根据闪迪、芯存社公众号消息，9月以来，原厂接连调涨报价，Wafer、模组价格已小幅上涨。9月4日， NAND大厂闪迪（SanDisk）发布涨价函，面向渠道和消费者客户对闪存产品涨价10%+，主要由于北美 企业级eSSD需求高景气，以及行业供给向下一代节点、高端产品迁移，低端产品供给偏紧价格上涨。 预计近期闪存厂商有望陆续跟涨。另据报道，9月18日，继美光暂停报价后，三星也已通知大客户四季 度涨价，且三星预计NAND类eMMC/UFS协议价格涨幅5%—10%。 中信证券指出，9月以来，根据Bloomberg、CFM闪存市场，NAND Flash Wafer和部分存储模组均有不 同程度上涨，涨幅个位数。展望后续，Trend Force预计2025年四季度NAND Flash价格将上涨5%— 10%，后续数据中心eSSD涨价幅度有望超市场预期，2026年大容量QLCSSD有望出现爆发性增长。观看 待本轮结构性周期景气的持续性。在企业级SSD的需求高增下NAND涨幅有望超预期，核心推荐企业级 存储进展快、涨价受益逻辑强的公司；企业级SSD/内存配套芯片设计公司有望间接受益。 存储芯片概念30日盘中强势拉升，截至发稿， ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据TrendForce集邦咨询观察，由于消费市场需求提前在上半年被透支，下半年旺 季未能如预期发挥效应，市场原本普遍预估4Q25价格将进入盘整。然而，HDD供给短缺与过长交期， 使CSP(云端服务供应商)将储存需求快速转向QLC Enterprise SSD，短期内急单大量涌入，造成市场明显 波动。同时，SanDisk(闪迪)率先宣布调涨10%，Micron(美光)也因价格与产能配置考量暂停报价，使得 供应端氛围由保守转为积极。在此外溢效应带动下，预估NAND Flash第四季各类产品合约价将全面上 涨，平均涨幅达5-10%。 | | 3Q25E | 4Q25F | | --- | --- | --- | | Broom 15 | | | | Total NAND Flash | up 3~8% | up 5~10% | | 331 - Marce - Dixto Market Colors of | | And Callery of Con- | TrendForce集邦咨询指出，从供给面来看，NAND Flash受惠于上半年减产与优先去化库存，市场供需平 衡明显改善，原厂库存与价格压 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the NAND Flash market due to supply shortages and increased demand from cloud service providers, leading to a price increase in Q4 2025 [2][5][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025, alleviating price pressures [5] - The demand for QLC (Quad-Level Cell) SSDs is rising, driven by the need for high-capacity storage in generative AI applications [5][6] - Despite weak consumer demand and excess inventory in the channel, enterprise SSD demand is expected to grow due to increased orders from server OEMs and CSPs [6][8] Price Trends - NAND Flash contract prices are projected to rise by an average of 5-10% in Q4 2025, following a 3-8% increase in Q3 2025 [3] - SanDisk and Micron have announced price increases, indicating a shift in the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive [2][5] Product Segmentation - Client SSDs have seen a significant reduction in inventory levels, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [7] - Enterprise SSD suppliers are adjusting their production strategies to meet the growing demand for high-capacity products, particularly those exceeding 120TB [8] - eMMC/UFS products are facing weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers, which may limit price increases despite manufacturers' efforts to recover losses [9] Manufacturing Adjustments - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, which may lead to tighter supply and further price increases in Q4 2025 [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for NAND Flash prices in Q2 2025, driven by production cuts and inventory replenishment in the consumer electronics sector [5][8] - The semiconductor equipment industry is witnessing significant technological breakthroughs from domestic companies, reshaping the global market landscape [5][8] - The coal import data indicates a marginal slowdown in growth, with a notable decrease in import prices compared to the previous year [7][9] Industry Commentary - **Electronics**: The NAND Flash prices are expected to rise in Q2 2025 due to reduced production and increased demand from consumer electronics brands [5] - **Coal**: The coal import volume for January-February 2025 shows a year-on-year increase of 2%, but the average import price has decreased by 11.14% compared to the previous year [9][10] Company Analysis - **Guanghe Technology (001389.