaling a significant investment in high-quality content within the short drama industry [3] - The short drama sector, particularly micro-short dramas, is seen as a vibrant and promising area in the global audiovisual industry, reflecting cultural psychology and social realities [3] - The micro-short drama market in China is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2024, surpassing the box office revenue of films (42.5 billion yuan), with projections of reaching 63.4 to 68 billion yuan by 2025 and over 100 billion yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 19% to 25% [3]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw collective gains across the three major indices, with the ChiNext Index leading the rise, closing at 2012.55 points, up 1.37% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3363.45 points, up 0.70%, with a trading volume of 453.7 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10127.20 points, up 1.24%, with a trading volume of 731.7 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as unmanned vehicles, digital currency, software development, and innovative pharmaceuticals showed significant gains, while gold, glyphosate, food, and banking sectors experienced declines [1] - The unmanned vehicle and smart driving concept stocks saw a collective surge, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Digital currency concept stocks also strengthened, with multiple stocks reaching the daily limit [2] - Innovative pharmaceutical stocks became active again, with companies like Shuyitai hitting the daily limit [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities predicts a potential annual-level market trend for Chinese equity assets, suggesting a shift from small-cap stocks to core assets, with a decreasing gap in performance between high-performing and loss-making stocks [3] - Core assets are expected to show significant relative profitability and operational resilience, with a profit turning point appearing ahead of the overall A-share market [3] - CICC highlights the growth opportunities in automotive smart display technology, particularly in HUD products and virtual panoramic displays, as Chinese manufacturers increase market share [3] Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on the design sector within the electronics industry, particularly SoC/ASIC/storage/CIS, anticipating strong performance in Q2 [4] - The AI SoC chip companies are expected to benefit from increased penetration of AI hardware, with optimistic projections for growth [4] - The storage sector is forecasted to see an increase in contract prices, driving performance growth [4]

Group 1 - Tesla has been testing the Model Y's autonomous driving system on public roads in Austin without any accidents reported, with plans for the first self-delivery of the Model Y autonomous vehicles in June [1] - Self-delivery refers to Tesla's initiative to use Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to autonomously transport vehicles from the factory to customers, marking a significant step in the scaling of autonomous driving technology [3] - Elon Musk announced his intention to continue serving as Tesla's CEO for the next five years, indicating a temporary withdrawal from the political arena to focus on his business ventures [8] Group 2 - Musk has returned to a 24/7 work schedule, emphasizing the need to concentrate on Tesla, X/xAI, and the upcoming Starship launch, as the company is rolling out critical technologies [6] - A White House official confirmed that the administration would begin processing Musk's departure from his role as a special government employee, with his term limited to 130 days [4]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk announced that the first deliveries of the MODEL Y autonomous driving vehicle will take place in June [1] Group 1 - The MODEL Y is a significant product for the company, indicating a move towards advanced autonomous driving technology [1]