Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5] Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating retail environment, with its main brands maintaining stable performance while the outdoor brand matrix continues to grow significantly [8] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in both online and offline channels, alongside the positive momentum of its FILA and outdoor brand matrix [4] Summary by Sections Brand Performance - FILA brand experienced a slight deceleration in growth with a Q3 revenue increase in low single digits, attributed to higher September temperatures affecting autumn apparel sales timing. The offline discount rate was 7.4, and online was 5.8, with inventory turnover increasing to 6X due to preparations for Double Eleven [2] - Other brands within the outdoor segment showed impressive growth, with Descente achieving a 30% revenue increase and KOLON achieving a 70% increase in Q3. Both brands maintained a healthy discount rate of 90% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted downwards due to retail environment pressures and the impact of the integration of the Wolf Claw brand. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 793 billion, 875 billion, and 948 billion respectively, with net profits of 131 billion, 145 billion, and 160 billion [4] - The company’s current P/E ratios are projected at 15.8, 14.3, and 13.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 70,826 million, with a growth rate of 13.58%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 15,596 million, reflecting a significant increase of 52.36% [9]

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in revenue for both Anta and FILA brands in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a revenue growth of 45-50%, demonstrating resilience amid industry slowdowns and increased promotions [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strategy focused on healthy inventory levels and discount control, optimizing its structure around high-growth segments such as running, outdoor, and tennis [1] - The overall outlook remains positive, with potential benefits from new retail reforms, category upgrades, and overseas expansion, leading to a "Buy" rating [1] Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta brand revenue achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth, with expectations of low single-digit growth in offline and high single-digit growth in online channels [1] - The discount rates for offline and online channels were approximately 71% and 50%, respectively, with inventory turnover slightly above five months, indicating a healthy range [1] - Online performance is expected to gradually improve as organizational adjustments and content operations stabilize, while offline new retail formats continue to show strong performance [1] FILA Brand Performance - FILA brand revenue also saw low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with strong resilience in e-commerce expected to yield high single-digit growth [1] - The brand has solidified its position in tennis by renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and enhancing customer experience through new store formats [1] - Inventory turnover is projected to stabilize around five to six months by year-end, with discount control remaining steady [1] Other Brands Performance - Other brands reported a significant revenue growth of 45-50% in Q3 2025, with specific brands like Descente and KAILAS showing growth rates of approximately 30% and 70%, respectively [2] - The growth of other brands is attributed to high-end functional products and differentiated retail experiences, with a focus on outdoor and performance sports [2] - The company anticipates maintaining strong growth momentum in Q4 during the outdoor peak season [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to uncertainties in retail recovery and a competitive promotional environment, the company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 3.8%, 3.6%, and 4.0% to 13.03 billion, 14.63 billion, and 16.30 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 115.24 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's multi-brand and retail operational advantages [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Insights - Anta Sports' two main brands are performing steadily, while new brands continue to show high growth momentum [10] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta brand down to low single-digit growth due to a weak retail environment [10] - The multi-brand matrix of the company is seen as a rare resource with significant growth potential in the long term [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 789.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 858.1 billion RMB - FY2027E: 923.0 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts show a significant increase in FY2023 with 102.4 billion RMB, peaking at 159.2 billion RMB in FY2027 [9][20] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 62.6% in FY2023 to 63.9% in FY2027 [9] Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands showed low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a growth rate of 45-50% [10] - FILA's growth was impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but it is expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth for the year [10] - Other brands like Descente and Maia Active are showing strong growth, with Descente growing approximately 30% and Maia Active around 45% [10] Market Expansion - Anta Sports is expanding its overseas market with a target of reaching 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [10] - The company is focusing on brand building and market cultivation in strategic markets like Europe and the US [10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company emphasizes quality over quantity in its operations, maintaining a profit margin target of 20-25% for the Anta brand and around 25% for FILA [10] - The report indicates a slight decrease in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current weak retail environment [10]

Group 1: Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) - The second quarter revenue met expectations, with management reaffirming the annual guidance for 2025, indicating low single-digit, mid single-digit, and 50-55% year-on-year revenue growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands respectively [3] - Despite intense industry competition, management maintains growth guidance for all brands, expecting high single-digit, mid single-digit, and over 30% year-on-year growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands respectively [3] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be between RMB 13.41 billion and RMB 16.54 billion, with a target price of HKD 110.20 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026, maintaining a buy rating [3][4] Group 2: Junda Co., Ltd. (002865 CH) - The company expects a loss of RMB 0.94 billion to RMB 1.94 billion in Q2 2025, which is an increase from the loss of RMB 1.06 billion in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in battery prices following a surge in installations in mainland China [5] - Junda has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Turkey and Europe's largest photovoltaic module manufacturer to jointly build a solar cell production base with a capacity of up to 5GW [5] - The outlook remains positive for the company, anticipating a turnaround in performance in 2026 driven by the commencement of production in Oman and supply-side reforms [5] Group 3: E-commerce Industry - In Q2 2025, adjusted year-on-year growth for physical e-commerce retail sales was 6.3%, with categories like home appliances and cosmetics experiencing a decline in growth [7] - E-commerce platforms are increasing investments in instant retail to drive cross-selling with traditional shelf e-commerce, enhancing user engagement [7] - Major players like Alibaba and JD.com are expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, although profitability may be pressured due to increased investments in flash sales and delivery services [8] Group 4: Economic Data Insights - The consumer price index for June is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.30% in both the US and China, with the previous data being 0.10% [9] - The industrial product factory price index is anticipated to rise by 0.20% year-on-year in the US for June [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Anta Sports (02020) maintains its EPS forecast for 2025/26 at 4.81/5.42 HKD, with a current stock price corresponding to 17/15 times the 2025/26 P/E ratio, and a target price of 120.92 HKD, indicating a 35% upside potential from the current price [1] - Anta and FILA brands achieved low single-digit and mid single-digit revenue growth respectively in Q2 2025, while all other brands saw revenue growth of 50-55% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit and mid single-digit revenue growth targets for Anta and FILA brands in 2025, supported by adjustments in offline stores and online channel management, as well as a low base effect [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the mid-to-high-end outdoor segment continues to show strong growth, with Anta brand achieving low single-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, and FILA brand achieving mid single-digit revenue growth [2] - FILA's performance remains stable, with new categories like golf and tennis becoming growth highlights, and the company strategically increasing discount rates online to accelerate inventory turnover and drive revenue growth [2] - Other brands such as DESCENTE and KOLON experienced revenue growth of over 40% and 70% respectively, while the new brand Maia Active achieved over 30% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong expansion of new store types [2]