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 3.734 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 39.43%, driven by the growing demand for AI infrastructure [13][14] - **Babi Foods (605338.SH)**: The company achieved a revenue of 1.671 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 29.42%, supported by the expansion of franchise stores and large customer channels [16][17] - **Kema Technology (301611.SZ)**: The company leads the domestic market in advanced ceramic components for semiconductors, with a revenue CAGR of 18% from 2021 to 2023 [20][21] - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 121.299 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.38%, with a focus on expanding its AI and edge computing business [25][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage chip design and packaging leaders due to the anticipated price recovery in NAND Flash [8] - It recommends investing in domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies, as well as those involved in AI infrastructure [8] - For coal companies, it highlights the potential for stable high-dividend stocks and suggests monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "cooling period" of the main bull market, with short-term profit-taking seen as healthy for prolonging the main upward trend [1] Group 1: Market Movements - Evergrande Auto experienced a significant surge, with rumors of a shift towards robotics and a potential acquisition of its factory by GAC Group, although GAC has denied these claims [1] - China Merchants Bank's stock fell by 5.39%, attributed to a decline in revenue over two consecutive years and a lower-than-expected cash dividend ratio for 2024 [1] - Foreign investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, have raised their target indices for major Chinese stock indices, predicting an 8-9% increase for indices like the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index [1] Group 2: Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the widespread application of AI in China could increase annual earnings per share by 2.5% and raise fair valuations by 15-20%, potentially attracting over $200 billion in investment inflows [4] - The chemical industry is expected to see sustained price increases, particularly in pesticides, due to recent meetings addressing industry challenges and tariff impacts [6] - The small metals sector is experiencing price increases due to export controls and supply disruptions, with prices for antimony, tin, and lead rising rapidly [6] Group 3: Analyst Recommendations - Changjiang Securities is optimistic about the photovoltaic industry, expecting continued demand growth in both domestic and overseas markets, and suggests focusing on leading companies in the supply chain [7] - Dongfang Securities recommends investing in companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, particularly in the agricultural and food sectors [7] - Dongwu Securities highlights the "price increase" trend in rare strategic metals and certain chemical products, suggesting a bullish outlook for these sectors [8] Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Key stocks to watch include Aiko Solar, Longi Green Energy, and JA Solar in the photovoltaic sector, as well as companies like Huazhong CNC and Weichai Power in the diesel engine and battery sectors [9][10] - Other notable mentions include Yunnan Tin Company and China Aluminum Corporation, which are positioned well in the small metals and aluminum markets, respectively [20] Group 5: Market Performance - The A-share market saw slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04% and a total market turnover of 11,804 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in trading volume [12] - The livestock sector led gains, with significant price rebounds in poultry due to H5N1 outbreaks and recovery in the domestic chicken industry [13] - Chemical stocks also performed well, driven by rising prices in refrigerants and other chemical products [13]

➢ 风险提示 AI 大模型需求不及预期；下游终端出货不及预期；市场竞争加剧 风险；地缘政治风险；行业景气不及预期。 | + | | --- | 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 电子 2025 年 03 月 17 日 电子 存储大厂涨价，关注存储产业链 投资要点： ➢ 建议关注存储产业链重点公司： ➢ 德明利、江波龙、佰维存储、香农芯创、朗科科技、同有科技、 兆易创新、普冉股份、东芯股份、恒烁股份、聚辰股份、北京君正、 澜起科技等。 3、【华福电子】行业专题报告：智能驾驶大势所 趋，车载 CIS 蓄势待发——2025.02.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 行 业 研 究 -0.20 -0.06 0.08 0.22 0.36 0.50 3/18 5/29 8/9 10/20 12/31 3/13 电子 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 杨钟(S0210522110003) | | --- | --- | | YZ3979@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭其伟(S0210523080001) | | gqw30259@hfzq. ...